在密歇根州、亚利桑那州和佐治亚州，激烈的内部斗争正在撕裂各州的共和党。斗争主要围绕上次总统选举后出现的分歧展开。忠于特朗普的政党领导人的新骨干在许多情况下是基于对前总统唐纳德·特朗普在2020年实际上获胜的弥天大谎的辩护而上台的，他们发现自己与更多与建制派结盟的共和党人处于战争状态……而且彼此之间的战争越来越多。
特朗普在三个潜在摇摆州的这些分歧是特朗普控制共和党以及2020年大选后否认选举的兴起的许多方式之一，这些方式不仅定义了今年秋天的选举——特朗普的忠实者可能会在2020年审视他们影响选举结果的方式——也定义了共和党各州的政党组织，这些组织将在未来几年塑造他们各州的政治。
在密歇根州，共和党人认为他们已经受够了前州党主席克里斯蒂娜·卡拉莫拒绝让步无论是特朗普在2020年的失败还是她自己在2022年国务卿竞选中的失败，都是她作为选举活动人士的核心部分。去年年初，卡拉莫击败了特朗普支持的另一位竞选者，承诺帮助这个陷入困境的党组织在2022年后反弹民主党横扫全国和吸引更多草根捐助者。但她承诺的筹款从未兑现。到9月份该党在麦基诺岛举办两年一次的会议时，它不得不贷款11万美元来支付主旨发言人的费用。党内甚至出现了分歧导致了肢体冲突在聚会上。
据该州党员称，筹款困境、两年一度的会议出席率低迷以及2024年大选前的组织工作不足，增加了人们对卡拉莫领导层的不满。奥克兰县共和党主席万斯·帕特里克(Vance Patrick)说:“该州的筹款情况绝对令人失望。”奥克兰县共和党是该州最大的共和党之一，覆盖底特律西北郊区。“不幸的是，银行里根本没有钱，候选人不一定(仅仅)依靠政府赚钱，而是依靠政府进行拉票、敲门或其他活动。”
国家委员会投票淘汰了卡拉莫1月6日(今年)，一个无心讽刺的日期。或许恰当地说，她也没有承认那次投票是合法的。但州和国家党领导层(包括特朗普)已经认可她的继任者前大使皮特·霍克斯特拉(Pete Hoekstra)在这个关键的选举年争先恐后地弥补失去的时间，共和党人希望为特朗普提供该州，赢得一个关键的参议院席位，并夺回对州议会的控制权。“我们长期处于分裂状态。距离大选只剩9个月了，”帕特里克说。
亚利桑那州也发生了类似的剧变，但烟花稍少。亚利桑那州是2020年从特朗普转向拜登的另一个州2022年民主党的一波胜利。那里，该州共和党主席杰夫·德维特辞职1月24日，在共和党参议员候选人和前州长候选人卡里·莱克(Kari Lake)泄露了一段录音后，他显然向她提供了金钱和工作以退出参议员竞选。莱克和特朗普支持的候选人吉娜·斯沃博达，已经接管了共和党在该州的领导权。像卡拉莫一样，她作为一名活动家与一些组织合作而声名鹊起，这些组织声称2020年选举存在未经证实的欺诈行为。在亚利桑那州出现假选举人四年后，她的崛起似乎巩固了否认选举是该州政党驱动力的作用也参与了推翻2020年选举的努力。脱水时也是特朗普的支持者他被选中是因为承诺从2020年开始继续前进，击败了主张更换计票机以应对所谓欺诈的极右翼候选人。
不过，在佐治亚州，共和党领导人如州长布莱恩·坎普和国务卿布拉德·拉芬斯佩格挫败了质疑选举结果的努力惹恼了该州的一些普通共和党人，导致该州出现裂痕。该党与特朗普结盟的派系包括前国家党主席大卫·谢弗，他于2023年6月下台，此后被指控富尔顿县选举欺诈案特朗普也被指控。试图抹黑地区检察官范尼·威利斯和该案首席检察官内森·韦德的行为把它带回了聚光灯下和佐治亚州共和党人再次分裂。缔约国还在为参与该计划的一些假选民支付法律费用。新任党主席乔什·麦克孔，总体上与特朗普保持一致;在他当选的州大会上，特朗普发表了一篇抨击威利斯的演讲肯普缺席了.
