初步的超级星期二投票后调查结果显示出乔·拜登(Joe Biden)和唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)在独立选民中的弱点，同时也提出了一个问题:如果特朗普在11月的共和党总统候选人提名中击败妮基·黑利，她的支持者会在多大程度上支持她。
总之，加州、北卡罗来纳州和弗吉尼亚州的调查结果标志着拜登总统和前总统特朗普在预计11月的对决中面临的挑战。这三个州将于周二进行出口民调。
值得注意的是，在北卡罗来纳州共和党总统初选中，78%的哈雷选民、69%的加州选民和68%的弗吉尼亚州选民都不愿意表示他们会支持该党的提名人，这反映了哈雷最近在这个问题上的态度。分别只有21%、26%和27%的受访者做出承诺。
此外，与以前的初选一样，绝大多数哈雷选民表示，如果特朗普被判有罪，他将不适合担任公职，他们表示对他作为被提名人感到不满，并拒绝他关于拜登在2020年没有合法获胜的说法，这是特朗普竞选的宗旨。(特朗普面临91项指控，并否认所有不当行为。)
与特朗普支持者保持距离的其他迹象是，大多数哈雷选民反对联邦堕胎禁令，支持大多数未经授权的移民申请合法身份的机会。在仅在加利福尼亚州询问的问题中，哈雷选民绝大多数对2022年最高法院取消堕胎宪法权利的裁决感到不满，54%的人不赞成特朗普作为总统的表现。
对拜登的潜在提振是，北卡罗来纳州和弗吉尼亚州均有48%的哈雷选民认可他作为总统的工作;在加州，这一比例降至30%。综合这三个州的情况来看，40%的海利选民认可拜登的工作表现，58%的人不认可。
那么，问题是一些海利选民是否会在11月转向拜登，以及如果特朗普如预期的那样赢得党内提名，有多少人会支持特朗普。
总体而言，在这三场初选中，民主党仅占共和党初选选民的4%。他们主要是海利选民和拜登的支持者:在支持拜登的海利选民中，28%是民主党人，47%是无党派人士，26%是共和党人。(相比之下，在不支持拜登的黑人选民中，只有2%是民主党人，34%是无党派人士，64%是共和党人。)
此外，在支持拜登的哈雷选民中，84%是温和派或自由派，16%是保守派。在不赞成拜登的人中，39%是温和派或自由派，61%是保守派。
支持拜登的黑人选民对国家和经济都更加乐观。他们对美国的形势持53%对44%的正负面看法，对美国经济持72%对28%的正负面看法。在不赞成拜登的哈雷选民中，对事情发展方式的正负面比例为14-86%，对经济的正负面比例为26-73%。
弗吉尼亚州的投票已经结束，对出口民调的分析显示，拜登赢得了民主党初选，特朗普赢得了弗吉尼亚州共和党总统初选。
美国广播公司新闻有出口民调数据的其他南部州相比，福音派白人基督徒的投票率更低(弗吉尼亚州37%;北卡罗来纳州为52%，南卡罗来纳州上周为61%)，但其中四分之三的人支持特朗普，保持了他们今年最坚定的支持群体之一的地位。
近三分之二是保守派，特朗普再次在这一群体中游刃有余。黑利获得了无党派人士(57%的支持率)和11%的弗吉尼亚州共和党初选选民的支持，他们认为自己是民主党人(90%支持黑利)。她还赢得了大学毕业生的支持，支持率为56%。但特朗普轻松赢得了非毕业生，加上他对核心共和党人的控制，在弗吉尼亚州领先。
北卡罗来纳州的投票后民意调查
特朗普预计将在北卡罗来纳州的初选中获胜，这非常适合他-77%的选民认为自己是保守派，其中一半“非常”保守，52%是白人福音派基督徒。
投票后初步民调结果显示，超过一半的人(56%)没有大学学历——这两类人都是特朗普的有力支持者。他还受益于广泛的反移民情绪，41%的人认为这是他们的首要问题(相比之下，33%的人认为是经济问题)，62%的人支持驱逐大多数无证移民。63%的人表示，即使特朗普被判有罪，他也适合担任公职——但即使在那里，三分之一的共和党初选选民(32%)表示他不会。
加州参议院初选
11月大选的另一个窗口是加州为美国参议院举行的公开初选，这是一场所谓的丛林初选，民主党和共和党都参加竞选，周二不分党派的两名最佳候选人将进入11月大选。
对拜登有利的是，在参加参议院初选投票的加州民主党人中，初步民调结果显示83%的人认可他处理总统工作的方式。但在无党派人士中，只有35%的人认可拜登的工作表现，65%的人不认可。无党派人士在全国大选中通常是摇摆选民。(在共和党人中，不支持拜登的比例几乎达到了92%。)
特朗普与拜登的基础相当-在参议院公开初选中，83%的共和党人认可特朗普担任总统时处理工作的方式。
然而，在无党派人士中，赞成的人较少，占43%，而不赞成的人占56%。(在民主党人中，97%的人不赞成。)
