路易斯安那无疑是一个红色州。但在2015年和2019年，它选举并连任民主党州长约翰·贝尔·爱德华兹(John Bel Edwards)。结果，路易斯安那州——前总统唐纳德·特朗普领先19个百分点2020年——是第二个最倾向于共和党的州，有一位民主党州长，仅次于肯塔基州。然而，周六，路易斯安那州将前往投票站，可能会决定他们的下一任州长，看起来红色的浪潮可能会席卷蓝色的海湾。
这是因为共和党州检察长杰夫·兰德里是接替爱德华兹的热门人选，他是有任期限制的。尽管如此，兰德里将不得不克服其他竞争者赢得主机。路易斯安那州采用“丛林初选”制度，所有候选人，不分党派，一起参加投票。如果一名候选人在10月14日赢得多数票，该候选人将当选，否则将有一个11月18日决选两位得票领先的候选人。就目前情况来看，兰德里和前路易斯安那州交通部长肖恩·威尔逊(Shawn Wilson)之间的决选可能性最大。尽管其他一些著名的候选人也参加了竞选，但他们中没有一个人看起来有可能在第二轮选举中超过威尔逊。
不过，兰德里并不总是那么受欢迎。去年，更加中间派共和党副州长Billy Nungesser看起来要和极右势力兰德里竞选州长。但是Nungesser1月宣布他将寻求连任，这为共和党方面的兰德里选择敞开了大门。其他四名著名的候选人参加了州长竞选，包括三名共和党人——州参议院多数党领袖沙伦·休伊特、州财政部长约翰·施罗德和前路易斯安那州工商业协会主席斯蒂芬·瓦格斯帕克——以及独立律师亨特·兰迪，但他们在民调中明显落后于兰德里和威尔逊。
兰德里和威尔逊很可能在11月的决选中相遇
自8月以来，路易斯安那州2023年州长竞选的第一轮民意调查
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R | D | R | I | R | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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40 | 24% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 2 |
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38 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
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36 | 26 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
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40 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
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38.4 | 23.7 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 |
路易斯安那州采用“丛林初选”选举制度，所有候选人在同一张选票上竞选，不分党派，所有选民都可以参加。如果一名候选人赢得多数选票，该候选人获胜。如果没有候选人赢得多数席位，前两名候选人将在2023年11月18日举行的决选中相遇。
资料来源:民意调查
在8月和9月进行的四次民意调查中，兰德里以两位数的优势领先于威尔逊，而没有其他候选人达到10%。现在，每次民意调查都有相当数量的尚未决定的选民，自9月中旬以来，我们没有看到新的公共民意调查，所以对于这将如何进行仍有一些不确定性。然而，兰德里的平均支持率接近40%，威尔逊接近25%，所以除非他们失去有意义的支持，否则其他候选人需要找到一种方法来吸引大多数剩余选民超过威尔逊。
兰德里在几乎所有部门都处于领先地位。截至9月24日，他已经在2023年筹集了930万美元，这是在今年年初他已经在银行有500万美元的基础上建立的。反过来，他今年花了970万美元，是最接近的对手的三倍多。兰德里也有很多高调的代言，最明显的是来自特朗普并且来自保守的增长俱乐部。该州共和党在竞选中发表了早期声明通过支持兰德里去年11月，和其他共和党人一样参议员比尔·卡西迪和众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯—有可能众议院的下一任议长——已经站在司法部长的身后。此外，路易斯安那州治安官协会也支持兰德里在...之后在2015年和2019年支持爱德华兹.
