乔·拜登总统正在努力争取年轻选民和穆斯林美国人的支持，他们不赞成他的处理方式以色列-哈马斯战争NBC新闻和昆尼皮亚克大学最近的民意调查显示。虽然一些倡导者认为这可能是明年选举的一个关键因素，但一些外交政策和选举专家警告说，事情可能没有那么简单，离投票还有一年.

科纳传媒咨询公司的布莱恩·戈德史密斯说:“现在年轻民主党人的政治很复杂。”。"这显然是一条分界线，尤其是对于35岁以下的民主党人来说."

尽管在这些民调中，大多数美国人，无论属于哪个党派，都支持奥巴马总统与以色列的团结，但民调也显示，年轻选民更有可能同情巴勒斯坦人。

一些接受美国广播公司采访的年轻选民警告说，他们可能会叛逃到第三个政党，或者明年留在家里。

即使有一个暂时的人道主义暂停和囚犯交换协议这些选民说，鉴于以色列在哈马斯10月7日发动恐怖袭击后对该地区的无情轰炸，拜登做得不够。

“如果拜登想为加沙做些什么，那还有很长很长的路要走，也远远不是我个人需要看到的恢复对拜登作为候选人的信心，”30岁的加布里埃拉·m说，她在2020年投票给拜登。

加布里埃拉要求不要引用她的全名，因为她担心讨论一个有分歧的问题可能会引起职业反响，她说，如果在2024年出现拜登对特朗普的重演，她不会投票给任何一个人。

“在我的地方选举中，我会投票，”她告诉ABC新闻。“但我不希望(拜登)认为我的投票是理所当然的，并认为因为他是两害相权取其轻，我就会投他的票。”

根据昆尼皮亚克大学的全国民意调查11月中旬发布54%的登记选民说他们更同情以色列人，而24%的人说他们更同情巴勒斯坦人。

但是在18-34岁的年轻选民中，52%的人说他们更同情巴勒斯坦人，而29%的人说是以色列人。

一项民意调查公布上周NBC新闻在这个问题上为拜登描绘了一幅更加可怕的画面。

调查发现，只有34%的登记选民赞成他处理以色列-哈马斯战争的方式，而56%的人不赞成，在民主党人中，只有一半，51%的人赞成。年龄在18-34岁的选民中，有70%的人不赞成拜登的处理方式。

相比之下，2020年，18-29岁的选民压倒性地选择了拜登而不是唐纳德·特朗普。根据投票后民意调查当时:60%-36%。

总的来说，在过去的二十年里，与以色列人相比，民主党人更同情巴勒斯坦人，盖洛普民意测验已经找到了。

一月份，在哈马斯袭击的几个月前，民主党首次表示他们更同情巴勒斯坦人——中东专家认为这是一个变化之前向ABC新闻建议部分原因是党派之争，因为以色列政治变得越来越保守，以及黑人的命也是命等国内社会运动的影响。

本月，对政府的不满引发了一些公众抗议，包括11月15日在华盛顿特区民主党全国委员会总部前的紧张抗议，当时立法者正在大楼里，导致警察与示威者发生冲突。

另一场抗议迫使州政府官员取消了11月18日在萨克拉门托举行的加州民主党大会。

加布里埃拉说，以色列和哈马斯的战争只是她不会再次投票给总统的原因之一。“感觉他本可以在学生贷款救济、移民以及将堕胎权纳入联邦法律或同性恋权利方面做得更多，”她说。(拜登推动取消数千万人的联邦学生贷款债务被最高法院阻止，最高法院称其违宪;他将堕胎合法化的提议在国会并未获得通过。)

在这张2023年10月18日的档案照片中，乔·拜登总统在与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡讨论以色列和哈马斯之间的战争时暂停了一下。

米里亚姆阿尔斯特，通过美联社池，文件

来自Z世代的警告

本月早些时候，几个进步团体，包括“为我们的生活而游行”(March for Our Lives)、Gen-Z for Change和“日出运动”(Sunrise Movement)，给拜登写了一封公开信，警告他对战争的处理可能会降低2024年千禧一代和Z世代选民的投票率。

22岁的Gen-Z for Change的通讯主管安尼施·莫汉蒂(Anish Mohanty)告诉美国广播公司新闻网(ABC News)，在看到这些照片和中东发生的事情后，年轻人仍然很难从道德上证明自己投票给某人。

莫汉蒂说，拜登在气候变化等问题上的立场“受到我们这一代人的赞赏”，但“我们应该告诉其他年轻人，特别是来自边缘化社区的年轻人，投票给对中东局势做出贡献的人吗?”