在已故参议员黛安娜·范斯坦留下的空缺席位的公开初选中，民主党在这些初步结果中占选民的43%;37%是无党派人士，20%是共和党人。
这场竞选将三名著名的民主党议员李金浔、凯蒂·波特和亚当·希夫与共和党议员史蒂夫·陈嘉炜对立起来，问题是民主党是否以一种打开陈嘉炜大门的方式在两位顶尖候选人之间进行决选。
另一方面，在加州参议院初选中投票的60%的无党派人士表示，如果特朗普被判有罪，他们不会认为他适合担任总统。在特朗普自己的党内，28%的共和党人也这么说。
除了支持率之外，拜登面临的挑战还反映在加州参议院初选选民的经济态度上。总体而言，55%的人认为经济状况不太好或不好，其中包括66%的独立人士。总体而言，只有14%的人(包括11%的独立人士)表示他们的家庭在经济上取得了进步。
对于现任总统来说，这两个结果都不是什么好兆头。
美国总统乔·拜登、前总统唐纳德·特朗普。
盖蒂图片社/美联社
除了刑事曝光外，特朗普面临的一个风险是，在参议院公开初选中，71%的加州人表示他们对美国最高法院取消堕胎宪法权利的决定感到不满或愤怒，其中包括62%的无党派人士，甚至34%的共和党人。
此外，不到一半的无党派人士(41%)认为大多数非法入境的移民应该被驱逐出境，大多数无党派人士(66%)反对特朗普关于拜登没有合法赢得2020年大选的错误说法。
考虑到无党派人士的摇摆选民身份，关注他们是合理的。特朗普在2016年击败希拉里·克林顿的六个摇摆州赢得了独立选民:亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、密歇根州、北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州。
随后，拜登在2020年赢得了所有六个州的独立选民，使北卡罗来纳州以外的所有州都重新回到民主党阵营。
从全国范围来看，自1976年以来，除了三次选举(根据出口民调，分别在2012年、2004年和1976年)外，总统获胜者在无党派人士中普遍获胜。
在其他结果中值得注意的是
在共和党总统初选中，白人福音派基督徒(今年特朗普的一个强大群体)在北卡罗来纳州占选民的52%，在弗吉尼亚州和加利福尼亚州分别降至36%和22%。非常保守的选民在北卡罗来纳州占39%，在弗吉尼亚州占28%，在加利福尼亚州占26%，对特朗普的支持也特别强烈。
与2016年的对比显示，非常保守的白人福音派选民是特朗普一直获得最多支持的群体。
今年在新罕布什尔州，他的总体支持率比2016年上升了20个百分点，但在非常保守的人中上升了53个百分点，在白人福音派中上升了42个百分点。在南卡罗来纳州，总体上升了28个百分点，但在非常保守的人中上升了55个百分点，在白人福音派中上升了37个百分点。(加州没有2016年的数据。)
迄今为止，已经在六个州的共和党竞选中进行了出口民调:爱荷华州、新罕布什尔州、南卡罗来纳州，现在是加利福尼亚州、北卡罗来纳州和弗吉尼亚州。
总体结果(与投票率成比例)显示了支持特朗普的群体的投票率，也标志着与大选选民的人口差异，共和党选民中的保守派、白人和白人福音派要多得多。
总体而言，在2024年共和党初选中，大多数选民都相信特朗普的谎言，即拜登不是合法当选的，他们倾向于驱逐大多数未经授权的移民，并表示即使被判有罪，他也适合担任公职。
较少但仍有41%的人支持联邦堕胎禁令。81%的人对经济持负面评价，而85%的人对国家的发展方式感到不满甚至愤怒。
不过，更少的人认为自己是特朗普MAGA运动的一部分。
这些综合结果掩盖了各州之间的一些差异例如，爱荷华州61%的人赞成联邦禁止堕胎，而新罕布什尔州67%的人反对。这六个州的总体观点可能并不反映其他地方共和党选民的观点。
总体而言，在这三场初选中，民主党仅占共和党初选选民的4%。他们主要是海利选民和拜登的支持者:在支持拜登的海利选民中，28%是民主党人，47%是无党派人士，26%是共和党人。(相比之下，在不支持拜登的黑人选民中，只有2%是民主党人，34%是无党派人士，64%是共和党人。)
此外，在支持拜登的黑人选民中，84%是温和派或自由派，16%是保守派。在不赞成拜登的人中，39%是温和派或自由派，61%是保守派。
支持拜登的黑人选民对国家和经济都更加乐观。他们对美国经济发展的看法为53-44%(正负值)，对美国经济的看法为72-28%(正负值)。
在不赞成拜登的哈雷选民中，对事情发展方式的支持率为14-86%(正负值)，对经济的支持率为26-73%(正负值)。
