欢迎来到538的政治聊天。下面的文字经过了轻微的编辑。
tia .杨(蒂亚·杨(编辑/记者):现在是感恩节，总统火鸡已经被赦免了。自由和贝尔，今年来自明尼苏达州的幸运鸟在这个假期回家，你一定会很感激。大多数政治家都在做同样的事情，在538这里，我们想我们应该谈谈我们认为他们中的一些人可能感到感激的事情。
我们将从周一刚满81岁的乔·拜登总统开始。也许他的生日愿望是在2024年前有更好的投票。但是总统在这个感恩节要感谢什么呢?
利亚·阿斯卡里纳姆(利亚·阿斯卡里纳姆(政治记者):目前的赛马式民调没有预测性。
nrakich(纳撒尼尔·拉基奇，资深编辑、选举分析师):哈哈哈。
leah.askarinam:我偷了你的吗?
nrakich:你没有偷我的，但我想说，考虑到拜登的民调支持率下滑，现在问他应该感谢什么是一个尴尬的时候!
2007年，他的平均支持率已经跌破40%538的追踪器。他的支持者对他处理问题的方式非常不满，比如经济以及以色列-加沙的战争。他落后于前总统唐纳德·特朗普大多数大选民意调查.
leah.askarinam:没错。最近的民意调查给拜登带来了一些坏消息——例如，他的支持率跌至20世纪90年代以来的最低点最新的NBC民意调查，在政治家中广受尊重。但更让我感兴趣的是NBC总结了一系列其他破纪录的糟糕数字该调查包括对拜登的支持。例如，这是该民调首次发现拜登在一场假设的大选对决中落后于特朗普。民意调查者之一、共和党人比尔·麦金塔夫(Bill McInturff)告诉NBC，以色列-哈马斯战争的影响是前所未有的，因为外交事务通常不会对美国总统造成如此严重的影响。
也许拜登应该为此感到欣慰异常民意调查存在这可能是一些糟糕数据的原因，尽管从最近的趋势来看，这似乎不太可能。
nrakich:是啊。但我认为你的第一点完全正确，利亚——拜登应该感谢现在是2023年11月，而不是2024年11月。我怀疑以色列-哈马斯战争会在头条停留足够长的时间，成为2024年大选的决定性问题之一。
这是一场漫长的竞选。我们现在正处于拜登的坏消息周期中。但是在选举日之前，还有时间让更多的新闻循环来来去去。
包括一些可能对特朗普不利的新闻周期!这就是我认为拜登应该感谢的:事实上，他很可能会与特朗普竞选，而特朗普几乎和他一样不受欢迎，很可能是谁在接下来的一年里多次被定罪，谁有独特的能力增强民主基础.
如果你认为民调对拜登不利，那就看看他对前联合国大使妮基·黑利的民调吧。A福克斯新闻频道民意测验这使拜登在全国范围内落后特朗普4个百分点11分在海莉后面。A马奎特法学院民意调查这使得拜登在全国范围内(在可能的选民中)落后特朗普2个百分点12分在海莉后面。
现在，我不认为海莉会赢那么多(自1984年以来，没有人赢得过超过9个百分点的普选)。但我认为，如果共和党提名除特朗普以外的任何人，他们将是2024年赢回白宫的热门人选。
杨:此外，拜登的好消息是，他正在与某人竞选几乎尽管他不受欢迎，但这只能突显出他不如特朗普受欢迎的事实。即将迎来2020年大选，特朗普几乎和他现在一样不受欢迎，但拜登的受欢迎程度是正面的。现在拜登是不受欢迎的现任。对于他来说，这可能是个坏消息。
leah.askarinam:对，他们都很不受欢迎。但我仍然认为特朗普比拜登有更硬的上限，拜登获胜的最大威胁是选民留在家里或投票给第三方。
但就这一点而言，我要在拜登需要感谢的事情清单上加上一条，即小年选举表明，选民仍然对保护堕胎权利的信息做出了回应。A新华尔街日报-NORC民意调查我发现创纪录的55%的美国人认为女性应该可以出于任何原因堕胎。
杨:说得好，莉亚。9月份全国广播公司的民意调查我发现选民在堕胎(和医疗保健)问题上信任民主党胜过信任共和党，我们可以期待他们继续强调这一问题以提高投票率。
让我们转到赛马的另一边。纳杉尼尔，你觉得川普在感谢什么?
nrakich:哈哈，我尖刻的回答是，特朗普应该感谢他可能会与拜登竞选的事实!
