上周二凌晨2点左右，威斯康星州共和党参议员罗恩·约翰逊站在参议院发言，解释了他反对提供更多援助的原因乌克兰抵御俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在2022年发动的入侵。
约翰逊说:“我不喜欢这种现实。“弗拉基米尔·普京是一个邪恶的战犯。“但他很快补充道:“弗拉基米尔·普京不会输掉这场战争。”
这一论点——无法阻止俄罗斯总统，因此没有必要动用美国纳税人的钱来对付他——标志着共和党在21世纪90年代日益接受俄罗斯扩张主义的新阶段唐纳德·特朗普.
自特朗普赢得2016年大选以来，共和党一直在软化其对俄罗斯的立场选举在俄罗斯黑客攻击他的民主党对手后。这种转变有几个原因。其中，普京坚持自己是保守基督教价值观的国际捍卫者，共和党对海外纠葛越来越怀疑。然后是特朗普个人对俄罗斯领导人的拥抱。
现在，共和党在俄罗斯问题上的矛盾态度在战争的关键时刻阻碍了对乌克兰的额外援助。
参议院上周以70票对29票通过了一项包括向乌克兰提供610亿美元援助的一揽子对外援助计划，但约翰逊是大多数共和党人中投票反对该法案的一员，此前他们在深夜阻止了该法案。在共和党控制的众议院，议长迈克·约翰逊表示，尽管乌克兰军方警告称弹药和火炮严重短缺，但众议院不会“仓促”通过该法案。
许多共和党人公开表示失望，因为他们的同事看不到帮助乌克兰的好处。普京及其盟友一直寄希望于厌倦援助基辅的民主国家，普京的共和党批评者警告说，东欧的北约国家可能会成为俄罗斯的目标，因为俄罗斯认为美国不会反击。
“普京正在失败，”北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员托姆·蒂利斯在约翰逊演讲前发言说。“这不是僵局。”肯塔基州参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔是支持该计划的22名共和党参议员之一，而26名参议员反对该计划。
上周五，俄罗斯反对派人士、反腐败倡导者阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼(Alexei Navalny)在狱中死亡，突显了党内的分歧。美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)和其他世界领导人将此事归咎于普京。值得注意的是，特朗普周一首次公开评论纳瓦尔尼的名字。
特朗普没有表示同情或试图指责，他在Truth Social上发文称，“阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼的突然去世让我越来越意识到我们国家正在发生什么。这是一个缓慢而稳定的过程，扭曲、激进的左翼政客、检察官和法官将我们引向毁灭之路。”
特朗普的共和党总统初选对手妮基·黑利周一表示，特朗普支持普京是“站在暴徒一边”。
蒂利斯在一篇帖子中对纳瓦尔尼的死做出了回应，“历史不会善待美国那些为普京道歉并赞扬俄罗斯专制的人。”
众议院议长约翰逊发表声明称普京为“邪恶的独裁者”，并承诺他“将遭到一致反对”，但他没有提出任何向乌克兰提供援助的方式。
在共和党内部，对抗俄罗斯的怀疑者似乎越来越多。
上周投票结束后，2022年当选的密苏里州参议员埃里克·施密特(Eric Schmitt)在社交媒体网站X上发帖称:“几乎所有55岁以下的共和党参议员都对这项美国最新法案投了反对票。”“自2018年以来当选的17人中有15人投了反对票。情况变化得不够快。”
那些反对额外援助乌克兰的人愤怒地指责他们在做普京的工作。他们声称他们正在冷静地考虑是否值得花钱帮助国家。
“如果你反对给另一个国家一张空白支票，我想那会让你成为俄罗斯人，”阿拉巴马州参议员汤米·图贝维尔在参议院发言时说，此前他发表了保守派评论员塔克·卡尔森最近对普京的有争议的采访，表明“俄罗斯希望和平”与“DC战争贩子”相反
有代表性的马特·盖兹众议院乌克兰援助的主要反对者称，这场运动是“我的政党从新保守主义向外交政策现实主义的一代转变。”
周六晚上在密歇根州沃特福德镇对等待观看特朗普演讲的选民进行采访时，没有人称赞普京。但没有人愿意花更多的钱与他对抗，相信特朗普会处理这位俄罗斯领导人。
康奈尔大学政治学家道格拉斯·克里纳表示，即使在特朗普之前，共和党选民也在发出对海外冲突的不满信号。这是特朗普2016年承诺避免“愚蠢战争”引起共鸣的原因之一。
“其中一些可能是共和党基础的关键部分发生了自下而上的变化，”克里纳说，“还有一部分反映了特朗普对这一基础的控制以及他以戏剧性方式影响其观点和政策偏好的能力。”
特朗普长期以来一直称赞普京，称他入侵乌克兰是“聪明的”和“精明的”，并回忆起本月他曾告诉国防支出不足的北约成员国，他将“鼓励”俄罗斯对他们“为所欲为”。几天后，他重申了这一威胁。
尽管共和党内部不愿意继续支持乌克兰，但俄罗斯在美国仍然非常不受欢迎。2023年7月的盖洛普民意调查发现，只有5%的人对普京有好感，其中包括7%的共和党人。
但普京将自己的国家定位为基督教保守主义和抵制性少数群体权利的象征，同时将自己描绘成男性力量的化身。这一组合吸引了整个西方世界的民粹主义保守派。卡尔森最近的俄罗斯之行证明了普京在右翼部分的吸引力，在那之后，这位保守派主持人发布了欣赏莫斯科地铁和超市的视频，他说“这会让你激进地反对我们的领导人。”
“苏联的目标是成为左翼思想的灯塔，”西北大学教授奥尔加·卡门丘克说。“俄罗斯现在是保守思想的灯塔。“
卡门丘克说，这最明显的不是普京在美国的民调数字，而是共和党对乌克兰的支持日益减弱。皮尤研究中心(Pew Research)去年12月的一项民意调查显示，约一半的共和党人表示，在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰问题上，美国向乌克兰提供了“过多”支持。这一比例高于2022年3月进行的一项皮尤民意调查的9%，当时俄罗斯入侵仅几周。
当普京攻击乌克兰时，遭到了两党的谴责。即使在一年前，国会中的大多数共和党人也承诺支持。但大约在同一时间，特朗普还在感叹美国领导人是送援助的“冤大头”。
到了秋天，该党分裂了。共和党人拒绝将另一轮乌克兰资金纳入政府支出法案，坚称民主党人需要纳入一项边境安全措施以赢得他们的支持。
在特朗普谴责妥协的边境提案后，共和党人否决了该法案，使乌克兰的支持者别无选择，只能将援助作为以色列和台湾额外资金的外国援助计划的一部分。
几位俄罗斯问题专家指出，共和党反对乌克兰援助的言论可能与普京的言论如出一辙——乌克兰腐败并将浪费金钱，美国无法将目光投向其边界之外，俄罗斯的胜利是必然的。
乔治·华盛顿大学政治学家亨利·黑尔在谈到普京时说:“他试图营造一种他永远不会被打败的感觉，所以根本不要尝试。”
对援助乌克兰持怀疑态度的人认为，这场战争已经重创了俄罗斯军队，普京将无法针对其他欧洲国家。
