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妮基·黑利与川普争夺共和党提名的计划?赢得非共和党人的支持

2024-02-09 10:29 -ABC  -  443633

前南卡罗莱纳州州长妮基·黑利继续寻求在共和党提名竞争中击败前总统唐纳德·特朗普,在连续三场失利后她把重点放在非共和党人可以投票的州,并将目标锁定在共和党以外的选民身上,这些选民仍压倒性地支持她的竞争对手。

海莉在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时表示:“我们希望尽可能多的人加入进来。“我将为每个人服务,所以谁会足够关心这次选举并想参与其中呢?我们希望得到他们的支持。”

尽管一再失败,但海莉将她反对特朗普的竞选活动描述为在她前往南卡罗来纳州2月24日初选的路上建立“势头”,并在爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州宣传她的人数越来越多,这两个州是最早投票支持2024年共和党提名的两个州。

今年1月,海莉在爱荷华州党团会议中以微弱优势名列第三,大约一周后,她在新罕布什尔州的支持率达到43%。

新罕布什尔州的出口民调显示,她在未宣布的选民中尤其受欢迎,这些选民能够在共和党初选中投票。出口民调发现,她还得到了自称温和派的大力支持,就像她在爱荷华州党团会议上所做的那样,她在那里赢得了约三分之一自称无党派人士的支持。

相比之下,特朗普迄今在保守派和福音派选民中轻松击败了她。例如,在内华达州周二的初选中,只有注册的共和党人才能投票,海利只获得了30%的选票,实际上输给了一个奇怪的选项“这些候选人都没有”。

虽然南卡罗来纳州的开放式初选意味着注册选民能够在民主党或共和党的初选中投票,而不管他们属于哪个政党-但不是两个政党-该州的共和党选民比民主党选民活跃得多。它没有新罕布什尔州独立选民来回摇摆的传统。

民调显示,特朗普在南卡罗来纳州仍领先海利30多个百分点。根据538.

爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州的进出民调也显示,在纯粹由共和党人认定的选民中,海利轻松输给了特朗普。

海莉的竞选团队明确表示,她继续与特朗普竞争的计划包括吸引更广泛的选民——不仅是在南卡罗来纳州的公开初选中,还包括下个月即将举行公开和半公开初选的另外10个州。(与开放式初选不同,半开放式初选要求选民在投票时投出特定政党的选票。在第三种半封闭的初选中,选民在投票前必须加入某个政党。)

尽管海莉竞选团队没有公开表示他们的目标是民主党人,但这并没有阻止其中一些选民考虑支持她。

戴尔·鲍林和乔治亚·科斯表示,他们自90年代以来一直支持民主党总统候选人,他们告诉美国广播公司新闻,他们计划在1月底参加康威的集会后,在南卡罗来纳州的共和党初选中投票给海莉。

他们说,这两名女性都在2020年投票支持总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden),但现在尚未决定。他们担心总统的年龄,认为是时候给白宫注入新鲜血液了。

鲍林在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时说:“老实说,我认为拜登有点太老了。

“我只是认为我们需要一个年轻、新鲜、有很多新想法的人,”科斯补充道。

听完海莉的发言后,两人告诉ABC新闻,他们将在该州共和党初选中投票给她。

海利的竞选团队坚持认为,他们看到了说服许多非初选选民的机会,这些选民认为自己是共和党人,但可能不认为自己是本党基础中高度参与的成员,他们每次投票都会可靠地参加投票。

初选投票率历来较低,尤其是相对于大选而言。

海莉的竞选经理贝齐·安克尼周一对记者表示:“我们主要关注能够参加初选的独立人士,我们也在关注扩大参加初选的人数。”“有很多参加大选的共和党选民通常不会参加初选。“

这能增加海莉的机会吗?有些人没有被说服。

“特朗普现象在南卡罗来纳州仍然很严重,”前南卡罗来纳州议员、州长马克·桑福德在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时表示。“南卡罗来纳州共和党选民的人口统计数据与特朗普选民的数据非常吻合,可能是同一个选民。”

