毕竟，看起来拜登总统不会一帆风顺地获得民主党提名。周五，明尼苏达州众议员迪恩·菲利普斯宣布参加2024年总统竞选他认为，尽管拜登作为总统“做了出色的工作”，但该党“需要展望未来”，以确保能够击败前总统唐纳德·特朗普。菲利普斯的举动发生在前初选竞争者小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪之后近三周退出民主党初选，以独立候选人身份参选。虽然2020年总统候选人玛丽安娜·威廉森也在竞选，但菲利普斯很快成为拜登在自己党内最著名的对手。
像许多过去的总统初选挑战者一样，菲利普斯瞄准了新罕布什尔州以引起轰动。他可能会在那里取得象征性的胜利，因为拜登不会参加投票，因为民主党全国委员会即将对花岗岩州民主党人实施制裁，因为他们违反了该党的初选规则。这位国会议员的竞选活动是出于对拜登当选可能性的担忧民主党人的担忧关于总统的高龄(他在11月就81岁了)，糟糕的支持率(538岁时为40%)全国平均水平)和早期大选民意调查这可能预示着与特朗普的艰难竞争。
菲利普斯提出了一个主要的竞选目标:确保民主党在2024年击败特朗普。然而，他为如何做到这一点而提出的两条道路似乎并不特别可行，而且也有些不协调。一条路线涉及他实际赢得提名，并为特朗普提供一个更强大(尤其是更年轻)的对手。但是菲利普斯在民主党初选中击败拜登的可能性微乎其微。拜登在民主党人中保持了稳定的支持率，他没有在任何突出问题上扰乱党内的大部分人，这使得菲利普斯没有明显的裂缝可以利用。此外，要想取得成功，他或许应该在选举周期的更早阶段开始竞选。
菲利普斯表示，第二个选择是，他的挑战将推动拜登进行一场艰难的初选，让拜登更好地准备好面对特朗普的严峻考验。但是，尽管他的意图，这位鲜为人知的国会议员可能会在大选前间接引起人们对总统弱点的关注，从而损害拜登的利益。
谁是迪安·菲利普斯?
对一些人来说，第一个问题是:谁是菲利普斯?他今年54岁，是明尼苏达州的第三任国会议员代表明尼阿波利斯西部的郊区。百万富翁菲利普斯是他家族酿酒公司的继承人他还领导了冰淇淋制造商Talenti。他是犹太人，以及他争辩道在以色列-哈马斯冲突之后，美国需要支持以色列，尽管他支持长期的两国解决方案。在国会，菲利普斯是众议院民主党核心小组中相当温和的成员。在2004年，他的支持率下降到了他的党内同事的80%左右VoteView.com的思想数据，而他属于中间偏左，以商业为导向新民主党联盟和两党问题解决者核心小组.
明尼苏达人几个月来一直在寻找潜在的机会，而且还说这个聚会会从竞争激烈的初选中获益。事实上，他竞选的延迟可能是由于他的努力鼓励另一个更有名的民主党人在决定自己参选前先参选。尽管一些民主党人批评菲利普斯的竞选是自我夸大，理论上他的入境可能仍然是为了引诱一位高调的民主党人通过展示对替代方案的渴望而加入竞选——尽管这种情景的可行性微乎其微的时间已经不多了。菲利普斯是否会明确批评拜登的政策还有待观察——他大多对现任的任期表示赞赏——但至少有一句菲利普斯的口号(“让美国再次负担得起”)指出了他对经济问题的额外关注，美国人的主要担忧在过去的几年里——尤其是通货膨胀和生活费用的上涨.
