欢迎来到538的政治聊天。下面的文字记录稍作编辑。
tia .杨(蒂亚·杨(高级编辑):联邦选举委员会最新的竞选财务披露截止日期是周三，这让我们看到了2023年最后一个季度的竞选情况，距离2024年大选大约一年。就像我们为第一三四分之一今年，我们将讨论这些报告告诉我们谁处于强势地位，谁在挣扎，谁可能根本不会参选。
我们稍后会谈到总统竞选，但让我们从参议院开始。民主党人再次主导了本季度的筹款活动，尤其是因为民主党初选中的巨额支出，备受瞩目的候选人正准备填补加利福尼亚州和密歇根州等州的空缺席位……并挑战新泽西州一名卷入丑闻的现任州长。当然，竞争已经在大选中展开，民主党人在捍卫一些竞争最激烈的席位方面处境艰难，这些席位将决定下一届参议院的多数席位。
像往常一样，国家期刊热线有一个方便的综述每位参议员候选人筹集了多少资金。你在这里最大的收获是什么?
杰弗里·斯凯利(杰弗里·斯凯利资深选举分析师):我认为讨论最多的参议院数据是亚利桑那州参议员凯尔斯滕·西内马的数据贫血的表现在2023年的最后三个月。由民主党转为独立党派的人只养了大约60万美元——这对众议院候选人来说是一个强劲的季度，但对参议院现任议员来说就不那么多了。因此，尽管她在银行有1060万美元的存款，但她缓慢的筹款可能意味着退休。同时，她的主要对手，民主党众议员鲁本·加莱戈和共和党人卡里·莱克，分别筹集了330万美元和210万美元。
莫妮卡·波茨(莫妮卡·波茨(高级政治记者):对，她没有时间做决定了。作为一名独立候选人，她需要开始收集出现在选票上的签名，和报告演出她没有已经做了。
nrakich(纳撒尼尔·拉基奇资深编辑和选举分析师):伙计们，我也想说同样的话。我认为西内马的那个数字是一个巨大的信号，表明“我要退休了。”正如莫妮卡提到的，她不得不屈服截至4月8日，已有4万多人签名虽然她可以动用1060万美元来收集选票，但她等待开始投票的时间越长，花费就越多。大选也不会是一次野餐大多数民意调查照片中她只有十几岁，正与加莱戈和莱克或另一位共和党候选人进行三方竞选。
杰弗里·斯凯利:本质上，西内马越来越像前印第安纳州民主党参议员埃文·贝赫谁让政界大吃一惊在2010年大选前退休，尽管他的银行存款超过1000万美元。他后来试图东山再起2016年的战争基金，但是失败了。
蒂亚。杨:西内马可能退休和加莱戈强劲的筹款数字可能是民主党人鼓舞人心的早期消息，他们有很多其他席位需要担心，而不必处理亚利桑那州混乱的三方竞选。
纳拉基奇:说到这个...对我来说最令人震惊的数字之一是极右翼蒙大拿州众议员马特·罗森戴尔仅筹集到98073美元。据报道他正计划投身美国参议员竞选反对民主党参议员乔恩·特斯特很快，但这样的数字让我重新考虑这是不是真的。鉴于他在全州的知名度，罗森戴尔在11月份开始了第一轮比赛，被认为是face Tester的热门选手，但他将很难击败前海军海豹突击队·蒂姆·希伊，的首选候选人在初选中拿着这么多钱。(希伊筹集了250万美元。)
杰弗里·斯凯利:考虑到罗森戴尔在2020年赢得该州当时唯一的众议院席位之前在2018年输给了特斯特，民主党人更希望罗森戴尔参加竞选(罗森戴尔现在代表蒙大拿州东部的第二国会选区该州在重新分配中获得一个席位后).作为参议院多数党政治行动委员会的附属机构，该委员会是民主党参议院之外的最高组织，一直在播放广告反对希伊已经着眼于削弱他的地位。
纳拉基奇:没错，罗森戴尔在初选中会得到民主党人“帮助”。他们插手2022年共和党的几场初选希望让实力较弱的候选人在大选中与之竞争，而大选通常对他们有利。
莫妮卡·波茨:值得一提的是测试者本人筹集了550万美元，目前坐拥1120万美元。他正在为一场艰苦的比赛做准备。
蒂亚。杨:是的，泰斯特的筹款看起来很强劲，特别是考虑到蒙大拿州较小的媒体市场投放广告的成本会更低。他的550万美元捐款(不包括贷款)实际上是所有参议员候选人中第三高的总额。
纳拉基奇:前两名都在加州吗，哈哈?
