民意调查显示，2024年的大选将成为乔·拜登总统和前总统唐纳德·特朗普。

除此之外，很多事情仍不清楚。

两位候选人都在2020年的高峰期进行了非常规的竞选活动疫情冠状病毒。两人都帮助重组了各自政党的基础，以及通常谁会去投票。这一次，关于第三方和独立候选人将如何影响11月选举的猜测甚嚣尘上。

新年来临之际，这里有五个不确定因素。

拜登如何竞选?

拜登基本上是在他位于特拉华州的家中开展2020年竞选活动的，当时人们对新冠肺炎的担忧急剧上升，各州当时都在努力遏制这种担忧。

共和党人抨击他在“他的地下室”开展竞选活动，但这一策略最终取得了成效——帮助他遵守了当时的公共卫生指导，避免了公开的失态，并在大选前夕出现在活动中，为他的基础选民注入了一剂最后时刻的热情。

这一次，这一策略可能不会被收回。

但拜登现在有住在白宫的好处，过去的总统在他们自己的连任竞选中曾将白宫作为世界上最著名的政治背景。

目前还不清楚拜登计划在突击竞选和留在白宫之间取得什么样的平衡，但这种平衡可能会在拜登年龄的猜测中引起额外的审查。81岁的他是在职的最老的美国总统。

积极的竞选日程可能有助于总统反驳关于他不适合连任的指控，而玫瑰园的竞选活动可能会吸引共和党人更多的攻击，认为他失去了一个台阶。

拜登竞选发言人塞思·舒斯特在一份声明中说:“2024年将是扩大我们的行动，将总统关于民主、自由和建立一个为每个美国人服务的经济的信息直接传递给决定这场选举的选民。”“在2024年的头几个月，我们将继续扩大我们的竞选基础设施，以便到初夏时——我们预计选民会更多地考虑选举——我们的竞选活动将全速进行。”

特朗普如何竞选?

2020年大选期间，特朗普远比拜登活跃。

虽然他也取消了疫情期间的许多活动，但他比对手更早地回到竞选活动中，引发了关于他是否将自己的政治抱负置于公众健康之上的争议。

这一次，他不会有一个疫情要处理，但他可能会受到日程安排的限制，日程上排满了他目前正在打的四个案子的审判日期。

在…期间民意调查显示特朗普是赢得共和党提名的最大热门，他的审判已经在他的主要战略中发挥了作用，高级竞选顾问苏西·怀尔斯(Susie Wiles)告诉记者，竞选团队希望“尽可能多地提前(事件)”，因为潜在的法庭日期日历是“一场安排噩梦”。

“我们的目标是在一个非常关键的时刻让他离开，我们的工作是让这个时刻不那么关键，”她说，她指的是特朗普在超级星期二等激烈的初选日之前几乎锁定提名的希望。

竞选发言人张致恒也告诉美国广播公司新闻，川普“将在竞选中胜过所有人”

谁可能不投票?

一个主要的谜团可能要到选举日之前甚至之后才能解开，那就是什么样的选民选择去投票，谁选择呆在家里。

这两个政党的基础在最近的周期中变得混乱，在很大程度上沿着教育和财富的路线下降。

拜登被引向胜利得到了受过大学教育的白人选民、黑人选民和西班牙裔选民联盟的大力支持。与此同时，特朗普在没有大学学位的白人选民中获得了很大一部分支持，同时在有色男性选民中取得了进展。

民意调查显示，这些联盟中的谁将在明年成为选举的决定性因素。

最近的一次纽约时报/西恩纳学院民意调查显示拜登在登记选民中落后2个百分点，但在可能的选民中领先2个百分点。更具体地说，拜登在2020年投票的选民中领先特朗普6个百分点，而特朗普在2020年没有投票的选民中领先22个百分点。

民主党在高倾向选民中的支持趋势得到了该党在小年选举中一连串胜利的支持，小年选举通常投票率较低。

有几个变量在起作用，是什么推动选民去投票，包括对选举结果的反应罗诉韦德案的倾覆，对经济的失望以及对拜登和特朗普的个人看法，他们每个人都是反对党的主要恶魔。

候选人会和第三方一起竞选还是以独立候选人的身份参选?

关于独立和第三方候选人将如何影响一场假设但可能的特朗普-拜登复赛，谣言四起。

但是首先他们必须参加选举，而这样做说起来容易做起来难。

吉尔·斯坦(Jill Stein)在绿党路线上竞选，她将能够出现在许多选票上，这得益于她所在政党现有的选票基础设施。

但是像小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪和康奈尔·韦斯特这样的候选人是独立于任何有组织的政党的。在自己的投票线上推动“团结票”的团体“无标签”也是孤军奋战。

他们必须在每个州收集足够的签名才能出现在选票上，不同的州需要达到不同的门槛。

对于从零开始的候选人和团体来说，达到所有50个州的要求可能是困难的。韦斯特本人向政治报预测最近，他预计在40个州而不是全部50个州进行投票。

只有12个州仍在投票中:阿拉斯加、亚利桑那、阿肯色、科罗拉多、佛罗里达、夏威夷、密西西比、内华达、北卡罗来纳、俄勒冈、南达科他和犹他。

会有定义问题吗?

特朗普和拜登的复赛代表了一系列独特的情况，两个拥有全球知名度和稳固品牌的候选人相互竞争。

对取消联邦堕胎保护的失望促使民主党人在2022年的中期选举和2023年的小年选举中获胜。民调显示选民对经济持悲观态度大多数人把他们的不幸归咎于拜登.