特朗普的前管理和预算办公室主任、现任复兴美国中心(Center for Renewing America)主席拉塞尔·沃特(Russell Vought)说，“俄罗斯在过去两年中表明，他们没有能力进军西欧。”该中心反对向乌克兰提供额外资金。
但一些专家指出，普京暗示了夺回大部分前苏联领土的计划，其中可能包括立陶宛和爱沙尼亚等北约国家，根据条约，美国有义务进行军事防御。
约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院教授谢尔盖·拉琴科指出，俄罗斯几十年来一直希望美国对保护欧洲失去兴趣:“这是斯大林的梦想，美国只会退到西半球。”
Stalled US aid for Ukraine underscores GOP's shift away from confronting Russia
At about 2 a.m. last Tuesday, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin stood on the Senate floor and explained why he opposed sending more aid to helpUkrainefend off the invasion launched in 2022 by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I don't like this reality," Johnson said. “Vladimir Putin is an evil war criminal.” But he quickly added: “Vladimir Putin will not lose this war.”
That argument — that the Russian president cannot be stopped so there's no point in using American taxpayer dollars against him — marks a new stage in the Republican Party's growing acceptance of Russian expansionism in the age ofDonald Trump.
The GOP has been softening its stance on Russia ever since Trump won the 2016electionfollowing Russian hacking of his Democratic opponents. There are several reasons for the shift. Among them, Putin is holding himself out as an international champion of conservative Christian values and the GOP is growing increasingly skeptical of overseas entanglements. Then there's Trump's personal embrace of the Russian leader.
Now the GOP's ambivalence on Russia has stalled additional aid to Ukraine at a pivotal time in the war.
The Senate last week passed a foreign aid package that included $61 billion for Ukraine on a 70-29 vote, but Johnson was one of a majority of the Republicans to vote against the bill after their late-night stand to block it. In the Republican-controlled House, Speaker Mike Johnson said his chamber will not be “rushed” to pass the measure, even as Ukraine's military warns of dire shortages of ammunition and artillery.
Many Republicans are openly frustrated that their colleagues don't see the benefits of helping Ukraine. Putin and his allies have banked on democracies wearying of aiding Kyiv, and Putin's GOP critics warn that NATO countries in eastern Europe could become targets of an emboldened Russia that believes the U.S. won't counter it.
“Putin is losing,” Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina said on the floor before Johnson’s speech. “This is not a stalemate.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky was one of 22 Republican senators to back the package, while 26 opposed it.
The divide within the party was on stark display Friday with the prison death of Russian opposition figure and anti-corruption advocate Alexei Navalny, which President Joe Biden and other world leaders blamed on Putin. Trump notably stood aside from that chorus Monday in his first public comment on the matter that referred to Navalny by name.