这些党内分歧也以各种方式在全国上演。虽然特朗普似乎正在向党内提名挺进，但他已经领先10大挑战者。考虑到他在党内的持续影响力，他的大多数对手都避免直接批评他，但那些批评他的人一般维护那他的拒绝认输2020年对党和国家来说是分裂和有害的。这些论点显然没有得到共和党初选选民的支持，但该党对其前领导人(很可能是未来的领导人)的分歧程度将是共和党进入2024年选举季的一个决定性问题。
传统上，州政党在总统选举中并不发挥巨大的正式作用，但它们肯定会产生影响。虽然全国候选人和政党组织有自己的投票率和筹款机器，但各州政党从全国政党那里过滤资金，招募地方和州候选人，并在推动投票率方面发挥作用。更直接的是，在包括亚利桑那州、佐治亚州和密歇根州在内的一些州，缔约国还选择选举人对于选举人团投票，这一问题在2020年大选被否决后成为新的突出问题。马萨诸塞-达特茅斯学院的政治学教授道格拉斯·罗斯科说:“如果有一个关于谁作为选举人进入选票的问题……(州政党领导层)就会发挥作用，因为很多时候州政党的规则都规定了选举人是如何选出的。”
2020年，谢弗不是唯一与特朗普有关联的人共和党州高级官员显然参与了一个假选举人计划。在这种情况下假选举人挑战他们所在州的选举结果，这是富尔顿县针对特朗普的案件的核心指控，否认选举的政党官员可能会促成1月6日暴动的重演，或在势均力敌的情况下出现其他复杂情况。
随着否认选举的人帮助塑造州政党，如果一个州的选举结果接近并受到法院挑战，另一场战斗可能会开启。这些组织传统上在法院挑战中发挥作用。罗斯科说:“(他们)安排律师，制定质疑选举结果或要求重新计票或诉讼等法律策略。”“所以他们可以是一个起诉的实体。“这在亚利桑那州、佐治亚州和密歇根州等州可能最重要，因为这些州的总统竞选可能会势均力敌，并可能引发法律挑战。
更广泛地说，各州政党在选举候选人时发挥着重要作用。A缺少年轻的共和党领导人对共和党来说，这似乎是一个新的挑战，因为对特朗普和弥天大谎的支持仍然是对那些竞选公职的人的试金石——这些与特朗普结盟的年轻共和党人往往比他们更有权势的同龄人经验更少，更专注于哗众取宠而不是制定政策。密歇根州立大学政治学教授马特·格罗斯曼(Matt Grossmann)指出，密歇根州共和党人在2022年的选举中失败了，卡拉莫等缺乏经验的反建制候选人的提名导致了民主党的胜利。卡拉莫的主要资格是支持弥天大谎。“如果他们真的提名没有经验的人参加上次选举，”格罗斯曼说，“我认为，基本上，这对共和党来说可能会更糟。”
Swing state Republican parties are in chaos. That could matter in November.
In Michigan, Arizona and Georgia, intense internal battles are tearing through the state Republican parties. The fights largely pivot around divisions that opened up in the wake of the last presidential election. A new cadre of Trump-loyalist party leaders, in many cases propelled into power based on their defense of the Big Lie that former President Donald Trump actually won in 2020, have found themselves at war with more establishment-aligned Republicans … and, increasingly, with each other.
These rifts in three potential swing states are one of the many ways that Trump's hold on the GOP and the rise of election denial in the aftermath of the 2020 election are defining not only the election this fall — when Trump loyalists could be looking at their 2020 playbook for ways to influence the outcome — but also the Republican state party organizations that will shape their states' politics for years to come.
In Michigan, Republicans decided they'd had enough of former state party chair Kristina Karamo, whoserefusal to concedeeither Trump's 2020 loss or her own loss in the 2022 secretary of state contest was a core part of her profile as an election activist. Karamo beat out a Trump-endorsed fellow election denier for the role early last year, promising to help the struggling party organization rebound after the 2022Democratic sweep of the stateandattract more grassroots donors. But the fundraising she promised never materialized. By the time the party hosted its biennial conference on Mackinac Island in September, it had to take out a $110,000 loan to pay for the keynote speaker. Disagreements in the party evenled to physical fightsat party meetings.
Fundraising woes, lackluster attendance at the biennial conference and insufficient organizing ahead of the 2024 election increased dissatisfaction with Karamo's leadership, according to state party members. "The fundraising has been just absolutely dismal with the state party," said Vance Patrick, chair of the Oakland County Republican Party, one of the largest in the state, covering the suburbs northwest of Detroit. "Unfortunately, there's just no money in the bank, and the candidates rely on the state party not necessarily [just] for money, but for the canvassing, or the door knocking, or the other things."
