乔·拜登总统将在国会和美国人民严重分裂的国际冲突背景下发表他的第三次国情咨文。
随着拜登在2023年进入竞选模式，他几乎没有花时间在讲坛上讨论他的外交政策-而是专注于他的国内议程。
但现在，随着他的连任悬而未决，拜登正在努力应对乌克兰对俄罗斯入侵的阻碍和众议院共和党人拒绝为基辅的战斗提供资金，以及他在以色列与哈马斯在加沙的战争中争取暂时停火的努力。这场冲突引发了与一个重要盟友的紧张关系，并使民主党关键选民集团的信念相互对立。
所有这些都卷入了国内围绕边境安全和移民问题的政治战争。
前官员和分析师在周四的演讲中接受了美国广播公司新闻的采访，谈到拜登可能会如何努力应对当前的挑战。
“首席说服官”
谈到乌克兰，专家们表示，拜登必须让美国人相信，支持一个5000英里外的东欧国家不仅是一项有价值的事业，而且对他们的日常生活和美国国家安全有直接影响。
“总统必须是解释者、说服者的领袖，”保卫民主俄罗斯基金会项目副主任约翰·哈迪说。
哈迪认为，对怀疑论者来说，强调俄罗斯战胜乌克兰对美国国家安全的影响比推进民主的抽象目标更有说服力。
如果拜登能够为乌克兰说话——民调显示大多数美国人仍支持基辅——他可以将美国对这场战争日益减少的物质支持归咎于一个明显的罪魁祸首:坐在他面前的共和党议员。
“尽管现在的分歧和不确定性比过去多得多，但美国大部分地区仍支持他，”布鲁金斯学会外交政策研究主任、国防部国防政策委员会成员迈克尔·奥汉隆(Michael O‘Han lon)说。
“如果他能在这种僵局中与无所事事的国会或至少是国会领导层对抗，那么从战略和政治角度来看，这实际上可能会成为一次成功的演讲，”奥汉伦补充说。
富有同情心的呼吁
美国国情咨文将在以色列-哈马斯战争五周年之际发表，美国人对这场冲突的严重两极化观点将得到充分展示。
演讲前，一场支持加沙陷入交火中的巴勒斯坦平民的示威活动将在白宫前展开，抗议者认为拜登是他们苦难的同谋，尽管他正在游说停火，并敦促更多人道主义援助进入加沙。
与此同时，自10月7日袭击以色列以来一直被哈马斯关押的美国人的家人将作为共和党参议员的客人坐在观众席上发表讲话。共和党参议员表示，政府应该不惜一切代价将六名人质带回家。
美国战略与国际研究中心中东项目主任、前国务院高级官员乔恩·奥尔特曼(Jon B. Alterman)表示，拜登最好的选择是迎合紧张的情绪，表现出对双方的同情。
“双方都有平民死亡。双方都有平民继续遭受痛苦，”奥尔特曼说，他也在拜登担任该小组成员时担任参议院外交关系委员会的工作人员。
他补充说:“此举将表明他对平民苦难的同情，坦率地说，这正处于总统的舒适区。”
但奥尔特曼和奥汉隆认为，拜登必须将这种同理心与行动结合起来。
“我认为拜登有能力找到承认双方悲伤和损失的话语。但他也必须找到一种方式成为以色列的朋友，而不是祝福以色列正在做的一切。
奥尔特曼预测说:“我认为他会强调向加沙提供更多人道主义援助的必要性。”“这是否会平息抗议人群——我对此持怀疑态度。“
全球战略，全国观众
尽管总统必须面对有争议的话题，但专家们表示，国情咨文为拜登提供了一个向广大不同受众解释其外交政策的机会——这是一个难得的潜在重大机会。
奥汉隆说:“让白宫新闻秘书发表讲话是一回事。“直接接触美国人是另一回事，并解释为什么在这个历史时刻，这是一系列崇高而光荣的事情。”
奥尔特曼说，这次讲话也是拜登的一次机会，他可以借此证明他正在增强国家的影响力，而且他将在第二个任期内继续这样做。
奥尔特曼说:“我认为这将是一个巨大的重点，表明他的领导能力与人们每天所想的事情有关。”
哈迪预测，这一信息是否能得到选民的认可将取决于总统能否让他们相信美国今天的外交政策将为国家的未来铺平道路。
他说:“我希望他能给人一种紧迫感——展望未来几十年，并提醒美国人民投资安全和国防不是一种奢侈。”“因为事情可能会变化得非常非常快。”
Global conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza loom over Biden's State of the Union: ANALYSIS
President Joe Biden will deliver his third State of the Union against a backdrop of international conflicts that have sharply divided Congress and the American people,making the stakes
As he shifted into campaign mode in 2023, Biden spent little time discussing his foreign policy from the bully pulpit -- focusing instead on his domestic agenda.
