乔·拜登总统的工作支持率下降了19个百分点，他在处理经济和移民问题上的支持率处于职业生涯的最低点。创纪录数量的美国人表示，他们在他的总统任期内变得更糟，四分之三的人表示，他太老了，不适合再连任，唐纳德·特朗普现在看起来更好——这些都是拜登在未来的连任竞选中面临的严峻挑战。

在最新的美国广播公司新闻和华盛顿邮报民意调查中，44%的美国人表示，在拜登担任总统期间，他们的经济状况变得更糟，这是自1986年以来美国广播公司和华盛顿邮报民意调查中最高的。只有37%的人认可他的工作表现，而56%的人不认可。更少的人认可拜登在经济方面的表现，30%。

在处理美墨边境移民问题上，拜登的支持率更低，只有23%。就情绪的强度而言，20%的人总体上非常赞同他的工作，而45%的人非常不赞同。74%的人认为他太老了，不适合连任，自5月以来上升了6个百分点。认为特朗普太老的观点也有所上升，但在这项由美国广播公司(ABC)制作的民意调查中，这一比例为50%兰格研究协会.

ABC新闻/华盛顿邮报

这是对拜登的悲观情绪，如果政府在月底关闭，40%的人说他们主要归咎于他和国会的民主党人，而33%的人认为是国会的共和党人——即使考虑到预算僵局背后的共和党内斗。

法宝

就特朗普而言，回顾过去，他已经有所改善。当他在2021年1月不情愿地离任时，38%的人认可他作为总统的工作，基本上与拜登现在的支持率相同。但目前，回头看，48%的人表示他们认可特朗普在任时的表现——与他担任总统时的巅峰时期相当。基本上同样多的人(49%)现在不赞成，低于他离开白宫时的60%。

与拜登的比较可能是一个因素。56%的美国人不赞成拜登在任期间的工作，其中75%的人说，回头看，他们赞成特朗普。

同样值得注意的是，特朗普在他的追溯性工作支持率中平分秋色，尽管大多数美国人继续拒绝他关于2020年大选被偷走的说法。相反，60%的美国人认为拜登合法获胜，另有12%的人没有意见;29%的人认为拜登没有合法获胜。

选举

这些观点会影响早期的选举偏好。62%的民主党人和倾向于民主党的独立人士表示，该党应该在2024年选择拜登以外的人作为提名人;仅仅是拜登的三分之一。对不同候选人的期望在数字上很高，但也与过去一年的结果一致(56%至58%)。

谁，如果不是拜登，是一个开放的问题。在一个开放式问题中，8%的人表示喜欢卡玛拉·哈里斯，8%的人喜欢伯尼·桑德斯，7%的人喜欢小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪，其他人的提及率都在低个位数。“其他人”只占20%。

特朗普拥有更广泛的党内支持;54%的共和党人和倾向于共和党的独立人士支持他获得共和党提名，这与之前的结果相似，远远领先于他的对手。罗恩·德桑蒂斯的支持率为15%，相比之下，5月份的支持率为25%(使用了略有不同的提问方式)。其他都是个位数。

ABC新闻/华盛顿邮报

在一场假设的2024年11月的对决中，特朗普的支持率为51%，拜登为42%，比美国广播公司/邮报2月份的民意调查高出3个百分点，拜登则下降了2个百分点，这些变化在统计上并不显著。

与最近5月份的ABC/Post民意调查相比，变化甚至更小，当时的支持率为49-42%(再次使用不同但可比较的问题措辞)。尽管如此，随着特朗普略微超过50%，以及其他民调显示竞争更加激烈，密切关注是有必要的。

因素

多种因素可能在起作用。拜登糟糕的表现评级、经济不满的程度、移民危机和对他年龄的质疑显然都与此有关。所有这些都是最近大量新闻报道的主题，集中在对总统不利的公共话语上。与此同时，特朗普利用他的刑事起诉，通过声称政治迫害来巩固他的基础，并享受着对他的共和党领跑者地位的积极报道。

