对前总统唐纳德·特朗普涉嫌非法推翻2020年大选的联邦审判定于2024年3月4日开始，即共和党总统初选“超级星期二”的前一天。然而，共和党策略师周一在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时表示，就像四项起诉和两项弹劾一样，这可能不会阻止特朗普竞选活动的压路机。
特朗普没有突击竞选，而是选择每周参加几场活动，他保留了用他的签名集会吸引人群的权力，这意味着审判可能不会严重阻碍他在超级星期二之前的竞选活动。鉴于他在早期州投票中的强大优势，策略师警告说，初选可能已经在3月4日结束。
前共和党全国委员会通讯主任道格·叶禾说，“我让关于超级星期二的讨论进入高潮。”。“但如果特朗普赢得了艾奥瓦州和新罕布什尔州，那么在选举方面，初选就没有影响，因为它在那一点上是锁定的。我认为这凸显了艾奥瓦州的重要性。”
特朗普的盟友严厉批评了审判的时间安排，美国地区法官坦尼娅·楚特坎在拒绝了特别顾问杰克·史密斯的加速时间表和特朗普律师提出的将审判推迟到2026年的请求后宣布了审判时间安排，俄亥俄州参议员J.D .万斯配音"直接干预选举"
“你要在最重要的初选日的前一天开始试验?它被称为超级星期二是有原因的。这是初选中最重要的一天。那就是你开始审判的时候?”一名支持特朗普的共和党顾问问道。
特朗普后来在社交媒体平台上发布消息称，他计划对楚特坎宣布的3月4日日期提出上诉。
尽管如此，这一日期的时机可能既有缺点也有机会——可能会在最大数量的代表参加竞选的前一天将特朗普带离竞选活动，同时也会提升对所谓“双层”司法系统的攻击，这种攻击使他的支持者如此活跃。
“他可以在上面留言，但这肯定会干扰他竞选的能力。这是一把双刃剑，”这位不愿透露姓名的顾问说。
共和党策略师淡化了3月4日的审判将给特朗普带来多大的后勤障碍——如果他甚至需要出现的话。
2023年8月24日，前总统唐纳德·特朗普抵达亚特兰大哈兹菲尔德-杰克逊国际机场时，走下飞机。
亚历克斯·布兰登/美联社
加州的初选是一个重要的超级星期二奖，预计在3月5日之前已经投出了大量的选票。由于特朗普在一定程度上依靠他的知名度，他不必像他的一些支持率较低的竞争对手那样，在初选日历的每一天都欢呼雀跃。
“加州是超级星期二，但我敢打赌，超过一半的选票将在选举日之前通过邮件提交，如果不是三分之二的选票，因为提前投票都是通过邮件提交的，”加州共和党策略师Rob Stutzman说。“他整个周末都可以竞选……那天晚上他仍会在某个地方竞选。”
“他是那种一周两次集会的人，”Stutzman补充道。“你会有这样的场景，他在5点钟走出法庭，登上飞机，7:30在宾夕法尼亚州西部有一个集会。他要做的就是在法庭上谈论他的一天，整天被迫害。他仍然会在晚上出现在集会舞台上。”
特朗普在全国和早期州民调中的领先优势表明，策略就足够了。
Stutzman说，关于特朗普是否能赢得爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州，这是一个“非常势均力敌的问题”,这两个州进行了前两场提名竞争投票有显示特朗普以两位数的领先优势领先——但如果他这样做，这位前总统可能会面临连续第三次提名的畅通无阻的道路。
“除非他以微弱优势赢得州对某人，那么可以想象，这可能会是超级星期二，但如果他赢得了前四个州，是的，你会认为他在那一点上几乎是被提名者，”Stutzman说。
但是，尽管3月4日的审判日期可能最终只是特朗普初选中的一个减速带，但大选可能完全是另外一回事。
特朗普面临四起不同的刑事案件，他在每起案件中都坚称自己是无辜的，预计将持续到2024年11月，这意味着他将不得不连续几个月在法庭和竞选活动之间来回穿梭，而他的法律斗争仍然是摇摆选民的前沿和中心，而不仅仅是共和党支持的初选选民。
“你想知道在11月获胜的政客不会被关进监狱。你不能这样说特朗普。所以那些选民，他们不爱乔·拜登，他们不认为经济在运转，但他们想给他一个机会，部分原因是他们厌倦了所有的混乱，”叶禾说。“这无助于他们回来。”
New Trump trial date is the day before Super Tuesday. Will it matter?