我在上面为拜登说的话也适用于特朗普:如果民主党有一个更年轻、更不受欢迎的提名人，如密歇根州州长格雷琴·惠特默或参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克，特朗普将是一个严重的失败者。但相反，特朗普可能会与美国唯一一位比他更不受欢迎的政治家竞选。
leah.askarinam:我认为有一点不为人知，纳杉尼尔。我们知道拜登与特朗普在这一点上基本上是势均力敌的，因为拜登的弱点在理论上对民主党来说是可控的。他仍然可以在堕胎权和维护民主上竞选，即使选民认为作为一个人，他只是太老了，不适合当总统。他不会赢得压倒性胜利，但无论如何他肯定能赢得总统职位。
将这与拜登对更受欢迎的共和党人的胜算相比，我们知道哈利在全国舞台上表现良好的唯一原因是因为...她正在竞选总统，并且在国家舞台上表现不错。但我们不知道惠特莫或沃诺克在国家舞台上会有什么表现，直到我们看到他们中的一个出现在舞台上。
nrakich:这是公平的!
杨:同样是在拜登落后于哈利的福克斯新闻频道民调中，川普也在理论对决中领先惠特莫和副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯等民主党候选人。但正如利亚所说，这些比赛更像是假设，比如说，海利对拜登。
莉亚，你呢?特朗普还应该感谢什么?
leah.askarinam:特朗普应该感谢最新一轮投票这表明妮基·黑利在新罕布什尔州“风起云涌”,也意味着她最终进入了两位数。
换句话说，特朗普应该感谢他在共和党初选中遥遥领先!
杨:没错。虽然在与拜登的理论对决中，哈利的民调看起来不错，但在与特朗普的对决中，它看起来并不那么好。最近的一次哈佛大学卡普斯-哈里斯民意测验在一场势均力敌的初选中，登记的共和党选民中有19%的人认为她比特朗普的81%高。
nrakich:是的，我的另一个答案是，特朗普应该感谢共和党选民仍然对他如此忠诚，即使他在2020年输掉了选举。从历史上看，政党通常不想与他们失去的总统候选人有任何关系——民主党人在2016年后迅速离开希拉里，共和党人在2012年后离开米特罗姆尼。但不是2020年后的特朗普。
当然，当你想到69%的共和党人我认为拜登不是合法的赢家2020年的选举。
杨:特朗普确实讨厌失败，所以他肯定为此感到庆幸!
让我们转到立法部门。在众议院议长危机之后，在政府即将关闭的情况下，公众对国会的批准已经低至13%在最近的民意调查中—538的批准跟踪器在10月底达到全年最低点。但在连续10周的会议后，迈克·约翰逊议长的众议院设法避免(或至少推迟)了一个假期关闭将下一个联邦拨款截止日期推迟到明年1月。约翰逊需要感谢什么?
leah.askarinam:我想说，约翰逊应该感谢他赢得了足够的选票成为议长，这应该表明，围绕单一问题团结共和党会议不是不可能的。
nrakich:约翰逊应该感谢国会所有人都累了，只想回家，哈哈。
为了保持政府开放，约翰逊不得不向民主党妥协，通过一项持续决议。换句话说，他必须做前议长凯文·麦卡锡做过的事情。在这两种情况下众议院自由党团被激怒了——但是，众所周知，麦卡锡因为违法行为丢掉了工作，而约翰逊仍然保住了他的工作。
有人也可以很容易地提出动议，让出对约翰逊的席位。但我认为，在麦卡锡被驱逐后的10月份众议院的所有混乱之后，人们对这种情况的兴趣已经没有了。
leah.askarinam:那么，约翰逊应该庆幸共和党右翼把麦卡锡赶下台吗?
nrakich:我想是的，莉亚?假设成为众议院议长是一件值得感激的事情...