当然，菲利普斯赢得民主党总统候选人提名的可能性很小。尽管他有资格成为“主要”候选人根据538的标准菲利普斯是一个相对默默无闻的国会议员——很明显，538无法找到一个单一的全国性调查，询问菲利普斯，如民意测验测试他的支持率。可以理解的是，菲利普斯打算在开始时完全专注于新罕布什尔州的初选，但为了有机会，他需要吸引筹款支持，并建立一个更广泛的竞选机制，以利用他在那里的任何成功。菲利普斯将有一位经验丰富的全国竞选经理史蒂夫·施密特领路，他是前共和党特工和约翰·麦凯恩2008年总统竞选的经理谁与共和党决裂了超过川普。这是一个令人惊讶的选择，但考虑到菲利普斯可能很难找到一个愿意冒着政党政治生涯的风险来经营他的竞选活动的民主党人，这也许并不奇怪。
为什么菲利普斯是一个不寻常的主要挑战者
菲利普斯(或任何主要挑战者)的一个根本问题是，民主党人对拜登作为总统的工作持积极态度。确实，民意调查显示民主党人担心拜登的年龄很多人表现出很大一部分——有时是大多数——更喜欢不同的提名人和/或拜登不要再跑了。但仅仅这些担忧可能不会阻止拜登。目前缺少的是第二个因素:党内对拜登工作表现的相当大的失望。拜登的情况与7月时基本相同，当538列出为什么拜登不太可能面临重大的初选挑战。也就是说，78%的民主党人认可拜登作为总统的表现，这仅比他在2023年1月的80%略有下降。
这并不是说拜登在处理不同问题时不会面临民主党人某种程度的不满。最值得注意的是，民主党人对拜登的支持率较低管理经济和相关挑战比如通货膨胀，它仍然是一个总统的主要弱点。尽管如此，民主党人仍然更有可能赞成而不是反对拜登的经济处理方式。总的来说，党派观点也可能让民主党保持一致尽管对他有疑虑，但仍支持拜登，就像他们推动共和党一样从一开始就强烈反对拜登.
菲利普斯竞选背后的另一个因素是缺乏明确的意识形态分歧和/或单一的压倒一切的政策问题来推动他与拜登的竞选与过去的总统初选挑战形成鲜明对比。回顾过去，几乎所有在二战后的时代都有一个或两个条件。
挑战者通常有政策和/或意识形态的问题要挑
自1952年以来，在任总统面临明显反对重新提名以及在任总统政党是否赢得随后大选的选举
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*杜鲁门在1952年3月和约翰逊在1968年3月宣布，他们不会在新罕布什尔州初选中表现不佳后不久寻求连任，这两年的3月都发生了这种情况。这些选举发生在现代总统初选制度于1972年首次成形之前。其他在拜登之前任职的人都获得了再次提名。
资料来源:CQ选举指南，纽约时报
拜登的总体支持率很低，但他目前的政治立场与面临初选挑战的前任有着显著的不同。与大多数人不同的是，拜登在他的政党基础中保持了很高的支持率，他与经济的斗争不一定能与一些历史事件和争议相提并论，这些事件和争议损害了前任的地位，他们面临着著名的初选挑战者。
在1952年和1968年新罕布什尔州的初选中，关键问题导致了两位在任总统的破坏性结果。1952年，田纳西州参议员埃斯蒂斯·克福弗挑战哈里·杜鲁门总统被压碎了经过对政府腐败的指控持续的朝鲜战争和经济冲突。杜鲁门支持率在20%左右在40多岁的民主党人中。在新罕布什尔州3月的初选中，Kefauver以55%比44%击败了现任总统，杜鲁门宣布他将在当月晚些时候不再参加竞选。1968年，越来越多的公众反对越南战争瓦解了民主党。明尼苏达州参议员尤金·麦卡锡与总统林登·约翰逊竞选作为一名反战候选人随着民主党人对LBJ的支持率跌至50%以下。约翰逊在新罕布什尔州3月的初选中险胜作为候选人，50%对麦卡锡的42%。但总统相对较差的表现促使纽约州参议员罗伯特·肯尼迪。参加比赛，然后是LBJ宣布他不会寻求再次提名.
最近的初选挑战通常是由更广泛的意识形态分歧引发的。1976年，温和的共和党总统杰拉尔德·福特击退了保守派的挑战来自前加州州长罗纳德·里根领导共和党上升的权利反对福特的政治赤字开支和对苏联的缓和。1980年，参议员泰德·肯尼迪从左边过来反对吉米·卡特总统挫败了一些自由主义者和劳工领袖随着他更为保守的经济政策;卡特在后半段总统任期的大部分时间里，民主党人对他的支持率都在40%左右。1992年，保守派评论员帕特·布坎南用原型特朗普向老布什总统发起挑战民粹主义、社会保守主义和孤立主义消息。布坎南尴尬的布什在新罕布什尔州虽然布坎南没有赢得一场初选，但他赢得了一个该党全国代表大会上的主要发言时段.