蒂亚。杨:一个是!如过去所称众议员亚当·希夫他可能是本赛季竞争最激烈的初选之一。他是三名众议院议员之一谁加入了这场竞赛以填补已故参议员黛安娜·范斯坦的席位(目前由拉蓬扎·巴特勒担任，他不会在秋季竞选)。那场比赛有什么有趣的收获吗?
纳拉基奇:哈哈，我觉得我们在2007年的比赛中说过同样的话我们所有的筹款聊天。希夫和众议员凯蒂·波特正在筹集巨额资金(许多民主党人可能认为这更适合实际的摇摆州)。11点新闻。
杰弗里·斯凯利:截至第四季度末，希夫的银行存款高达3490万美元，是排名第二的参议员候选人(俄亥俄州民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗)的两倍多。其中很大一部分要归功于希夫带来的资金从他的房子账户里。尽管如此，加州是一个在全州范围内进行竞选活动的昂贵得离谱的地方，因此希夫最有可能在从现在到3月5日前两名初选之间花费大量资金。他被领导了在大多数情况下初级轮询上个季度筹集的资金是波特的两倍多，所以看起来他很有可能坚持到11月份。这主要是他将面对谁的问题——是波特或众议员李金浔这样的民主党同僚，还是共和党人史蒂夫陈嘉炜。前者会很有趣，而后者在安全的蓝色加州会是一场闹剧。
纳拉基奇:史蒂夫·陈嘉炜前洛杉矶道奇队和圣地亚哥教士队队员!
莫妮卡·波茨:谁只筹集了大约60万美元!
蒂亚。杨:这只是民主党在初选中花费大量资金争取安全或相对安全席位的几场竞选之一。
纳拉基奇:是的，另一个值得关注的初选将在新泽西州举行，该州第一夫人塔米·墨菲筹集了320万美元众议员安迪·金筹集了180万美元。从技术上讲，这个席位仍然是民主党的现任席位，丑闻缠身参议员鲍勃·梅嫩德斯!男性刚刚长大不过，10.4万美元(其中只有1.6万美元来自个人捐赠)，所以他会发现很难发起一场真正的竞选活动。
杰弗里·斯凯利:我认为可以肯定地说梅嫩德斯不会浴火重生。因此问题是墨菲能否利用她的筹款能力和党内基础设施的支持，或者金能否以一个拥有更多小额支持的反叛者的身份获胜?我们将在新泽西州选民6月份进行初选时拭目以待。
莫妮卡·波茨:密歇根州的比赛是另一个值得关注的比赛。民主党人稍微倾向于保留参议员黛比·斯塔本诺退休后留下的席位。民主党众议员埃利萨·斯洛特金筹集了280多万美元。相比之下，共和党候选人桑迪·彭斯勒和前美国众议员迈克·罗杰斯都筹集了大约100万美元(彭斯勒几乎完全是自筹资金)。但至少斯洛特金似乎已经锁定了她的初选对手:她的民主党对手，商人纳赛尔·贝敦和演员希尔·哈勃，据报道分别只筹集了约46万美元和30万美元。
纳拉基奇:是的，哈珀参加了比赛作为演员的体面形象在节目《好医生》中。(目前处于告别季，仅在ABC上播出!)但他的筹款报告似乎暴露了他不是一个非常严肃的候选人。
杰弗里·斯凯利:密歇根州共和党初选也很难读懂，因为它太拥挤了，候选人混杂在一起。彭斯勒输掉了2018年共和党初选同一个参议员席位的现任众议员约翰·詹姆斯，而罗杰斯来自特朗普时代之前的共和党。前众议员彼得·梅耶尔正试图东山再起被带出去后在他2022年的初选中投票弹劾前总统唐纳德·特朗普。接下来是詹姆斯·克莱格，前底特律警察局长，他关注“法律与秩序”会让他变得有吸引力在共和党初选中，但是他加注了只有大约60，000美元几名高级助手离开了他的竞选团队。甚至有可能是前众议员贾斯汀·阿玛什(曾一度退党)可能会加入共和党的竞选，也是。
莫妮卡·波茨:密歇根共和党是如此的混乱...看看会发生什么会很有趣。但那是另一回事了。
蒂亚。杨:对，这似乎是一个主题。由于民主党现任者面对的是一个仍在激烈角逐的共和党领域，因此目前很难评估其中许多竞选。即便如此，第四季度的数据对他们来说看起来相当不错。例如，现任最高筹款人是布朗筹集了660万美元。这比他的共和党竞争对手高出八倍多锁定在竞争激烈的初选中.