拜登政府一再表示，它认为以色列有权自卫，并在10月7日袭击后寻求摧毁哈马斯，白宫已提议为以色列人提供数十亿美元的军事资金。

被美国定为恐怖组织的哈马斯也深深融入了加沙的平民生活，白宫试图强调以色列有义务在大量死亡的情况下努力限制平民伤亡。

拜登还推动在以色列的报复行动中向加沙提供援助。

据哈马斯控制的加沙卫生部称，超过14000人在加沙丧生，数万人受伤。据以色列总理办公室称，以色列已有超过1200人丧生。

国务卿安东尼·布林肯在11月初说:“需要做更多的工作来保护平民，并确保人道主义援助到达他们手中。”。“在过去的几周里，太多的巴勒斯坦人被杀害，太多的人遭受痛苦，我们希望尽一切可能防止他们受到伤害，并最大限度地向他们提供援助。”

卡内基国际和平基金会的高级研究员亚伦·大卫·米勒说，“我们生活在一个政府可以控制信息传递的时代。”

“照片控制着信息传递，它们不是PS过的，”他说。“我认为政府知道这一点。”

米勒说，他看到民主党和拜登政府内部越来越担忧的迹象，即以色列正在推行“过于激进的战略，而政府过于默许，”他说。

米勒说:“你有一个非常强烈的亲以色列的框架，这在华盛顿的各个选区导致了很多不愉快。”“25年来，在六位国务卿手下工作，我从未见过在国会和白宫工作人员中对一项政策表达如此强烈的异议或反对...国务院"以及其他。

以色列官员坚称，其军队正在采取措施控制平民伤亡，这很复杂，因为哈马斯战士不遵守国际法，将自己与非战斗人员分开。

然而，拜登的盟友和外部分析师表示，从当前的问题中得出2024年的预测并不那么明显。一些专家表示，鉴于特朗普在民主党选民中非常不受欢迎，与特朗普的再次对决可能会对民主党选民产生激励作用。

“我不认为四年前年轻选民对乔·拜登有多兴奋，”支持拜登的政治顾问戈德史密斯说。“但最终它们以创纪录的数量出现，因为”特朗普。

年轻选民也不像老年选民那样经常投票，老年选民更赞同拜登对以色列和哈马斯的处理，这一趋势有可能削弱年轻选民的观点可能在明年起决定性作用的论点。

根据美国人口普查局的数据，18岁至29岁的合格选民中，只有54%在2020年大选中投票。相比之下，总人口的67%。

人口普查数据显示，由于美国是一个老龄化国家，老年选民也比年轻选民多。再加上投票率较低，这削弱了他们的影响力。

“年轻选民可能会对拜登不满，所以他们不会投票给他——嗯，就像他们中的一半人可能不会那样做，”538的高级选举分析师纳撒尼尔·拉基奇说。

“我认为，在一天结束时，他们中的大多数人会意识到，如果他们想阻止特朗普，拜登是他们的最佳选择，”拉基奇补充道。

拜登竞选发言人凯文·穆尼奥斯坚持认为，总统没有把年轻选民视为理所当然。

“明年的选举对年轻人具有深远的影响，我们正在努力强调极端的MAGA议程将如何破坏年轻人的金融安全、安全和自由，以及拜登总统和哈里斯副总统如何为美国年轻人应得的未来而斗争，”穆尼奥斯在美国广播公司新闻的一份声明中说。

抛弃拜登?

一些在2020年支持拜登的穆斯林和阿拉伯裔美国人，以及生活在密歇根州等摇摆州的人，也在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时警告说，他们明年可能会袖手旁观。关于他们感受的程度，没有可靠的民意调查，但是活动家们在大声疾呼。

哈桑·阿卜杜勒·萨拉姆是明尼苏达大学的助理教授，他说他对拜登政府处理以色列-哈马斯战争的方式感到失望。他是自称“放弃拜登”团体的一员。他们不仅说他们不会投票给总统，他们还承诺积极竞选反对他。

萨拉姆告诉美国广播公司新闻，该组织“致力于”在2024年总统选举中投票，但他们将投票给谁来代替拜登仍悬而未决。

“它可能必须是一个独立的候选人。我们不知道那是谁...现在，我们真正关注的是确保我们向白宫发出的信号是明确的。

密歇根州是美国穆斯林人口最多的州之一，有大约206，000名注册穆斯林选民，比2016年增加了22%。根据Emgage一个美国穆斯林政治倡导组织。拜登在2020年仅以约15.5万票赢得该州。

“如果拜登现在进入迪尔伯恩，他将成为不受欢迎的人，”巴勒斯坦裔美国喜剧演员和进步民主活动家阿米尔·扎尔说，之前告诉ABC新闻指的是密歇根州的一个城市，11万居民中有一半是中东或北非裔。

《美国政治中的永恒》

然而，民调专家和策略师表示，选举还有好几个月才开始。他们说，拜登可怕的支持率对他来说是一个问题，但不一定是预测性的。

“很可能，年轻选民等某些核心民主党群体对他的不满导致拜登这些天的民调支持率有所下降。然而，真正的问题是，这种情况是否会持续一年——这是完全不可知的，”538的Rakich说。

“我不认为任何人可以权威或准确地说，这就是现在正在发生的事情，”前国务院中东事务副特别协调员米勒说。"如果这种情况发生在明年11月，那可能会成为一个看似合理的案例."

