周三，众议院投票决定正式开业对乔·拜登总统的弹劾调查。三个众议院委员会中的共和党人几个月来，我一直在调查总统及其家族的商业交易，主要是他儿子亨特的交易。周三的投票给出了质询多一点法律分量但这不太可能改变委员会迄今为止的调查方式。
尽管共和党仅拥有221比213的多数席位，但众议院通过了质询决议按照政党路线，所有共和党人投票支持这项措施，所有民主党人投票反对。值得注意的是，来自拜登在2020年赢得的选区的每一位共和党代表都投票支持该法案。这可能会给他们的2024年挑战者在竞选活动中使用的潜在弹药，走向什么预计会是一场激烈的比赛为了控制国会。
尽管众议院的共和党人一致支持进行调查，但普通公众却不太确定。根据自10月份以来进行的平均民调，43%的美国人支持对总统展开弹劾调查，而41%的人反对这一举措，这是一个支持调查的微弱差距。那是更加接近的鸿沟相比之下，前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的第一次弹劾程序中，37%的人支持展开调查，54%的人反对。(然而，在对特朗普的调查开始后，这些数字迅速逆转。)
美国人勉强同意展开调查...
自10月1日以来进行的民意调查显示，支持或反对众议院对乔·拜登总统展开弹劾调查的美国人比例
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a | 33% | 39% |
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a | 42 | 39 |
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a | 47 | 37 |
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44 | 40 |
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a | 49 | 48 |
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43 | 41 |
如果民意调查在多个人群中公布结果，我们使用最广泛的可用样本(即，成年人对注册选民，注册选民对潜在选民)。
资料来源:民意调查
这些民意调查中的党派划分符合相当可预测的路线，大多数共和党人支持调查，大多数民主党人反对调查，无党派人士平分秋色。然而，有趣的是，根据历史先例，该调查似乎在民主党人中获得了比预期更多的支持。平均而言，18%的民主党人支持对拜登展开调查，而69%的人反对。党内对弹劾程序的支持程度高于9%的共和党人在众议院民主党人于2019年宣布调查时，他们反对弹劾特朗普。
公众意见将继续形成，但它将部分地对调查结果做出反应。到目前为止，整个委员会听证会和新闻稿，共和党人还没有拿出任何证据证明乔·拜登有不当行为。而亨特·拜登面临多项重罪指控因为各种税收和枪支相关的犯罪，没有证据总统本人有任何不当行为或从任何家族商业交易中获益。但是众议院共和党人希望关于调查的源源不断的消息——不管是否有结果——会继续破坏总统的已经令人沮丧的形象分散注意力对他们自己政党领导人的调查.
不过，最终，众议院真的弹劾拜登的可能性还远未确定。首先，虽然美国人可能会稍微赞成启动弹劾调查对总统来说，他们更强烈地反对实际贯彻这项法案。自10月以来的另一项平均民调显示，48%的美国人反对弹劾，42%的人支持弹劾。
...但反对弹劾到底
自10月1日以来进行的民意调查中，支持或反对众议院弹劾总统乔·拜登的美国人比例
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a | 43% | 57% |
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a | 37 | 45 |
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47 | 42 |
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42 | 48 |
如果民意调查在多个人群中公布结果，我们使用最广泛的可用样本(即，成年人对注册选民，注册选民对潜在选民)。
* YouGov/雅虎新闻调查问了两个措辞略有不同的问题;表中显示的结果是两个问题的平均结果。
资料来源:民意调查
如果简单地投票启动调查对摇摆不定的共和党人来说是一个潜在的责任，那么投票弹劾将是竞选活动中更难说服的事情。鉴于微弱多数和所有民主党人肯定会投票反对任何弹劾措施，这对众议院共和党领导层来说将是一场冒险的赌博。到目前为止，他们已经不再谈论真正的弹劾，转而出售周三的投票更像是一次事实调查任务。似乎有帮助获得支持来自某些脆弱的成员，他们还没有完全相信总统有罪(和他的选民难道不是调查或弹劾的支持者吗).
如果调查发现了迄今为止共和党人最大努力也未能找到的证据，情况可能会有所改变。但即使众议院决定弹劾，民主党控制的参议院也几乎没有机会拿出所需的67票来定罪并罢免总统。除非这种情况发生，否则周三的投票只不过是作秀。
What to make of the Biden impeachment inquiry
On Wednesday, the House of Representativesvoted to formally openan impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden.Republicans on three House committeeshave been investigating the president and his family's business dealings for months now — primarily those of his son Hunter. Wednesday's vote gives the inquirya little more legal heft, particularly with subpoena enforcement power, but it isn't likely to change how the committees have been approaching the investigation so far.