问题顺序可能是一个因素。按照ABC/Post在选举周期的早期阶段进行民意调查的惯例，这项调查首先询问了拜登和特朗普的表现、经济情绪和其他一些问题(乌克兰援助、堕胎和政府关门)，然后才是候选人的偏好。这是因为在迄今为止的选举中，这些问题比候选人支持更有关系。由于许多结果对拜登不利，因此他在2024年的支持度落后。尽管如此，这些情绪是真实的，在最近的调查中一直是负面的，并清楚地标志着拜登未来的挑战。

另一个可能的因素是信息发送。选举前14个月的一个假设的投票偏好问题没有任何预测性;这最好被视为公众表达对候选人喜欢或不喜欢的机会。拜登普遍不受欢迎，对他是否适合连任的质疑也很多;不管一年多后他们会在哪里结束，今天相当多的美国人都在抓住机会表达他们的不满。

传递信息的一个例子是，在认为美国宪法应该禁止特朗普再次担任总统的人中，18%的人也支持他在2024年取代拜登。这类人似乎是在表达对拜登的反感，而不是对特朗普的支持。

就抽样而言，本次调查采用了美国广播公司/邮报长期以来的民意调查方式方法学。人口统计结果是典型的。党派偏好也是如此;25%的受访者认为自己是民主党人，25%是共和党人，42%是无党派人士。41%是民主党人或倾向于民主党的无党派人士;45%是共和党人或倾向于共和党，与今年一致。

此外，表示将在2020年投票的调查受访者报告称，拜登的支持率为50-46%，非常接近实际结果51-47%。

组

在那些报告已登记投票的人中，特朗普-拜登的结果基本相同，为52-42%。一些民调分析人士关注这一群体，尽管还有一年多的时间来注册，这是一项政治活动花费巨大精力的活动。我们在这个阶段关注普通人群，让所有成年人都有发言权，不管他们目前的注册状态如何。

尽管公众对拜登普遍不满，但一些团体层面的结果还是值得注意的。其中包括:

拜登在种族和族裔少数群体成员中的支持率仅为50%(与5月份相同)，而特朗普在今年美国广播公司/邮报的民调中，在这一群体中的支持率从32%小幅上升至39%至43%。在拉美裔中，令人惊讶的是50-44%，特朗普-拜登，尽管样本很少。

在18至35岁的人群中，特朗普以53%至38%的微弱优势领先(在这个样本量下，优势微乎其微)。不过，这基本上与5月份的情况相符，特朗普在2月份也在这一群体中以50%比43%的比例领先(尽管不是很明显)。

特朗普在男性中的支持率比5月份上升了7个百分点，现在是61%对34%对拜登。这是由于特朗普在未受过大学教育的白人男性中的支持率上升了15个百分点，达到79%，这是他的主要群体。

美国人继续反对美国最高法院终止堕胎宪法权利的裁决，64%对30%。该决定的批评者更喜欢拜登而不是特朗普，比例为57-35%。裁决的支持者支持特朗普的比例要高得多，为81-16%。

非西班牙裔白人天主教徒的偏好一直在波动，这通常是一个有争议的群体。他们在2月份以63-33%的比例支持特朗普超过拜登;这在5月份缩减到一个死热;现在又回到了66-32%。

在报告2020年投票给特朗普的人中，96%的人现在仍然支持他。然而，拜登在2020年保留的支持者较少，为88%。其余人中，7%的人现在支持特朗普(高于2月份的3%)，其余人尚未决定，支持另一位候选人或不打算参加。

在表示2020年不投票的人中，特朗普目前有57-32%的优势。5月份这一比例为52-31%。

在反对拜登提名的62%的民主党人和倾向于民主党的独立人士中，16%的人说他们会投票给特朗普而不是拜登。

候选人偏好和经济情绪之间的关系非常密切。44%的美国人表示，在拜登担任总统期间，他们的经济状况变得更糟，特朗普以84%比12%的优势领先。在那些经济状况相同的人中间——没有更糟，也没有更好——这一比例翻转到66%—25 %,拜登-特朗普，在相对较少的更好的人中间也是类似的。

经济

ABC新闻/华盛顿邮报

候选人偏好的结果也因国民经济的评级而有所不同——74%的人对国民经济的总体评级为负面，存在明显的党派差异。该调查探究了这种情绪的细节，发现了两个主要的刺激因素:食品价格，91%的人持负面评价(不太好或不太差);而对天然气和能源价格的负面评价高达87%。

