众议院议员似乎非常讨厌自己的工作，有些人甚至无法熬到年底。周五，已经选择不寻求连任的众议员迈克·加拉格尔宣布他将4月从众议院辞职。一周前，现任前众议员肯·巴克做了同样的事情——而且没有拐弯抹角地解释他为什么要离开。“这是我在国会九年零三个月以来最糟糕的一年，在与前议员交谈后，这是40-50年来在国会最糟糕的一年，”他告诉CNN.
许多其他代表似乎同意这一观点。迄今为止，在第118届国会中，已有48名众议院议员离开或宣布计划自愿离开国会。*这是众议院的11%，会议甚至还没有结束;今年年底前可能还会有少数人离开。
尽管有这么多令人沮丧的标题大约多久以前国会功能失调将会员推向出口，这个数字不是记录。但这是最近国会议员决定退出的趋势的一部分。如下图所示，自第109届国会(2005-2006年)以来，自愿离开众议院的众议员人数一直呈上升趋势。
如果再有三名众议员宣布离职计划——考虑到今年还剩多少时间，这似乎是可能的——本届国会将是过去20年中离职人数第三多的一届。前两次都是最近的例子:第115届(2017-18年)和第117届(2021-22年)国会。
此外，每届大会都有一些不同寻常之处。第115届国会大量辞职由于四名众议员因#MeToo相关丑闻辞职，四名众议员辞职加入前总统唐纳德·特朗普的内阁。第117届国会恰逢基于2020年人口普查的重新划分周期——每个人的选区重新划分通常会导致比平时更多的人退休。
虽然重划选区也促使本届国会出现了一些背离(例如，北卡罗来纳州11月完成了完全重新绘制的地图(让三名民主党议员无处可逃)，目前的国会没有一个同等的特殊情况可以解释为什么离职率如此之高——除了两次旷日持久的议长选举,以极微弱的多数票扩大了僵局和成员之间的嫌隙.
但不仅仅是离职人数增加了。这类型离开国会的议员也发生了变化。具体来说，如下图所示，越来越多的人在任职几届后就离开了白宫。
回到第110届国会(2007-08年)，只有四名任职时间不到10年的众议员退休或辞职，仅占国会离职总人数的11%。但在第114届国会(2015-16年)中——前议长约翰·博纳在右翼压力下辞职——这一数字飙升至57%，此后一直保持在40%至50%左右。
今年到目前为止，已有22名服务时间不足10年的代表退休或辞职。一些人，如众议员阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格，放弃众议院竞选更高的职位，如州长。**但至少有一人，亚利桑那州众议员黛比·莱斯科将从国会退休寻求较低的职位—马里科帕县监事会。其他人，如众议员格雷格·彭斯厌倦了国会的无能.
人才流失是国会面临的一个问题。在我们复杂、通常晦涩难懂的立法部门中，机构记忆是完成工作的重要组成部分，这也是政治科学家基本上发现这一点的原因之一国会任期限制是个坏主意。几个人似乎过早的离开备受瞩目的委员会主席更不用说前议长凯文·麦卡锡了，他留下了一个领导真空，特别是在共和党这边。仅任职四届的加拉格尔可能会离任尤其是斯汀因为他被视为一个有前途的严肃的立法者成为政党领袖总有一天。
因此，如果国会内斗正在让众议院聪明的年轻人举手投降——数据表明确实如此——那么这不仅仅是让国会目前的功能变得更弱。这也危及了它的未来。
*换句话说，这一统计包括已经辞职或宣布不再竞选连任的众议员。它不包括已被开除(即前众议员乔治·桑托斯)、去世(即前众议员唐纳德·麦凯钦)或输掉初选(即众议员杰里·卡尔)的成员。由于每日Kos选举保存一份运行列表。
* *值得注意的是，八名任职时间不到10年的众议员将离开众议院竞选参议员——这种现象在任何特定周期中都是意料之中的——因此他们不会完全离开国会。
House members seem to really hate their jobs
Members of the House of Representatives seem to hate their jobs so much, some can’t even see them through to the end of the year. On Friday, Rep. Mike Gallagher, who had already opted not to seek reelection, announced he wouldresign from the House in April. A week earlier, now-former Rep. Ken Buckdid the same thing— and didn’t mince words about why he was leaving. “It is the worst year of the nine years and three months that I’ve been in Congress, and having talked to former members, it’s the worst year in 40-50 years to be in Congress,”he told CNN.
