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在哈马斯袭击之前,美国对以色列和巴勒斯坦的态度已经沿着党派路线转变

2023-10-12 09:59 -ABC  -  196514

哈马斯武装分子发动了一场对以色列的野蛮、广泛的恐怖袭击在周末,造成至少1200人死亡,以色列作为回应,发动了战争美国总统乔·拜登和其他高级政府官员承诺向以色列提供援助。

这凸显了美国对以色列的持续支持。盖洛普民意测验最近几十年显示与巴勒斯坦主要管理机构之一的巴勒斯坦权力机构相比,大多数成年人仍然非常或大部分支持以色列。

然而,根据近在2月的盖洛普调查,在哈马斯袭击前几个月,美国人对以色列和巴勒斯坦的看法一直在转变,对这两个问题的看法在很大程度上按党派划分。

美国人总体上仍然支持以色列,在2月份的盖洛普调查中,54%的人说他们更同情以色列人,而31%的人说他们更同情巴勒斯坦人。

自2001年以来,在盖洛普的民意调查中,以色列的支持率一直相对稳定,而巴勒斯坦的支持率从2001年的16%上升。

表示同情以色列人和巴勒斯坦人或不确定的美国人的比例从2001年的33%下降到今年早些时候的15%。

这场运动大部分似乎是由民主党推动的:2001年,51%的民主党人告诉盖洛普,他们更同情以色列人,而16%的人说他们更同情巴勒斯坦人。到2023年,这些数字发生了逆转,38%的民主党人表示他们更同情以色列人,49%的人表示他们更同情巴勒斯坦人。

今年一月也标志着至少自2001年以来第一次有更多的民主党人说他们更同情巴勒斯坦人,而不是以色列人,49-38%。尽管如此,3月份仍有56%的民主党人表示,他们对以色列非常或基本上持肯定态度。

PHOTO: Israeli soldiers stand by an engine from a hang glider that Palestinian militants used a few days earlier in an attack on this kibbutz near the border with Gaza, in Kfar Gaza, Israel, Oct. 10, 2023.

2023年10月10日,以色列士兵袖手旁观从一架悬挂式滑翔机上取下一个引擎,这架滑翔机是巴勒斯坦武装分子几天前在袭击加沙边境附近的集体农场时使用的。

阿米尔·利维/盖蒂图片社

与此同时,共和党人扩大了对以色列的支持。2001年,59%的共和党人说他们更同情以色列人,14%的人说他们更同情巴勒斯坦人。到2023年,更同情以色列人的共和党人的比例跃升至78%,更同情巴勒斯坦人的共和党人的比例略有下降,降至11%。

今年3月,82%的共和党人表示,他们对以色列非常或基本上有好感。

独立人士在很大程度上分享了这一差异。2001年,44%的人告诉盖洛普,他们更同情以色列人,19%的人说他们更同情巴勒斯坦人。二十年后的2023年,49%的独立选民表示他们更同情以色列人,而32%的人表示他们更同情巴勒斯坦人。

三月份,67%的无党派人士表示,他们对以色列有非常或大部分的好感。

专家告诉ABC新闻,公众意见的转变有几种可能的解释,尽管尚不清楚这种趋势在哈马斯周末袭击以色列后是否会继续。

自冲突开始以来,除了以色列的死伤人数,巴勒斯坦官员表示,在哈马斯控制的巴勒斯坦领土加沙,已有1000多人丧生。

中东研究所(Middle East Institute)高级研究员、2004年至2009年在拉马拉担任巴勒斯坦领导层与以色列永久地位谈判顾问的哈立德·埃尔金迪(Khaled Elgindy)认为,民主党人对以色列的支持度下降,部分原因是人们越来越意识到巴勒斯坦人在被以色列占领的西岸和加沙地带的恶劣生活条件。

埃尔金迪还指出,在过去几轮战斗中,以色列人和巴勒斯坦人的伤亡率不成比例。到目前为止,这种模式在最近一次哈马斯恐怖袭击中发生了急剧逆转。

埃尔金迪说,党派偏见是促使民主党人转变同情态度的另一个因素:“多年来,以色列政治越来越右倾。”

他说,在哈马斯袭击之前,以色列国家政府已经接受了“对巴勒斯坦人更具侵略性的政策”,并在巴勒斯坦领土上为以色列人建立了“更多的定居点”,这被联合国认为是非法的

在哈马斯袭击之前,这样的定居点也受到了拜登政府官员的批评。

专家还表示,民主党人观点的转变与2020年以来的一个主要国内问题有关——由黑人的命也是命等运动引发的全国性抗议和关于种族不平等的辩论——以及这可能如何在更广泛的范围内重塑人们的态度。

然而,“反对以色列的政策并不意味着反对以色列本身,”约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院中东研究副教授拉斐尔·a·德尔·萨托在一封电子邮件中告诉美国广播公司新闻。

一名专家说,共和党人越来越支持以色列,部分原因是福音派在美国党内的影响力越来越大。与此同时,越来越少的民主党人认为自己与有组织的宗教有关联。

前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)是共和党内最受欢迎的人物之一,他试图通过与以色列国家政府的密切联盟来定义他在任期间的外交政策记录。

“福音派基督徒是共和党内的一个大集团。他们出于神学和宗教原因非常支持以色列,”埃尔金迪说,并补充说,“我认为这种趋势有一个世俗的版本。”

Before Hamas attack, US attitudes on Israel and Palestinians had shifted along party lines: Polling

Hamas' militants launched abrutal, expansive terror attack on Israelover the weekend, killing at least 1,200 people, and Israelwent to war in response, with President Joe Biden and other top administration officials pledging aid to the Israelis.