leah.askarinam:这确实是一个飞跃，纳杉尼尔。
但我确实认为约翰逊在正确的时间成为了正确的人，这是值得感谢的。
nrakich:不过，严肃地说，鉴于共和党人与微弱多数党合作，议长职位在我看来是一份吃力不讨好、几乎不可能完成的工作。老实说，我认为麦卡锡应该感谢他不用再为此担心了。
杨:是的，对于利亚关于共和党团结的第一点，我持怀疑态度任何人可以让共和党会议围绕支出问题团结起来。对约翰逊来说，这将是一场艰苦的战斗。甚至在他获得拨款延期通过之前，许多人就注意到这位新议长的与保守派的蜜月期似乎已经结束——这似乎在他通过之后更是如此.
leah.askarinam:没错。也许约翰逊应该感谢他的朋友和家人，因为工作将会很艰难。
杨:就这一点而言，我认为所有国会议员可能都非常感激，不仅是因为能回家过感恩节，还因为没有在圣诞节或新年之前设定政府拨款的最后期限，这要感谢约翰逊的CR将目前的拨款延长至1月19日或2月2日。这是十多年来(自2012年以来)国会首次不有12月份至少有一个政府资助截止日期。去年，它在12月23日通过了一项综合支出法案，并在2021年，仅在12月就设定了五个不同的资金截止日期。
因此，虽然他可能已经用尽了强硬保守派的绳子，但约翰逊让这一资金延期获得通过的事实可以在一段时间后为事情降温尤其是在国会暴躁的11月。他是拯救圣诞节的演讲者!给他打上烙印。
nrakich:是啊，”史密斯先生去了华盛顿“是吗不一部圣诞电影!
leah.askarinam:那么，如果约翰逊拯救了圣诞节，谁是格林奇?
杨:奇普·罗伊愿意宣称自己是格林奇.
但说真的，在这种情况下，因削减最初的支出协议而将麦卡锡赶下台的自由核心小组和反建制派随时准备成为怪杰。正如纳撒尼尔指出的那样，他们这次给了约翰逊一个通行证，但他们不高兴他在2023财年的水平上延长了资金，这是民主党人在2022年设定的。
国会的其他地方呢?你们还有什么感恩节热卖品?
leah.askarinam:好吧，既然你问了:我认为第一学期共和党议员来自纽约2024年11月面临艰难选举的人感谢众议院道德委员会的报告，该报告称“实质性的证据众议员乔治·桑托斯用竞选基金支付个人费用。桑托斯宣布他不会寻求连任，但在此之前他面临着一个重大威胁，预计国会将做出驱逐他的决议感恩节后来到舞池.
我想一些萨福克县和纽约共和党领导人也会心存感激。桑托斯在国会的滑稽表演并不好看，而其他纽约共和党人正在向选民证明，尽管他们的名字旁边有“R”，但他们是有常识的政治家，可以代表拜登选民的利益。与此同时，桑托斯据称仍有一些值得感谢的事情，包括根据众议院伦理报告，什么应该是真正神奇的皮肤，使之成为可能水疗和肉毒杆菌.
nrakich:哈哈。桑托斯应该感谢他仍然拥有自己的工作——至少目前如此。在下周就是否开除他进行投票之前，我想桑托斯也应该感谢驱逐一名成员需要三分之二的投票历史上只有五名代表被驱逐.
leah.askarinam:他已经活下来了另一个决议最近要开除他!还没完呢!
杨:这很大程度上说明了桑托斯对纽约共和党人来说有多糟糕导致最初指控驱逐他——就在共和党议长之战强调共和党的每一张选票在如此微弱的多数下有多么重要之后。
纳杉尼尔，你的感恩节离别礼物是什么?
nrakich:我认为这是一个相当冷淡的态度，但米奇·麦康奈尔应该感谢2024年参议院地图。只需要一两次翻转就可以控制参议院(取决于谁赢得副总统职位)，共和党在2020年特朗普至少领先8个百分点的州有三个很好的机会:西弗吉尼亚、蒙大拿和俄亥俄州。麦康奈尔应该是额外的感谢西弗吉尼亚州的民主党现任议员乔·曼钦决定不再竞选连任实际上确保了共和党人将获得那个席位.