纳拉基奇:哦(io)，那也是一场有趣的比赛。七叶树州的初选实际上很快就要开始了，只有一个半月的时间!所以对共和党候选人来说，现在是关键时刻。根据这些报告，国务卿弗兰克·拉罗斯和商人伯尼·莫雷诺处于最佳地位，每个季度都筹集了约80万美元。但是前州参议员马特·多兰手头有480万美元现金，比另外两家加起来还多。
杰弗里·斯凯利:然而，考虑到他们的个人财富(尤其是多兰，他的家族拥有克利夫兰守护者棒球队)，多兰和莫雷诺都有能力自筹资金。到目前为止，莫雷诺在共和党领域的花费也超过了其他人赢得了特朗普的支持十二月。
在任的布朗将与这三位候选人中的任何一位进行激烈的竞争，但他可能更喜欢莫雷诺民调略差对布朗比拉罗斯，全州公务员，或多兰，谁是一个远不如特朗普式的共和党。当然，警告是现在进行大选投票还为时过早。
纳拉基奇:在2024年的初选中有很多棒球联系。你喜欢看。
蒂亚。杨:足球联系怎么样!前国家橄榄球联盟球员众议员科林·奥尔雷德在得克萨斯州挑战共和党参议员特德·克鲁兹的竞选中打出了很高的数字。民主党人显然也希望向共和党现任者发起挑战，特别是在德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州——他们能在那里构成真正的挑战吗?
纳拉基奇:平稳，蒂亚，平稳。
奥尔雷德激怒了克鲁兹480万美元到340万美元，尽管克鲁兹从个人经验中知道他可以在被激怒的情况下获胜(2018年，前众议员贝托·奥鲁克筹集了一笔高达8000万美元因为他反对克鲁兹)。我更关注的是民主党州参议员罗兰·古铁雷斯仅筹集了43.3万美元在德克萨斯州这样大的州，这是一笔可怜的数目。民意调查显示奥尔雷德不一定会锁定民主党的初选，但古铁雷斯似乎无论如何都不会有资源让自己的名字出现在那里。
杰弗里·斯凯利:考虑到民主党在民主党参议员乔·曼钦(Joe Manchin)之后几乎肯定会在西弗吉尼亚州失利宣布退休他们必须守住蒙大拿州和俄亥俄州，才有机会在参议院获得50个席位。然而，如果他们想保持绝对多数，那么他们几乎肯定必须翻转德克萨斯州或佛罗里达州。“blex as”——蓝色的德克萨斯——一直是民主的梦想但佛罗里达仍有可能在根本上更具竞争力。尽管国家变得很红在2022年的期中考试中，最好记住期中考试的结果不是一个好的预测两年后的总统选举结果。
在佛罗里达州的竞选中，前众议员黛比·穆卡塞尔-鲍威尔有效地锁定了民主领域所以她已经开始关注共和党参议员里克·斯科特。她筹集了210万美元尽管这还不到第四季度470万美元的一半斯科特带来的。斯科特可以很大程度上自筹资金，正如他给自己约300万美元的奖金所显示的那样。
蒂亚。杨:嗯，我们不能不谈论选票上最大的比赛就离开。第四季度，大多数主要总统候选人都退出了竞选，但前联合国大使妮基·黑利正在努力保持她的共和党初选活动，民主党众议员迪恩·菲利普斯也是如此。海莉和菲利普斯有什么(财务)理由吗?
领跑者特朗普和乔·拜登总统在预计于11月举行的复赛中表现如何?
