自前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)在2022年中期选举后不久发起第三次总统竞选以来，我一直在为美国广播公司新闻数字(ABC News Digital)报道2024年总统竞选。这是一场多么精彩的比赛。
91项刑事指控，一些华丽的辞藻阿道夫·希特勒使用的镜像语言，一次(可能是暂时的)从科罗拉多州的初选中除名，以及无数次的侮辱之后，特朗普仍然是连续第三次赢得共和党总统候选人提名的热门人选。
在对乔·拜登总统的年龄(他已经81岁了)的绝望和对如何处理以色列-哈马斯战争预计总统会轻易派出一小群混杂的主要敌人。
随着两个领跑者艰难前行，有很多行动试图取代他们。佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯、前南卡罗莱纳州州长妮基·黑利和前新泽西州长克里斯·克里斯蒂正在相互竞争，以成为共和党初选的主要替代者，众议员迪安·菲利普斯和玛丽安娜·威廉森正在进行不切实际的努力，以从拜登手中夺取民主党提名。
小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪，山茱萸西部和没有标签也是潜在的外卡。
但最终，战略家和选民听起来已经接受了特朗普和拜登的再次对决。
“我的意思是，我们没有太多的选择，”民主党人文斯·罗廷豪斯12月初在爱荷华州查尔斯城告诉美国广播公司新闻。
战略家和选民并不是唯一在这个迄今为止既历史性又停滞的周期中寻找意义的人。
我和其他记者完全被2024年的周期搞糊涂了，它在很大程度上仍处于停滞状态。
记者们争先恐后地寻找特朗普今年3月首次起诉的任何影响，特朗普在2016年向成人电影女演员斯托米·丹尼尔斯支付封口费款项。没有一个立即出现。特朗普否认所有不当行为。
然后他又被起诉了。再一次。再一次，所有这些都是特朗普否认非法性和缺乏选举后果。
与此同时，共和党人等待着天塌下来砸在特朗普身上，记者们等待着曾经古怪的传统智慧——刑事起诉不利于总统竞选——开始生效。
它从未发生过，特朗普指责检察官进行“政治迫害”，尽管他们否认政治动机，但他现在领先他的主要竞争对手约50个百分点538的全国民调平均值.
“每次他们给我一份虚假的起诉书，我的民调就会上升，这是以前从未发生过的，”特朗普在10月份对记者吹嘘道(尽管特朗普的数字有所波动，但随着他的法律曝光度增加，他在民调中的总体表现有所上升)。
这让记者们在一个又一个集会、一场又一场辩论中跳跃，在历史上推动选举的各种竞选机制中寻找意义。
特朗普的对手一直保持着比他更积极的旅行日程，特别是在早期初选州。他们还参加了所有他们有资格参加的辩论，包括满足共和党全国委员会的要求，即他们发誓支持共和党的最终提名人。
特朗普没有做出这一承诺，并远离辩论，辩论曾被视为总统竞选周期中的必看时刻。
在他不在的时候，记者们就像连珠炮似的、没完没了的新闻循环中的一部分，一个接一个地挑刺，因为他们意识到最终初选可能会保持不变。
与前两次辩论相比，这次辩论的特点是激烈的争论和更深入的政策讨论。但这是否会改变基本的初选动态还有待观察:民调都显示特朗普会输，”我在11月写的一次辩论后。
这并不是说辩论或传统的竞选活动没有任何影响。
海莉在民调中的上升，特别是在初选初期的州，在很大程度上归功于一系列强劲的辩论表现，以及随后的筹款活动和新罕布什尔州州长克里斯·苏努努(Chris Sununu)等共和党人的支持，她现在在艾奥瓦州、新罕布什尔州和南卡罗来纳州与德桑蒂斯并驾齐驱，或超越德桑蒂斯，获得第二名。在他的竞选团队和支持他的外部团体之间越来越公开的内斗中，德桑蒂斯已经看到他的立足点不稳了——这是过去竞选团队努力避免的传统竞选戏剧。
这种推挤引发了媒体对海莉的猜测，因为民调显示她正在上升。
“妮基·黑利在新罕布什尔州崛起”读一个标题这个月早些时候在山上。
“随着民调显示与特朗普的差距缩小，哈利推出了新的NH代言，”《新罕布什尔日报》写道.