抱歉，这远没有利亚的有趣。
leah.askarinam:我认为麦康奈尔应该感谢他的职位——他在混乱的众议院会议隔壁的房间里长大，他自己没有在2024年竞选连任，因为他的任期将于2026年结束。
而且，我认为可能有一长串共和党人会感谢乔·曼钦竞选总统!他公开考虑一个，哀叹拜登已经走了”太左了.”
杨:曼钦从哪里来参议院国王对总统选举搅局者来说，这将是他最大限度的权力混乱。
Why Biden should be thankful it's not 2024 yet
Welcome to 538’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
tia.yang(Tia Yang, editor/reporter): It’s Thanksgiving week, and the presidential turkeys have already been pardoned. Liberty and Bell,this year’s lucky birds from Minnesota, are surely thankful to be heading back home this holiday season. And with most politicians doing the same, here at 538, we thought we’d chat about what we think some of them might be feeling thankful for.
We’ll start at the top with President Joe Biden, who just turned 81 on Monday. Maybe his birthday wish was for some better polling heading into 2024. But what does the president have to be thankful for this Thanksgiving?
leah.askarinam(Leah Askarinam, politics reporter): That current horse-race polling isn't predictive.
nrakich(Nathaniel Rakich, senior editor and elections analyst): Hahaha.
leah.askarinam:Did I steal yours?
nrakich:You didn't steal mine, but I was going to say, it's an awkward time to be asking what Biden should be thankful for, given the polling slump he’s in!
His average approval rating has fallen below 40 percent in538's tracker. There's a lot of dissatisfaction among his base about his handling of issues likethe economyand the war in Israel-Gaza. And he trails former President Donald Trump inmost general-election polls.
leah.askarinam:Right. Recent polls have yielded some bad news for Biden — for example, his approval rating declined to his lowest ever in thelatest NBC poll, which is widely respected among politicos. But even more interesting to me was howNBC summed up a slew of other record-breaking bad numbersthat poll included for Biden. For example, it's the first time the poll found Biden behind Trump in a hypothetical general-election matchup. And one of the pollsters, Republican Bill McInturff, told NBC that the impact the Israel-Hamas war has had was unprecedented, because foreign affairs don't usually hit American presidents quite this hard.
Perhaps Biden could be thankful thatoutlier polls existand could potentially account for some of the bad numbers, although it seems unlikely given recent trends.
nrakich:Yeah. But I think your first point is absolutely right, Leah — Biden can be thankful that this is November 2023, not November 2024. I'm skeptical that the Israel-Hamas war is going to stay in the headlines long enough to be one of the deciding issues of the 2024 general election.
It's a long campaign. We're in a bad news cycle for Biden right now. But there is time for several more news cycles to come and go before Election Day.
Including some news cycles that will probably be bad for Trump! And that's what I think Biden should be thankful for: the fact that he is very likely going to be running against Trump, who isalmost as unpopular as he is, who may very well beconvicted of multiple crimes in the next year, and who has a unique ability toenergize the Democratic base.
If you think the polls are bad for Biden against Trump, take a look at his polls against former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. AFox News pollthat put Biden 4 points behind Trump nationally put him11 pointsbehind Haley. AMarquette Law School pollthat put Biden 2 points behind Trump nationally (among likely voters) put him12 pointsbehind Haley.
Now, I don't think Haley would win by that much (no one has won the popular vote by more than 9 points since 1984). But I think if Republicans nominated anyone but Trump, they would be favorites to win back the White House in 2024.
tia.yang:Plus the fact that Biden’s silver lining is that he’s running against someonealmostas unpopular as he is only underlines the fact that he's less popular than Trump. Heading into the 2020 election,Trump was nearly as unpopular as he is now, but Biden's favorability was in positive territory. Now Biden is the unpopular incumbent. That could be bad news for him when it comes to turning out his base.
leah.askarinam:Right, they're both quite unpopular. But I still think Trump has a harder ceiling than Biden, and the biggest threat to a Biden victory is voters staying at home or voting third-party.
But to that point, I'd add to Biden's list of things to be thankful for that the off-year elections indicate that voters are still responding to messaging on protecting abortion rights. Anew Wall Street Journal-NORC pollfound a record-breaking share of Americans — 55 percent — say women should be able to get an abortion for any reason.
tia.yang:Good point, Leah.A September NBC pollfound that voters trust Democrats over Republicans on abortion (and health care) more than on any other issue, and we can expect them to continue emphasizing that issue to drive turnout.