但是这些都没有阻止其他候选人试图改变这场竞争。曾担任前共和党州长鲍比·金达尔幕僚长的瓦格斯帕克的支持者希望他能领导一个“新政府”除了兰德里不喜欢兰德里文化斗士倾向的共和党人联盟。截至9月底，Waguespack已经赚了310万美元，他已经用掉了这笔钱在广告上推销自己作为一个能把事情做好的商业领袖和局外人。听起来更像是传统的亲商保守派，瓦格斯帕克还想减少管制和降低所得税，同时试图下放更多的政府业务。
在春末夏初，兰德里和瓦格斯帕克盟友之间的广告战表明，兰德里的支持者可能认为瓦格斯帕克是兰德里最大的威胁。重启路易斯安那州，一个超级政治行动委员会支持Waguespack，发起了一场近200万美元的广告宣传活动其中它瞄准了兰德里的法律和秩序证书他认为在他的任期内，路易斯安那州已经成为美国最危险的州。缩放呼吁该组织撤下广告警告说，共和党内斗帮助了爱德华兹2015年和2019。作为回应，兰德里的盟友在保护路易斯安那州的儿童对金达尔治下的国家经济问题进行抨击，谁离任了非常不受欢迎。对于瓦格斯派克的机会来说，重新启动路易斯安那州是个坏兆头没有填满它的金库在那段时间里只花了一点点时间。
就施罗德和休伊特而言，尽管他们的个人资料，但他们未能对竞选产生影响。截至9月24日，施罗德已经筹集了80.9万美元，但由于2023年初他在银行的240万美元，他已经花掉了220万美元。他的竞选团队已经投放了广告攻击兰德里和瓦格斯帕克作为政治圈内人士同时声称施罗德可以对抗州政府腐败和任人唯亲。但是兰德里的盟友反击了在施罗德公司，他称州财政部长“更多的是相同的”，并把他与金达尔和爱德华兹联系在一起。与此同时，休伊特努力筹集资金，今年仅筹集了30.9万美元，而在她账户上现有61.8万美元的帮助下，她花了81.9万美元。她是向选民推销她的政策主张，但在资源更加有限、民调不佳的情况下，很难看出她有什么胜算。
除了四个主要的共和党人，还有伦迪，一个以独立身份竞选的富有的律师，他借给他的竞选活动330万美元，作为他筹集的440万美元的一部分，仅次于兰德里。蓝迪参加了竞选作为一个保守的基督徒和工人阶级背景的政治局外人。但是他也引起了一些争议:蓝迪是全国基督教立法者协会(一个组织)理事会的成员宣扬基督教民族主义观点通过在州立法机关推进“圣经”立法。
这让我们想到了威尔逊，谁整合了民主支持在比赛中.爱德华兹内阁的前成员威尔逊负责监管该州的交通网络，他已经筹集了大约200万美元刊登广告推销自己作为某人谁会通过将各种背景的人聚集在一起，“建造桥梁，而不是烧毁它们”。这一信息既与更具战斗性的兰德里形成了对比，同时也坚持了爱德华兹在成功竞选期间采用的两党合作方式。作为一名民主党人，威尔逊在路易斯安那州已经面临明显的政治障碍，但与爱德华兹不同，威尔逊是黑人，没有黑人候选人自重建以来赢得了全州的胜利.
展望兰德里和威尔逊之间可能的决胜对决，共和党几乎肯定占据上风。在过去的两个月中，我们已经看到了两次民意调查，两人势均力敌，兰德里在两次调查中都有两位数的领先优势。九月中旬，梅森-狄克逊/格雷电视机找到了兰德里以52%比39%领先，在八月中旬，找到了Faucheux策略在路易斯安那州媒体和非营利组织联盟的调查中，兰德里的支持率上升了54%至36%。兰德里也有巨大的财务优势，因为他有将近700万美元九月下旬，在他的战争基金中威尔逊只有88万美元。此外，兰德里得到了更多的外部帮助:该州的一个共和党州长协会附属机构已经花费了280万美元，主要是攻击威尔逊的广告.