在今年共和党提名竞选中进行出口民调的所有六个州中，17%的哈雷选民认为特朗普如果被判有罪将会健康，79%的人认为不健康。
自然，明年秋天的大选选民将与超级星期二选民的构成不同，无论是在加州(自1988年以来从未投票给共和党总统候选人)还是在其他地方。
尽管如此，新的出口民调结果可能总体上表明两位领先候选人面临的困难。
请注意，这些是初步的投票后调查结果。随着结果被加权到实际投票总数，调查结果可能会发生变化。实际投票总数在美国东部时间凌晨1点30分左右才会在加州出现。(此外，鉴于该州提前投票的优势，加州的调查虽然在这里被称为出口民调，但在选举日之前通过电话和电子邮件进行。)
Trump, Biden show signs of weakness with independents in 3 big states: Preliminary exit polls
PreliminarySuper Tuesday exit poll resultsshow weaknesses for Joe Biden and Donald Trump alike among independent voters while also raising questions about the extent to which supporters of Nikki Haley would turn out for Trump in November if he beats her for the Republican presidential nomination.
In sum, the findings in California, North Carolina and Virginia -- the three states with exit polls on Tuesday -- mark challenges facing both President Biden and former President Trump in an expected November face-off.
Notably, 78% of Haley voters in the North Carolina Republican presidential primary, 69% in California and 68% in Virginia are unwilling to say they'll support the party's nominee whoever it is, mirroring Haley's recent hedge on the issue. Just 21, 26 and 27%, respectively, take the pledge.
Moreover, as in previous primaries, large majorities of Haley voters say Trump would be unfit for office if convicted of a crime, say they'd be dissatisfied with him as the nominee and reject his claim that Biden didn't legitimately win in 2020, a tenet of Trump's campaign. (Trump faces 91 charges and denies all wrongdoing.)
In other signs of distance from Trump supporters, most Haley voters oppose a federal abortion ban and support a chance for most unauthorized immigrants to apply for legal status. In questions asked only in California, Haley voters overwhelmingly are dissatisfied with the 2022 Supreme Court ruling eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion and 54% disapprove of Trump's performance as president.