Let's move on to the other side of the horse race. Nathaniel, what do you think Trump's feeling thankful for?
nrakich:Haha, my snarky answer is that Trump should be thankful for the fact that he'll probably run against Biden!
The same things I said above for Biden go for Trump too: If Democrats had a younger, less unpopular nominee like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Sen. Raphael Warnock, Trump would be a serious underdog. But instead, Trump will probably run against one of the only politicians in America who’s more unpopular than he is.
leah.askarinam:I think there's a slight unknown there though, Nathaniel. We know that Biden versus Trump is basically a dead heat at this point, because Biden's weaknesses are, theoretically, manageable for Democrats. He can still run on abortion rights and preserving democracy, even if voters think that as a human being he is simply too old to be president. He won't win a landslide, but he can certainly win the presidency anyway.
To compare this to Biden’s odds against a more popular Republican, the only reason we know Haley fares well on a national stage is because ... she is running for president and is faring decently on a national stage. But we don't know how Whitmer or Warnock would fare on a national stage until we see one of them on it.
nrakich:That's fair!
tia.yang:That same Fox News poll that had Biden trailing Haley also found Trump leading Democratic alternatives like Whitmer and Vice President Kamala Harris in a theoretical matchup. But as Leah said, these matchups are more hypothetical than, say, Haley versus Biden.
Leah, what about you? What else should Trump be thankful for?
leah.askarinam:Trump should be thankful that thelatest round of pollingthat declares Nikki Haley is "surging" in New Hampshire also means that she finally made it into the double digits.
In other words, Trump should be thankful that he's so far ahead in the GOP primary polls!
tia.yang:Right. While Haley's polling looks good in a theoretical matchup against Biden, it's not looking so good against Trump. A recentHarvard CAPS-Harris pollof registered Republican voters found her at 19 percent to Trump's 81 percent in a head-to-head primary race.
nrakich:Yeah, my alternative answer was going to be that Trump should be thankful that Republican voters are still so loyal to him, even after he lost in 2020. Historically, parties usually want nothing to do with their losing presidential nominees — Democrats moved on quickly from Hillary Clinton after 2016, Republicans from Mitt Romney after 2012. But not Trump after 2020.
Of course, maybe that's not too surprising when you consider that 69 percent of Republicansbelieve Biden was not the legitimate winnerof the 2020 election.
tia.yang:Trump does hate losing, so he’s definitely thankful for that!
Let’s pivot to the legislative branch. In the wake of a House speakership crisis and amid a looming government shutdown, public approval for Congresshas been as low as 13 percentin recent polls —538’s approval trackerhad it at its lowest point all year at the end of October. But after 10 straight weeks in session, Speaker Mike Johnson’s House managed to avoid (or at least delay) a holiday season shutdown bypunting the next federal funding deadline to January. What does Johnson have to be thankful for?
leah.askarinam:I would say that Johnson should be thankful that he won enough votes to become speaker, which should indicate that it's not impossible to unite the GOP conference around a single issue.
nrakich:Johnson should be thankful that everyone in Congress is tired and just wants to go home, haha.
In order to keep the government open, Johnson had to compromise with Democrats and pass a continuing resolution. In other words, he had to do exactly what former Speaker Kevin McCarthy did. In both cases, theHouse Freedom Caucus was outraged— but while McCarthy famously lost his job for his transgressions, Johnson still has his.
Someone could have very easily tried to file a motion to vacate the chair against Johnson too. But I think, after all the chaos in the House in October after McCarthy was ousted, the appetite just wasn't there for that.
leah.askarinam:So, should Johnson be thankful that the right wing of the Republican Party ousted McCarthy?
nrakich:I guess so, Leah? Assuming that being speaker of the House is actually something to be thankful for ...
leah.askarinam:That is a leap indeed, Nathaniel.