“我们还有一年，”米勒说，“这是美国政治中的永恒。”

Will Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war turn off young and Muslim voters in 2024?

President Joe Biden is struggling with younger voters and Muslim Americans who don't approve of the way he's handledthe Israel-Hamas war, recent polling by NBC News and Quinnipiac University shows. And while some advocates suggest that could be a key factor in next year's election, some foreign policy and elections experts cautioned that it may not be so simple,still a year away from voting.

"The politics of this with younger Democrats are complicated right now," said Brian Goldsmith, with the consulting firm Kona Media. "This is clearly a dividing line, especially for Democrats under 35."

While the president's solidarity with Israel is shared in these polls by a majority of Americans, regardless of party affiliation, the polls also showed younger voters are more likely to sympathize with Palestinians.

Some younger voters who spoke with ABC News have warned they could defect to a third party or stay home next year.

Even with the news of atemporary humanitarian pause and prisoner exchange dealin which Hamas has released some hostages from Gaza, these voters are saying Biden is not doing enough in light of Israel's relentless bombardment of the territory in the wake of Hamas' Oct. 7 terror attack.

"That's a long, long ways from what Biden could do for Gaza if he wanted to and far from what I would personally need to see to regain confidence in Biden as a candidate," said 30-year-old Gabriela M., who voted for Biden in 2020.

Gabriela, who asked not to be quoted by her full name because she worried about potential professional repercussions discussing a divisive issue, said that if it comes down to a Biden-versus-Trump repeat in 2024, she won't be voting for either one.

"In my local elections, I'll get in my ballot," she told ABC News. "But I don't want [Biden] to take my vote for granted and just assume that because he's the lesser of two evils that I'll just vote for him."

According to a Quinnipiac University national pollreleased in mid-November, 54% of registered voters said their sympathies lie more with the Israelis, while 24% say their sympathies lie more with the Palestinians.

But among younger voters, ages 18-34, 52% said their sympathies lie more with the Palestinians while 29% said the Israelis.

A poll publishedlast week by NBC Newspainted a more dire picture for Biden on the issue.

The survey found that just 34% of registered voters approved of how he is handling the Israel-Hamas war, while 56% disapproved -- and among Democrats, only half, 51%, approved. A staggering 70% of voters ages 18-34 disapproved of Biden's handling.

By contrast, voters ages 18-29 overwhelmingly picked Biden over Donald Trump in 2020,according to exit pollsat the time: 60%-36%.

Broadly speaking, Democrats have become more sympathetic to the Palestinians compared with the Israelis in the last two decades,Gallup pollinghas found.

In January, months before the Hamas attack, Democrats for the first time said their sympathies were more with the Palestinians -- a change that Middle East expertspreviously suggested to ABC Newsis driven in part by partisanship, as Israeli politics have become increasingly conservative, and the influence of domestic social movements like Black Lives Matter.

Frustrations with the administration has sparked some public outcry this month, including a tense protest on Nov. 15 in front of the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington, D.C., while lawmakers were in the building, that led to police clashing with demonstrators.

Another protest forced state party officials to cancel events at the California Democratic Convention in Sacramento on Nov. 18.

Gabriela said the Israel-Hamas war is only one reason she won't be voting for the president again. "It feels like he could have done more for student loan relief, immigration and to enshrine abortion rights in federal law or queer rights," she said. (Biden's push to cancel tens of millions of people's federal student loan debt was blocked by the Supreme Court, which said it was unconstitutional; his proposal to codify abortion access has not gained traction in Congress.)

A warning from Gen Z

Earlier this month, several progressive groups, including March for Our Lives, Gen-Z for Change and the Sunrise Movement, wrote an open letter to Biden warning his handling of the war could depress turnout among millennial and Generation Z voters in 2024.

"It's still just hard for young people to justify to themselves, morally, voting for someone after seeing these images, after seeing what's been going on in the Middle East," 22-year-old Anish Mohanty, the communications director of Gen-Z for Change, told ABC News.

Mohanty said that Biden's stance on issues like climate change is "appreciated by our generation," but "are we supposed to tell other young people, especially if they are from marginalized communities, to vote for somebody who's contributed to what's going on in the Middle East?"

The Biden administration has repeatedly said it believes Israel has the right to defend itself and seek to destroy Hamas in the wake of Oct. 7 attack, and the White House has proposed billions more in military funding for the Israelis.

