前新泽西州长克里斯·克里斯蒂的退出2024年共和党初选标志着提名竞争的最新变化。

尽管克里斯蒂周三发表了长篇演讲，解释了他的决定，以及他多么希望保守派不要团结在领先的唐纳德·特朗普周围，但尚不清楚克里斯蒂的选择有多大会影响共和党选民，其中大部分在民意调查中一直说他们希望特朗普成为他们党的提名人。

前南卡罗莱纳州州长妮基·黑利在新罕布什尔州与克里斯蒂争夺同样的独立和反特朗普选民，预计会受益至少在某种程度上，克里斯蒂决定退出。

调查显示，哈利正在缩小与特朗普在该州的民调差距，未申报的选民可以在共和党初选中投票。克里斯蒂在很大程度上把他整个2024年的竞选以及他直言不讳的反特朗普信息建立在赢得新罕布什尔州选民的基础上，获得了比其他地方更高的民调数字。

民调显示，自克里斯蒂暂停竞选以来，特朗普的替代方案中的支持度可能会有所下降。

与此同时，专家预计佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)不会赢得克里斯蒂的大量支持者，他试图以比哈雷或克里斯蒂更强硬的保守平台击败特朗普。

“克里斯·克里斯蒂很可能是第一个在投票前投票率达到两位数的候选人，”共和党策略师迈克·丹尼希说。

丹尼希预测，“哈利将在新罕布什尔州的民意调查中立即获得8-10个百分点的反弹”——如果属实，这将使该州的初选非常具有竞争力，尽管哈利在该国其他地方的支持度要低得多。

她的竞选团队迅速将《克里斯蒂新闻》描绘成一场胜利，暗示她将是他的决定不可避免的受益者。

“所有这一切都意味着该领域正在继续整合，它正在围绕妮基·黑利进行整合，”哈利发言人奥利维亚·佩雷斯·库巴斯在美国广播公司新闻直播节目中说。

克里斯蒂的声明是在这位前南卡罗来纳州州长的关键时刻做出的。一系列引人注目的辩论表演——根据538/华盛顿邮报/益普索民意调查-在2023年的最后几个月为她的竞选注入动力。

2024年1月5日，新泽西州前州长、2024年共和党总统候选人克里斯·克里斯蒂在新罕布什尔州阿姆赫斯特的玛丽安餐厅的一场竞选活动中发表讲话

苏菲·帕克/彭博

随着新年的开始，在爱荷华州初选投票开始前几天，哈利看到她的支持率上升到与德桑蒂斯竞争全国第二名艾奥瓦州-甚至跳过他新罕布什尔州.

538的平均民调显示，海利周三落后特朗普约12个百分点，而就在9月份，海利落后特朗普超过37个百分点。

现在，哈利希望在1月23日新罕布什尔州初选前的最后两周取得进一步进展，同时希望超越最近在竞选活动中的一系列失言，包括最初没有提到奴隶制是内战的原因，后来说，“爱荷华州开始了它，你改变了个性，你进入新罕布什尔州，他们继续下去”——这被视为对两个提前投票州的挖苦，这些州的居民对他们在日历上的位置感到自豪。

克里斯蒂的离开可能会导致他的许多支持者转向哈利:他在新罕布什尔州和密歇根州的平均支持率约为11%538分析表明海莉是克里斯蒂支持者压倒性的第二选择。

“虽然他对特朗普的攻击最终阻止了他的竞选，但他们为哈利提供了与特朗普正面交锋的机会，”新罕布什尔大学调查中心主任安德鲁·史密斯说。

尽管如此，哈利在实际赢得新罕布什尔州的初选方面面临着阻力，而不是作为一个强大的第二名。

虽然预计她会在独立选民中表现良好，但特朗普在注册共和党人中的支持仍然稳固。CNN/UNH最近的一项民意调查预测，45%的共和党初选选民将登记为未申报选民，而不是共和党人——该州的一些策略师对此表示怀疑——仍然显示哈利落后7个百分点。

“这正在形成一场共和党对独立的竞选。在我32年的职业生涯中，这从未发生过，”丹尼希说。“共和党选民坚定地支持特朗普，无党派人士开始支持哈利。哈利的竞选团队有机会推动足够多的独立选民投票给她，以抵消共和党选民的影响。如果她成功了，也不会差太多——但胜利就是胜利。”