虽然菲利普斯提到了经济问题，但他说他希望避免批评拜登的工作表现，这与过去的大多数挑战者不同。作为一名政治温和派，菲利普斯并没有寻求来自拜登左派的意识形态挑战——事实上，高调的进步人士支持拜登连任。由于他主要关注拜登的年龄，并拒绝明确质疑拜登的政策，菲利普斯也没有真正站在他的右边。
即使菲利普斯没有明确攻击拜登，但他关于他可以通过挑战拜登来加强党的主张是值得商榷的。从历史上看，这种分歧在1968年民主党初选、1980年民主党初选和1992年共和党初选中暴露无遗可能导致了或者去过最终失败背后的问题的征兆现任总统的政党。现在还不知道这是否是真的。我们政治中的两极分化已经加剧，以及选民越来越被锁定到他们的身边自20世纪90年代以来。所以不管发生什么，大多数民主党人和共和党人—包括独立人士倾向于这些党派的人——将会坚持他们喜欢的党派。
然而，菲利普斯对拜登的任何默许的批评都可能引起关注，并加强对现任的负面看法。不难想象菲利普斯会说些什么，比如说，更高的生活成本吸引了媒体的广泛关注。共和党广告制作人可能会想到向选民抛出一句类似“即使民主党人也认为拜登经济学失败了”的话。菲利普斯对其他问题的评论，如公共安全和犯罪——拜登支持率的另一个问题落后于他的总体评分在民主党人中间——也可能促使媒体和公众更多地关注拜登的挑战。在那里的时候摇摆选民越来越少这些问题可能会影响他们的选择，在大多数总统选举以微弱优势决定的环境下，这些选择非常重要。
这让我们想到了菲利普斯最关心的问题，他声称提名拜登将使民主党走上输给特朗普的道路。2024年初的大选民调测试拜登对特朗普显示一场势均力敌的比赛因此，拜登毫无疑问会输——特别是考虑到他的支持率很低，公众对经济状况也不满意。特朗普还在2016年表明，他可以开辟一条通往胜利的道路即使失去了全国普选，这可能会再次发生。换句话说，民主党人有很多担心。但这种担心也源于这样一个现实，即在我们这个严重分裂的政治时代，势均力敌的总统选举几乎是必然的。更广泛地说，距离大选还有一年的总统选举有明显更多的错误比大选年夏天的民意测验还要多。这些民调可能比基于选民对两位候选人高度熟悉的典型早期民调更有价值。但不用说，从现在到2024年11月，经济状况、战争与和平、特朗普的法律问题和其他许多事态发展可能会极大地影响选举环境。
诚然，拜登是有史以来最老的总统，这是总统初选挑战前所未有的存在理由。然而，如果菲利普斯想更积极地推动拜登“传递火炬”，他可能应该更早加入竞选。这位国会议员本可以给自己更多的时间来吸引注意力，或者像他暗示的那样，让一个更大的名字加入进来——在夏末，当谣言第一次出现时，他可能会参选。听听那些已经提出了许多后勤方面的挑战会阻碍共和党的初选弗吉尼亚州州长格伦·扬金(Glenn Youngkin)认为，一些共和党捐助者认为他是一位白衣骑士，可以在共和党初选中给特朗普一场真正的战斗。根据初选日程的现实情况，这么晚才开始的竞选似乎有点不切实际。
新罕布什尔州的皱纹
尽管如此，菲利普斯决定瞄准新罕布什尔州可能会产生一个有趣的动态，因为这场竞争在2024年将与过去不同。在拜登的带领下，民主党全国委员会实施了主日历其中南卡罗来纳州的初选将于2月3日开始，新罕布什尔州的初选将于2月6日与内华达州的初选并列第二。然而，新罕布什尔州官员正在推进他们的初选，初选可能会在1月下旬举行，州民主党人拒绝在民主党全国委员会的授权日期创建一个替代的政党竞选。由于这种违反国家政党规则的行为，新罕布什尔州的民主党人可能会失去至少一半(如果不是全部)的党代表和候选人可能面临失败全部他们的代表如果他们参加新罕布什尔州未经批准的州初选。有鉴于此，拜登没有申请参加初选。这一切都意味着菲利普斯不仅不能获得任何州外的代表，而且他还可能丧失未来任何代表的权利。
然而，这些发展已经吻合，因此菲利普斯可以通过在新罕布什尔州获胜或接近获胜而占据头条新闻，这对初选的其余部分产生未知的影响。菲利普斯的理论可能是，如果他开始获胜，该党最终会在代表惩罚问题上与他妥协。至少，对于新罕布什尔州的一些民主党人来说，这种情况的潜在可能性显然是一个问题，他们已经开始组织一个写文章的活动为了拜登。然而，如果拜登仅以微弱优势获胜，一场非推荐竞选仍可能被证明是令人尴尬的——如果他失败了，情况就更是如此。不管这种情况的细微差别，很容易想象媒体会把这样的结果作为拜登弱点的信号。
但是，即使在新罕布什尔州看似强劲的表现也不太可能使菲利普斯获得党内提名。拜登几乎肯定会在南卡罗来纳州获胜为他的2020年竞选提供了急需的推动力在其他早期初选州失利后，然后还有内华达州，菲利普斯在那里错过了候选人申报截止日期。今天的竞选日历也将对菲利普斯激励其他民主党人加入初选领域的任何早期成功的可能性泼冷水。尽管约翰逊在新罕布什尔州的疲软表现促使肯尼迪加入了1968年的竞选，但今天的制度并不真正允许候选人这么晚才加入竞争。这是因为许多初选的候选人申报截止日期是2023年或2024年初——例如，众多超级星期二(3月5日)比赛的大多数候选人申报截止日期是在11月和12月。
然而，一些意想不到的事情可能会发生，也许是因为拜登的年龄或健康状况，这可能会推动菲利普斯在2024年的民主党初选中处于更加可行的位置。通过竞选，菲利普斯正在做一些更著名的民主党人没有做的事情——给自己一个机会。这使得菲利普斯的处境与目前与特朗普竞选的共和党人没有什么不同，后者可能会坚持希望特朗普的法律问题——或他自己与年龄有关的问题(特朗普77岁)——能够提供一个最终的机会，如果他们能够在共和党初选中保持活力的话。