纳拉基奇:我普遍认为，总统候选人在大选中将获得功能上无限量的资金。但我确实认为特朗普的领导层和超级政治行动委员会在他持续的法律费用上花了多少钱值得注意:2023年总计5000万美元。这还不包括8330万美元陪审团最近命令特朗普赔偿作家e .简·卡罗尔诽谤她。如果共和党人真的提名特朗普，他们可能会遇到障碍。
莫妮卡·波茨:是啊，我觉得这是最重要的，纳杉尼尔。特别是因为特朗普在技术上仍与海莉有一场初选筹集了1700万美元在她的角落里有一个超级PAC几乎花光了近6900万美元它去年增加了。
杰弗里·斯凯利:黑利比以前多一点1400万美元的银行存款和她的竞选活动声称提出了新罕布什尔州初选后大约有400万美元。这是一个迹象，表明她不仅可能在2月24日继续前往南卡罗来纳州，而且可能会继续前往其他地方。然而，我仍然怀疑她是否会继续竞选，因为她在家乡的州输得很惨，所以最终还是有很大的可能现代史上最短的总统初选.
纳拉基奇:我也认为这个数据，由NBC新闻标记有趣的是:“她第四季度的捐款中有相当大一部分(38%)来自无法为初选捐款的捐赠者，因为他们已经达到了3300美元的捐款上限。”反正海莉的竞选也不会有什么进展，但这就是相同类型的财务不可持续性这注定了佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯的竞选失败。
杰弗里·斯凯利:说得好，纳杉尼尔。特朗普走得太远了来自小额捐助者的更多支持这表明我们在这场基于富裕程度(如教育水平)的竞选中看到了更大的党内分裂(特朗普在没有四年制学位的选民中往往比在有四年制学位的选民中赢得更多)。
至于菲利普斯在第四季度，他主要靠自筹资金来对抗拜登的历史性脚注投标。他贷款了400万美元用于他的竞选活动，同时从捐助者那里筹集了大约100万美元。他是会被压碎的在南卡罗来纳州和不在选票上所以很难说菲利普斯还能坚持多久。或许只要这位富有的前冰淇淋高管愿意承担大部分费用。
蒂亚。杨:是的，与特朗普不同，拜登不必花费任何大笔资金来抵御菲利普斯的挑战。尽管特朗普在2023年全年都在与挑战者作战(无论他们的机会有多渺茫)，但拜登的竞选活动才刚刚开始升温。不出所料，他在第四季度的支出超过了全年支出的总和。在筹资方面，他的基础相对稳固。本季度初，他手头的现金比特朗普少了约500万美元，但到年底时，他报告说手头有400万美元4600万美元特朗普的手头现金3300万美元.
杰弗里·斯凯利:有关于拜登的笔记赚不到那么多钱正如特朗普在2019年底所做的那样。但是正如纳撒尼尔所说，主要政党的提名者将有大量资金可供他们支配，考虑到总统竞选中的支出，请记住广告支出收益递减等等。这并不是说钱不重要，但主要是一方是否明显比另一方拥有更多。我猜特朗普的个人法律状况可能会影响所有附属竞选委员会，但我也很难想象共和党捐款人会让他们的党内提名人晾在一边。
莫妮卡·波茨:我认为最大的收获是今年的竞选活动可能会筹集和花费大量资金。
Which Senate candidates are winning the money race?
Welcome to 538’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
tia.yang(Tia Yang, senior editor): The latest FEC deadline for campaign finance disclosures was Wednesday, giving us a look at how campaigns fared in the last quarter of 2023, about a year out from the 2024 elections. As we did for thefirstthreequartersof the year, we’ll be discussing what these reports tell us about who’s in a strong position, who’s struggling and who might not be running at all.
We’ll touch on the presidential race later, but let’s start off with the Senate. Democrats once again dominated fundraising this quarter, not least because of big spending in Democratic primaries, with high-profile candidates squaring off to fill open seats in states like California and Michigan … and challenge a scandal-embroiled incumbent in New Jersey. And of course, the competition is already well underway in the general, where Democrats are in a tough position defending some of the most competitive seats that will determine the next Senate majority.
As usual, the National Journal Hotline has ahandy roundupof how much each Senate candidate has raised. What were your biggest takeaways here?
geoffrey.skelley(Geoffrey Skelley, senior elections analyst): I think the most-discussed Senate data point has been Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema'sanemic showingin the last three months of 2023. The Democrat-turned-independentraised only about$600,000 — which would amount to a strong quarter for a House candidate, but not so much for a Senate incumbent. So while she has $10.6 million in the bank, her slowing fundraising may point to a retirement. Meanwhile, her main opponents,Democratic Rep. Ruben GallegoandRepublican Kari Lake, raised $3.3 million and $2.1 million respectively.
