美国最重要的战场州之一宾夕法尼亚州将于周二举行初选。除了总统竞选，Keystone州还将举办一场——咳咳——键参议院竞选和11月的多场竞争激烈的美国众议院竞选，更不用说州行政和立法机构的选举了。周二的初选将决定这些竞选的提名人，他们的选择可能会影响大选的竞争力以及政党未来的意识形态定位。该州最引人注目的初选将在四个美国众议院席位中进行，这将是我们下面预览的主要焦点，但请继续关注我们周二晚上在直播博客中对所有比赛的全面报道。
宾夕法尼亚州
值得关注的比赛:美国参议院、第一、第七、第十和第十二国会选区;
总检察长、审计员、司库、州议会
投票结束:东部时间晚上8点
总部位于匹兹堡的第12区这是一个坚定的蓝色席位，乔·拜登总统在2020年将获得约20个百分点的席位，根据科索沃每日选举。在至关重要的民主党初选中，进步众议员李夏苏可能会容易受到埃奇伍德区议会议员巴维尼·帕特尔的攻击:在她2022年首次竞选该席位时，李只赢得了民主党初选差不到一分。帕特尔的挑战已经变成了对李明博政党诚意的公投。这背后是李的会员身份团队这是一群经常与党内领导人发生分歧的进步众议院民主党人。明天的初选将是对该党中左翼对其进步左翼的挑战能否在这个周期取得真正成功的早期考验特别是在以色列和哈马斯在加沙冲突的话题上.
李的批评者经常描绘她帕特尔竞选团队强调的一个主题是教条主义而不是务实主义，他们认为李想削弱拜登和民主党。她刊登攻击李的广告因未能支持拜登政府，引用了一个2022年大桥坍塌在匹兹堡以及如何拜登签署的2021年基础设施法帮助快点修好它。重要的是，李在2021年不在国会，尽管当时的阵容投票反对该法案。帕特尔还批评李的支持为了“非承诺”运动在民主党总统初选中，该党试图向拜登施压，要求他采取不那么亲以色列的立场。同时，适度包装，超级包装主要由一位主要的共和党捐赠者资助，使用了类似的消息传递质疑李的政党信誉和批评她为投票反对2023年债务上限协议受到大多数民主党人的支持.
现任官员为自己在这场攻击中的表现进行了辩护。她竞选广告强调她“搭建桥梁”的能力，声称她为该地区带来了超过10亿美元的联邦支出，以及她在民主党高度关注保护堕胎权利之际支持堕胎的记录。李的竞选也批评了“共和党资助的超级政治行动委员会”干预竞选，参考帕特尔的支持从适度包装和潜在的影响美国以色列公共事务委员会表示可能会花费一亿美元反对进步派。
在初选中，李可能确实占了上风。我们没有民意调查，但是李已经超越了截至4月3日，帕特尔的赔率接近4比1(230万美元至60.2万美元)。与此同时，外部支出基本持平，根据OpenSecrets温和的政治行动委员会花费612，000美元援助帕特尔，各种团体花费664，000美元支持李——其中一些是进步的“拒绝美国公共事务委员会”联盟的一部分。然而令人惊讶的是，AIPAC的超级PAC不花钱对付李尽管投资390万美元阻止她参加2022年的初选。这一决定可能意味着AIPAC认为帕特尔不可能获胜，她已经获得了足够的外部支持和/或与AIPAC相关的支持实际上可能对帕特尔有害而非有益。我们只能拭目以待。
在国家的另一边第七区该州的利哈伊山谷将成为今年秋季该州(乃至全国)竞争最激烈的众议院选举之一。2022年，民主党众议员苏珊·怀尔德保住了她的席位仅差2分共和党人希望他们这次能够扭转局面——在众议院以微弱优势占据多数席位的情况下，他们能够从民主党手中夺取的任何席位都可能在共和党保持对众议院的控制方面发挥作用。怀尔德正在竞选连任第四届国会议员，在民主党初选中没有对手，而三名共和党人正在共和党方面争夺11月的选票。
