去年10月的一个凉爽的日子，当华盛顿特区的联邦官员为选举新的众议院议长争吵不休时，菲尔·斯科特正在谈论建筑业。
佛蒙特州州长站在州府蒙彼利埃外的一个宽敞的车间里，周围是木梁和戴着亮蓝色安全帽的工人。在电钻的声音中，斯科特发表了近一个小时的讲话，内容是促进贸易行业的职业发展，建造更多的住房，以及通过鼓励移民来扩大该州的劳动力。他两次向该州全民主党国会代表团宣传他的工作，并点名检查了该州前民主党参议员帕特里克·莱希，说“我们想念他”
那天，一个漫不经心的观察者假设州长是民主党人是情有可原的;考虑到他的言辞以及佛蒙特州是美国最自由的州之一，投票给乔·拜登总统是再自然不过的事了上升了35个百分点2020年。并且根据从早上咨询开始的轮询斯科特是目前美国最受欢迎的州长。但这位连任四届的现任总统实际上是共和党人一生的爱在那。
专注于经济发展等非分裂性问题是斯科特不仅得以生存，而且在左倾州茁壮成长的部分原因。虽然作为一个整体来说一直在下降多年来，深蓝或红州选举反对党的高人气州长的现象肯定不是什么新鲜事。但538的一项新分析表明，虽然州长在全国范围内仍然广受欢迎，但斯科特和他的同事们可能没有乍看起来那么高的支持率。
晨间咨询公司长期以来一直发布美国州长和参议员的季度支持率。这些结果被广泛引用国家的和当地的新闻媒体也一样，包括由538。但是一些观察家已经注意到这些评级一贯显示所有或大多数州长的净支持率为正，鉴于当今的政治两极分化，这似乎令人震惊。在Morning Consult的最新一轮民意调查中，只有一名州长，密西西比州的泰特·里维斯的净支持率为负。
我们很好奇其他民调是否支持这一点，因此我们收集了2023年以来所有要求州长批准问题的州级民调(总共182项民调)，以了解其他公司的数据是否与Morning Consult的调查结果相符。总的来说，这些其他民调证实了Morning Consult的结论，即美国州长非常受欢迎。但是Morning Consult的数据仍然比其他民调机构的数据要乐观一些。
上午征询州长的支持率异常高
Morning Consult的2023年季度州长支持率比同一季度进行的所有其他民调的平均州长支持率高多少，与所有其他民调相比多多少受访者表达了观点
四分之一 民意测验数量 平均净差额 平均意见差异 1 45 4.6% 1.8% 2 38 5.9 2.5 3 35 4.9 2.7 4 64 9.4 10.3 全部 182 6.6 5.1
仅包括询问受访者是否认可或不认可其州长工作的问题。要求受访者以不同方式(如优秀、良好、一般或差)评价州长工作表现的问题不包括在内。如果民意调查在多个人群中公布结果，我们使用最广泛的可用样本(即，成年人比注册选民多，注册选民比可能选民多)。
来源:晨间咨询、民意调查
在2023年的每个季度，我们发现Morning Consult调查中的州长净支持率平均超过非Morning Consult民调7个百分点。我们还发现，Morning Consult民调显示，对州长表现发表任何意见(无论是积极还是消极意见)的受访者比例更高——每个季度平均高出5个百分点。这意味着较少的受访者表示他们不确定，或者他们没有充分了解他们的州长而无法发表意见。不过至关重要的是，这种差异在第四季度主要是由于艾默生学院(Emerson College)的调查造成的。与其他民调机构相比，艾默生学院的受访者表示自己没有观点的比例要高得多。如果不包括艾默生的民意调查，平均整体意见差异将降至仅2个百分点。
Morning Consult的发言人指出，Morning Consult和其他民调机构在问题措辞和回答选项上的差异是其结果可能不同的原因之一。Morning Consult的民意调查允许受访者通过询问自己“强烈”或“有点”赞同或不赞同来表达自己的观点。其他一些民调机构只允许受访者选择“赞成”、“不赞成”或一个未决定的选项，尽管许多机构提供了与Morning Consult类似的选项。另一个考虑是Morning Consult对注册选民进行民意调查，与更广泛的成年人相比，注册选民更有可能对批准和投票选择等政治问题发表意见。