That underlines the U.S.'s continued support for Israel. Gallup pollingin recent decades showsthat adults broadly remain very or mostly favorable to Israel compared with the Palestinian Authority, one of the Palestinians' major governing bodies.

Still, according to Gallup surveys as recently as February -- months before the Hamas attack -- Americans' opinions had been shifting on Israel and the Palestinians, with thoughts on the two largely divided along party lines.

Americans overall also remain supportive of Israel, with 54% in the February Gallup survey saying their sympathies lay more with Israelis, while 31% said their sympathies lay more with the Palestinians.

Support for Israel in Gallup's polls, all well before Hamas struck, has remained relatively constant since 2001, while support for Palestinians had risen from 16% in 2001.

The percentage of Americans who said their sympathies were with both Israelis and Palestinians or were unsure dropped from 33% in 2001 to 15% earlier this year.

Much of the movement appeared to be driven by Democrats: In 2001, 51% of Democrats told Gallup their sympathies lay more with Israelis, while 16% said their sympathies were more with Palestinians. Those numbers flipped by 2023, with 38% of Democrats saying their sympathies were more with Israelis and 49% saying their sympathies lay more with Palestinians.

January of this year also marked the first time since at least 2001 that more Democrats said their sympathies lay more with Palestinians than with Israelis, 49-38%. Still, 56% of Democrats in March said they had a very or mostly favorable view of Israel.

Republicans, meanwhile, expanded their support for Israel. Fifty-nine percent of Republicans in 2001 said their sympathies lay more with Israelis, and 14% said their sympathies lay more with Palestinians. The percentage of Republicans whose sympathies were more with Israelis jumped to 78% by 2023, with the percentage of Republicans whose sympathies were more with Palestinians falling slightly, to 11%.

Eighty-two percent of Republicans in March said they had a very or mostly favorable view of Israel.

Independents largely split the difference. Forty-four percent in 2001 told Gallup their sympathies lay more with Israelis, and 19% said their sympathies lay more with Palestinians. Two decades later, in 2023, 49% of independents said their sympathies lay more with Israelis, while 32% said their sympathies lied more with Palestinians.

Sixty-seven percent of independents in March said they had a very or mostly favorable view of Israel.

Experts told ABC News that there are several possible explanations for the public opinion shift, though it's unclear if the trend will continue after Hamas' assault on Israel over the weekend.

Since the conflict began, in addition to the dead and wounded in Israel, Palestinian officials said that more than 1,000 people have been killed in Gaza, the Palestinian territory that Hamas controls.

Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a former adviser to the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah on permanent status negotiations with Israel from 2004 to 2009, believes Democrats' drop in support for Israel is due in part to increased awareness of Palestinians' often dire living conditions in the West Bank, which is occupied by Israel, and the Gaza Strip.

Elgindy also pointed to the disproportionate casualty rates between Israelis and Palestinians in past rounds of fighting -- a pattern so far sharply reversed in the latest Hamas terror attack.

Partisanship is another factor driving Democrats shifting sympathies, Elgindy said: "Israeli politics have shifted ever more to the right over the years."

He said that Israel's national government before the Hamas attack had embraced "more aggressive policies toward Palestinians" and "more settlements" for Israelis in Palestinian territory, which is considered illegal by the U.N.

Before the Hamas attack, such settlements had also been criticized by Biden administration officials.

Experts also suggested that Democrats' shift in opinion was linked to a major domestic issue since 2020 -- the nationwide protests and debate over racial inequality, fueled by movements like Black Lives Matter -- and how that could have reshaped attitudes more broadly.

Still, "being against Israeli policies does not mean to be against Israel per se," Raffaella A. Del Sarto, an associate professor of Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, told ABC News in an email.

Republicans have grown increasingly supportive of Israel in part, one of the experts said, because evangelicals have become more influential within the party in the U.S. At the same time, fewer Democrats identify as affiliated with an organized religion.

Former President Donald Trump, among the most popular figures in the GOP, sought to define his foreign policy record while in office through his close alliance with Israel's national government.

"Evangelical Christians are a big bloc within the Republican Party base. And they're quite supportive of Israel for theological and religious reasons," Elgindy said, adding, "I think there's a secular version of that trend."

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