The curious case of Dean Phillips's last-minute primary challenge
It looks like President Biden won't have perfectly smooth sailing to the Democratic nomination, after all. On Friday, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillipsannounced a 2024 presidential campaign, arguing that while Biden "has done a spectacular job" as president, the party "needs to look to the future" to ensure it can defeat former President Donald Trump. Phillips's move came nearly three weeks after erstwhile primary contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr.dropped out of the Democratic primary to run as an independent. While 2020 presidential candidate Marianne Williamson is also running, Phillips quickly moves to the front of the line as Biden's most notable opponent within his own party.
Like many past presidential primary challengers, Phillips has targeted New Hampshire to make a splash. And he could notch a symbolic win there because Biden won't be on the ballot due to the Democratic National Committee's impending sanctions against Granite State Democrats for violating the party's primary calendar rules. The congressman's campaign is motivated by concerns over Biden's electability givenDemocrats' apprehensionsabout the president's advanced age (he'll be 81 in November), poor approval rating (40 percent in 538'snational average) andearly general election pollsthat may foreshadow a difficult race against Trump.
Phillips has laid out one chief campaign goal: Ensuring Democrats defeat Trump in 2024. However, the two paths he's set out for how to do that don't seem especially viable — and are also somewhat incongruous. One route involves him actually winning the nomination and offering a stronger (and notably younger) opponent to Trump. But Phillips's path to defeating Biden in the Democratic primary looks vanishingly small. Biden has maintained solid approval numbers among Democrats and he hasn't upset a large swath of the party on any standout issues, which leaves Phillips with no obvious fissures to capitalize on. Moreover, to have any shot at success, he probably should have launched his campaign much earlier in the election cycle.