咨询公司老板凯文·德利克尔(Kevin Dellicker)是2022年共和党初选的亚军，费城宾夕法尼亚会议中心管理局前公共事务主任玛丽亚·蒙特罗(Maria Montero)律师正与州众议员瑞安·麦肯齐(Ryan Mackenzie)展开对决。据报道，德利克尔的支持率比他的对手高出约一倍最近的联邦选举委员会文件，为麦肯齐的27.2万美元和蒙特罗的21.4万美元带来了44.7万美元的收入。但是麦肯齐得到了外界的大力支持将近50万美元来自科赫兄弟创立的自由主义超级政治行动委员会“美国繁荣行动”。这场比赛没有投票三名候选人之间没有太多的分歧当谈到移民、堕胎和气候变化等热点问题的政策立场时，它可能是任何人的比赛。然而，麦肯齐竞选活动的巨额支出和他在当地的知名度——他在该地区长大，自2012年以来一直在州大会上代表该地区，他的母亲自2021年以来也一直是当地的州代表——是明显的优势。
就在南部的雄鹿县第一区共和党众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克正面临反堕胎活动人士马克·霍克的主要挑战。马克·霍克是一个为天主教男性设立的非营利性牧师组织的负责人。菲茨帕特里克于2016年首次当选国会议员，接替他的兄弟(现任国会议员)已故前众议员迈克·菲茨帕特里克).自那以后，他在每次选举中都面临着一个主要的挑战者，但总是获胜。众所周知的温和派，菲茨帕特里克已经远离共和党的右翼:他有一个径赛项最好成绩记录关于两党合作和温和的政策立场在国会和拒绝支持道格·马斯特里亚诺共和党2022年极右翼州长候选人，甚至冷落特朗普对雄鹿县的访问本月初。他在堕胎问题上的立场不太明确——在他的连任竞选网站上没有提到堕胎——尽管他已经退出了堕胎权利组织的愤怒。但他肯定不像被指控犯有人身伤害罪的豪克那样是文化战士(但被判无罪)此前，他在费城一家计划生育机构外抗议时推搡了一名72岁的诊所志愿者。该组织反对“同性吸引障碍”和色情制品，并致力于关闭“性导向企业”。
在这个地区，共和党最有可能希望菲茨帕特里克再次战胜他的极右翼挑战者。无论谁赢得初选，都将与民主党人阿什利·艾哈兹展开竞争2022年以10分之差落败但该地区是紫色的，并显示出蓝色转移的迹象——拜登在2020年赢得了该地区，民主党在2020年赢得了所有五个席位最近的地方学校董事会选举。菲茨帕特里克是费城周围地区唯一的共和党人，尽管他的那些领郡中最白的一个以及该郡的保守地区越来越两极化。这可能意味着菲茨帕特里克在党内初选中面临豪克的激烈竞争，但如果豪克在11月参加投票，他的极右翼倾向可能会使大选竞争向民主党倾斜。
向西转移到哈里斯堡基地第10区在宾夕法尼亚州中部，共和党众议员斯科特·佩里在2022年以略低于8个百分点的优势赢得连任。但他仍然是民主党的目标，这要归功于该地区的潜在竞争力(特朗普在2020年只会以4个百分点的优势赢得该地区)以及佩里作为主要保守派的声誉——他是强硬右翼众议院自由核心小组的前主席。六名竞选者进入民主党初选，争取在11月与佩里对决的权利，这场初选的结果存在一定程度的不确定性。
如果有一个领跑者，可能是前新闻主播贾内尔·斯特尔森，谁的长期任期在哈里斯堡-兰开斯特-黎巴嫩-约克电视市场的WGAL工作使她成为该地区的熟面孔。斯特尔森筹集了57.7万美元截至4月3日，以及她有代言从艾米丽的名单,有利于商业的新民主行动基金和一个数字关于劳工团体。然而，斯特尔森有竞争对手退役海军陆战队战斗机飞行员迈克·奥布莱恩，他比斯特尔森略高一筹赚了73.6万美元，他自己的本地劳工支持和一份来自民主党服务。另一位值得注意的候选人是哈里斯堡市议会成员沙曼·丹尼尔斯，他是该党2022年提名的佩里的对手，尽管她只是长大了$73,000.