Monica Potts(Monica Potts, senior politics reporter): Right, and she's running out of time to decide. As an independent, she would need to start gathering signatures to appear on the ballot,and reportingshowsshe hasn'tdone that yet.
nrakich(Nathaniel Rakich, senior editor and elections analyst): You guys, I was going to say the exact same thing. I think that number from Sinema is a giant sign saying "I'm retiring." As Monica mentioned, she has to submitmore than 40,000 signatures by April 8to make the ballot, and while she could dip into that $10.6 million to collect them, the longer she waits to get started, the more expensive it's going to be. And the general election won't be a picnic either, withmost pollsshowing her in only the teens in a three-way race against Gallego and Lake or another Republican candidate.
geoffrey.skelley:Essentially, Sinema is looking more and more like former Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, a Democratwho surprised the political worldby retiring ahead of the 2010 election even though he had more than $10 million in the bank. He latermounted a comeback attemptwith that war chest in 2016, but failed.
tia.yang:Sinema's likely retirement and Gallego's strong fundraising numbers are probably encouraging early news for Democrats, who have plenty of other seats to worry about without having to deal with a messy three-way race in Arizona.
nrakich:Speaking of which ... One of the most stunning numbers to me was far-rightMontana Rep. Matt Rosendaleraising just $98,073. He's reportedly planning tojump into the U.S. Senate raceagainstDemocratic Sen. Jon Testersoon, but numbers like that make me reconsider whether that’s true. Rosendale started the cycle as the presumed favorite to face Tester in November given his statewide name recognition, but he's going to have trouble beatingformer Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, thepreferred candidateof the GOP establishment, in the primary with that kind of cash. (Sheehy raised $2.5 million.)
geoffrey.skelley:Democrats would prefer Rosendale get into the race, considering he lost to Tester in 2018 before winning the state's then-lone House seat in 2020 (Rosendale now represents the eastern Montana-based 2nd Congressional Districtafter the state gained a seat in reapportionment). An affiliate of the Senate Majority PAC, the top outside Democratic Senate group,has been running adsagainst Sheehy already with an eye toward weakening his standing.
nrakich:True, Rosendale will have "help" from Democrats in that primary. Theymeddled in several GOP primaries in 2022in hopes of getting weaker candidates to run against in the general election, which generally worked out for them.
Monica Potts:Worth mentioning that Tester himselfraised $5.5 million and is sitting on $11.2 million. He is getting ready for a tough race.
tia.yang:Yeah, Tester's fundraising looks pretty strong, especially given that Montana'ssmaller media marketswill cost less to run ads in. His $5.5 million in contributions (excluding loans) is actually the third highest total among all Senate candidates.
nrakich:Were the top two both in California, haha?
tia.yang:One was! That wasRep. Adam Schiff, who’s in arguably one of the most competitive primaries this season. He's one of three sitting House memberswho've jumped into the raceto fill the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein's seat (currently held by Laphonza Butler, who isn’t running in the fall). Any interesting takeaways from that race?
nrakich:Haha, I feel like we've said the same thing about that race inall of our fundraising chats. Schiff andRep. Katie Porterare raising obscene amounts of money (that many Democrats probably feel would be better applied to an actual swing state). News at 11.
geoffrey.skelley:Schiff had an absurd $34.9 million in the bank at the end of the fourth quarter, more than twice as much as the next-closest Senate candidate (Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown). A large chunk of that is thanks to the money Schiff brought overfrom his House account. Nonetheless, California is a ridiculously expensive place to campaign statewide, though, so Schiff is best positioned to spend a ton between now and the March 5 top-two primary.He's ledin mostprimary pollingand raised more than twice as much as Porter last quarter, so it seems like he's in a very good position to make it to November. It's mainly a question of who he will face — a fellow Democrat like Porter or Rep. Barbara Lee, or perhaps Republican Steve Garvey. The former would be interesting, while the latter would be a snoozefest in safely blue California.
nrakich:Steve Garvey, theformer Los Angeles Dodger and San Diego Padre!