The second option, according to Phillips, is that his challenge will push Biden with a tough primary campaign that better prepares Biden for the rigors of facing Trump. But despite his intentions, the little-known congressman may risk damaging Biden ahead of the general election by indirectly calling attention to the president's weaknesses.
Who is Dean Phillips?
The first question for some will be: Who is Phillips? He's a 54-year-old, third-term congressman from Minnesota, where herepresents the suburbs west of Minneapolis. The millionaire Phillips washeir to his family's distilling company, and he also led the gelato manufacturer Talenti.He's Jewish, andhe's arguedin the wake of the Israel-Hamas conflict that the U.S. needs to support Israel, although he backs a two-state solution long-term. In Congress, Phillips has been a fairly moderate member of the House Democratic caucus. He falls to the right of about 80 percent of his party colleagues inVoteView.com's ideological data, and he belongs to the center-left, business-orientedNew Democrat Coalitionand the bipartisanProblem Solvers Caucus.
The Minnesotanteased a potential run for months, but also said that the partywould benefit from a competitive primary. In fact, the delay in his campaign may have been due to his effortsto encourageanother, better-known Democrat to run before deciding to do it himself. Although some Democratshave criticized Phillips's run as self-aggrandizing, in theory his entrymight still be aimed at luringa higher-profile Democrat into the race by demonstrating that there's an appetite for an alternative — although time is running out for such a scenario to be remotely feasible. It remains to be seen if Phillips will explicitly criticize Biden's policies — he's mostly applauded the incumbent's tenure — but at least one Phillips slogan ("Make America affordable again") points to his additional focus on economic concerns,a chief worry for Americansover the past couple of years — especiallyinflation and the higher cost of living.
Of course, Phillips is very much a long shot to win the Democratic nomination for president. Although he qualifies as a "major" candidateunder 538's criteria, Phillips is a relatively obscure congressman — tellingly, 538 could not locate a single national survey that had asked about Phillips, such as a poll testing his favorability rating. Understandably then, Phillips intends to focus entirely on the New Hampshire primary at the start, but to have a chance he would need to attract fundraising support and build a broader campaign apparatus to capitalize on any success he has there. Phillips will have an experienced national campaign manager leading the way in Steve Schmidt, a former Republican operative and manager for John McCain's 2008 presidential campaignwho broke with the GOPover Trump. It's an eyebrow-raising choice, but perhaps not surprising given that Phillips probably struggled to find a Democrat willing to risk their career in party politics to run his campaign.
Why Phillips is an unusual primary challenger
A fundamental problem for Phillips (or any primary challenger) is that Democrats have a positive view of Biden's work as president. It's true polls have shown Democrats areworried about Biden's age, and many have shown a large share — sometimes a majority —would prefer a different nomineeand/or for Bidennot to run again. But those concerns alone may not stop Biden. What's missing so far is a second ingredient: sizable intraparty frustration with Biden's job performance. Biden's circumstances are largely the same as they were in July,when 538 laid out why Bidenwas unlikely to face a significant primary challenge. Namely, 78 percent of Democrats approve of Biden's performance as president, which represents only a very slight tick downward from where he stood in January 2023 at 80 percent.
This is not to say that Biden doesn't face some degree of unhappiness among Democrats when it comes to his handling of different problems. Most notably, Democrats have lower approval ratings for how Biden hashandled the economyand related challengeslike inflation, which remains achief weakness for the president. Still, Democrats remain more likely to approve than disapprove of Biden's economic handling. And overall, partisan viewsmay also be keeping Democrats in linebehind Biden despite doubts about him, just as they pushed Republicansto overwhelmingly disapprove of Biden from the start.
Another factor missing behind Phillips's campaign is the lack of a clear ideological disagreement and/or single overriding policy issue driving his run against Biden, whichcontrasts greatly with past presidential primary challenges. Looking back, pretty much all in the post-World War II era had one or both of those conditions.