The federal trial over former President Donald Trump's alleged illegal efforts to overturn the 2020 election is slated to start on March 4, 2024 -- one day before "Super Tuesday" in the GOP presidential primary. Yet that, just like four indictments and two impeachments, may not stop the steamroller that is Trump's campaign, GOP strategists who spoke with ABC News said Monday.
Trump has not blitzed the campaign trail, opting instead for a few events each week, and he retains the power to pack crowds with his signature rallies, meaning the trial may not significantly impede his campaign operations ahead of Super Tuesday. And given his sturdy dominance in early state polling, strategists warn the primary might already be over by March 4 anyway.
"I get the conversation going into overdrive about Super Tuesday," said Doug Heye, a former Republican National Committee communications director. "But if Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then electorally, in the primary, there's no impact because it's locked up at that point. I think this highlights the importance of Iowa."
Trump's allies lambasted the timing of the trial, which U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan announced after rejecting both an expedited timeline from special counsel Jack Smith and a request from Trump's lawyers to delay the trial until 2026, with Ohio Sen. J.D. Vancedubbing it"Straight up election interference."
"You're starting the trial the day before the biggest primary day? It's called Super Tuesday for a reason. It's the biggest day of primaries. That's when you start the trial?" asked one GOP consultant supporting Trump.
Trump later posted on his social media platform that he plans on appealing the March 4 date announced by Chutkan.
Still, the date's timing could offer both disadvantages and opportunity -- potentially taking Trump off the campaign trail the day before the largest number of delegates is up for grabs while also elevating attacks over an alleged "two-tiered" justice system that have so animated his backers.
"He'll be able to message on it, but it will certainly interfere with his ability to campaign. It's a double-edged sword," said the consultant, who discussed the new ruling on condition of anonymity.
GOP strategists downplayed how much of a logistical hurdle the March 4 trial would pose to Trump -- if he's even required to show up at all.
California, whose primary is a major Super Tuesday prize, is expected to have a hefty chunk of its votes already cast before March 5. And with Trump riding partially on his name recognition, he doesn't necessarily have to glad-hand every day of the primary calendar like some of his lower-polling rivals must.
"California is Super Tuesday, but I bet more than half the votes will already be submitted by mail before Election Day, if not two thirds of the votes, because the early voting is all by mail," said Rob Stutzman, a California-based GOP strategist. "He'll be able to campaign all weekend…he'll still be somewhere that evening campaigning."
"He's kind of a two-rallies-a-week type of guy anyway," Stutzman added. "And you'll have scenarios where he walks out of court at five o'clock and gets on the jet, and there's a 7:30 rally in western Pennsylvania. That's what he'll do is talk about his day in court, being persecuted all day. He'll still pop up on a rally stage in the evening."
Trump's leads in national and early state polls suggest that strategy is enough.
Stutzman said it's a "very even-money question" as to whether Trump can win Iowa and New Hampshire -- the states with the first two nominating contests wherepollinghasshownTrump with double-digit leads -- but that if he does, the former president could face an unobstructed path to his third straight nomination.
"Unless he's narrowly winning states against somebody, then conceivably, it could be going to Super Tuesday, but if he wins the first four states, yeah, you would think he's all but the nominee at that point," Stutzman said.
But while the March 4 trial date may end up being a mere speed bump in the primary for Trump, the general election could be something else altogether.
Trump is facing four different criminal cases, in which he maintains his innocence in each, that are expected to extend through November 2024, meaning he'll have to bounce between a courtroom and the campaign trail for months on end, all while his legal struggles remain front and center for swing voters, not just the GOP's supportive primary electorate.
"You want to know that your politician who wins in November is not going to be in the slammer. And you can't say that about Trump. And so those voters, they don't love Joe Biden, they don't think the economy is working, but they wanted to give him a chance, and in part because they were tired of all of chaos," Heye said. "This does not help them come back."