尽管如此，也不能保证克里斯蒂会争取他的潜在选民走哈利的路，或者其他任何人的路。

在周三的演讲中，克里斯蒂特意抨击了哈利和德桑蒂斯，并表示他在该领域没有看到可行的特朗普替代者，尽管他说不能允许特朗普再次获胜，现在是他结束自己作为特朗普主要批评者的竞选的时候了。

预计克里斯蒂不会很快表态支持，在宣布暂停竞选的决定之前，他显然被一个贬低海利初选机会的热麦克风抓住了。

“她会被熏死的，”有人听到他对一个身份不明的人说。“她做不到这一点，”他补充道。

克里斯蒂还在那个火热的麦克风上说，他已经和德桑蒂斯谈过了，并称他为“石化”，尽管消息人士告诉美国广播公司新闻，两人最近几周一直在电话中交谈，德桑蒂斯在周三宣布之前给克里斯蒂打了电话。

除了新罕布什尔州和初选中的其他地方，克里斯蒂的退出预计影响甚微。

特朗普正在宣传反政府、反移民和反拜登的信息，根据538的平均民调，他在爱荷华州的党团会议中领先超过34个百分点，在哈利的家乡南卡罗来纳州也领先大约29个百分点，该州将于2月24日举行初选。

“特朗普在南卡罗来纳州很强，他真的很强。我认为妮基·黑利会紧随其后，但我仍然相信她会落后20个百分点，”南卡罗来纳州克拉伦登县共和党主席莫也·格拉汉姆周二告诉美国广播公司新闻。

克里斯蒂接下来的行动也有些神秘。

他的新书《里根会怎么做?”，将于下个月发布，给他提供了一个媒体之旅的机会，在此期间，他可以继续对特朗普和2024年的竞选发表意见。

“任何不愿意说自己不适合当美国总统的人都不适合当美国总统，”克里斯蒂在周三的演讲中说。

然而，即使他恳求他的政党远离特朗普，他也花时间澄清他与哈利和德桑蒂斯的分歧，用他的话说，就是过于支持前总统。

在演讲中，克里斯蒂提到了他最后一次退出白宫竞选是在八年前。

“对于所有参加过这场竞选的人来说，他们将自己的个人抱负置于正确的事情之上，他们最终将不得不回答我在2016年做出决定后不得不回答的相同问题，”他说。“这些问题永远不会离开。事实真的很顽固。他们留下来。”

Chris Christie just left the 2024 Republican primary. Now what?

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie'sexit from the 2024 Republican primarymarks the latest shake-up in the nominating race.

While Christie gave a lengthy speech on Wednesday explaining his decision and how much he hopes conservatives don't rally around front-runner Donald Trump, it remains unclear how much Christie's choicewill affect GOP voters, most of whomkeep saying in pollsthat they want Trump to be their party's nominee.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was battling for the same independent and anti-Trump voters as Christie in New Hampshire,is projected to benefit, at least somewhat, from Christie's decision to bow out.

Surveys have shown Haley closing the polling gap with Trump in the state, where undeclared voters can vote in the GOP primary. Christie largely based his entire 2024 bid -- along with his vocal anti-Trump message -- on winning over voters in New Hampshire, receiving higher polling numbers than elsewhere.

Polls suggest that support could now be less splintered among the Trump alternatives since Christie suspended his campaign.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, is not anticipated by experts to win over a substantial swath of Christie backers in his bid to outmaneuver Trump with a more hard-line conservative platform than Haley's or Christie's.

"Chris Christie may well be the first candidate who is polling in double digits to drop out before votes are cast," GOP strategist Mike Dennehy said.

Dennehy predicted that "Haley will get an immediate 8-10-point bounce in the polls" in New Hampshire -- which, if true, would make the state's primary very competitive despite Haley having much less support elsewhere in the country.

Her campaign quickly cast the Christie news as a win, suggesting she'll be the inevitable beneficiary of his decision.

"All of this means is that the field is continuing to consolidate, it's consolidating around Nikki Haley," Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas said on ABC News Live.