Monica Potts:Whoonly raised about $600,000!
tia.yang:And that's only one of several races where Democrats are expending a lot of funds on primaries for safe or safe-ish seats.
nrakich:Yeah, another primary to watch will be in New Jersey, where state First Lady Tammy Murphyraised $3.2 millionand Rep. Andy Kimraised $1.8 million. And that seat still technically has a Democratic incumbent,scandal-plaguedSen. Bob Menendez! Heraised just$104,000, though (only $16,000 of which came from individual donors), so he's going to find it difficult to wage a real campaign.
geoffrey.skelley:I think it's safe to say Menendez isn't about to rise from the ashes. Sothe question is, can Murphy capitalize on her fundraising prowess and support from the party infrastructure, or can Kim win as something of an insurgent with far more small-dollar support? We'll see when New Jersey voters cast their primary ballots in June.
Monica Potts:The Michigan race is another one to watch. Democrats are slightly favored to keep the seat that Sen. Debbie Stabenow is leaving open in retiring. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkinraised more than $2.8 million. In comparison, Republican candidatesSandy Penslerandformer U.S. Rep. Mike Rogershave each raised about $1 million (Pensler almost entirely through self-funding). But at least it seems like Slotkin has her primary race locked down: Her Democratic opponents,businessman Nasser Beydounandactor Hill Harper, reported raising only about $460,000 and $300,000, respectively.
nrakich:Yeah, Harper entered the race with adecent profile as an actoron the show "The Good Doctor." (Now in its farewell season, only on ABC™!) But his fundraising reports have kind of exposed him as a not-very-serious candidate.
geoffrey.skelley:The Michigan GOP primary is also very hard to read because it's so crowded and has such a motley crew of candidates. Penslerlost the 2018 Republican primaryfor this same Senate seat to now-Rep. John James, while Rogerscomes from the pre-Trump-era GOP. Former Rep. Peter Meijer is trying to mount a comebackafter getting taken outin his 2022 primary for voting to impeach former President Donald Trump. Then there's James Craig, a former Detroit police chief whose focus on “law and order”could make him appealingin a GOP primary, buthe raisedonly about $60,000 and has already hada couple of top aides leave his campaign. There's even the possibility that former Rep. Justin Amash (who left the party at one point)might jump into the Republican contest, too.
Monica Potts:And the Michigan GOPis in such turmoil... It'll be interesting to see what happens. But that's a whole other story.
tia.yang:Right, this seems to be a theme. A lot of these races are tough to evaluate at this point since Democratic incumbents are facing off against a still-winnowing GOP field. Even so, Q4 numbers looked pretty good for them. For example, the top incumbent fundraiser was Brown, whoraised $6.6 million. That’s over eight times more than any of his Republican competitors, who arelocked in a competitive primary.
nrakich:Oh(io), that's an interesting race too. The Buckeye State's primary is actually coming up quite soon, in just a month and a half! So it's crunch time for those Republican candidates. According to these reports,Secretary of State Frank LaRoseandbusinessman Bernie Morenoare in the best position, having raised about $800,000 each last quarter. Butformer state Sen. Matt Dolanhas $4.8 million cash on hand, more than the other two put together.
geoffrey.skelley:Both Dolan and Moreno are capable of self-funding, however, given their personal wealth (especially Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team). Moreno has also outspent the rest of the GOP field so far, andpivotally earned Trump's endorsementin December.
The incumbent Brown is going to have a tough race against any of those three candidates, but he might actually prefer Moreno, whohas polled marginally worseagainst Brown than LaRose, a statewide officeholder, or Dolan, who is afar less Trumpy Republican. The caveat being it's pretty early for general election polls, of course.
nrakich:Lots of baseball connections in these 2024 primaries. You love to see it.
tia.yang:What about a football connection! Former NFL player Rep. Colin Allred put up big numbers in his bid to challenge Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas. Democrats are obviously hoping to mount challenges to Republican incumbents too, particularly in Texas and Florida — could they pose real challenges there?
nrakich:Smooth, Tia, smooth.
Allred outraised Cruz$4.8 millionto$3.4 million, although Cruz knows from personal experience that he can win while being outraised (in 2018, former Rep. Beto O'Rourke raised awhopping $80 millionfor his campaign against Cruz). More notable to me is that Democratic state Sen. Roland Gutierrezraised just $433,000, a pitiful sum in a state as large as Texas.Polls indicatethat Allred doesn't necessarily have the Democratic primary locked up, but it doesn't look like Gutierrez is going to have the resources to get his name out there anyway.
geoffrey.skelley:Considering Democrats have an almost certain loss coming in West Virginia after Democratic Sen. Joe Manchinannounced his retirement, they have to hold onto Montana and Ohio to have a chance at even 50 seats in the Senate. If they want to maintain their outright majority, though, then they almost certainly have to flip either Texas or Florida. "Blexas" — Blue Texas —has long been a Democratic dream, but it's possible Florida remains more fundamentally competitive. Even though the statewent quite redin the 2022 midterms, it's good to remember that midterm resultsare not a good predictorof presidential results two years later.