桑福德在2018年查尔斯顿地区国会席位的共和党初选中输给了特朗普支持的对手,此前他多次批评特朗普的财政政策。

“他已经成为一个反对体制的代理人。桑福德补充说:“许多普通共和党人觉得这个系统辜负了他们。”“不要介意特朗普在那里时没有对债务采取任何行动的事实,他们认为他将为他们而战,并反对一个操纵他们的系统。”

PHOTO:Republican presidential candidate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign rally at the Indigo Hall and Events venue, Feb. 5, 2024, in Spartanburg, S.C.

共和党总统候选人、前联合国大使妮基·黑利在竞选集会上讲话..

布兰登·贝尔/盖蒂图片社

活动人士敦促投票给海莉就是投票反对特朗普

对于一些选民和活动人士来说,他们在这个选举周期的目标是确保特朗普永远不会重返白宫,这导致他们试图在初选中全力支持哈利,以阻止他进入椭圆形办公室。

反特朗普组织Primary Pivot自称专注于民主。该组织一直在鼓励各政治派别的选民在公开和半公开的共和党初选中投票给哈雷,因为该领域基本上已经缩小到两人竞选。

领导初选的罗伯特·施瓦茨告诉美国广播公司新闻,尽管他对海莉在南卡罗来纳州击败特朗普的可能性持谨慎态度,但他希望她“幸存下来”,这样她就可以继续在更“有利的州”竞争。

Primary Pivot仍在南卡罗来纳州投入资源,包括在当地派驻工作人员,并接触不同政治意识形态的选民以支持海利。

该组织表示,他们已经发出了超过20万条短信,鼓励人们考虑他们的选择,这表明拜登将赢得该州的民主党初选,共和党的竞争更加激烈。

“(海莉)正在民调中迎头赶上。短信上写道:“请让你的投票发挥作用。

施瓦茨告诉ABC新闻,他们计划在3月5日超级星期二之前为几个州预留资源,届时许多州将同时举行初选。

来自南卡罗来纳州萨默维尔的民主党人凯利·约翰逊说,她认为没有特朗普的大选将使选民关注这些问题。

“我认为这对国家有好处,因为这将是一次更加公民的选举,”约翰逊告诉ABC新闻。“这将是关于政策的斗争,而不是谁只是在听特朗普说话,并试图弄清楚他接下来会说什么。”

但一些不想看到共和党赢得选举的民主党人对这一策略持批评态度,因为最近的民调显示,海利在一场假设的大选中击败了拜登。

例如,在最近的昆尼皮亚克民调中,海利将以47%比42%击败拜登。

“我非常希望这只是拜登和唐纳德·特朗普之间的一对一比赛。因为我觉得这给了乔·拜登获胜的最好机会,”来自南卡罗来纳州芒特普莱森特的选民小韦林·休说。

来自南卡罗来纳州萨默维尔的贾蒙·米顿说,尽管海利提出了一些有效的问题,但她也更希望拜登面对特朗普。

“如果我必须选择显然,我会选择较弱的候选人,那就是特朗普,”米通说。

但21岁的学生莉莉·泰勒来自南卡罗来纳州哥伦比亚市,她在2020年投票给拜登。她说,不是每个人都这么想。

泰勒说:“我确实有很多朋友认为自己是民主党人或自由派人士,但他们中的很多人确实喜欢尼基,所以这不一定只是投票反对特朗普。”“我认为他们中的许多人普遍认为尼基有很大的潜力。“