Although the GOP has just a 221-to-213 seat majority, the Housepassed the inquiry resolutionalong party lines, with all Republicans voting for the measure and all Democrats voting against it. Notably, every GOP representative hailing from a district that Biden won in 2020 voted for the bill. That could hand their 2024 challengers potential ammunition to use on the campaign trail, heading into what'sexpected to be a tight racefor control of Congress.
While Republicans in the House were united in their support of an inquiry, the general public is much less certain. According to an average of polls conducted since October, 43 percent of Americans support opening an impeachment inquiry into the President, while 41 percent oppose such a move, a narrow split in favor of the inquiry. That'sa much closer dividethan at the same point during former President Donald Trump's first impeachment process, when 37 percent supported opening an inquiry and 54 percent opposed it. (Those numbers quickly inverted after the inquiry into Trump began, however.)
Americans narrowly approve of opening an inquiry ...
Share of Americans who support or oppose the House of Representatives opening an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, in polls conducted since Oct. 1
| POLLSTER | DATES | POPULATION | SUPPORT | OPPOSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AP-NORC | Oct. 5-9 | a | 33% | 39% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | Oct. 12-16 | a | 42 | 39 |
| NORC/U. Chicago Department of Political Science | Nov. 8-20 | a | 47 | 37 |
| Morning Consult | Nov. 30-Dec. 2 | rv | 44 | 40 |
| Marist/NPR/PBS NewsHour | Dec. 4-7 | a | 49 | 48 |
| Average | 43 | 41 |
If a poll published results among multiple populations, we used the broadest available sample (i.e., adults over registered voters and registered voters over likely voters).
SOURCE: POLLS
The partisan breakdown in these polls falls along fairly predictable lines, with most Republicans supporting an inquiry, most Democrats opposing one and independents evenly split. Intriguingly, however, the inquiry seems to have more support among Democrats than one might expect based on historical precedent. On average, 18 percent of Democrats supported opening an inquiry into Biden, while 69 percent opposed it. That level of intra-party support for impeachment proceedings is higher than the9 percent of Republicanswho opposed impeaching Trump around the time when House Democrats announced their inquiry in 2019.
Public opinion will continue to take shape, but it will respond in part to what, if anything, the inquiry turns up. So far, throughoutcommittee hearingsand press releases, Republicans have yet to produce any evidence of wrongdoing by Joe Biden. While Hunter Bidenfaces multiple felony countsacross multiple jurisdictions for various tax- and gun-related offenses,there is no evidencethat the president has committed any wrongdoing himself or benefited personally from any family business deals. But House Republicansare hopingthat a steady stream of news about the investigation — regardless of its fruitfulness —will continue to damagethe president'salready dismal imageand distract fromthe investigations into the leader of their own party.
Ultimately, though, the likelihood of the House actually impeaching Biden is far from certain. For one, while Americans may slightly approve of opening an impeachmentinquiryinto the president, they're more strongly opposed to actually following through with the act. Another average of polls taken since October shows that 48 percent of Americans oppose impeachment, while 42 percent support it.
... But oppose actually following through with impeachment
Share of Americans who support or oppose the House of Representatives impeaching President Joe Biden, in polls conducted since Oct. 1
| POLLSTER | DATES | POPULATION | SUPPORT | OPPOSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSRS/CNN | Oct. 4-9 | a | 43% | 57% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News* | Oct. 12-16 | a | 37 | 45 |
| Morning Consult | Nov. 30-Dec. 2 | rv | 47 | 42 |
| Average | 42 | 48 |
If a poll published results among multiple populations, we used the broadest available sample (i.e., adults over registered voters and registered voters over likely voters).
*The YouGov/Yahoo News poll asked two questions with slightly different wordings; results displayed in the table are an average of the results from both questions.
SOURCE: POLLS
And if simply voting to open an inquiry is a potential liability for swing-seat Republicans, voting to impeach would be an even harder sell on the campaign trail. With a razor-slim majority and all Democrats sure to vote against any impeachment measure, it would be a risky gamble for House GOP leadership to make. So far, they've pulled back from any talk of actual impeachment,selling Wednesday's vote insteadas more of a fact-finding mission. That seems to havehelped draw supportfrom certain vulnerable members who aren't yet fully convinced of the president's guilt (and whose constituentsaren't fans of either an inquiry or impeachment).
If the investigation turns up evidence that has so far eluded Republicans' best efforts, that could change. But even if the House decides to impeach, there is next to no chance that the Democratic-controlled Senate will come up with the needed 67 votes to convict and remove the president. Unless and until that happens, Wednesday's vote was little more than showmanship.