In the Florida race, it looks like former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powellhas effectively locked down the Democratic field, so she's already started focusing on Republican Sen. Rick Scott. Sheraised $2.1 millionin the fourth quarter, although that was less than half the $4.7 millionthat Scott brought in. Scott can significantly self-fund, as he showed by giving himself about $3 million of that haul.
tia.yang:Well, we can’t leave without talking about the biggest race on the ballot. Q4 saw most major presidential candidates drop out of the race, but former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is fighting to keep her GOP primary campaign alive, as is Rep. Dean Phillips on the Democratic side. Do Haley and Phillips have any (financial) legs to stand on?
And how are front-runners Trump and President Joe Biden doing as they look ahead to an expected rematch in November?
nrakich:I am generally of the belief that presidential nominees will have access to functionally unlimited amounts of money for the general election. But I did think it was notable how much money Trump's leadership and super PACs spent on his ongoing legal fees:$50 million total throughout 2023. And that doesn't include the $83.3 million that ajury recently ordered Trump to paywriter E. Jean Carroll for defaming her. If Republicans do nominate Trump, they could be playing with a handicap.
Monica Potts:Yeah, I thought that was the big takeaway, Nathaniel. Especially since Trump technically still has a primary fight against Haley, whoraised $17 millionand has a super PAC in her corner thatspent nearly all of the almost $69 millionit raised last year.
geoffrey.skelley:Haleyhad a bit more than$14 million in the bank moving forward, and her campaignclaimed to have raisedaround $4 million since the New Hampshire primary. That's a sign that she could continue not only to South Carolina on Feb. 24, but perhaps beyond. I remain skeptical that she'd carry on should she lose big in her home state, however, so there's still a good chance this ends up beingthe shortest presidential primary in modern history.
nrakich:I also thought this stat,flagged by NBC News, was interesting: "A sizable chunk of her fourth-quarter haul, 38%, came from donors who cannot contribute more money for the primary, since they already reached the maximum $3,300 contribution limit." It's not like Haley's campaign was going anywhere anyway, but that's thesame type of financial unsustainabilitythat doomed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis's campaign.
geoffrey.skelley:Great point, Nathaniel. Trump has gotten farmore support from small-donor donorsthan Haley (or DeSantis), indicative of the larger intraparty splits we've seen in this race based on affluence, such as education level (Trump tends to win more among among voters without a four-year degree than among those with one).
As for Phillips, he's mostly self-funding his historical footnote bid against Biden — in the fourth quarter,he loaned$4 million to his campaign while raising roughly $1 million from donors. He isgoing to get crushedin South Carolina andisn't on the ballotin Nevada, so it's hard to say how much longer Phillips will carry on. Probably as long as the wealthy former gelato executive is willing to foot most of the bill.
tia.yang:Yeah, unlike Trump, Biden hasn't had to expend any serious money to fend off Phillips's challenge. While Trump was battling challengers (however long-shot they may be) throughout 2023, Biden's campaign is just starting to ramp up. Unsurprisingly, he spent more in Q4 than the rest of the year combined. He’s on relatively solid footing when it comes to fundraising, starting the quarter with roughly $5 million less in cash on hand than Trump but turning that around by the end of the year, when he reported having around$46 millioncash on hand to Trump’s$33 million.
geoffrey.skelley:There've been notes about Bidennot pulling in as much moneyas Trump had at the end of 2019. But as Nathaniel said, the major party nominees are going to have beaucoup money at their disposal, and given how much spending there is in presidential campaigns, keep in mind thediminishing returns on ad spendingand the like. This isn't to say that money isn't important, but it's mainly a question of whether one side has notably more than the other. I guess Trump's personal legal situation could affect that across all affiliated campaign committees, but I also have a difficult time imagining Republican donors leaving their party's nominee out to dry.
Monica Potts:I think the biggest takeaway is that the campaigns will likely raise, and spend, gobs and gobs of money this year.