我不知道她会在哪个州获胜

一些主要的民主党人淡化了民主党选民真正可能左右共和党与特朗普初选进程的可能性。

加州州长加文·纽瑟姆是拜登连任竞选的代理人,他在最近的一次采访中告诉美国广播公司首席记者乔纳森·卡尔,他不相信海利能赢得足够多的非共和党选民在任何地方获胜。

“我们看到那场比赛一次又一次地上演。...我只是认为你不会在那种情况下积累足够的选票——我不知道她能赢得哪个州,包括她自己所在的州,”纽瑟姆说。

但是,他暗示说,海利坚持竞选并追求特朗普可能会有其他后果。

“看着她...抨击特朗普,这并没有让我想要。我很享受。也就是说,她说了很多我一直在说的关于特朗普的事情,”纽瑟姆说,“所以我不认为这在这方面是不健康的。”

Nikki Haley's plan to fight Trump for the Republican nomination? Win over non-Republicans

As former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley continues on in her quest to try to take down former President Donald Trump in the Republican nominating race,after three straight losses so far, she is focusing on states where non-Republicans can vote -- and targeting voters outside of a GOP base that still overwhelmingly favors her rival.

"We want to bring in as many people as we can," Haley told ABC News. "I'm going to be serving everybody, so whoever cares enough about this election and wants to be involved? We want their support."

Despite her repeated defeats, Haley has described her campaign against Trump as about building "momentum" on her way to South Carolina’s Feb. 24 primary and touted her increasing numbers from Iowa to New Hampshire, the first two states to vote for the 2024 Republican nomination.

After Haley placed a distant third in the Iowa caucuses in January, she got to 43% in New Hampshire about a week later.

Exit polls in New Hampshire showed her doing especially well with undeclared voters, who were able to vote in the Republican primary. She also got strong backing from self-described moderates, just as she did in the Iowa caucuses, where she won about one-third of self-described independents, exit polling found.

By contrast, Trump has so far handily beaten her with conservative and evangelical voters. For example, in Tuesday's primary in Nevada, in which only registered Republicans can vote, Haley only got 30% of the vote and actually lost out to the quirky option "none of these candidates."

And while South Carolina’s open primary means registered voters are able to cast their ballot in either the Democratic or GOP primaries regardless of their party -- but not both -- the state has many more active Republican voters than Democratic ones. And it doesn’t have New Hampshire’s tradition of independent voters swinging back and forth.

Polling still has Trump ahead of Haley in South Carolina by more than 30 points,according to 538.

The entrance and exit polling from Iowa and New Hampshire also shows Haley handily lost to Trump with purely Republican-identified voters.

Haley's campaign is making it clear that her plan to keep competing against Trump includes attracting a wider range of voters -- not just in South Carolina's open primary but in the 10 more states with open and semi-open primaries coming up in the next month as well. (Unlike open primaries, semi-open primaries require voters to cast a party-specific ballot when they vote. In a third kind of primary, semi-closed, voters must affiliate with a party before casting their ballot.)

Although the Haley campaign is not outwardly saying they are targeting Democrats, it's not stopping some of those voters from considering supporting her.

Dale Bowling and Georgia Koss, who said they have supported Democratic presidential candidates since the '90s, told ABC News that they're planning on voting for Haley in South Carolina's GOP primary after attending a rally for her in Conway in late January.

The two women both voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 but are now undecided, they said. They're concerned with the president's age and believe it's time for new blood in the White House.

"I think Biden's a little too old, honestly," Bowling told ABC News.

"I just think that we need somebody young and fresh, lots of new ideas," Koss added.

After hearing Haley speak, the pair told ABC News that they would be voting for her in the state's GOP primary.

Haley's campaign insists they see opportunity in trying to persuade the many non-primary voters who identify as Republicans but may not identify as the highly engaged members of their party's base, who reliably turn out for every vote.

Primaries have historically low turnouts, especially relative to general elections.

"We are looking primarily at independents who can participate in primaries and we are also looking at expanding the people who do participate in these primaries," Haley's campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, told reporters on Monday. "There are a lot of general election Republican voters who do not participate in primaries typically."