Plenty of other representatives seem to agree. So far in the 118th Congress, 48 House members have either left or announced plans to leave Congress voluntarily.* That’s 11 percent of the House, and the session isn’t even over yet; a handful more will probably depart before the year is out.
Despite all thegloomy headlinesabout how recentdysfunction in Congressis pushing members toward the exits,that number isn’t a record. But it is part of a recent trend of members of Congress deciding they want out. As you can see in the graph below, the number of representatives voluntarily departing the House has been on an upward trajectory since the 109th Congress (2005-06).
If just three more representatives announce plans to leave — which seems likely, given how much time is left in the year — the current session of Congress will have the third-most departures of the last 20 years. And the top two were both recent examples: the 115th (2017-18) and 117th (2021-22) congresses.
What’s more, there was something unusual about each of those congresses. The 115th Congress had alarge number of resignations, as four representatives quit as a result of a #MeToo-related scandal and four quit to join former President Donald Trump’s cabinet. And the 117th Congress coincided with a redistricting cycle based on the 2020 census — the redrawing of everyone’s districts often leads more people to retire than usual.
While redistricting has prompted a handful of departures in this Congress as well (for example, North Carolinafinalized a completely redrawn map in November, leaving three Democratic members with nowhere to run), there isn’t an equivalent special circumstance about the current congress that explains why departures are so high — other than the paralysis oftwo protracted speaker elections,gridlock amplified by a razor-thin majorityandbad blood between members.
But it’s not just the number of departures that has increased. Thetypeof member who is leaving Congress has changed too. Specifically, more and more people are leaving the House after just a few terms in office, as the chart below shows.
Back in the 110th Congress (2007-08), only four representatives with less than 10 years of service time retired or resigned, making up just 11 percent of the total departures that congress. But in the 114th Congress (2015-16) — which was marked by the resignation of former Speaker John Boehner under pressure from his right flank — that number spiked to 57 percent, and it has stayed around 40-50 percent ever since.
So far this year, 22 representatives with less than 10 years of service time have retired or resigned. Some, like Rep. Abigail Spanberger, are bailing on the House to run for higher office, like governor.** But at least one, Arizona Rep. Debbie Lesko, is retiring from Congress toseek a lower office— the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. And others, like Rep. Greg Pence, havejust gotten sick of Congress’s fecklessness.
This brain drain is a problem for Congress. Institutional memory is an important part of getting things done in our complex, often arcane legislative branch, which is one reason political scientists have largely found thatcongressional term limits are a bad idea. The seemingly premature departures of severalhigh-profile committee chairs— not to mention former Speaker Kevin McCarthy — have left a leadership vacuum, particularly on the GOP side of the aisle. And the departure of Gallagher, who has served just four terms, mayparticularly stingas he was seen as an up-and-coming serious legislator who could havebecome a party leadersomeday.
So if congressional infighting is making the House’s smart young blood throw up their hands and abandon ship — and the data suggests that it is — then it’s not just making Congress less functional in the present. It’s endangering its future as well.
*In other words, this tally includes representatives who have resigned or announced that they will not be running for reelection. It doesn’t include members who have been expelled (i.e., former Rep. George Santos), died (i.e., former Rep. Donald McEachin) or lost primaries (i.e., Rep. Jerry Carl). Thanks toDaily Kos Electionsfor keeping a running list.
**It’s worth noting that eight representatives with less than 10 years of service time are leaving the House to run for Senate — a phenomenon to be expected in any given cycle — so they’re not leaving Congress entirely.