“我们是唯一一家在所有50个州发布州长批准的机构，”这位发言人在一封电子邮件中表示。“这是使用相同的问题格式、模式和人群跨州比较当选领导人的唯一标准指标。”
值得称赞的是，当我们将Morning Consult的数据与当地民调机构的数据进行比较时，差异较小。如果只考虑与民意调查所在州相同的民意调查机构进行的民意调查，平均季度差异下降了2个百分点以上，发表意见的受访者差异缩小了3个百分点。当地民调机构通常最了解他们所在的州，因此晨间咨询公司的数据与当地专家的匹配率高于整体平均水平，这是该公司的优势之一。
晨间咨询公司的数据更符合当地民调机构的调查结果
Morning Consult的2023年季度州长支持率比当地民意调查机构在同一季度进行的民意调查中的平均州长支持率高多少，与当地民意调查相比多多少受访者表达了意见
四分之一 民意测验数量 平均净差额 平均意见差异 1 29 1.6% 1.6% 2 21 6.1 1.9 3 14 2.2 0.9 4 26 7.2 3.9 全部 90 4.3 2.2
本地民意测验是指在民意测验者所在的州进行的民意测验。仅包括询问受访者是否赞同或不赞同其州长工作的问题。要求受访者以不同的方式评价其州长工作表现的问题，如优秀、良好、一般或差，不包括在内。如果民意调查在多个人群中公布结果，我们使用最广泛的可用样本(即，成年人对注册选民，注册选民对潜在选民)。
来源:晨间咨询、民意调查
但抛开数据集之间的差异，在非上午咨询民意调查中，几乎一半的州长仍然拥有+10点或更高的净支持率。在同一数据集中，去年只有三位州长的净支持率为负:里维斯、爱达荷州的布拉德·利特尔和内布拉斯加州的吉姆·皮伦。然而，这些结果带有很多不确定性:我们去年在爱达荷州和内布拉斯加州各只有一次资格投票，都来自艾默生学院，这与Morning Consult一贯的发现相反降低与数据集中其他民意调查者相比的支持率。在六个州，没有一个合格的民意调查询问州长的批准。这包括俄勒冈州，根据Morning Consult的数据，该州州长蒂娜·科特克(Tina Kotek)去年一直被评为美国最不受欢迎的州长之一，但我们没有其他民调可以与之相比。
州长在美国很受欢迎。
根据去年进行的所有非上午咨询民意调查，以及在每个州进行的民意调查数量，2023年美国每个州长的平均支持率和不支持率
状态 管理者 民意测验数量 平均支持率 一般不赞成 净批准 特拉华河 约翰·卡尼 1* 68.0 25.0 +43.0 犹他州 斯潘塞·考克斯 3 62.0 28.7 +33.3 佛蒙特州 菲尔·斯科特 4 62.5 30.8 +31.8 马里兰州 韦斯·摩尔 3 56.1 25.8 +30.3 马萨诸塞州 莫拉·希利 3 56.3 26.3 +30.0 康涅狄格州 内德·拉蒙特 1* 60.0 33.0 +27.0 新罕布什尔州 克里斯·苏努努 11 59.2 32.7 +26.5 宾夕法尼亚州 乔希·夏皮罗 9 52.2 26.3 +25.9 格鲁吉亚 布莱恩·坎普 2 60.1 35.2 +24.9 肯塔基 安迪·贝希尔 2 52.3 28.6 +23.7 北达科他州 道格·伯根 2 49.6 26.4 +23.3 西弗吉尼亚州 吉姆·贾斯蒂 3 51.1 28.0 +23.1 内华达州 乔·伦巴多 3 47.9 26.2 +21.7 怀俄明州 马克·戈登 1* 34.8 16.3 +18.5 缅因州 珍妮特·米尔斯 6 54.7 38.3 +16.3 南卡罗来纳州 亨利·麦克马斯特 5 49.6 33.3 +16.3 弗吉尼亚 格伦·杨金 13 52.9 37.3 +15.6 田纳西州 比尔·李 4 46.9 32.7 +14.2 密歇根 格雷琴·惠特默 9 52.0 38.9 +13.1 科罗拉多州 贾里德波利斯 2 45.2 32.7 +12.5 印第安纳 埃里克·霍尔科姆 1* 37.0 25.0 +12.0 北卡罗来纳州 罗伊·库珀 15 48.1 36.4 +11.6 蒙大拿 格雷格·詹福特 1* 36.7 26.2 +10.5 佛罗里达州 罗恩·德桑蒂斯 4 53.5 43.1 +10.4 威斯康星州 托尼·埃弗斯 4 50.7 41.0 +9.8 新泽西州 菲尔·墨菲 8 48.5 38.8 +9.8 堪萨斯州 劳拉·凯利 1* 39.2 29.6 +9.6 阿肯色州 莎拉·哈克比·桑德斯 2 44.2 34.9 +9.3 加利福尼亚 加文·纽瑟姆 11 50.5 41.7 +8.7 纽约 凯西·霍楚尔 10 49.0 42.3 +6.7 南达科他州 克里斯蒂·诺姆 1* 43.2 36.5 +6.7 亚利桑那州 凯蒂·霍布斯 3 42.4 36.2 +6.2 明尼苏达州 蒂姆·瓦尔兹 3 48.5 42.5 +5.9 密苏里河 迈克·帕森 4 44.5 39.0 +5.5 俄克拉何马州 凯文·斯蒂特 2 41.5 36.4 +5.1 俄亥俄州 迈克·德温 2 37.7 32.8 +4.9 路易斯安那 约翰·贝尔·爱德华兹 3 44.3 40.0 +4.3 新墨西哥州 米歇尔·卢汉·格里沙姆 1* 47.0 43.0 +4.0 得克萨斯州 格雷格·艾伯特 9 46.8 42.8 +4.0 伊利诺伊 普里茨克 2 44.3 41.0 +3.3 艾奥瓦州 金·雷诺兹 4 43.7 43.0 +0.7 密西西比河 泰特·里维斯 3 45.7 46.0 -0.3 爱达荷 布拉德·利特尔 1* 28.1 28.7 -0.6 内布拉斯加州 吉姆·皮伦 1* 25.6 26.4 -0.8 阿拉斯加 迈克·邓利维 0 不适用的 不适用的 不适用的 亚拉巴马州 凯·艾维 0 不适用的 不适用的 不适用的 夏威夷 乔什·格林 0 不适用的 不适用的 不适用的 俄勒冈州 蒂娜·科泰克 0 不适用的 不适用的 不适用的 罗得岛 丹·麦基 0 不适用的 不适用的 不适用的 华盛顿 杰伊·英斯利 0 不适用的 不适用的 不适用的
仅包括询问受访者是否认可或不认可其州长工作的问题。要求受访者以不同方式(如优秀、良好、一般或差)评价州长工作表现的问题不包括在内。如果民意调查在多个人群中公布结果，我们使用最广泛的可用样本(即，成年人比注册选民多，注册选民比可能选民多)。
*表示2023年只有一次州长支持率调查的州。应该更加小心地解释结果。
爱德华兹已不再任职，但我们将他纳入了这项分析，因为他在2023年全年担任州长。
资料来源:民意调查
州长在不同地区和党派之间如此受欢迎的一个原因是，他们不是联邦官员。这使他们能够置身于经常扰乱华盛顿特区的激烈争端和诽谤之外，就像去年秋天众议院试图选举新议长时发生的戏剧性事件一样。(当然，一些州长选择涉入这些辩论努力提升他们的国家形象，但是结局并不总是好的。)
大多数州长也在他们的州有三连胜，让他们能够宣传切实的政策成就。然而，联邦代表赚钱养家的能力受到他们的政党是否在全国执政的影响——以及联邦在国会和总统职位上的“三连胜”不经常发生比起在美国，州长们更容易通过他们的立法优先权。这使得他们能够建立一连串的成就他们可以用来讨好选民。或者，像斯科特这样的州长可以像理性的声音一样出现当他们反对措施时由他们州的执政党通过，公众可能会认为走得太远——尽管那可能不会停止立法机关如果有票数就不会推翻否决。
因此，尽管Morning Consult的数据比其他一些民调更有利于州长，但这一差异并没有真正改变民调机构结果的总体结论。美国各个角落的州长都非常受欢迎，通常是所在州最受欢迎的政治家。华盛顿的政党领导人。遇到过这样的麻烦最近吸引州长竞选国会议员:国家首都的混乱和戏剧性让他们中的许多人觉得他们在自己所在的地方过得很好。
Americans really love their governors
On a cool day last October, while federal officials in Washington, D.C., were squabbling to elect a new speaker of the House, Phil Scott was talking about construction.