But I do think Johnson ended up being the right person at the right time, and that's something to be thankful for.
nrakich:In all seriousness, though, the speakership seems to me like a thankless, nearly impossible job right now, given the slim majority Republicans are working with. Honestly, I thinkMcCarthyshould be thankful that he doesn't have to worry about it anymore.
tia.yang:Yeah, to address Leah's first point about GOP unity, I'm skepticalanyonecould unite the GOP conference around spending issues. It’s going to be an uphill battle for Johnson. Even before he got the funding extension passed, many were noting that the new speaker’shoneymoon period with conservatives seemed to have ended— and that seemseven more true after he passed it.
leah.askarinam:Right. Maybe Johnson should just be thankful for his friends and family, because work is going to be tough.
tia.yang:To that point, I think all members of Congress are probably pretty thankful not only to be home for Thanksgiving, but for the absence of a government funding deadline right before Christmas or New Year’s, thanks to Johnson’s CR that extended current funding through Jan. 19 or Feb. 2. This is the first time in over a decade (since 2012) that Congressdoesn’thaveat least one government funding deadline in the month of December. Last year it passed an omnibus spending bill on Dec. 23, and in 2021, it set five different funding deadlines in December alone.
So while he may have run out his rope with hardline conservatives, the fact that Johnson got this funding extension passed at all could do a lot to cool things down after aparticularly testy November in Congress. He’s the speaker who saved Christmas! On brand for him.
nrakich:Yeah, "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" isnota Christmas movie!
leah.askarinam:So, if Johnson saves Christmas, who's the grinch?
tia.yang:Chip Roywould love todeclare himself the grinch.
But seriously, the Freedom Caucus and anti-establishment wing that ousted McCarthy over cutting that initial spending deal stands ready to be the grinch in this scenario. As Nathaniel noted, they gave Johnson a pass this time, but they’re not happy that he extended funding at fiscal 2023 levels, which were set by Democrats back in 2022.
What about elsewhere in Congress? What other Thanksgiving hot takes do you guys have?
leah.askarinam:Well, since you asked: I think thefirst-termRepublican congressmenfrom New Yorkwho are facing tough elections in November 2024 are thankful for the House Ethics Committee report that alleged “substantial evidence” that Rep. George Santos paid for personal expenses with campaign funds. Santos announced he won't seek reelection, but he faces a major threat before that, with a resolution to expel him from Congress expected tocome to the floor after Thanksgiving.
I think some Suffolk County and New York Republican Party leaders will be thankful, too. Santos's antics in Congress just weren't a good look while other New York Republicans are making the case to voters that, despite the "R" next to their name, they're common-sense politicians who can represent Biden voters' interests. Santos, meanwhile, will still allegedly have some things to be thankful for, including, according to the House Ethics report, what should be truly fantastic skin, made possible byspa visits and Botox.
nrakich:Haha. Santos should be thankful that he still has his job — at least for now. Ahead of the expected vote on whether to expel him next week, I guess Santos should also be thankful that it requires a two-thirds vote to expel a member and thatonly five representatives in history have ever been expelled.
leah.askarinam:And he already survivedanother resolutionto expel him recently! It's not over!
tia.yang:It says a lot about how bad a look Santos has been for New York Republicans that they were the onesleading that initial charge to oust him— right after the GOP speaker battle emphasized how much every Republican vote counts with such a small majority.
Nathaniel, what's your parting Thanksgiving hot take?
nrakich:I think this is a pretty cold take, but Mitch McConnell should be thankful for the2024 Senate map. Needing just one or two flips to take control of the Senate (depending on who wins the vice presidency), Republicans have three great pickup opportunities in states that Trump carried by at least 8 points in 2020: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. McConnell should beextrathankful that Joe Manchin, the Democratic incumbent in West Virginia, decided not to run for reelection, whichvirtually assures that Republicans will pick up that seat.
Sorry, that was not nearly as fun as Leah's.
leah.askarinam:I think McConnell should be thankful for his position in general — he gets to be the grown-up in the room next door to a chaotic House conference, and he doesn’t have run for reelection himself in 2024, since his term ends in 2026.
And, I think there might be a long list of Republicans who would be thankful for a Joe Manchin presidential run! He’s openly considering one, lamenting that Biden has gone “too far left.”
tia.yang:Manchin going fromSenate kingmakerto presidential election spoiler would be a maximally chaotic power move from him.