In a potential boost to Biden, 48% of Haley voters in North Carolina and Virginia alike approve of his work as president; this drops to 30% in California. Combined across the three states, 40% of Haley voters approve of Biden's job performance, 58% disapprove.
The question, then, is both whether some Haley voters may shift to Biden in November as well as how many will turn out for Trump if, as expected, he wins his party's nomination.
Overall, Democrats account for just 4% of GOP primary voters in these three primaries. They concentrate as Haley voters and Biden approvers: Among Haley voters who approve of Biden, 28% are Democrats, 47% are independents and 26% are Republicans. (Among Haley voters who disapprove of Biden, by contrast, just 2% are Democrats, 34% independents, 64% Republicans.)
Additionally, among Haley voters who approve of Biden, 84% are moderates or liberals and 16% are conservatives. Among those who disapprove of Biden, 39% are moderates or liberals and 61% are conservative.
Haley voters who approve of Biden are more optimistic about the country and the economy alike. They have a 53-44% positive-negative view of the way things are going in the country and a 72-28% positive-negative view of the nation's economy. Among Haley voters who disapprove of Biden, it's 14-86% positive-negative on the way things are going and 26-73% positive-negative on the economy.
Virginia's exit polling
The polls have closed in Virginia and an analysis of the exit polls show that Biden won the Democratic primary and Trump won the Virginia Republican presidential primary.
Fewer evangelical white Christians turned out than in other southern states for which ABC News has exit poll data (37% in Virginia; 52% in North Carolina and 61% last week in South Carolina), but three-quarters of them backed Trump, holding their position as one of his strongest support groups this year.
Nearly two-thirds were conservatives, and Trump again cruised in this group. Haley came back with independents (57% support) and the 11% of Virginia GOP primary voters who identified themselves as Democrats (90% for Haley). She also won college graduates, with 56%. But Trump easily won non-graduates, along with his hold on core Republicans, taking the lead in Virginia.
North Carolina's exit polls
Trump is the projected winner in the North Carolina primary, which was well suited for him -- with 77% of voters identifying themselves as conservatives, half of them "very" conservative and 52 percent as white evangelical Christians.
More than half, 56% in preliminary exit poll results, don't have a college degree -- with each of these a strong group for Trump. He also benefited from broad anti-immigrant sentiment, with 41% calling it their top issue (compared to 33% who cited the economy) and 62% favoring deportation of most undocumented immigrants. Sixty-three percent said Trump would be fit for office even if convicted of a crime -- but even there, a third of Republican primary voters, 32%, said he would not.
California Senate primary
Another window on the November election is available via California's open primary for the U.S. Senate, a so-called jungle primary in which both Democrats and Republicans run and the two top finishers on Tuesday, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.
Helpfully for Biden, among California Democrats who voted in the Senate primary, 83% in the preliminary poll results approve of how he is handling his job as president. But among independents -- often swing voters in national elections -- just 35% approve of Biden's job performance while 65% disapprove. (Among Republicans, disapproval of Biden reaches a near-unanimous 92.)
Trump matches Biden in his base -- 83 percent of Republicans in the Senate open primary approve of how Trump handled the job when he was president.
Among independents, however, fewer approve, 43%, while 56% disapprove. (Among Democrats, 97 percent disapprove.)
In the open primary for the seat left vacant by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Democrats account for 43% of voters in these preliminary results; 37% are independents and 20% are Republicans.
The race pits three prominent Democratic lawmakers -- Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff -- against a Republican, Steve Garvey, with a question whether the Democrats split the vote in a way that opens the door to Garvey in a runoff between the top two finishers.
On another front, 60% of independents voting in the California Senate primary say they would not see Trump as fit to be president if he were convicted of a crime. And in Trump's own party, 28% of Republicans say the same.
Beyond his approval rating, challenges for Biden are reflected in economic attitudes among California Senate primary voters. Fifty-five percent overall say the economy is in not so good or poor shape -- including 66% of independents. And just 14% overall, including 11% of independents, say their family is getting ahead financially.