几天前发布的哥伦比亚广播公司新闻调查显示展示了她在该州迄今为止最强的地位——落后特朗普15个百分点。另一项民意调查几天后以类似的声势发布，特朗普领先14个百分点。
最终，通过这位前总统对政治引力的所有蔑视，变得非常清楚的是，它仍然是特朗普的政党。
许多共和党人以政治领导人中罕见的钦佩之情喜欢他，让记者告诉读者和观众，每个关键时刻都相当于一棵树倒下，只是静静地落在森林的地板上。
“我认为没有人知道这个问题的答案，”一名为特朗普的一个竞争对手工作的共和党顾问告诉我，本月早些时候，当我问及反对前总统的有效信息可能是什么时，他要求不透露姓名。“我们是什么，从爱荷华州出来四个星期?特朗普的形象基本上与去年4月、5月或3月时一样，没有任何改变。”
在民主党这边也没多大区别。
2023年12月13日，美国总统乔·拜登在华盛顿特区白宫举行的国家基础设施咨询委员会会议上发表讲话。
Leah Millis/路透社，文件
平心而论，尽管未经证实的说法称，拜登在担任副总统期间和之后从其家族的商业交易中获益，但他并没有像特朗普那样面临几乎同样的法律风险。但他确实面临着年龄和健康焦虑的困扰，这经常出现在印刷和有线媒体上。
尽管如此，总统在提名的道路上还是一帆风顺。他得到了民主党全国委员会、大多数议员的全力支持，而且比菲利普斯或威廉姆森拥有更多的选民。对他年龄的担忧会对将军产生多大影响还有待观察，但这注定不会对他的初选机会产生任何影响。
即使在特朗普和拜登再次对决的可能性极大的情况下，也不清楚任何政策的推出、刑事定罪或弹劾是否会在两位拥有普遍知名度的候选人相互对抗时产生影响。
“我认为这是所有的氛围，”大卫·科切尔，一位资深的爱荷华州共和党战略家，本月早些时候说。
“有说服力的人非常非常少，政策不是他们想要的。也许那2%有说服力的人正在寻找这一点，但他们不会从这次竞选中得到它，”他说。“他们会受到很多辱骂。他们会听到很多花言巧语。他们会得到很多负面的党派偏见，“民主岌岌可危”和“拜登的犯罪家族”与政策无关。"
事实未必如此:自去年罗诉韦德案被推翻以来一直扰乱选举的堕胎可能会改变总统竞选;刑事定罪可能会让特朗普出轨;随着竞选的临近，对拜登年龄的担忧可能会激增;经济的进一步改善可能会缓解美国人对经济的悲观看法。
但是如果Kochel是对的，那将会让记者们看一部全是堆砌而没有高潮的电影-筛选真正历史性的发展，在世界上最重要的赛马比赛中几乎不起任何作用。
Covering a GOP primary with many twists and turns, but no major change: Reporter's notebook
Since former President Donald Trump launched his third presidential campaign shortly after the 2022 midterms, I've covered the 2024 presidential race for ABC News Digital. And what a race it's been so far.
Ninety-one criminal charges, a handful of rhetorical flourishes thatmirrored language used by Adolf Hitler, one (possibly temporary) removal from Colorado's primary ballot and countless insults later, Trump remains the prohibitive favorite to win the GOP presidential nomination for the third time in a row.
And amid handwringing over President Joe Biden's age (he's 81 years old) and mushrooming frustration over how to handle theIsrael-Hamas war, the president is expected to handily dispatch with a small, motley crew of primary foes.
As the two frontrunners plod along, there's been a lot of action trying to supplant them. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are battling each other to emerge as the GOP primary's main Trump alternative, and Rep. Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson are waging quixotic bids to wrest the Democratic nomination from Biden.
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West and No Labels are also looming as potential wild cards.
But in the end, strategists and voters have sounded resigned to a Trump-Biden rematch.
"I mean, we haven't got much of a choice," Vince Rottinghaus, a Democrat, told ABC News in Charles City, Iowa, in early December.
Strategists and voters aren't the only ones looking for meaning in a cycle that's so far been both historic and stagnant.
I and other journalists have been downright befuddled by the 2024 cycle, which remains largely in a place of stasis.
Reporters scrambled to search for any fallout from Trump's first indictment in March, over hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels in 2016. None immediately emerged. Trump denied all wrongdoing.
Then he was indicted again. And again. And again, all followed by Trump's denials of illegality and lack of electoral consequences.
All the while, Republicans waited for the sky to fall on Trump, and journalists waited for the once-quaint conventional wisdom of criminal indictments being bad for presidential campaigns to kick in.