The Vermont governor stood in a spacious workshop outside Montpelier, the state capital, surrounded by wooden beams and workers wearing bright blue hard hats. Over the sounds of power drills, Scott spoke for almost an hour about promoting careers in the trade industry, building more housing and expanding the state's workforce by encouraging immigration. He promoted his work with the state's all-Democratic congressional delegation twice and name-checked Patrick Leahy, the state's former Democratic U.S. senator, saying "we miss him."
A casual observer that day could have been forgiven for assuming the governor was a Democrat; it would be only natural, given his rhetoric and the fact that Vermont is one of the most liberal states in the country, voting for President Joe Bidenby 35 percentage pointsin 2020. And according topolling from Morning Consult, Scott is the most popular governor in America right now. But the four-term incumbent is actually a Republican, anda lifelong oneat that.
Focusing on non-divisive issues like economic development is part of what's allowed Scott to not just survive, but thrive in the left-leaning state. And while ticket-splitting as a wholehas been in declineover the years, the phenomenon of a deep-blue or red state electing a highly popular governor of the opposite partyis certainly nothing new.But a new analysis by 538 suggests that while governors remain broadly popular across the country, Scott and his fellow pols may not have as high of approval ratings as it appears at first glance.
Morning Consult has long released quarterly approval ratings for the nation's governors and U.S. senators. Those results are cited widely bynationalandlocalnews outlets alike,including by 538. Butsome observers have noticedthat these ratings, which consistently show all or most governors with a positive net approval rating, seem shocking given today's political polarization. In Morning Consult's most recent round of polling, only one governor, Tate Reeves of Mississippi, had a negative net approval rating.
We were curious if other polling backed this up, so we compiled every state-level poll from 2023 that asked a governor approval question (182 polls in all) to see if data from other firms matched Morning Consult's findings. On the whole, these other polls affirm Morning Consult's conclusions that America's governors are highly popular. But Morning Consult's data was still a bit rosier than that of other pollsters.
Morning Consult governor approval ratings are unusually high
How much higher Morning Consult’s 2023 quarterly governor approval ratings were than the average governor approval ratings from all other polls conducted in the same quarter, and how many more respondents expressed an opinion compared to all other polls
QUARTER NUMBER OF POLLS AVERAGE NET DIFFERENCE AVERAGE OPINION DIFFERENCE 1 45 4.6% 1.8% 2 38 5.9 2.5 3 35 4.9 2.7 4 64 9.4 10.3 All 182 6.6 5.1
Only includes questions that asked if respondents approved or disapproved of the job their governor was doing. Questions that asked respondents to rate their governor’s job performance in a different way, such as on a scale of excellent, good, fair or poor, were not included. If a poll published results among multiple populations, we used the broadest available sample (i.e., adults over registered voters and registered voters over likely voters).
SOURCES: MORNING CONSULT, POLLS
Across each quarter of 2023, we found that the net gubernatorial approval ratings in Morning Consult's surveys exceeded non-Morning Consult polls by an average of 7 percentage points. We also found that Morning Consult polls had a higher share of respondents who expressed any opinion, positive or negative, about how their governor is doing — an average of 5 points higher across each quarter. That means fewer respondents said they weren't sure, or that they hadn't heard enough about their governor to have an opinion. Crucially though, much of that difference came in the fourth quarter due to surveys from Emerson College, which had much higher rates of respondents who said they didn't have an opinion compared with other pollsters. When Emerson's polls aren't included, the average overall opinion difference drops to just 2 points.
