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专家称,以色列可能的地面进攻的延迟为军队提供了更好的准备

2023-10-24 08:50 -ABC  -  212786

所有的目光都集中在以色列-哈马斯战争上,以色列国防军每天都在加沙发动空袭,世界领导人和其他人一直在焦急地等待一些专家所说的不可避免的进入加沙的地面行动。

自从10月7日哈马斯恐怖袭击以色列军方领导人已经从世界各地召集了超过360,000名以色列国防军预备役人员,并不排除派遣他们参加战斗,以报复哈马斯并解救被该激进组织劫持的220多名以色列人。

PHOTO: Israeli army reservists practice at the Urban Warfare Training Centre (UWTC) in Tse'elim camp in southern Israel, Jan. 11, 2009.

2009年1月11日,以色列南部城市战训练中心(UWTC ),以色列陆军预备役人员在练习。

杰克·盖兹/法新社

然而,以色列官员还没有正式给出一个时间表,作为一个潜在的地面攻击将会发生。一名美国高级官员告诉美国广播公司新闻,截至周一,拜登政府还没有绝对确定何时可以开始地面入侵。

前以色列副国家安全顾问、哈佛大学肯尼迪学院资深研究员查克·弗赖利希告诉美国广播公司,尽管他对以色列尚未开始地面进攻感到惊讶,但他不认为这是一种拖延。相反,他说,这是一个迹象,表明以色列正在尽最大努力为这样的行动做准备,并尽可能减少附带的、政治的和长期的损害。

“这对以色列来说是一个重大的决定,它必须绝对正确,”弗赖利希说。“这一次,赌注如此之高。”

弗赖利希指出,尽管以色列国防军的预备役人员代表了以色列历史上最大的服役需求之一,但他们仍然需要时间为他所说的前所未有的任务做好准备。

弗赖利希说,在过去的几十年里,以色列军方在重大犯罪和冲突中依赖全职士兵的服务,并越来越少地调用预备役人员。

“即使预备役人员已经做好战斗准备,也存在很大的争议。有些人认为他们不是,”他说。

据估计,以色列国防军有605,000名现役成员,其中35,500名是全职士兵,约占军事单位的5.87%。估计有139,500人是应征入伍者,其余430,000人是预备役人员。

斯坦福大学弗里曼·斯波格利国际研究学院政治学和以色列研究客座教授Amichai Magen告诉ABC新闻,以色列国防军也需要更多时间来制定其军事战略。

Magen说,在10月7日被他称为“巨大的情报失败和巨大的行动失败”的措手不及后,以色列军方将一丝不苟地打击哈马斯目标,营救人质,并尽可能避免任何巴勒斯坦平民和以色列士兵的伤亡。

“以色列遭到了可怕的袭击...也不想再次被吓到,”他说。“以色列想要选择决定战争下一阶段的方法和时机。”

Magen说,目前以色列国防军的空袭提供了行动优势,因为他们摧毁了哈马斯的据点、武器和激进组织的领导人,并为他们的地面进攻“提供了一条道路”。

然而,专家警告说,拖延将对以色列的声誉产生连锁反应,因为越来越多的巴勒斯坦平民陷入了交叉火力之中.

“很明显,随着时间的推移,以色列袭击的合法性在减弱,”弗赖利希说。“随着更多丑陋的(平民)照片从加沙流出,这伤害了以色列。”

一名政府官员周日告诉美国广播公司新闻,拜登政府要求以色列推迟对加沙的地面入侵,以便有时间释放更多人质,并为加沙平民提供人道主义援助。白宫拒绝证实或否认政府的要求。