这并不是说有些事情不能改变比赛的进程。但除非出现意外，否则兰德里将有望进入决选。如果他的支持率大大超过他的民意测验，他甚至可以在周六大获全胜。如果兰德里获胜，路易斯安那州的共和党人将有一个三连中—八年来首次控制了州长和州立法机构的两院，在此期间爱德华兹经常使用他的否决笔阻止由共和党人占多数的立法机构通过的立法。
Republicans look favored to flip Louisiana’s governorship
Louisiana is undoubtedly a red state. But in 2015 and 2019, it went against the grain by electing and reelecting Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards. As a result, Louisiana — which former President Donald Trumpcarried by 19 percentage pointsin 2020 — is the second-most Republican-leaning state with a Democratic governor, behind only Kentucky. On Saturday, though, Louisianans will head to the polls to potentially decide their next governor, and it looks like a red wave could wash over the blue bayou.
That’s because Republican state Attorney General Jeff Landryis the front-runner to succeed Edwards, who is term-limited. Still, Landry will have to overcome a host of other contenders to win. Louisiana uses a “jungle primary” system in which all candidates, regardless of party, are on the ballot together. Should one candidate win a majority on Oct. 14, that candidate will be elected, but otherwise there’ll be aNov. 18 runoffbetween the two leading vote-getters. As things stand, a runoff between Landry and former Louisiana Secretary of Transportation Shawn Wilson, the leading Democrat, appears most likely. Although some other notable candidates are running, none of them look likely to overtake Wilson for a second runoff spot.
Landry wasn’t always such a clear favorite, though. Last year,more centrist-mindedRepublican Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser looked set to tussle withthe hard-rightLandry for the governorship. But Nungesserannounced in Januarythat he would seek reelection instead, which left the door open for a Landry alternative on the GOP side. Four other notable candidates are in the governor’s race, including three Republicans — state Senate Majority Leader Sharon Hewitt, state Treasurer John Schroder and former Louisiana Association of Business and Industry President Stephen Waguespack — and independent attorney Hunter Lundy, but all of them clearly trail Landry and Wilson in the polls.
Landry and Wilson look likely to meet in a November runoff
Polls of the first round of Louisiana’s 2023 governor’s race, since August
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R | D | R | I | R | R |
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40 | 24% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 2 |
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38 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
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36 | 26 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
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40 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
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38.4 | 23.7 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 |
Louisiana uses a “jungle primary” election system in which all candidates run on the same ballot, regardless of party, and all voters may participate. If one candidate wins a majority of the vote, that candidate wins. Should no candidate win a majority, the top two candidates would meet in a runoff election, which would take place on Nov. 18, 2023.
SOURCE: POLLS
Across four polls conducted in August and September, Landry led by double-digit margins over Wilson, while no other candidate reached 10 percent. Now, each poll had a fair number of undecided voters, and we’ve seen no new public polling since mid-September, so there remains some uncertainty about just how this will play out. However, Landry averaged close to 40 percent and Wilson almost 25 percent, so unless they lose meaningful support, one of the other candidates is going to need to find a way to attract a majority of remaining voters to overtake Wilson.
Landry has led this race in pretty much all departments. As of Sept. 24, he’d raised $9.3 million in 2023, which built on the $5 million he already had in the bank at the start of the year. In turn, he’s spent $9.7 million this year, more than three times as much as his nearest opponent. Landry also has many high-profile endorsements,most notably from Trumpbut alsofrom the conservative Club for Growth. The state GOP made an early statement in the raceby endorsing Landrylast November, and other Republicans likeSen. Bill CassidyandHouse Majority Leader Steve Scalise— possiblythe next speaker of the House— have since lined up behind the attorney general. Additionally, the Louisiana Sheriffs’ Associationalso endorsed Landryafterbacking Edwards in both 2015 and 2019.