然而，策略师们表示，鉴于对两位可能的提名人的广泛和巩固的意见，性格将在明年发挥巨大作用，特别是关于特朗普的傲慢言论、法律曝光率以及在总统选举中的作用2021年1月6日，起义以及拜登的年龄和任职资格。

“我相信拜登和特朗普竞选的基本面是固定的，”一位支持特朗普的共和党策略师本月早些时候告诉美国广播公司新闻，他要求不要被引述姓名来讨论竞选。

5 things we don't know heading into 2024 election

Polls show that the 2024 general election is shaping up to be a rematch betweenPresident Joe Bidenandformer President Donald Trump.

Beyond that, much remains unclear.

Both candidates ran unconventional campaigns in 2020 during the height of thecoronavirus pandemic. Both helped rejigger their parties' bases and who typically turns out to vote. And this time, speculation is running rampant over how third-party and independent candidates will impact the electoral calculus in November.

Here are five uncertainties heading into the new year.

How does Biden campaign?

Biden largely ran his 2020 campaign from his home in Delaware amid skyrocketing concerns over COVID-19, which states severely struggled to contain at the time.

Republicans knocked him for running his campaign from "his basement," but the strategy ultimately paid off -- helping him adhere to public health guidance at the time, avoid publicized gaffes and emerge for events just before the general election to inject his base with a dose of 11th-hour enthusiasm.

That strategy likely won't be run back this time around.

But Biden now has the benefit of living in the White House, which past presidents have used as the world's most famous political backdrop in their own reelection bids.

It remains unclear what kind of balance Biden plans on striking between blitzing the campaign trail and staying at the White House -- but that balance is likely to draw extra scrutiny amid speculation over Biden's age. At 81, he is the oldest U.S. president to be in office.

An active campaign schedule could help the president rebut allegations that he's not fit for another term, while a Rose Garden campaign could attract even more attacks from Republicans that he's lost a step.

"2024 will be all about scaling up our operation and taking the President's message of democracy, freedom, and building an economy that works for every American directly to the voters that will decide this election," Biden campaign spokesperson Seth Schuster said in a statement. "In the first months of 2024, we will continue to scale up our campaign infrastructure so that by the early summer -- when we expect voters to be thinking about the election more -- our campaign is operating at full steam."

How does Trump campaign?

Trump was far more active than Biden during the 2020 election.

While he also canceled many events during the pandemic, he returned to the campaign trail much earlier than his opponent, sparking controversies over whether he was prioritizing his political ambitions over the public's health.

This time, he won't have a pandemic to grapple with, but he could be limited by a calendar packed with trial dates in the four cases he's currently fighting.

Whilepolls showsthat Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nomination, his trials are already playing a role in his primary strategy, with Susie Wiles, a top campaign advisor, telling reporters that the campaign wants to "front load [events] as much as we can" because the calendar of potential court dates is "a scheduling nightmare."

"The goal is to take him off the trail at a very critical time and it's our job to make it less of a critical time," she said, referencing hopes for Trump to all but lock up the nomination before heavy primary days such as Super Tuesday.

Steven Cheung, a campaign spokesperson, also told ABC News that Trump "will outwork everyone on the trail."

Who might not vote?

A major mystery that may not be solved until the days leading up to, or even after, Election Day is what kinds of voters choose to go to the polls and who chooses to stay home.

The two party bases have become jumbled over recent cycles, largely falling along lines of education and wealth.

Biden was ushered to victorywith large backing from a coalition of college-educated white voters, Black voters and Hispanic voters. Trump, meanwhile, got a large swath of his support from white voters without a college degree while making gains with male voters of color.

Who among those coalitions turns out next year could be the election's deciding factor, polls suggest.

A recentNew York Times/Sienna College pollshowed Biden trailing by 2 points among registered voters -- but up by 2 points among likely voters. More specifically, Biden has a 6-point lead over Trump with voters who voted in 2020, while Trump boasts a 22-point lead among those who didn't vote in 2020.

That trend of Democrats' support among high-propensity voters is supported by a spree of wins for the party in off-year elections, which typically see lower turnout.

There are several variables at play as to what will push voters out to vote, including reactions to theoverturning of Roe v. Wade, frustrations over the economy and personal opinions on Biden and Trump, each of whom are prominent boogeymen for the opposing parties.

Will candidates running with third parties or as independents make the ballot?

The rumor mill is in full force over how independent and third-party candidates will impact a hypothetical but likely Trump-Biden rematch.

But first they have to get on the ballot -- and doing so is easier said than done.

Jill Stein, who is running on the Green Party line, will be able to appear on many ballots, benefiting from her party's existing ballot infrastructure.

But candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and Cornel West are running independent of any organized party. No Labels, the group that is pushing for a "unity ticket" on its own ballot line, also is on its own.

They will have to garner enough signatures in each state to appear on the ballot, with different states having different thresholds that need to be reached.

Hitting the requirements in all 50 states will likely be difficult for the candidates and groups starting from scratch.West himself forecasted to POLITICOrecently that he anticipated making the ballots in 40 states instead of all 50.

No Labels is still only on the ballot in 12 states: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota and Utah.

Will there be a defining issue?

A Trump-Biden rematch represents a unique set of circumstances, pitting against each other two candidates with universal name recognition and solidified brands.

Frustration over the elimination of federal abortion protections has spurred Democrats to wins in the 2022 midterms and off-year races in 2023. And polls show voters have a dour view on the economy -- andmostly blame Biden for their woes.

Yet given widespread and, strategists say, cemented opinions of the two likely nominees, character is set to play an outsized role next year, particularly regarding Trump's brash rhetoric, legal exposure and role in theJan. 6, 2021, insurrectionand Biden's age and fitness for office.

"I believe that the fundamentals of a Biden-Trump race are locked in," one GOP strategist who is supportive of Trump and asked not to be quoted by name to discuss the race, told ABC News earlier this month.