The state committeevoted Karamo outon Jan. 6 (this year), an unintentionally ironic date. Perhaps fittingly, she hasn't recognized that vote as legitimate either. But state and national party leadership (including Trump) haverecognized her successor, former Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, and they're scrambling to make up lost time in this critical election year when Republicans hope to deliver the state for Trump, win a crucial Senate seat and regain control of the state House. "We have been a divided state for way too long. There's only nine months left before the election," Patrick said.
With slightly fewer fireworks, a similar upheaval played out in Arizona — another state that swung from Trump to Biden in 2020 and saw awave of Democratic victories in 2022. There,the state GOP chair, Jeff DeWit, resignedon Jan. 24 after Republican Senate candidate and former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, a MAGA favorite, leaked an audio recording of him apparently offering her money and a job to step out of the Senate race. A candidate backed by Lake and Trump, Gina Swoboda,has since taken over Republican leadership in the state. Like Karamo, she rose to prominence as an activist working with organizations that have made unsupported claims of election fraud in 2020. Her elevation seems to cement the role of election denial as a driving force in the state party, four years after fake electors in Arizonawere also involved in the effort to overturn the 2020 election. While DeWitwas also a Trump supporter, he had been selected on a promise to move on from 2020, beating out further-right candidates who'd advocated for replacing vote-counting machines in response to alleged fraud.
In Georgia, though, Republican party leaders like Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffenspergerthwarted efforts to cast doubt on the election results, irking some rank-and-file Republicans in the state and leading to rifts there. The Trump-aligned wing of the party included former state party chair David Shafer, who stepped down in June 2023 and has since been chargedin the Fulton County election fraud schemein which Trump is also charged. Attempts to discredit District Attorney Fani Willis and Nathan Wade, the lead prosecutor in that case, havebrought it back into the spotlightandonce again divided Georgia Republicans. The state party is also footing the legal bills for some of the fake electors involved in the scheme. The new party chairman, Josh McKoon,has generally aligned himself with Trump;the state convention in which he was elected featured a speech from Trump lambasting Willis, andKemp was absent.
These intraparty divisions are also playing out, in various ways, across the country. While Trump appears to be coasting to his party's nomination, he drew10 major challengers. With an eye to his continued influence in the party, most of his opponents avoided criticizing him directly, but those who didgenerally maintainedthathis refusalto concedein 2020was divisive and damaging for the party and the country. Those arguments clearly didn't gain steam with GOP primary voters, but the extent to which the party remains divided over its former — and likely future — leader will be a defining question for Republicans heading into the 2024 election season.
State parties traditionally don't play a huge formal role in presidential elections, but they can certainly have an impact. While national candidates and party organizations have their own turnout and fundraising machines, state parties filter money from the national parties, recruit local and state candidates, and play a role in driving turnout. Even more directly, in some states, including Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, state parties alsochoose electorsfor the Electoral College vote, an issue that has become newly salient in the wake of 2020 election denial. "If there's a question about who gets on the ballot as electors … [state party leadership] comes into play, because a lot of times the state party rules specify how electors are chosen," said Douglas Roscoe, a political science professor at UMass-Dartmouth.
In 2020, Shafer wasn't the only Trump-affiliatedhigh-ranking GOP state officialapparently involved in a fake elector scheme. And in a scenario wherefake electorschallenge the results in their states, which is the central allegation in the Fulton County case against Trump, election-denying party officials could contribute to arepeat of the Jan. 6 insurrection, or other complications in the case of a close election.
With election deniers helping to shape state parties, another battle could open up if election results in a state are close and subject to court challenges, in which these organizations traditionally play a role. "[They] line up the attorneys, have a legal strategy for questioning the results or calling for recounts or litigation and so forth," Roscoe said. "So they can be an entity that sues." That may matter most in states like Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, where the presidential race could be close and legal challenges could originate.
More broadly, state parties play a major role in selecting candidates for down-ballot races. Adearth of young Republican leadersseems to be an emerging challenge for the GOP, as support for Trump and the Big Lie remain a litmus test for those who would run for office — these younger, Trump-aligned Republicans are often less experienced than their more establishment peers, more focused on grandstanding than policymaking. Matt Grossmann, a professor of political science at Michigan State University, pointed to Michigan Republicans' electoral failures in 2022, where the nomination of inexperienced anti-establishment candidates like Karamo, whose major qualifications were that they were championing the Big Lie, resulted in Democratic victories. "If they really are nominating inexperienced people who are caught up with refighting the last elections," Grossmann said, "I think, basically, it could get a lot worse for the Republican Party."