但斯特尔森和奥布莱恩都有潜在的弱点，可能会影响他们的机会。每个人都面临质疑关于他们和这个地区的关系斯特尔森就住在兰开斯特郡的郊外，奥布莱恩最近才搬到这个地方。斯特尔森也是最近才换的她的政党登记从共和党改为民主党，尽管她声称这是因为她的父母是共和党人，她长期以来一直在无党派媒体工作。丹尼尔斯呢袭击了斯特尔森大约十年前，他在节目中开了一个关于亚洲人吃猫的种族主义玩笑，称这表明斯特尔森不认同民主党的价值观。这是否足以让斯特尔森下台还有待观察:这是我们最近看到的唯一一次民意调查是二月底的一项调查彼得·诺明顿为斯特尔森的竞选活动该公司发现她以36%的支持率领先，丹尼尔斯和奥布莱恩分别以16%和9%的支持率紧随其后。
在……里参议院在竞选中，民主党资深参议员小鲍勃·凯西(里坡-内波的孩子，他的父亲在1987-1995年期间担任宾夕法尼亚州州长)和共和党人大卫·麦考密克在初选中没有竞争对手。麦考密克是对冲基金Bridgewater Associates的前首席执行官，也是乔治·w·布什政府时期财政部负责国际事务的副部长。麦考密克制造了2022年昂贵的参议员竞选但是被险胜(比如，狭义地叙述电视名人穆罕默德·奥兹在共和党初选中击败了现任参议员约翰·费特曼。这将是11月份的一场竞赛，但提名人已经确定。
最后但并非最不重要的一点是，宾夕法尼亚州也有向下投票办公室的选举。在公开席位的竞争中司法部长，五个民主党人正在争夺党的提名，而两名共和党人在共和党初选中对决。对州的争夺听者特征势均力敌的初选在民主党方面的权利，面对共和党现任蒂莫西迪福尔。同样，两个民主党人正在初选中竞争挑战现任共和党出纳员斯泰西·加里蒂，特朗普的长期支持者之前曾让人怀疑宾夕法尼亚州2020年选举结果。此外，宾夕法尼亚州将举行初选联合国大会在秋季，两院看起来都很有竞争力。在州众议院，民主党人拥有微弱的多数，102席对共和党的100席(有一个空缺深红色的座位)，所有203个区都在今年11月。在州参议院，共和党拥有28至22个席位的优势，但今年投票选举了一半的席位，民主党可能有机会民主党副州长奥斯汀·戴维斯将打破平局。
更正(2024年4月22日下午3点):这篇文章的前一个版本称，众议员斯科特·佩里目前担任众议院自由核心小组主席。2024年初，弗吉尼亚州众议员鲍勃·古德接替佩里担任党团主席。此外，这个故事的前一个版本称，美国众议院候选人玛丽亚·蒙特罗是宾夕法尼亚州会议中心管理局公共事务的现任主任。她是前任主任。
4 House primaries to watch in Pennsylvania
One of the country's most important battleground states, Pennsylvania, has a primary election on Tuesday. Beyond the presidential race, the Keystone State will host a — ahem —keySenate contest and multiple competitive U.S. House races in November, not to mention elections for offices in the state executive and legislature. Primary voters on Tuesday will determine the nominees for these contests, and the choices they make could influence the competitiveness of general election matchups as well as the future ideological positioning of the parties. The state's most high-profile contested primaries will take place in four U.S. House seats, which will be the main focus of our preview below, but stay tuned for full coverage of all the races during our liveblog on Tuesday night.
Pennsylvania
Races to watch:U.S. Senate, 1st, 7th, 10th and 12th congressional districts;
attorney general, auditor, treasurer, state legislature
Polls close:8 p.m. Eastern
Leading off is the Pittsburgh-based12th District, a solidly blue seat that President Joe Biden would have carried by about 20 percentage points in 2020,according to Daily Kos Elections. In the all-important Democratic primary, progressive Rep. Summer Lee could be vulnerable against Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel: In her first bid for this seat in 2022, Leeonly won the Democratic primaryby less than a point. And Patel's challenge has turned into a referendum on Lee's party bona fides. Behind this is Lee's membership inThe Squad, a group of progressive House Democrats who've often been at odds with party leaders. Tomorrow's primary will be an early test of whether challenges from the party's center-left against its progressive left flank will find real success this cycle —particularly over the topic of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
Lee's criticshave often portrayed heras more dogmatic than pragmatic, a theme Patel's campaign has played up, arguing that Lee wants to undermine Biden and the Democratic Party. Shehas run ads attacking Leefor failing to support the Biden administration, citing a2022 bridge collapsein Pittsburgh and howBiden's signature 2021 infrastructure lawhelpedquickly fix it. Importantly, Lee wasn't in Congress in 2021, although The Squad at that timevoted against the bill. Patel has alsocriticized Lee's supportfor the"uncommitted" movementin the Democratic presidential primary that has sought to pressure Biden to adopt a less pro-Israel stance. Meanwhile, Moderate PAC, a super PACfunded largely by a leading Republican donor, has used similar messagingto impugn Lee's party credibilityandcriticize herforvoting againstthe 2023 debt ceiling dealbacked by most Democrats.