Challengers usually have policy and/or ideological bones to pick
Elections in which incumbent presidents faced notable opposition for renomination and whether the incumbent presidential party won the ensuing general election, since 1952
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 |
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D |
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? |
| 1992 |
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R |
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| 1980 |
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D |
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| 1976 |
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R |
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| 1968 |
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D |
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| 1952 |
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D |
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*Truman in March 1952 and Johnson in March 1968 announced that they would not seek reelection not long after a poor performance in the New Hampshire primary, which occurred in March of both years. These elections took place before the modern presidential primary system first took shape in 1972. The other pre-Biden incumbents in this table all won renomination.
SOURCES: CQ GUIDE TO ELECTIONS, NEW YORK TIMES
Biden's overall approval is poor, but there are striking differences between his current political position and that of past incumbents who faced primary challenges. Unlike most, Biden has retained a high approval rating among his party base, and his struggles with the economy don't necessarily compare with some of the historical events and controversies that damaged the standing of previous incumbents who faced notable primary challengers.
Pivotal issues helped provoke two damaging results for incumbent presidents in the 1952 and 1968 New Hampshire primaries. In 1952, Tennessee Sen. Estes Kefauver challenged President Harry Truman, whose standinghad been crushedbyaccusations of government corruption, the ongoing Korean War and economic strife. Trumanhad an approval rating in the 20s— and in the 40s among Democrats. Kefauver defeated the incumbent 55 percent to 44 percent in New Hampshire's March primary, and Truman announced he wouldn't run again later that month. In 1968, growing public opposition to the Vietnam Warfractured the Democratic Party. Minnesota Sen. Eugene McCarthy ran against President Lyndon Johnsonas an anti-war candidate, as LBJ's approval among Democrats sagged into the low 50s. Johnson narrowly won New Hampshire's March primaryas a write-in candidate, 50 percent to McCarthy's 42 percent. But the president's relatively poor showing prompted New York Sen. Robert Kennedy Sr.to enter the race, and LBJ thenannounced he wouldn't seek renomination.
More recent primary challenges have usually been driven by broader ideological disagreements. In 1976, moderate Republican President Gerald Fordfended off a conservative challengefrom former California Gov. Ronald Reagan, wholed the GOP's ascendant rightagainst Ford's politics ofdeficit spendinganddétente toward the Soviet Union. In 1980, Sen. Ted Kennedycame from the leftagainst President Jimmy Carter, who hadfrustrated some liberalsandlabor leaderswithhis more conservative economic policies; Carter's approval rating among Democrats was in the low 40s for most of the latter half of his presidency. And in 1992, conservative commentator Pat Buchanan challenged President George H.W. Bush with a proto-Trumpianpopulist, socially conservative and isolationistmessage. Buchananembarrassed Bush in New Hampshire, losing only 53 percent to 37 percent, and while Buchanan didn't win a single primary, he earned akey speaking slot at the party's national convention.
While Phillips has made references to economic concerns, he's said he wants to avoid criticizing Biden's job performance, in contrast to most past challengers. A political moderate, Phillips isn't pursuing an ideological challenge from Biden's left — in fact,high-profile progressives have backed Biden's reelection. And with his focus primarily on Biden's age and his refusal to explicitly question Biden's policies, Phillips isn't really running to his right, either.
Even if Phillips doesn't explicitly attack Biden, though, his assertion that he can strengthen the party by challenging Biden is debatable. Historically, the divisions laid bare in the 1968 Democratic, 1980 Democratic and 1992 Republican primary campaignsmay have contributed toor beensymptomatic of the issues underlying the eventual defeatof the incumbent president's party. Whether that would be as true today is harder to know.Polarization in our politics has grown, andvoters have been increasingly locked into their sidessince the 1990s. So come hell or high water, most Democrats and Republicans —including independentswho lean toward those parties — are going to stick with their preferred party.
However, any tacit criticism Phillips makes of Biden could garner attention and reinforce negative perceptions of the incumbent. It's not hard to imagine Phillips saying something about, say, the higher cost of living that attracts ample media attention. Republican ad makers might then conceive of pitching voters with a line like "even Democrats think Bidenomics have failed." Phillips's comments on other issues, like public safety and crime — another issue on which Biden's approval ratingslag compared to his overall ratingsamong Democrats — could also prime the media and public to focus more on Biden's challenges. And while thereare fewer swing voters, these issues could influence their choices, which are incredibly important in an environment where most presidential elections are decided by fine margins.
