华盛顿-哈马斯武装分子对以色列的袭击及其在耶路撒冷引发的大规模报复,将美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)推入了一场中东危机,这场危机有可能扩大为一场更广泛的冲突,并让他抵挡住了共和党总统竞选对手的批评,即他的政府的政策导致了这一时刻。
暴力持续和扩大的可能性可能会考验拜登在国际舞台和国内的领导能力,因为他试图在展示对以色列的坚定支持和促进一触即发的中东地区的更广泛和平之间航行,在那里,同情的武装分子很快就大声称赞哈马斯的行动。双方都有数百人丧生,美国正试图确定死者和被俘者中是否有美国人。
黎巴嫩真主党组织对这次袭击表示欢迎,认为这是对“以色列罪行”的回应这个伊朗支持的组织与哈马斯有着相似的目标,即摧毁以色列国家,周日向三个以色列阵地发射了火箭和炮弹,引起了以色列军方武装无人机的回应。伊朗最高领袖的一名高级顾问称赞了哈马斯的行动,称哈马斯已经为可能的长期战斗做好了准备。
几位2024年共和党总统竞选人立即试图将部分责任归咎于拜登。他们试图将他最近决定释放60亿美元被冻结的伊朗资金,以换取释放五名被拘留在伊朗的美国人与周六的海陆空综合袭击联系起来。白宫对共和党的批评进行了激烈的反击,指出上个月在囚犯交换中解冻的资金尚未被伊朗花费,只能用于人道主义需求。
伊朗在历史上与巴勒斯坦哈马斯和真主党都保持着密切的联系。
美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯在周日新闻节目的采访中说,“如果没有伊朗多年来的支持,哈马斯就不会像现在这样存在,”但他承认,“我们还没有看到伊朗指挥或策划了这次袭击的证据。”
据以色列官员称,拜登周日与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡进行了交谈。拜登周六在白宫发表讲话,称这些袭击“不合情理”,并承诺他的政府将确保以色列拥有“自卫所需的东西”
拜登说:“让我尽可能清楚地表明这一点:现在不是任何敌视以色列的政党利用这些袭击寻求优势的时候。”
这次袭击只是增加了新的复杂性,因为他的政府和伊朗在德黑兰的核项目上陷入了纠纷。伊朗表示,该项目是和平的,但是它现在比以往任何时候都更接近武器级别的浓缩铀。尽管如此,奥巴马政府并没有放弃恢复一项协议的希望,该协议是在奥巴马政府期间达成的,在特朗普白宫期间被取消,该协议放松了对伊朗的制裁,以换取对其核计划的限制。
拜登政府官员也一直在努力促成以色列和最强大、最富裕的阿拉伯国家沙特阿拉伯之间的关系正常化。这样的协议有可能重塑该地区,并以历史性的方式提升以色列的地位。
但促成这样一项协议已经被视为一个沉重的负担,因为沙特王国已经表示,在解决数十年的以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突之前,它不会正式承认以色列。新的冲突给拜登的野心增加了一个巨大的新路障。
“毫不奇怪,那些反对沙特阿拉伯和以色列关系正常化的人,更广泛地说,反对以色列与该地区内外国家关系正常化的人——谁反对?真主党、哈马斯和伊朗,”布林肯说。“因此,在某种程度上,这是为了试图破坏正在做出的努力,这很有意义。”
沙特阿拉伯外交部在一份声明中没有谴责哈马斯的袭击,但指出,沙特王国“一再警告,由于持续占领、剥夺巴勒斯坦人民的合法权利以及对其神圣性的反复系统性挑衅,局势存在危险。”
华盛顿智库捍卫民主基金会(Foundation for Defense of Democracies)的分析师乔纳森·尚泽(Jonathan Schanzer)表示,拜登在让以色列的批评者,特别是他的民主党同僚陷入困境方面做得“很好”,而内塔尼亚胡则在2021年的一场为期11天的战争中,试图实现他针对哈马斯的军事目标。这一次可能会更加艰难。
“战场上会有经常发生的错误,没有哪个军队是完美的。那时,我认为总统将会受到来自左翼的攻击。
2024年共和党领域的一些人很快就将哈马斯的袭击直接归咎于拜登。
前总统唐纳德·特朗普指责拜登领导下的美国在国际舞台上被视为“软弱和无效”,为敌视以色列敞开了大门。佛罗里达州州长。罗恩·德桑蒂斯指责拜登“对伊朗采取宽松的政策”,并“帮助他们中饱私囊”南卡罗来纳州参议员蒂姆·斯科特(Tim Scott)声称,这次袭击是“拜登60亿美元赎金支付的工作”,指的是囚犯交易。
“有些人提出这种错误的说法,他们要么是被误导了,要么是在误导。无论哪种方式,都是错误的,”布林肯在广播采访中说,称这是“非常不幸的,当这么多人丧生,以色列仍然受到攻击时,有人在玩弄政治。”
当被问及伊朗可能会将这笔资金(目前存在卡塔尔银行)用于购买食品、药品、医疗用品和农产品,并可能将其他资金转移给哈马斯或其他代理人的说法时,布林肯说,根据法律,这些资产可以用于人道主义目的。但他也表示,伊朗“不幸地总是将资金用于支持恐怖主义,支持像哈马斯这样的组织。”
据一名熟悉会议情况的国会助手称,周六在与参议院外交关系委员会工作人员的简报中,政府官员表示,美国已经“通过对话者”警告伊朗,直接参与加沙局势将危及美国未来可能考虑与伊斯兰共和国采取的任何举措。