It never did, and Trump, who accused the prosecutors of perpetrating a "political witch hunt" despite their denials of political motivation, is now ahead of his primary rivals by about 50 points in538's national polling average.
"[E]very time they give me a fake indictment, I go up in the polls, and that has never happened before," Trump crowed to reporters in October (while Trump's numbers have fluctuated, his overall performance in polls has increased as his legal exposure expanded).
That's left reporters bouncing from rally to rally, debate to debate, looking for meaning in the kinds of campaign mechanics that historically moved the needle.
Trump's opponents have maintained a more active travel schedule than him, particularly in the early primary states. They've also attended all of the debates they've qualified for, including by meeting the Republican National Committee's demand that they vow to support the GOP's ultimate nominee.
Trump has not made that vow -- and kept himself away from debates, once seen as must-see moments in presidential campaign cycles.
In his absence, reporters have gone through the motions of picking apart each tete-a-tete as part of a rapid-fire and never-ending news cycle, with the recognition that in the end, the primary would likely remain unchanged.
"The debate featured fireworks and more in-depth policy discussions than the two previous face-offs. But it remains to be see whether it will change the fundamental primary dynamic: Polls all show it's Trump's to lose,"I wrote in Novemberafter one debate.
That's not to say the debates or traditional campaign dynamics haven't made any difference at all.
Haley's rise in the polls, especially in early primary states, has largely been attributed to a spree of strong debate performances, along with a subsequent fundraising boost and endorsements from Republicans like New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, and she now is neck-and-neck with or leapfrogging DeSantis for second place in the crucial states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. And DeSantis has seen his footing wobble amid increasingly public infighting between his campaign and supportive outside groups -- the kind of traditional campaign drama that campaigns of yesteryear fought hard to avoid.
That jostling has set off media speculation over Haley as polls show her on the upswing.
"Nikki Haley rises in New Hampshire,"read one headlinein The Hill earlier this month.
"Haley Rolls Out New NH Endorsements as Polls Show Closing Gap With Trump,"the New Hampshire Journal wrote.
A CBS News poll released days earliershowed her in her strongest position yet in the state -- 15 points behind Trump.Another pollreleased days later to similar fanfare had Trump ahead by 14 points.
In the end, what's become abundantly clear through all of the former president's defiance of political gravity is that it's still Trump's party.
Many Republicans like him with an admiration rarely seen among political leaders, leaving journalists to tell readers and viewers that every key moment amounts to a tree falling, only to land silently on the forest floor.
"I don't think anybody knows the answer to that," one GOP consultant working for one of Trump's rivals, who asked to not be named to discuss the race, told me earlier this month when I asked what an effective message against the former president could be. "What are we, four weeks out from Iowa? Trump's image is, essentially, in the same place today as it was in April or May or March of last year and has really not changed at all."
It's not much different on the Democratic side.
To be certain, Biden, despite unproven claims that he benefited from his family's business dealings during and after his time as vice president, does not face nearly the same kind of legal exposure as Trump does. But he does face nail-biting over his age and fitness -- anxiety that constantly is featured in print and cable media.
Still, the president is on a glide path to the nomination. He has the full backing of the Democratic National Committee, most lawmakers and way more voters than Phillips or Williamson. It remains to be seen how significantly worries over his age will play in the general, but they are doomed to fail to make any dent in his primary chances.
Even in the overwhelmingly likely scenario of a Trump-Biden rematch, it's unclear whether any policy rollouts, criminal convictions or impeachment could move the needle as two candidates with universal name recognition face off against each other.
"I think it's all vibes," David Kochel, a veteran Iowa GOP strategist, said earlier this month.
"There are very, very few persuadable people, and policy is not what they're looking for. Maybe the 2% of persuadable people are looking for that, but they're not going to get it out of this campaign," he said. "They're going to get a lot of name-calling. They're gonna get a lot of rhetoric. They're gonna get a lot of negative partisanship, 'democracy's on the line' and 'Biden's crime family.' It has nothing to do with policy."
That may not necessarily be the case: Abortion, which has roiled elections since Roe v. Wade was overturned last year, could alter the presidential race; a criminal conviction could derail Trump; worries over Biden's age could spike as the race nears; further economic improvements could ameliorate Americans' sour views on the economy.
But if Kochel is right, that'll leave journalists watching a movie that's all buildup and no climax -- sifting through genuinely historic developments that make barely a ripple in the world's most important horse race.
