尽管反特朗普选民在2008年聚集在妮基·黑利周围，但唐纳德·特朗普仍坚持他的核心支持群体新罕布什尔州共和党初选周二，产生了一场与特朗普截然不同的竞选上周在爱荷华州的大胜出口民调显示，尽管前总统仍明显获胜。
美国广播公司(ABC News)根据对选票的分析预测，特朗普将在共和党竞选中击败竞争对手海利。(乔·拜登总统预计将在民主党方面获胜。)
初步出口民调结果显示，无党派选民的投票率很高，温和派选民相对较多，突显出该州通常非常规的选民特征。
47%的选民报告称自己被登记为“未申报”选民，而不是共和党选民，相比之下，2012年的记录为45%。海莉以2比1的优势赢得了那些未申报的选民。
根据新罕布什尔州的法律，新罕布什尔州的初选是开放的，允许无党派人士投票支持民主党或共和党提名人。
美国广播公司新闻的最新报道
温和派是一个强大的哈雷集团，占选民的29%，而上周爱荷华州党团会议的比例为9%。只有25%的人非常保守，而爱荷华州为52%。白人福音派占19%，而爱荷华州为55%。
出口民调显示，海莉在女性中的支持率不相上下，49%对48%。特朗普获胜的优势完全来自男性。
他在保守派、福音派、关注移民的人士、非大学毕业生以及表达最强烈经济和社会不满的人士等群体中也大获全胜。例如，他赢得了81%对国家发展方向感到“愤怒”的人的支持。
尽管特朗普在他的基础上保持强势，但有两个群体特别显示，非特朗普选民正团结起来支持海利。
在这些初步结果中，她赢得了58%的大学毕业生，相比之下，她在爱荷华州的这一群体中的份额为28%。她赢得了61%自称为独立选民的支持，较上周的34%大幅上升。
有四分之一的选民表示，在爱荷华州党团会议结束后，他们在过去一周内决定了自己的候选人。海利在后来的决胜局中以24分的优势战胜了特朗普。
在过去一个月做出决定的人中，她做得更好。但那些更早选择的选民(近十分之六的选民)以40个百分点的优势压倒性地支持特朗普。
出口民调显示，哈雷在新罕布什尔州赢得了31%的白人福音派选民，高于爱荷华州的13%。她在非大学毕业生中也有类似的进步。
爱荷华州的另一个变化是，新罕布什尔州选民中主要寻找“与我价值观相同”的候选人的人数减少了:新罕布什尔州为31%，爱荷华州为41%。更多的人在寻找一个“有合适气质”的人:新罕布什尔州为21%，爱荷华州为11%。
特朗普的最佳属性组是选民寻找“为像我这样的人而战”的人，因为十分之三的新罕布什尔州选民选择了这一组。他赢得了86%的选票。相比之下，海莉在主要寻找气质合适的候选人中赢得了86%的支持。
大约59%的选民表示，他们对特朗普成为共和党提名人感到满意，而51%的选民表示他们对海利感到满意。
根据自我报告的党派倾向，新罕布什尔州45%的选民认为自己是独立人士，接近2012年47%的纪录。
大约6%的人自称是民主党人。数据显示，大约49%的共和党初选选民认同共和党，追平了2012年的低点。
尽管35%的人认为自己是特朗普发起的MAGA运动的一部分，但这一比例低于爱荷华州的46%。51%的人否认拜登当选，而爱荷华州的这一比例为66%。
44%的人表示，如果特朗普被判有罪，他们会认为他不适合担任总统。在爱荷华州，持相同观点的人数较少，只有31%。前总统否认有任何不当行为。
80%的特朗普选民表示，他们强烈支持他们的候选人，而不是有保留地喜欢他或主要不喜欢其他人。相比之下，只有29%的海利选民强烈支持她，39%的海利选民主要不喜欢她的对手。
从四个问题来看，经济(36%)和移民(31%)的重要性占主导地位，相比之下，外交政策和堕胎的重要性分别为14%和11%。
经济情绪不佳，75%的人认为经济状况不太好或很差。与此相关的是，79%的人对当今国家的发展方式感到不满甚至愤怒。大多数选民(57%)表示，他们预计下一代美国人的生活会更糟，这一比例较2020年的20%和2016年的33%大幅上升。
特朗普在移民选民中击败了哈雷，而他们之间的竞争在经济选民中更加激烈。
关于堕胎，27%的选民表示支持联邦禁令，与爱荷华州61%的支持者形成鲜明对比。
随着时间的推移，投票后民调结果可能会发生变化。
Haley captures independents and college grads, but Trump base holds fast in NH: Preliminary exit polls
Donald Trump held fast to his core support groups even as anti-Trump voters coalesced around Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday, producing a far different race than Trump's blowout victory in Iowa last week, albeit still a clear win for the former president, exit polling shows.