Neither result bodes particularly well for an incumbent president.
A risk for Trump, beyond his criminal exposure, is that 71% of Californians in the Senate open primary say they are dissatisfied or angry about the U.S. Supreme Court decision eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion -- including 62% of independents and even 34% of Republicans.
Further, fewer than half of independents, 41%, think most immigrants who are in the country illegally should be deported and most independents, 66%, reject Trump's false claim that Biden didn't legitimately win the 2020 election.
A focus on independents is justified given their swing voter status. Trump won independents in six swing states where he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden then won independents in all six of those states in 2020, moving all but North Carolina back into the Democratic column.
Nationally, presidential winners have prevailed among independents in all but three elections since 1976 (in 2012, 2004 and 1976, per exit polls).
Notable among other results
In the Republican presidential primaries, white evangelical Christians, a strong group for Trump this year, account for 52% of voters in North Carolina, dropping to 36% in Virginia and 22% in California. Very conservative voters, also especially strong for Trump, make up 39% in North Carolina, 28% in Virginia and 26% in California.
Comparisons to 2016 show that very conservative and white evangelical voters are the groups in which Trump consistently has gained the most ground.
In New Hampshire this year, he was up 20 points overall vs. 2016, but 53 points among very conservatives and 42 points among white evangelicals. In South Carolina, up 28 points overall but 55 points among very conservative and 37 points among white evangelicals. (2016 numbers aren't available for California.)
Exit polls have been conducted in Republican contests in six states to date: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and now California, North Carolina and Virginia.
Aggregate results (proportional to turnout) show the extent to which pro-Trump groups have turned out and also mark demographic differences with general election voters, with far more conservatives, white people and white evangelicals in the GOP electorate.
Attitudinally, in aggregate, majorities of voters in these 2024 Republican primaries buy into Trump's falsehood that Biden was not legitimately elected, favor deporting most unauthorized immigrants and say he would be fit for office even if convicted of a crime.
Fewer but still 41% favor a federal ban on abortion. And a broad 81% rate the economy negatively while 85% are dissatisfied or even angry at the way things are going in the country.
Many fewer, though, identify themselves as part of Trump's MAGA movement.
These aggregate results conceal some differences among states -- 61% in Iowa favored a federal ban on abortion, for example, while 67% in New Hampshire opposed this. And aggregate views in these six states may not reflect those among Republican voters elsewhere.
Overall, Democrats account for just 4% of GOP primary voters in these three primaries. They concentrate as Haley voters and Biden approvers: Among Haley voters who approve of Biden, 28% are Democrats, 47% are independents and 26% are Republicans. (Among Haley voters who disapprove of Biden, by contrast, just 2% are Democrats, 34% independents, 64% Republicans.)
Additionally, among Haley voters who approve of Biden, 84% are moderates or liberals, 16% conservatives. Among those who disapprove of Biden, 39% are moderates or liberals while 61% are conservatives.
Haley voters who approve of Biden are more optimistic about the country and the economy alike. They have a 53-44% (positive-negative) view of the way things are going in the country and a 72-28% (positive-negative) view of the nation's economy.
Among Haley voters who disapprove of Biden, it's 14-86% (positive-negative) on the way things are going and 26-73% (positive-negative) on the economy.
Across all six states for which there are GOP exit polls in the nominating races this year, 17% of Haley voters say Trump would be fit if convicted of a crime, 79% say not fit.
Naturally, the general election electorate next fall will be different than the makeup of Super Tuesday voters, both in California (which hasn't voted for a Republican candidate for president since 1988) and elsewhere.
The new exit poll results nonetheless may be generally indicative of the difficulties awaiting both leading candidates.
Note that these are preliminary exit poll results. Findings may shift as results are weighted to actual vote totals, which won't happen in California until approximately 1:30 a.m. EST. (Additionally, the California survey, while referred to here as an exit poll, was conducted by phone and email in advance of Election Day, given the preponderance of early voting in the state.)