The incumbent has defended her record against this onslaught. Hercampaign ads have emphasizedher ability to "build bridges," claiming that she's brought more than $1 billion to the district in federal spending, as well as her pro-choice record at a time when Democrats are highly focused on protecting abortion rights. Lee's campaignhas also criticized"Republican-funded super PACs" for meddling in the race,referencing Patel's backingfrom Moderate PAC andthe potential influenceof the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, whichhas said it might spend$100 million against progressives this cycle.
Heading into the primary, Lee probably does have the upper hand. We have no polls, but Leehad outraisedPatel nearly 4-to-1 ($2.3 million to $602,000) as of April 3. Meanwhile, outside spending has run about even,according to OpenSecrets, with Moderate PAC spending $612,000 to aid Patel and various groups spending $664,000 to boost Lee — some of whichare part of a progressive "Reject AIPAC" coalition. Surprisingly, though, AIPAC's super PAC hasnotspent money against Leedespite investing $3.9 million to stop her in the 2022 primary. That decision may mean that AIPAC thinks Patel can't win, that she already has sufficient outside support and/or that support associated with AIPAC could actually harm Patel more than help her. We'll just have to see.
On the other side of the state, the7th Districtin the state's Lehigh Valley is set to be theone of the most competitive House races in the state (and the nation) this fall. In 2022, Democratic Rep. Susan Wild held onto her seatby just 2 points, and Republicans are hoping they can flip it this time around — with such a slim majority in the lower chamber, any seat they're able to grab from the Democrats could make the difference in the GOP maintaining control of the House. Wild is running for reelection to a fourth term in Congress unopposed in the Democratic primary, while three Republicans are battling it out on the GOP side to be on the ballot in November.
Kevin Dellicker, a consulting company owner who was the runner-up in the 2022 GOP primary here, and attorney Maria Montero, the former director of public affairs at the Pennsylvania Convention Center Authority in Philadelphia, are squaring off against state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Dellicker has outraised his opponents by about double, according torecent FEC filings, bringing in $447,000 to Mackenzie's $272,000 and Montero's $214,000. But Mackenzie has received substantial outside support to thetune of almost half a million dollarsfrom Americans for Prosperity Action, a libertarian super PAC founded by the Koch brothers. There's no polling available for this race andnot a ton of daylight between the three candidateswhen it comes to policy positions on hot-button issues like immigration, abortion and climate change, so it could be anyone's race. However, the heavy spending on Mackenzie's campaign and his local name recognition — he grew up in the region, he has represented it in the state general assembly since 2012 and his mother has also been a local state representative since 2021 — are distinct advantages.
Just to the south in the Bucks County-based1st District, Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is facing a primary challenge from Mark Houck, an anti-abortion activist and head of a nonprofit ministry group for Catholic men. Fitzpatrick was first elected to Congress in 2016, succeeding his brother (thelate former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick). He's faced a primary challenger in every election since, but has always triumphed. A well-known moderate, Fitzpatrick has distanced himself from the right flank of the GOP: He's got atrack recordofbipartisanshipandmoderate policy stancesin Congress andrefused to endorse Doug Mastriano, the GOP's far-right nominee for governor in 2022 — and evensnubbed Trump's visit to Bucks Countyearlier this month. His position on abortion has been a bit less clear — there's no mention of abortion on his reelection campaign website — though he has drawnire from abortion rights groups. But he's certainly no culture warrior like Houck, who was charged with assault (butfound not guilty) after shoving a 72-year-old clinic volunteer while protesting outside a Planned Parenthood in Philadelphia, and whose organization opposes "same-sex attraction disorders" and pornography, and works to shut down "sexually oriented businesses."