ABC News projects that Trump will win the Republican race over rival Haley, based on an analysis of the vote. (President Joe Biden is projected to win on the Democratic side.)
Strong turnout by unaffiliated voters and a comparative abundance of moderates stood out in preliminary exit poll results, underscoring the state's often unconventional voter profile.
Forty-seven percent of voters reported being registered as "undeclared" rather than Republican vs. a previous record of 45% in 2012. Haley won those undeclared voters by a 2-to-1 margin.
Under New Hampshire law, the New Hampshire primary is open, allowing independents to vote for either the Democratic or Republican nominee.
Moderates, a strong Haley group, accounted for 29% of voters, compared with 9% in last week's Iowa caucuses. Just 25% were very conservative vs. 52% in Iowa. And white evangelicals were 19%, compared with 55% in Iowa.
Haley ran evenly among women, the exit poll indicated, a 49-48% split. The margin of Trump's victory came entirely among men.
He also prevailed by wide margins among groups such as conservatives, evangelicals, those focused on immigration, non-college graduates and those who expressed the deepest economic and social discontent. For example, he won 81% of those who said they're "angry" about the country's direction.
While Trump stayed strong with his base, two groups in particular showed non-Trump voters coming together for Haley.
She won 58% of college graduates in these preliminary results, compared with her 28% share in this group in Iowa. And she won 61% of self-described independent voters, up sharply from 34% last week.
A substantial one-in-four voters said they decided on their candidate within the past week, after the Iowa caucuses. Haley won these later deciders by a 24-point margin over Trump.
She did even better with those who decided in the past month. But those who chose earlier, nearly six in 10 voters, backed Trump overwhelmingly, by 40 points over Haley.
Haley won 31% of white evangelical voters in New Hampshire, up from 13% in Iowa, according to the exit poll. And she improved similarly among non-college graduates.
In another shift from Iowa, fewer New Hampshire voters were looking chiefly for a candidate who "shares my values": 31% in New Hampshire vs. 41% in Iowa. More were looking for one who "has the right temperament": 21% in New Hampshire vs. 11% in Iowa.
Trump's best attribute group was voters looking for someone who "fights for people like me" as three in 10 New Hampshire voters picked it. He won 86% of their votes. Haley, by contrast, won 86% of those looking chiefly for a candidate with the right temperament.
Roughly 59% of voters said they'd be satisfied with Trump as the party's nominee, compared to 51% who said they'd be satisfied with Haley.
Using self-reported partisanship, 45% in New Hampshire voters identified themselves as independents, near the 2012 record, 47%.
About 6% described themselves as Democrats. Roughly 49% of Republican primary voters identified as Republicans, tying the low set in 2012, according to the data.
While 35% identified themselves as part of the MAGA movement that Trump started, that was down from 46% in Iowa. Fifty-one percent were Biden election deniers, compared with 66% in Iowa.
Forty-four percent said that if Trump were convicted of a crime, they'd consider him unfit to serve as president. In Iowa, fewer, 31%, said the same. The former president denies any wrongdoing.
Eighty percent of Trump voters said they strongly favored their candidate, as opposed to liking him with reservations or mainly disliking others. By contrast, just 29% of Haley voters strongly favored her and 39% of Haley voters mainly disliked her opponent.
From a list of four issues, the economy (36%) and immigration (31%) prevailed in importance, compared with foreign policy, cited by 14%, and abortion, 11%.
Economic sentiment was sour, with 75% saying the economy is in not-so-good or poor shape. Relatedly, 79% were dissatisfied or even angry with the way things are going in the country today. And a majority of voters, 57% , said they expected life to be worse for the next generation of Americans -- up dramatically from 20% in 2020 and 33% in 2016.
Trump swamped Haley among immigration voters, while the contest between them was closer among economy voters.
With regards to abortion, 27% of voters say they favor a federal ban, a sharp difference from 61% who favored it in Iowa.
Exit poll results may change as the night progresses.