并不是说其他的评价都很乐观:75%的人对普通美国人的收入持负面评价。失业率为57%，要低得多，但考虑到公众的悲观情绪，仍然是负数。

方法学

这项ABC新闻/华盛顿邮报民意调查是在2023年9月15日至20日通过座机和手机以英语和西班牙语在1006名成年人的随机全国样本中进行的。党派分歧是25-25-42%，民主党-共和党-无党派。结果的误差为抽样误差3.5个百分点，包括设计效果。抽样误差并不是民意测验中差异的唯一来源。

该调查由ABC新闻制作兰格研究协会，由马里兰州洛克维尔的Abt Associates进行采样和数据收集。请查看调查方法的详细信息这里.

 

Trump edges out Biden 51-42 in head-to-head matchup: POLL

 

President Joe Biden's job approval rating is 19 points underwater, his ratings for handling the economy and immigration are at career lows. A record number of Americans say they've become worse off under his presidency, three-quarters say he's too old for another term and Donald Trump is looking better in retrospect -- all severe challenges for Biden in his reelection campaign ahead.

Forty-four percent of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say they've gotten worse off financially under Biden's presidency, the most for any president in ABC/Post polls since 1986. Just 37% approve of his job performance, while 56% disapprove. Still fewer approve of Biden's performance on the economy, 30%.

On handling immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border, Biden's rating is even lower, with 23% approval. In terms of intensity of sentiment, 20% strongly approve of his work overall, while 45% strongly disapprove. And the 74% who say he's too old for a second term is up 6 percentage points since May. Views that Trump is too old also are up, but to 50% in this poll, produced for ABC byLanger Research Associates.

Such is down-on-Biden sentiment that if a government shutdown occurs at month's end, 40% say they'd chiefly blame him and the Democrats in Congress, versus 33% who'd pin it on the Republicans in Congress -- even given the GOP infighting behind the budget impasse.

Trump

Trump, for his part, has improved in retrospect. When he reluctantly left office in January 2021, 38% approved of his work as president, essentially the same as Biden's rating now. But currently, looking back, 48% say they approve of Trump's performance when he was in office -- matching his peak as president. Essentially as many -- 49% -- now disapprove, down from 60% when he left the White House.

Comparison with Biden may be a factor. Among the 56% of Americans who disapprove of Biden's work in office, a wide 75% say that, looking back, they approve of Trump.

It's also notable that Trump has an even split in his retrospective job approval rating even as most Americans continue to reject his assertion that the 2020 election was stolen from him. Sixty percent of Americans instead say Biden legitimately won, and an additional 12% have no opinion; 29% think Biden did not win legitimately.

Election

These views play into early-stage election preferences. A remarkable 62% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say the party should pick someone other than Biden as its nominee in 2024; just a third back Biden. Desire for a different candidate is at a numerical high, but also consistent with past results (56 to 58%) the past year.

Who, if not Biden, is an open question. In an open-ended question, 8% express a preference for Kamala Harris, 8% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with other mentions in the low single digits. Just "someone else" comes in at 20%.

Trump has far broader intraparty support; 54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favor him for the GOP nomination, again similar to previous results, and well ahead of his opposition. Ron DeSantis has 15% support, compared with 25% (using a slightly different question approach) in May. All others are in single digits.

Head-to-head in a hypothetical November 2024 matchup, Trump has 51% support while Biden has 42% -- numerically up 3 points for Trump and down 2 points for Biden from an ABC/Post poll in February, shifts that are not statistically significant.

There's even less change from the most recent ABC/Post poll in May, which had the race at 49-42% (again with a different, but comparable, question wording). Still, with Trump inching over 50% -- and other polls showing a closer contest -- a close look is warranted.

Factors

A variety of factors may be at play. Biden's poor performance ratings, the extent of economic discontent, the immigration crisis and doubts about his age clearly are relevant. All have been the subject of extensive recent news coverage, focusing public discourse on negatives for the president. Trump, meanwhile, has used his criminal indictments to bolster his base through claims of political persecution and enjoys positive coverage of his GOP frontrunner status.