But now, with his reelection in the balance, Biden is grappling with Ukraine's stymied battle against Russia's invasion and the refusal by House Republicans to fund Kyiv's fight, as well as his struggle to win a temporary cease-fire in Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza -- a conflict that has triggered tensions with a critical ally and pitted the convictions of key Democratic voter blocs against each other.
And all of this is caught up in political wars at home over border security and immigration.
Former officials and analysts spoke to ABC News about how Biden may try to meet the challenges of the moment in his speech on Thursday.
'Persuader in chief'
When it comes to Ukraine, experts say Biden must convince Americans that supporting a country 5,000 miles away in Eastern Europe is not only a worthy cause -- but one that has a direct impact on their daily lives and U.S. national security.
"The president does have to be the explainer, the persuader in chief," John Hardie, deputy director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Russia Program, said.
Hardie argues that stressing the implications a Russian victory over Ukraine would have for U.S. national security will prove more persuasive to skeptics than the abstract aim of advancing democracy.
If Biden can make the case for Ukraine -- and polling indicates most Americans are still behind Kyiv -- he can pin the dwindling U.S. material support for the war on a clear culprit: Republican lawmakers sitting in front of him.
"Even though there's a lot more division and uncertainty than there used to be, most of the country is still with him," said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution and a member of the Defense Policy Board at the Department of Defense.
"If he can pit himself against a sort of do-nothing Congress, or at least congressional leadership, for this impasse, then it might actually wind up being a successful speech on strategic grounds and also on political grounds," O'Hanlon added.
Compassionate appeal
The State of the Union will fall on the five-month anniversary of the Israeli-Hamas war, and Americans' deeply polarized views over the conflict are poised to be on full display.
A demonstration in support of Palestinian civilians in Gaza caught in the crossfire is set to unfold in front of the White House ahead of the speech, drawing protesters who argue that Biden is complicit in their suffering, even as he lobbies for a pause in the fighting and presses for much more humanitarian aid to get into Gaza.
Meanwhile, family members of Americans who have been held by Hamas since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel will sit in the audience for the address as guests of Republican senators who say the administration should stop at nothing to bring the six hostages home.
Jon B. Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former high-ranking State Department official, says Biden's best bet is to lean into the charged emotions, demonstrating empathy for both sides.
"There are civilians on both sides who have died. There are civilians on both sides who continue to suffer," said Alterman, who also served as a staffer on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when Biden was on the panel.
"The push will be to demonstrate his compassion for civilian suffering, which, frankly, is in the in the president's comfort zone," he added.
But Alterman and O'Hanlon argue Biden will have to pair that empathy with action.
"I think Biden is capable of finding words that that acknowledge the sorrow and loss on both sides. But he's also got to find a way to be Israel's friend without blessing everything that Israel is doing," O'Hanlon said.
"I assume he's going to be forceful on the need for more humanitarian assistance to Gaza," Alterman forecasted. "Whether that will assuage the people protesting -- I'm much more skeptical."
A global strategy, a national audience
Even though the president must confront contentious topics, experts say the State of the Union affords Biden a chance explain his foreign policy to a wide and varied audience -- a rare and potentially significant opportunity.
"It's one thing to have a White House press secretary make a speech," O'Hanlon said. "It's something else to reach directly to Americans and to explain why, at this moment in history, this is a noble and honorable set of things to do."
Alterman says the address is also a chance for Biden to argue that he's bolstering the country's influence for the better -- and that he will continue to do so in a second term.
"I think here's going to be a huge emphasis demonstrating that his leadership is relevant to the things people think about every day," Alterman said.
Hardie predicts that whether that message lands with voters will depend on whether the president can convince them that U.S. foreign policy today will pave the nation's future.
"I'd hope he would give a sense of urgency -- looking out over the next couple of decades and reminding the American people that investing in security and defense isn't a luxury," he said. "Because things can change very, very quickly."