Hamas, designated by the U.S. as a terrorist organization, is also deeply embedded in civilian life in Gaza -- and the White House has tried to stress that Israel has an obligation to try and limit civilian casualties amid the large death toll.

Biden has also pushed for aid to get into Gaza during Israel's retaliatory operations.

More than 14,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, and tens of thousands more have been injured. More than 1,200 people have been killed in Israel, according to the Israeli prime minister's office.

"Much more needs to be done to protect civilians and to make sure that humanitarian assistance reaches them," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in early November. "Far too many Palestinians have been killed, far too many have suffered these past weeks, and we want to do everything possible to prevent harm to them and to maximize the assistance that gets to them."

Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that "we don't live in an era where an administration can control the messaging."

"The pictures control the messaging, and they're not photoshopped," he said. "I think the administration knows that."

Miller said he sees signs of increasing concern within the Democratic Party and the Biden administration that the Israelis are pursuing "far too aggressive a strategy and the administration is far too acquiescent," he said.

"You've got a very strong pro-Israeli frame, which in various constituencies in Washington has resulted in a lot of unhappiness," Miller said. "In 25 years, working under half a dozen secretaries of state, I've never seen the degree of dissent or opposition to a policy vocalized so prominently in Congress, among White House staff ... [the] Department of State" and beyond.

Israeli officials have insisted that its military is taking steps to curb civilian casualties, which is complicated because Hamas fighters don't abide by international law in separating themselves from non-combatants.

However, Biden's allies and outside analysts said that drawing 2024 predictions from the current problems isn't so obvious. A rematch against Trump could have its own galvanizing effect on Democratic voters, given how deeply unpopular Trump is among them, some experts said.

"I don't think young voters were super excited about Joe Biden four years ago," said Goldsmith, the political consultant, who supports Biden. "But ultimately they came out in record numbers because" of Trump.

Younger voters also don't vote as often as older demographics, who have been more approving of Biden's handling of Israel and Hamas, a trend which risks undercutting the argument that younger voters' views could be decisive next year.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, only 54% of eligible voters between the ages of 18 and 29 voted in the 2020 election. That's compared to 67% of the population overall.

Census data shows that because America is an aging country, there are also simply more older voters than younger ones. Combined with lower turnout, that weakens their influence.

"Young voters might be dissatisfied with Biden and so they won't turn out to vote for him -- well, like half of them probably weren't going to do that anyway," said Nathaniel Rakich, a senior elections analyst at 538.

"I think at the end of the day, most of them will realize that if they want to stop Trump, Biden is their best choice," Rakich added.

Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz maintained that the president is not taking younger voters for granted.

"Next year's election is deeply consequential for young people, and we are working hard to highlight how an extreme MAGA agenda would devastate the financial security, safety, and freedom of young people, and how President Biden and Vice President Harris are fighting for the future that America's young people deserve," Munoz said in a statement to ABC News.

Abandon Biden?

Some Muslim and Arab Americans who supported Biden in 2020 and who live in swing states like Michigan are also warning in interviews with ABC News they could sit out next year. There's less reliable polling on the extent of their feelings, but activists are speaking out.

Hassan Abdel Salam is an assistant professor at the University of Minnesota who says he has grown frustrated with how the Biden administration is handling the Israel-Hamas war. He's part of group calling themselves "Abandon Biden." Not only do they say they won't vote for the president -- they've also promised to actively campaign against him.

Salam told ABC News the group is "committed" to voting in the 2024 presidential election but who they will vote for in Biden's stead remains up in the air.

"It may have to be an independent candidate. We don't know who that is ... right now we're really focused on just making sure that our signal to the White House is clear," he said.

Michigan, which has one of the largest Muslim populations in the United States, has some 206,000 registered Muslim voters, a 22% jump from 2016,according to Emgage, a Muslim American political advocacy group. Biden won the state in 2020 by only about 155,000 votes.

"Biden would be persona non grata if he entered Dearborn right now," Amer Zahr, a Palestinian American comedian and progressive Democratic activist,previously told ABC News, referring to a city in Michigan where half of the 110,000 residents are of Middle Eastern or North African Descent.

'An eternity in American politics'

Still, the election is many months away, polling experts and strategists said. Biden's dire approval ratings are an issue for him, but not necessarily predictive, they said.

"Probably, dissatisfaction with him among certain core Democratic groups like young voters is contributing to a bit of a polling slump these days for Biden. The real question, though, is whether this is actually going to linger for a year -- and that's the totally unknowable thing," said Rakich with 538.

"I don't think anybody can say with any kind of authority or precision that that's what's happening now," said Miller, a former deputy special Middle East coordinator at the State Department. "If this were happening next November, that might make for a plausible case."

"We're a year away," Miller said, "an eternity in American politics."