尽管代理副国务卿维多利亚·纽兰和美国负责中东事务的最高外交官巴巴拉·利夫都与黎巴嫩官员就黎巴嫩局势进行了交谈,但官员们没有详细说明对话方是谁,也没有说明未来会有哪些举措受到威胁。一些黎巴嫩官员与伊朗保持联系,伊朗支持该国的激进组织真主党。
共和党人对政府的另一个批评是,它在上任后不久就决定取消特朗普时代对巴勒斯坦人(包括加沙平民)的援助禁令,这可能有助于为行动提供资金。
政府官员断然拒绝了这一点,称他们帮助加沙和其他地方的巴勒斯坦平民的努力不涉及哈马斯可以使用或转移的资金。
Hamas attack on Israel thrusts Biden into Mideast crisis and has him fending off GOP criticism
WASHINGTON --The Hamas militant attack on Israel and the massive retaliation it provoked from Jerusalem have thrust President Joe Biden into a Middle East crisis that risks expanding into a broader conflict and has left him fending off criticism from GOP presidential rivals that his administration's policies led to this moment.
The potential for prolonged and expanding violence could test Biden's leadership on both the world stage and at home as he tries to navigate between demonstrating unflinching support for Israel and fostering a broader peace in the combustible Mideast, where sympathetic militants were quick to loudly praise the action by Hamas. Hundreds have been killed on both sides, and the U.S. was trying to determine whether there were Americans among the dead and those taken captive.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah group welcomed the attack as a response to “Israeli crimes.” The Iran-backed group, which holds similar goals as Hamas for the destruction of the Israeli state, fired rockets and shells on Sunday at three Israeli positions, drawing a response from Israel’s military with armed drones. A senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader lauded the operation by Hamas, which said it was ready for a potentially long fight.
Several 2024 Republican presidential contenders immediately tried to pin a portion of the blame on Biden. They sought to tie his recent decision to release $6 billion in blocked Iranian funds in exchange for freeing five Americans who had been detained in Iran to Saturday's complex attack by air, land and sea. The White House pushed back fiercely against the GOP criticism, noting that the money unfrozen last month in the prisoner swap has yet to be spent by Iran and can only be used for humanitarian needs.
Iran has historically maintained strong ties with both Palestinian Hamas and Hezbollah.