But none of this has kept the other candidates from trying to shake up the race. Supporters of Waguespack, who once served as chief of staff for former Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal, hoped he could lead an “anyone but Landry” coalition of Republicans who disliked Landry’s culture-warrior tendencies. Waguespack had brought in $3.1 million as of late September, and he’s used that doughon ads pitching himselfas a business leader and outsider who can get things done. Sounding more like a traditional business-friendly conservative,Waguespack also wantsto reduce regulations and lower income taxes while trying to decentralize more governmental operations.
In the late spring and early summer, an ad war between Landry and Waguespack allies signaled that Landry backers likely viewed Waguespack as Landry’s greatest threat. Reboot Louisiana, a super PAC backing Waguespack,launched a nearly $2 million advertising campaignin which ittook aim at Landry’s law-and-order credentials, arguing that Louisiana had become the country’s most dangerous state during his tenure. Scaliseappealed for the group to take down the ad, cautioning that GOP infighting helped Edwardsin 2015and2019. In response, Landry’s allies at Protect Louisiana’s Childrenhit Waguespack for the state’s economic problems under Jindal, who left officedeeply unpopular. In a bad sign for Waguespack’s chances, Reboot Louisianadidn’t refill its coffersin September and spent only a little bit in that time.
For their part, Schroder and Hewitt have failed to make an impact on the race despite their profiles. Schroder had raised $809,000 as of Sept. 24, but he had spent $2.2 million thanks to the $2.4 million he had in the bank at the start of 2023. His campaign has run adsattacking Landryand Waguespackas political insiderswhile arguing that Schroder can fight the state’scorruption and cronyism. ButLandry’s allies struck backat Schroder by calling the state treasurer “more of the same” and linking him to Jindal and Edwards. Meanwhile, Hewitt has struggled to bring in money, raising just $309,000 this year while spending $819,000 with help from the $618,000 she already had in her account. She’spitched her policy chops to voters, but with more limited resources and poor polling, it’s hard to see how she has any shot.
Beyond the four main Republicans, there’s also Lundy, a wealthy attorney running as an independent who has loaned his campaign $3.3 million as part of the $4.4 million he’s raised overall, second only to Landry.Lundy has campaignedas a conservative Christian and political outsider with a working-class background. But he’s also courted some controversy: Lundy is a member of the governing board of the National Association of Christian Lawmakers, an organizationthat promotes Christian nationalist viewsby advancing “biblical” legislation in state legislatures.
This brings us to Wilson,who has consolidatedDemocratic supportin the race.A former member of Edwards’s cabinetwho oversaw the state’s transportation network, Wilson has raised about $2 million andhas run ads pitching himselfas someonewho will“build bridges, not burn them” by bringing people of all backgrounds together. That message both acts as a contrast with the more combative Landry while also hewing to the bipartisan approach Edwards employed during his successful campaigns. As a Democrat, Wilson already faces obvious political hurdles in Louisiana, but unlike Edwards, Wilson is Black, and no Black candidatehas won statewide since Reconstruction.
Looking ahead to a likely runoff matchup between Landry and Wilson, the GOP almost certainly has the upper hand. We’ve seen two polls in the past two months that tested the two head-to-head, and Landry had double-digit leads in both. In mid-September,Mason-Dixon/Gray Television foundLandry ahead 52 percent to 39 percent, and in mid-August,Faucheux Strategies foundLandry up 54 percent to 36 percent in a survey for a consortium of Louisiana media outlets and nonprofit groups. Landry has a huge financial edge, too, as hehad nearly $7 millionin his war chest in late September, whileWilson had just $880,000. Moreover, Landry is getting more outside help: A Republican Governors Association affiliate in the state has already spent $2.8 million,mostly on attack ads against Wilson.
This is not to say that something couldn’t change the course of the race. But barring something unexpected, Landry will be favored should the race go to a runoff. He could even win outright on Saturday if he significantly outruns his polls. And if Landry wins, Louisiana Republicans will have atrifecta— control of the governorship and both chambers in the state legislature — for the first time in eight years, during which time Edwardsoften used his veto pento block legislation passed by the heavily Republican legislature.