Magen说,美国和其他西方大国的支持是以色列决定的一个因素,但最终军方将做出它认为最好的判断。

“有一种感觉,风险如此之大,这一次,无论有没有国际同情,以色列都没有选择,”Magen说。

弗赖利希说,以色列领导人必须为未来的几个政治和军事场景做好准备,包括一旦他们进入加沙地带,他们的军队将如何与哈马斯作战,以及他们计划在那里战斗多长时间。

马根说,以色列也在为冲突升级的可能性做准备,可能需要将军队部署到其他地区,包括约旦河西岸,以打击哈马斯、真主党和其他恐怖组织。

“计算已经改变了,”他说。"以色列人感觉他们是在背水一战。"

Delay in possible Israel ground assault provides troops with better prep: Experts

With all eyes on the Israel-Hamas war, and Israeli Defense Forces airstrikes happening daily in Gaza, world leaders and others have been anxiously awaiting what some experts say is an inevitable ground operation into Gaza.

Since theOct. 7 Hamas terror attack, Israeli military leaders have been mustering more than 360,000 IDF reservists from around the world and have not ruled out sending them into combat to retaliate against Hamas and rescue more than 220 Israelis who were taken hostage by the militant group.

However, Israeli officials have not formally given a timeline as to when a potential ground assault would take place. A senior U.S. official told ABC News that, as of Monday, the Biden administration has no absolute certainty when a ground incursion could begin.

Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel and long-time senior fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School, told ABC News that while he's surprised Israel has not started a ground offensive yet, he doesn't see it as a delay. Rather, he said, it's a sign Israel is doing as much it can to prepare for such an operation and have as little collateral, political and long-term damage as possible.

"This is a momentous decision for Israel, and it must absolutely get it right," Freilich said. "This time, the stakes are so high."

Freilich noted that even though the IDF's reservists represent one of the largest calls to service in Israel's history, they still need time to be ready for what he said was an unprecedented mission.

Over the last few decades, the Israeli military has leaned on the service of full-time soldiers in major offenses and conflicts and has called on reservists less and less, according to Freilich.

"There was a big debate even if the reservists were combat-ready. There were some who argued they aren't," he said.

It's estimated the IDF has 605,000 active members, 35,500 of whom are full-time soldiers -- roughly 5.87% of the military unit. An estimated 139,500 are conscripts, and the remaining 430,000 are reservists.

Amichai Magen, a visiting professor of political science and Israeli studies at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, told ABC News that the IDF also needed more time to lay out its military strategy.

Magen said that after getting caught off guard on Oct. 7 in what he called a "colossal intelligence failure followed by a colossal operational failure," the Israeli military will be working meticulously to strike Hamas targets, rescue the hostages, and avoid any Palestinian civilian and Israeli solider casualty that it can.

"Israel was taken by surprise horribly... and doesn't want to be taken by surprise again," he said. "Israel wants to choose the methods and timing by which the next phase of the war will be determined."

Magen said the current IDF airstrikes provide an operational advantage as they take out Hamas strongholds, weapons and leaders of the militant group, and "give soldiers a pathway" for their ground assault.

However, experts warn the delays will have a rippling impact on Israel's reputation, as more and morePalestinian civilians are caught in the crossfire.

"Clearly as time goes, the legitimatization of an Israeli attack diminishes," Freilich said. "As more ugly pictures [of civilians] come out of Gaza, it hurts Israel."

The Biden administration asked Israel to delay a ground incursion into Gaza to allow time for the release of more hostages and for humanitarian aid to get to civilians in Gaza, an administration official told ABC News on Sunday. The White House refused to confirm or deny the administration's request.

Magen said the support of the U.S. and other Western powers is a factor in Israel's decision, but ultimately the military will make the judgment on what it thinks is the best course.

"There is a sense the stakes are so high that this time, with or without international sympathy, Israel has no choice," Magen said.

Freilich said Israel's leaders will have to be prepared for several political and military scenarios going forward, including how their troops would fighting Hamas once they are on Gaza soil, and how long they plan on fighting there.

Magen said Israel is also preparing for the possibility that the conflict could escalate and may need to deploy its troops to other areas, including the West Bank, to fight Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist groups.

"The calculus has changed," he said. "Israelis feel like they are fighting with their backs against their walls."

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