Can that boost Haley's chances? Some aren't persuaded.

"The Trump phenomenon is still very much a thing in South Carolina," Mark Sanford, a former South Carolina congressman and governor who preceded Haley in office, told ABC News. "The demographics of the base South Carolina Republican voter align well with the Trump voter and may be one and the same."

Sanford lost the 2018 GOP primary for his Charleston-area congressional seat to a Trump-backed opponent, after he repeatedly criticized Trump's fiscal policies.

"He's become a proxy going against the system. And a lot of rank-and-file Republican types feel like the system has failed them," Sanford added. "Never mind the fact that Trump didn't do anything about the debt when he was there, they see him as someone who will fight for them and fight against a system rigged against them."

Activists urge a vote for Haley is a vote against Trump

For some voters and activists, their goal for this election cycle is to ensure that Trump never returns to the White House, leading them to try to block his path to the Oval Office in the primary by putting all of their efforts behind Haley.

Primary Pivot, an anti-Trump group that describes itself as focused on democracy, has been encouraging voters across the political spectrum to vote for Haley in open and semi-open GOP primaries as the field has essentially narrowed to a two-person race.

Robert Schwartz, who leads Primary Pivot, told ABC News that although he's wary of Haley's chances of beating Trump in South Carolina, he hopes she "survives" so she can stay in the race to compete in more "favorable states."

And Primary Pivot is still investing resources in South Carolina, including having staffers on the ground and reaching out to voters of different political ideologies to support Haley.

The group said they have sent out more than 200,000 text messages encouraging people to think about their options, suggesting that Biden would win the state's Democratic primary and that the Republican race is more competitive.

"[Haley] is catching up in the polls. Please make your vote count," the texts read.

Schwartz told ABC News they plan on setting aside resources for several states leading up to Super Tuesday on March 5, when many states will hold simultaneous primaries.

Kelley Johnson a Democrat from Summerville, South Carolina, said she thinks a general election without Trump would allow voters to focus on the issues.

"I think it's good for the country, because it'll be a much more civil election," Johnson told ABC News. "It'll be fought on the policies rather than who's just listening to Trump and trying to figure out what is going to come out of his mouth next."

But some Democrats who don't want to see a Republican win the election are critical of this strategy, because of how recent polling shows Haley beating Biden in a hypothetical matchup in the general election.

In a recent Quinnipiac poll, for example, Haley would defeat Biden 47-42%.

"I very much hope that it is just a one-on-one match between Biden and Donald Trump. Because I feel like it gives Joe Biden the best chance to prevail," said Waring Hewe Jr., a voter from Mount Pleasant, South Carolina.

Jaunita Miton from Summerville, South Carolina said that although Haley brings up some valid issues, she, too, would prefer Biden to face Trump.

"If I have to choose obviously, I'm gonna choose the weaker candidate and that's Trump," Miton said.

But 21-year-old student Lilli Taylor, of Columbia, South Carolina, who voted for Biden in 2020, said not everyone is thinking that way.

"I do have a lot of friends who identify as Democrats or liberals, but a lot of them do like Nikki and so it's not necessarily just a vote against Trump," Taylor said. "I think a lot of them generally do see a lot of potential in Nikki."

'I don't know what state she can win'

Some major Democrats have played down the chance that Democratic voters could really sway the course of the Republican primary race against Trump.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a surrogate for Biden's reelection campaign, told ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl in a recent interview that he doesn't believe Haley can win over enough non-Republican voters to win anywhere.

"We've seen that game played over and over and over and over again. ... I just don't think you're going to stack enough votes in that -- I don't know what state she can win, including her own state," Newsom said.

But, he suggested, Haley sticking in the race and going after Trump could have other ramifications.

"Watching her ... take shots at Trump, that didn't leave me wanting. I was enjoying that. Meaning, she was saying a lot of the same things I've been saying about Trump," Newsom said, "and so I don't think it's unhealthy in that respect."

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