In this district, the GOP most likely wants Fitzpatrick to once again win out over his far-right challenger. Whoever wins the primary will be going up against Democrat Ashley Ehasz, whom Fitzpatrickdefeated in 2022 by 10 points, but the area is purple and shows signs of shifting blue — Biden won the district in 2020, and Democrats swept all five seats up for grabs in arecent local school board election. Fitzpatrick is the lone Republican in the districts surrounding Philadelphia, though his isthe whitest of those collar countiesand the conservative areas of the countyare increasingly polarized. That could mean Fitzpatrick faces serious competition from Houck in the party primary, but Houck's far-right leanings could tilt the general election contest toward Democrats if he makes the ballot in November.
Moving west to the Harrisburg-based10th Districtin central Pennsylvania, Republican Rep. Scott Perry won reelection by a little less than 8 points in 2022. But he remains a target for Democrats, thanks to the district's potential competitiveness (Trump would've carried it by just 4 points in 2020) and Perry's reputation as an archconservative — he's the former chair of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus. A crowd of six contenders have entered the Democratic primary to earn the right to face Perry in November, and there's some degree of uncertainty about how this primary might play out.
If there's a front-runner, it's probably former news anchor Janelle Stelson,whose long tenureat WGAL in the Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York TV market has made her a familiar face in the region. Stelsonhad raised $577,000as of April 3, andshe has endorsementsfromEMILY's List,the business-friendly New Democratic Action Fundanda numberoflabor groups. However, Stelson has competition inretired Marine fighter pilotMike O'Brien,who has slightly outraised Stelsonby bringing in $736,000,his own local labor supportand an endorsement fromDemocrats Serve. The other candidate of note is Harrisburg City Council member Shamaine Daniels, the party's 2022 nominee against Perry, althoughshe's only raised$73,000.
But Stelson and O'Brien both have potential weaknesses that could affect their chances. Each has faced questionsabout their ties to the district, as Stelson lives just outside it in Lancaster County and O'Brien only recently moved to the area. Stelson alsoonly recently switchedher party registration from Republican to Democrat, although she claims this was because her parents were Republicans and she had long worked in a nonpartisan media role. And Danielshas attacked Stelsonfor having made a racist joke on air around a decade ago about Asians eating cats, saying it signals Stelson doesn't share Democrats' values. Whether that's enough to derail Stelson remains to be seen: The only recent poll we've seenwas a late February surveyfor Stelson's campaign by Normington, Petts& Associates that found her leading with 36 percent, followed by Daniels at 16 percent and O'Brien at 9 percent.
In theSenaterace, both Democratic senior Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (a poli-nepo-baby—his dad was governor of Pennsylvania from 1987-1995) and Republican David McCormick are running unopposed in their primaries. McCormick is the former CEO of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and was the Treasury Department's under secretary for international affairs during the George W. Bush administration. McCormick madean expensive bid for Senate in 2022but was narrowly defeated (like,recount narrowly) in the GOP primary by TV personality Mehmet Oz, who subsequently lost the general election to now-Sen. John Fetterman. This will be a race to watch come November, but the nominees are already set.
Last but not least, Pennsylvania has elections for downballot offices on the menu as well. In the open-seat race forAttorney General, five Democratsare battling for the party's nomination, while two Republicansare facing off in the GOP primary. The contest for stateAuditorfeaturesa head-to-head primaryon the Democratic side for the right to face Republican incumbent Timothy DeFoor. Similarly, two Democratsare battling in the primaryto take on incumbent GOPTreasurerStacy Garrity, a longtime Trump supporter whohas previously cast doubton Pennsylvania's 2020 election results. Additionally, Pennsylvania will have primaries for the stateGeneral Assembly, where both chambers look competitive in the fall. In the state House of Representatives, Democratshold the slimmest of majorities, 102 seats to the GOP's 100 (with one vacancyin a deep red seat), and all 203 districts are up this November. In the state Senate, Republicans hold a 28-to-22 seat edge, but with half the chamber's seats on the ballot this year, Democratsmight have a shotat gaining just enough to force a tie that would be broken by Democratic Lt. Gov. Austin Davis.
CORRECTION (April 22, 2024, 3:00 p.m.):A previous version of this article stated that Rep. Scott Perry currently chairs the House Freedom Caucus. At the beginning of 2024, Virginia Rep. Bob Good succeeded Perry as caucus chair. Additionally, a previous version of this story stated that U.S. House candidate Maria Montero is the current director of public affairs at the Pennsylvania Convention Center Authority. She is the former director.