A spokesperson for Morning Consult pointed to the differences in question wording and response options between Morning Consult and other pollsters as one reason why its results may be different. Morning Consult's polls allow respondents to express the strength of their opinion by asking whether they "strongly" or "somewhat" approve or disapprove. Some other pollsters only allow respondents to choose "approve," "disapprove" or an undecided option, although many provide similar options as Morning Consult. Another consideration is that Morning Consult polls registered voters, who are more likely to have an opinion on political questions like approval and vote choice than the broader adult population.
"We are the only outlet who releases governor approval in all 50 states," the spokesperson said in an email. "It's the only standard metric for comparing elected leaders across state lines using the same question format, mode, and population."
To the firm's credit, when we compared Morning Consult's data with just local pollsters, the differences were smaller. When considering only polls conducted by pollsters who are based in the same state that the poll was fielded in, the average quarterly difference dropped by over 2 points, and the difference in respondents who express any opinion shrank by 3 points. Local pollsters usually know their states best, so it's a point in Morning Consult's favor that its data matches the local experts at a higher rate than the overall average.
Morning Consult’s data aligned more with local pollsters
How much higher Morning Consult’s 2023 quarterly governor approval ratings were than the average governor approval ratings from polls conducted by local pollsters in the same quarter, and how many more respondents expressed an opinion compared to local polls
QUARTER NUMBER OF POLLS AVERAGE NET DIFFERENCE AVERAGE OPINION DIFFERENCE 1 29 1.6% 1.6% 2 21 6.1 1.9 3 14 2.2 0.9 4 26 7.2 3.9 All 90 4.3 2.2
A local poll is defined as one fielded in the same state in which the pollster is based. Only includes questions that asked if respondents approved or disapproved of the job their governor was doing. Questions that asked respondents to rate their governor’s job performance in a different way, such as on a scale of excellent, good, fair or poor, were not included. If a poll published results among multiple populations, we used the broadest available sample (i.e., adults over registered voters and registered voters over likely voters).
SOURCES: MORNING CONSULT, POLLS
But setting aside the differences between the datasets, almost half of the nation's governors still had a net approval rating of +10 points or higher among the non-Morning Consult polls. And in that same dataset, only three governors had a net negative approval rating last year: Reeves, Brad Little of Idaho and Jim Pillen of Nebraska. Those results come with a lot of uncertainty, though: We had only one qualifying poll each in Idaho and Nebraska last year, both from Emerson College, which contrary to Morning Consult found consistentlylowerapproval ratings compared to the rest of the pollsters in our dataset. And in six states, there wasn't a single qualifying poll asking about governor approval. That includes Oregon, where Gov. Tina Kotek was consistently ranked as one of the least popular governors in America last year, according to Morning Consult, but with which we have no other polls to compare.
Governors are highly popular across the U.S.
Average approval and disapproval rating of each governor in the U.S. in 2023, according to all non-Morning Consult polls conducted last year, along with the number of polls conducted in each state