“Hamas wouldn't be around in the way that it is without the support that it's received from Iran over the years,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during interviews on the Sunday news shows, but he acknowledged that “we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack.”
Biden spoke on Sunday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Israeli officials. In remarks at the White House on Saturday, Biden called the attacks “unconscionable” and pledged his administration would ensure Israel has “what it needs to defend itself.”
“Let me say this as clearly as I can: This is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage,” Biden said.
The attack only adds new complications as his administration and Iran are locked in disputes over Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran says the program is peaceful, but it now enriches uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels. Still, the administration hasn't given up hope on reviving a deal brokered during the Obama administration — and scrapped during the Trump White House — that eased sanctions on Iran in return for curbs to its nuclear program.
Biden administration officials have also been working on brokering a normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the most powerful and wealthy Arab state. Such a deal has the potential to reshape the region and boost Israel’s standing in historic ways.
But brokering such a deal was already seen as a heavy lift as the kingdom has said it won’t officially recognize Israel before a resolution to the decadeslong Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The new conflict adds an enormous new roadblock to Biden’s ambitions.
“It’s no surprise that those opposed to the efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and more broadly to normalize Israel’s relations with countries throughout the region and beyond –- who opposes it? Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran,” Blinken said. “So to the extent that this was designed to try to derail the efforts that were being made, that speaks volumes.”
Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry in a statement did not condemn the Hamas attack, but noted the kingdom’s “repeated warnings of the dangers … of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities.”
Jonathan Schanzer, an analyst at the Washington think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Biden did “a good job” at keeping Israel's critics, particularly his fellow Democrats, at bay while Netanyahu sought to achieve his military objectives against Hamas during their last major conflict, an 11-day war in 2021. It will likely be tougher this time around.
“There will be mistakes that often happen on the battlefield, no military is perfect. That’s when I think the president will come under fire from his left flank," Schanzer said.
Some in the 2024 Republican field were quick to place blame squarely on Biden for the Hamas assault.
Former PresidentDonald Trumpcharged that the U.S. is perceived as being “weak and ineffective” on the global stage under Biden, opening the door to hostility against Israel. Florida Gov.Ron DeSantisaccused Biden of “policies that have gone easy on Iran” and have “helped to fill their coffers." And South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott alleged the attack was “the Biden $6 billion ransom payment at work,” a reference to the prisoner deal.
“Some who are advancing this false narrative, they’re either misinformed or they’re misinforming. And either way, it’s wrong,” Blinken said in the broadcast interviews, calling it “deeply unfortunate that some are playing politics when so many lives have been lost and Israel remains under attack.”
Asked about the argument that Iran, in anticipation of using the money — now held in Qatari banks — for food, medicine, medical supplies and agricultural products, may have diverted other funds to Hamas or other proxies, Blinken said those assets have been available to Tehran, under the law, for humanitarian purposes. But he also said Iran “has unfortunately always used and focused its funds on supporting terrorism, on supporting groups like Hamas.”
In a briefing with Senate Foreign Relations Committee staff on Saturday, administration officials said the U.S. had warned Iran “through interlocutors” that direct involvement in the Gaza situation would imperil any future initiatives the U.S. might consider with the Islamic Republic, according to a congressional aide familiar with the session.
The officials did not elaborate on who the interlocutors were or what future initiatives would be in jeopardy, although acting deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the top U.S. diplomat for the Mideast, Barbara Leaf, both spoke to officials in Lebanon about the situation. Some Lebanese officials maintain contact with Iran, which supports the militant group Hezbollah in the country.
Another point of criticism leveled at the administration by Republicans is that its decision shortly after taking office to reverse a Trump-era ban on assistance to the Palestinians, including civilians in Gaza, may have helped fund the operation.
Administration officials roundly rejected this, saying their efforts to help Palestinian civilians in Gaza and elsewhere do not involve money that Hamas can use or divert.