Christie's announcement comes at a critical moment for the former South Carolina governor. A string of notable debate performances -- which earned her high marks from likely primary voters, according to538/Washington Post/Ipsos polls-- injected her campaign with momentum in the final months of 2023.

As the new year began, with just days before primary voting starts, in Iowa, Haley had seen her support in polls rise to rival DeSantis for second place nationally and inIowa-- even leapfrogging him inNew Hampshire.

538's polling average showed Haley trailing Trump there by about 12 points on Wednesday after running more than 37 points back as recently as September.

Now, Haley is looking to gain further ground in the final two weeks before New Hampshire's primary on Jan. 23 while hoping to move beyond a recent string of gaffes on the campaign trail, including not initially mentioning slavery as a cause of the Civil War and later saying, "Iowa starts it, you change personalities, you go into New Hampshire, and they continue it on" -- seen as a dig at the two early voting states, whose residents pride themselves on their place in the calendar.

Christie's departure could result in many of his supporters shifting toward Haley: He was averaging roughly 11% support in New Hampshire and ananalysis by 538showed that Haley is the overwhelming second choice of Christie's backers.

"While his attacks on Trump eventually stopped his campaign, they have opened up a chance for Haley to go head-to-head with Trump," said Andrew Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Still, Haley faces headwinds in actually winning New Hampshire's primary rather than running as a strong No. 2.

While she is anticipated to perform well with independent voters, Trump's support among registered Republicans remains solid. A recent CNN/UNH poll that projected 45% of the GOP primary voters would be registered as undeclared rather than Republicans -- a figure some strategists in the state were skeptical of -- still showed Haley trailing by 7 points.

"It is shaping up as a Republican versus independent campaign. That has never happened in my 32-year history," Dennehy said. "Republican voters solidly with Trump and independents beginning to side with Haley. There is a chance the Haley campaign can push enough independents to vote for her to offset GOP voters. If she pulls it off, it won't be by much -- but a win is a win."

Still, there's no guarantee Christie will campaign for his potential voters to go Haley's way -- or anyone else's.

In his speech on Wednesday, Christie went out of his way to swipe at both Haley and DeSantis and suggested he didn't see a viable Trump alternative in the field even as he said Trump could not be allowed to win again and that it was time for him to end his own campaign as a major Trump detractor.

Christie is not anticipated to make an endorsement soon, and prior to announcing his decision to suspend his campaign, he was apparently caught on a hot mic disparaging Haley's chances in the primary.

"She's going to get smoked," he was heard saying to someone whose identity was not immediately clear. "She's not up to this," he added.

Christie also said on that hot mic that he had talked to DeSantis and called him "petrified," though sources told ABC News that the two have been talking by phone in recent weeks and DeSantis called Christie ahead of his announcement on Wednesday.

Beyond New Hampshire and elsewhere in the primary race, Christie's withdrawal is expected to have a minimal impact.

Trump, who is campaigning on an anti-government, anti-immigrant and anti-Biden message, has more than a 34-point lead in Iowa's caucuses, according to 538's polling average, and also has a roughly 29-point lead in Haley's home state of South Carolina, which holds its primary on Feb. 24.

"Trump's strong in South Carolina, he really is. I think Nikki Haley will come in a second, but I still believe she'll be 20 points behind," Moye Graham, the chair of the Clarendon County, South Carolina, GOP, told ABC News on Tuesday.

Christie's immediate next steps are also something of a mystery.

His new book, "What Would Reagan Do?," is set to be released next month, offering him the chance for a press tour during which he could continue to sound off on Trump and the 2024 race.

"Anyone who is unwilling to say that he is unfit to be president of the United States is unfit themselves to be president of the United States," Christie said in his speech on Wednesday.

However, even as he pleaded with his party to turn away from Trump, he took time to make clear his differences with both Haley and DeSantis for being, in his words, too supportive of the former president.

At one point in his speech, Christie invoked the last time he dropped out of the White House race, eight years ago.

"For all the people who have been in this race, who have put their own personal ambition ahead of what's right, they will ultimately have to answer the same questions that I had to answer after my decision in 2016," he said. "Those questions don't ever leave. The facts are really stubborn. They stay."