STATE GOVERNOR NUMBER OF POLLS AVERAGE APPROVAL AVERAGE DISAPPROVAL NET APPROVAL Delaware John Carney 1* 68.0 25.0 +43.0 Utah Spencer Cox 3 62.0 28.7 +33.3 Vermont Phil Scott 4 62.5 30.8 +31.8 Maryland Wes Moore 3 56.1 25.8 +30.3 Massachusetts Maura Healey 3 56.3 26.3 +30.0 Connecticut Ned Lamont 1* 60.0 33.0 +27.0 New Hampshire Chris Sununu 11 59.2 32.7 +26.5 Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro 9 52.2 26.3 +25.9 Georgia Brian Kemp 2 60.1 35.2 +24.9 Kentucky Andy Beshear 2 52.3 28.6 +23.7 North Dakota Doug Burgum 2 49.6 26.4 +23.3 West Virginia Jim Justice 3 51.1 28.0 +23.1 Nevada Joe Lombardo 3 47.9 26.2 +21.7 Wyoming Mark Gordon 1* 34.8 16.3 +18.5 Maine Janet Mills 6 54.7 38.3 +16.3 South Carolina Henry McMaster 5 49.6 33.3 +16.3 Virginia Glenn Youngkin 13 52.9 37.3 +15.6 Tennessee Bill Lee 4 46.9 32.7 +14.2 Michigan Gretchen Whitmer 9 52.0 38.9 +13.1 Colorado Jared Polis 2 45.2 32.7 +12.5 Indiana Eric Holcomb 1* 37.0 25.0 +12.0 North Carolina Roy Cooper 15 48.1 36.4 +11.6 Montana Greg Gianforte 1* 36.7 26.2 +10.5 Florida Ron DeSantis 4 53.5 43.1 +10.4 Wisconsin Tony Evers 4 50.7 41.0 +9.8 New Jersey Phil Murphy 8 48.5 38.8 +9.8 Kansas Laura Kelly 1* 39.2 29.6 +9.6 Arkansas Sarah Huckabee Sanders 2 44.2 34.9 +9.3 California Gavin Newsom 11 50.5 41.7 +8.7 New York Kathy Hochul 10 49.0 42.3 +6.7 South Dakota Kristi Noem 1* 43.2 36.5 +6.7 Arizona Katie Hobbs 3 42.4 36.2 +6.2 Minnesota Tim Walz 3 48.5 42.5 +5.9 Missouri Mike Parson 4 44.5 39.0 +5.5 Oklahoma Kevin Stitt 2 41.5 36.4 +5.1 Ohio Mike DeWine 2 37.7 32.8 +4.9 Louisiana John Bel Edwards† 3 44.3 40.0 +4.3 New Mexico Michelle Lujan Grisham 1* 47.0 43.0 +4.0 Texas Greg Abbott 9 46.8 42.8 +4.0 Illinois J.B. Pritzker 2 44.3 41.0 +3.3 Iowa Kim Reynolds 4 43.7 43.0 +0.7 Mississippi Tate Reeves 3 45.7 46.0 -0.3 Idaho Brad Little 1* 28.1 28.7 -0.6 Nebraska Jim Pillen 1* 25.6 26.4 -0.8 Alaska Mike Dunleavy 0 N/A N/A N/A Alabama Kay Ivey 0 N/A N/A N/A Hawaii Josh Green 0 N/A N/A N/A Oregon Tina Kotek 0 N/A N/A N/A Rhode Island Dan McKee 0 N/A N/A N/A Washington Jay Inslee 0 N/A N/A N/A
Only includes questions that asked if respondents approved or disapproved of the job their governor was doing. Questions that asked respondents to rate their governor’s job performance in a different way, such as on a scale of excellent, good, fair or poor, were not included. If a poll published results among multiple populations, we used the broadest available sample (i.e., adults over registered voters and registered voters over likely voters).
*Denotes states with only one governor approval poll in 2023. Results should be interpreted with greater care.
†Edwards is no longer in office, but we included him in this analysis since he was governor for all of 2023.
SOURCE: POLLS
One reason that governors are so consistently well-liked across regional and partisan divides is the simple fact that they are not federal officials. That allows them to stay out of the fiery disputes and mudslinging that often roil Washington, D.C., like the drama that accompanied the House of Representatives' attempts to elect a new speaker last fall. (Of course, some governors choose towade into these debatesanyway in an effort to raise their national profile, butthat doesn't always end well.)
Most governors alsohave trifectas in their states, allowing them to campaign on tangible policy achievements. Whereas a federal representative's ability to bring home the bacon is affected by whether or not their party is in power nationally — and federal "trifectas" across Congress and the presidencyoccur less frequentlythan in the states — governors are able to pass their legislative priorities much more easily. That allows them to build upa laundry list of achievementsthat they can use to ingratiate themselves to voters. Alternatively, governors like Scott can appear like the voice of reasonwhen they oppose measurespassed by the dominant party in their state that the publicmay view as going too far— although thatmight not stopthe legislature from overriding a veto if it has the votes.
So, despite the fact that Morning Consult's data is more favorable to governors than some other polls, that difference doesn't really change the overall takeaway from the pollster's results. Governors in every corner of the U.S. are extremely popular, often the most popular politician in their state. There's a reason why party leaders in D.C.have had such troubleluring governors to run for Congress lately: The chaos and theatrics in the nation's capital are making many of them feel like they have it pretty good right where they are.