This brings us to perhaps Phillips's preeminent concern, his claim thatnominating Biden would set Democrats on a course to lose to Trump. Early 2024 general election polls testing Biden against Trumpshow a very close race, so there's little question that Biden could lose — especially considering his approval is poor and the public is unhappy with the state of the economy. Trump also showed in 2016 that hecould carve a path to victoryeven while losing the national popular vote, which could happen again. In other words, Democrats have plenty to fear. But that fear is also borne of the reality that close presidential elections are practically a given in our deeply-divided political era. More broadly, presidential polls a year out from the electionhave notably more errorthan polls in the summer of the actual general election year. These polls might have more value than typical early polls based on voters' high familiarity with both candidates. But needless to say, the state of the economy, war and peace, Trump's legal issues and many other developments could significantly affect the electoral environment between now and November 2024.
Granted, Biden is the oldest president ever, which is an unprecedented raison d'être for a presidential primary challenge. Yet if Phillips wanted to more aggressively push Biden to "pass the torch," he probably should've gotten into the race sooner. The congressman would've given himself more time to gain traction and attention — or perhaps set the table for a bigger name to jump in, as he's suggested he was waiting for — by entering in the late summer, when rumors first sprang up that he might run. Take it from the commentators who have already laid out themany logistical challenges that would deter a late Republican primary entryby Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who some GOP donors view as a white knight who could ride in to give Trump a real battle in the Republican primary. Based on the realities of the primary calendar, a campaign beginning this late seems borderline quixotic.
The New Hampshire wrinkle
Still, Phillips's decision to target New Hampshire could produce an interesting dynamic because that contest will function differently in 2024 than in the past. Following Biden's lead, the DNCimplemented a primary calendarin which South Carolina's primary would lead off on Feb. 3 and New Hampshire's primary would share the second position with Nevada's primary on Feb. 6. However, New Hampshire officials are moving forward with their primary, which will likely take place in late January, and state Democrats have refused to create an alternate party-run contest on the DNC's mandated date. As a result of this violation of national party rules, New Hampshire Democrats will likely lose at least half, if not all, of their convention delegates, and candidatescould face losingallof their delegatesif they run in New Hampshire's unsanctioned state-run primary. In light of this,Biden did not file to appear on the primary ballot. This all means that Phillips not only can't get any delegates out of the state, but he also could forfeit his right to any future ones, too.
However, these developments have dovetailed such that Phillips could grab headlines by winning — or coming close — in New Hampshire, with unknown consequences for the rest of the primary campaign. The theory for Phillips may be that, if he starts winning, the party would eventually compromise with him regarding the delegate penalties. At the very least, the potential optics of this situation are clearly a concern for some New Hampshire Democrats,who've begun organizing a write-in effortfor Biden. Yet a write-in campaign could still prove to be embarrassing for Biden if he only narrowly wins — and even more so if he loses. Regardless of the nuances of this situation, it's easy to imagine the media taking a result like that and running with it as a signal of Biden's weakness.
But even a seemingly strong performance in New Hampshire is unlikely to buoy Phillips to the party's nomination. Biden would almost certainly cruise to victory in South Carolina, whichprovided a sorely needed boost to his 2020 campaignafter losses in other early primary states, and then also Nevada, where Phillipsmissed the candidate filing deadline. Today's campaign calendar would also throw cold water on the possibility of any early success by Phillips inspiring other Democrats to join the primary field. Whereas Johnson's weak showing in New Hampshire prompted Kennedy to jump into the 1968 race, today's system doesn't really allow for candidates to enter the fray so late. That's because many primaries have candidate filing deadlines in 2023 or early 2024 — for instance, most candidate filing deadlines for the numerous Super Tuesday (March 5) contests are in November and December.
However, something unexpected could happen, perhaps because of Biden's age or health, that might propel Phillips into a much more viable position in the 2024 Democratic primary. By running, Phillips is doing what more notable Democratic names have not — giving himself a chance. That puts Phillips in a position not dissimilar from the Republicans currently running against Trump, who may cling to the hope that Trump's legal troubles — or his own age-related issues (Trump is 77) — could provide an eventual opening if they can just stay alive in the GOP primary.