Question order can be a factor. As is customary for ABC/Post polls at this still-early stage of an election cycle, this survey asked first about Biden and Trump's performance, economic sentiment and a handful of other issues (Ukraine aid, abortion and a government shutdown) before candidate preferences. That's because these questions are more germane than candidate support in an election so far off. Since many results are negative toward Biden, it follows that he's lagging in 2024 support. Nonetheless, those sentiments are real, have been consistently negative in recent surveys and clearly mark Biden's challenges ahead.

Another possible factor is message-sending. A hypothetical vote-preference question 14 months before an election is predictive of nothing; it's best seen as an opportunity for the public to express its like or dislike of the candidates. Biden is broadly unpopular and doubts about his suitability for a second term are extensive; wherever they end up in more than a year, a substantial number of Americans today are taking the opportunity to express their displeasure.

In one example of message-sending, among people who say Trump should be prohibited by the U.S. Constitution from serving again as president, 18% also support him over Biden for 2024. Such people seem to be expressing their antipathy toward Biden, not their support for Trump.

In terms of sampling, this survey was conducted using the ABC/Post poll's longstandingmethodology. Demographic results are typical. So are partisan preferences; 25% of respondents identify themselves as Democrats, 25% as Republicans and 42% as independents. Forty-one percent are Democrats or independents who lean toward the Democratic Party; 45% are Republicans or lean toward the GOP, consistent this year.

Additionally, survey respondents who say they voted in 2020 report having supported Biden over Trump by 50-46%, very close to the actual outcome, 51-47%.

Groups

Trump-Biden results are essentially identical among those who report being registered to vote, 52-42%. Some polling analysts focus on this group, even though there's more than a year to register, an activity on which political campaigns expend great effort. We focus on the general population at this stage to give all adults a voice, regardless of their current registration status.

Even with the public's general discontent with Biden, some group-level results are notable. Among them:

Biden has just 50% support from members of racial and ethnic minority groups (the same as in May), while Trump has inched up from 32 to 39 to 43% support in this group in this year's ABC/Post polls. Among Hispanics, it's a surprising 50-44%, Trump-Biden, albeit with a small sample.

Among 18- to 35-year-olds, Trump has a slight 53-38% advantage (marginally significant at this sample size). Still, that essentially matches what it was in May, and Trump also was numerically ahead in this group (albeit not significantly) by 50-43% in February.

Trump has gained 7 points from May among men, now a 61-34% result against Biden. That's led by a 15-point gain for Trump among non-college-educated white men, a mainstay group for him, to 79% support.

Americans continue to oppose the U.S. Supreme Court ruling ending the constitutional right to an abortion, 64-30%. Biden is preferred to Trump by critics of that decision by 57-35%. Supporters of the ruling favor Trump by a much wider 81-16%.

Preferences have fluctuated among non-Hispanic white Catholics, often a contested group. They supported Trump over Biden by 63-33% in February; this shrank to a dead heat in May; and it's back to 66-32% now.

Among people who reported having voted for Trump in 2020, 96% still support him now. Biden, though, retains fewer of his 2020 supporters, 88%. Of the rest, 7% support Trump now (up from 3% in February), with the rest undecided, supporting another candidate or not planning to participate.

Among people who say they did not vote in 2020, Trump has a 57-32% advantage currently. This was 52-31% in May.

Among the 62% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who oppose Biden for the nomination, 16% say they'd vote for Trump over Biden.

The relationship between candidate preference and economic sentiment is strong. Among the 44% of Americans who say they've gotten worse off financially under Biden's presidency, Trump has an 84-12% advantage. Among those who are in the same shape financially -- not worse, but also not better off -- it flips to 66-25%, Biden-Trump, and is similar among the comparatively few who are better off.

The economy

Candidate-preference results also are differentiated by ratings of the national economy -- which 74% overall rate negatively, with sharp partisan differences. The poll probed for details on that sentiment, finding two major irritants: food prices, rated negatively (as not so good or poor) by 91%; and gas and energy prices, rated negatively by 87%.

Not that other ratings are rosy: Seventy-five percent rate the incomes of average Americans negatively. It's much lower for the unemployment rate, 57% -- but still negative, given the dark public mood.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 15-20, 2023, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults. Partisan divisions are 25-25-42%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin ofsampling errorof 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.

The survey was produced for ABC News byLanger Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Md. See details on the survey’s methodologyhere.