Offering no sympathy or attempt to affix blame, Trump posted on Truth Social that the “sudden death of Alexei Navalny has made me more and more aware of what is happening in our Country. It is a slow, steady progression, with CROOKED, Radical Left Politicians, Prosecutors, and Judges leading us down a path to destruction."
Nikki Haley, his Republican presidential primary rival, said Monday that Trump is “siding with a thug" in his embrace of Putin.
Tillis responded to Navalny's death by saying in a post, “History will not be kind to those in America who make apologies for Putin and praise Russian autocracy.”
Johnson, the House speaker, issued a statement calling Putin a “vicious dictator” and pledging that he “will be met with united opposition,” but he did not offer any way forward for passing the aid to Ukraine.
Within the Republican Party, skeptics of confronting Russia seem to be gaining ground.
“Nearly every Republican Senator under the age of 55 voted NO on this America Last bill,” Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt, elected in 2022, posted on the social media site X after the vote last week. “15 out of 17 elected since 2018 voted NO. Things are changing just not fast enough.”
Those who oppose additional Ukraine aid bristle at charges that they are doing Putin's handiwork. They contend they are taking a hard-headed look at whether it's worth spending money to help the country.
“If you oppose a blank check to another country, I guess that makes you a Russian,” Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville said on the Senate floor, after posting that conservative commentator Tucker Carlson’s recent controversial interview of Putin shows that “Russia wants peace” in contrast to “DC warmongers.”
Rep.Matt Gaetz, a leading opponent of Ukraine aid in the House, described the movement as “a generational shift in my party away from neoconservatism toward foreign policy realism.”
In interviews with voters waiting to see Trump speak Saturday night in Waterford Township, Michigan, none praised Putin. But none wanted to spend more money confronting him, trusting Trump to handle the Russian leader.
Even before Trump, Republican voters were signaling discontent with overseas conflicts, said Douglas Kriner, a political scientist at Cornell University. That's one reason Trump's 2016 promise to avoid “stupid wars” resonated.
“Some of it may be a bottom-up change in a key part of the Republican base,” Kriner said, “and part of it reflects Trump’s hold on that base and his ability to sway its opinions and policy preferences in dramatic ways.”
Trump has long praised Putin, calling his invasion of Ukraine “smart” and “savvy,” and recalling this month that he had told NATO members who didn’t spend enough on defense that he would “encourage” Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to them. He reiterated that threat days later.
Despite the reluctance within the GOP to continue supporting Ukraine, Russia remains deeply unpopular in the U.S. A July 2023 Gallup poll found that just 5% had a favorable view of Putin, including 7% of Republicans.
But Putin has positioned his country as a symbol of Christian conservatism and resistance to LGBTQ rights, while portraying himself as an embodiment of masculine strength. The combination has appealed to populist conservatives across the Western world. Putin's appeal in some sectors of the right is demonstrated by Carlson's recent tour of Russia, after which the conservative host posted videos admiring the Moscow subway and a supermarket that he says “would radicalize you against our leaders.”
“The goal of the Soviet Union was to be the beacon of left ideas,” said Olga Kamenchuk, a professor at Northwestern University. “Russia is now the beacon of conservative ideas.”
Kamenchuk said this is most visible not in Putin's U.S. poll numbers, but in fading Republican support for Ukraine. About half of Republicans said the U.S. is providing “too much” support to Ukraine when it comes to Russia’s invasion, according to a Pew Research poll in December. That’s up from 9% in a Pew poll taken in March 2022, just weeks after Russia invaded.
When Putin attacked Ukraine, there was bipartisan condemnation. Even a year ago, most Republicans in Congress pledged support. But around the same time, Trump was lamenting that U.S. leaders were “suckers” for sending aid.
By the fall, the party was divided. Republicans refused to include another round of Ukraine funding in the government spending bill, insisting that Democrats needed to include a border security measure to earn their support.
After Trump condemned the compromise border proposal, Republicans sank the bill, leaving Ukraine backers no option but to push the assistance as part of a foreign aid package with additional money for Israel and Taiwan.
Several experts on Russia note that the rhetoric the GOP uses against Ukraine aid can mirror Putin's own — that Ukraine is corrupt and will waste the money, that the U.S. can't afford to look beyond its borders and that Russia's victory is inevitable.
“He's trying to create the perception that he's never going to be beaten, so don't even try,” Henry Hale, a George Washington University political scientist, said of Putin.
Skeptics of Ukraine aid argue the war has already decimated the Russian military and that Putin won't be able to target other European countries.
“Russia has shown in the last two years that they do not have the ability to march through Western Europe,” said Russell Vought, Trump's former director of the Office of Management and Budget who is now president of the Center for Renewing America, which opposes additional Ukraine funding.
But several experts noted that Putin has alluded to plans to retake much of the former Soviet Union's territory, which could include NATO countries such as Lithuania and Estonia that the U.S is obligated under its treaty to defend militarily.
Sergey Radchenko, a professor at Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies, noted that Russia for decades has hoped the U.S would lose interest in protecting Europe: “This was Stalin's dream, that the U.S. would just retreat to the Western hemisphere."
