2024年大选已经被定位为创造历史——唐纳德·特朗普距离成为自1892年以来的首位前总统卸任后赢得党内提名，而他与总统乔·拜登的竞争是自1956年以来的首次总统复赛。现在，辩论也与过去决裂了:上周，CNN宣布拜登和特朗普同意在6月27日会面如果真的发生了，标志着有史以来最早的大选辩论总统竞选中。CNN的事件和9月10日的辩论由ABC新闻宣布也避开了总统辩论委员会管理这个过程自1988年以来。这是一次罕见的两党合作:共和党全国委员会在2022年退出了CPD，拜登团队通缉没有观众和两个竞选团队都希望尽早进行辩论比CPD的2024年提案呼吁.
一段时间以来，拜登和特朗普已经获得了各自政党的推定提名，他们渴望面对并向美国选民推销各自的案件。但是，第三位候选人有资格参选的可能性使拜登和特朗普之间的辩论远非定局。CNN和ABC新闻都制定了规则，为独立候选人小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪的参与打开了大门——这种可能性似乎很沮丧拜登团队。如果发生这种情况，肯尼迪将成为第一个第三方总统候选人从1992年开始进行辩论。为了获得资格，候选人必须在符合CNN和ABC新闻各自标准的四项全国民调中获得至少15%的支持，同时在足够多的州获得选票，理论上可以赢得270张选举人票——肯尼迪尚未达到这一门槛。
那么肯尼迪离成功还有多远?在6月辩论之前，我们看了一下他在民调和投票中的地位，看看情况如何，以及他有资格参加最初活动的可能性有多大——即使如果拜登选择退出，这样做可能会导致辩论失败。
两次投票结束，还有两次
在这一点上，肯尼迪看起来已经达到了CNN 6月27日辩论的投票要求的一半。CNN为符合条件的投票设立了一个窗口从3月13日到6月20日，同时还列出了12家民意调查机构和/或媒体机构，它们的调查可以接受资格审查。这些规定还要求合格的民意调查衡量注册选民或潜在选民的意见。
根据自3月中旬以来发布的符合CNN要求的调查，肯尼迪有两项合格的民意调查CNN/SSRS和昆尼皮亚克大学每个调查都发现肯尼迪吸引了16%的注册选民。在测试肯尼迪的其他八个合格民调中，他的支持率低于15%。
肯尼迪已经有两个合格的民意调查，这使得他很有可能在6月20日之前获得四个。首先，他在其他一些资格调查中接近15 %,包括马奎特大学法学院登记选民样本中的14%三月下旬调查和昆尼皮亚克大学的最新民意调查。更广泛地说，肯尼迪在2008年的支持率刚刚超过10%538的全国民调平均值，所以占我们从民意测验中看到的差异，进一步15%的结果是完全合理的。此外，该规则允许来自同一民调机构或赞助商的多次民调计入资格，因此肯尼迪将能够在该支持水平上计算CNN/SSRS和昆尼皮亚克的未来民调。
与此同时，可能只有少数额外的民意调查及时公布，以计入CNN的辩论。看看最近的全国调查，符合CNN标准的民意调查者和赞助商包括大约12个潜在的民意调查者/赞助商组合，这些组合可能会在现在到6月底之间发布民意调查。最常见的是昆尼皮亚克大学，它今天刚刚发布了一项调查，并或多或少地每月进行一次全国民意调查，所以它可能会在辩论前再进行一次调查。其他渠道的民意调查间隔时间往往更长，因此很难说还有多少民意调查可能会及时进行辩论资格审查。当然，对辩论的兴趣也可能推动媒体和民调公司增加调查产出。与第一场辩论有直接联系的CNN/SSRS将有一个明确的联系，促使民意调查者和赞助商在6月底之前进行另一次民意调查。
投票可能会更加复杂
资格规则中较为模糊的部分在于，候选人还必须有足够的选票，理论上才能赢得270张选举人票，这是在选举团中获得多数席位的最低要求。乍一看，这条规则似乎将拜登和特朗普排除在外，因为他们的政党直到CNN辩论结束后才会正式提名他们——共和党大会在7月，民主党大会在8月。然而，CNN似乎已经考虑到拜登和特朗普是他们政党的推定提名人的现实。因此，作为两个主要政党的提名人，人们完全有望在所有50个州和华盛顿特区进行投票，总共有538张选举人票。
另一方面，肯尼迪还有很长的路要走，才能在足够多的州获得选票，达到270张选举人票。价值35张选举人票的五个州向美国广播公司证实，肯尼迪已经投票:特拉华州、夏威夷、密歇根州、俄克拉荷马州和犹他州。肯尼迪的活动声明它在另外10个州投出了价值166张选举人票的选票，包括选票最多的加利福尼亚州和德克萨斯州。总体而言，这将使肯尼迪潜在的总票数达到201张选举人票，如果这些州中的每一个都在6月20日之前确认他有资格参加辩论，则还差69张选举人票，还需要其他州来弥补差额。
从历史上看，高调的第三方或独立竞选者如1992年和1996年的罗斯·佩罗和1980年的约翰·安德松赢得了全部51张选票肯尼迪似乎有可能最终在大多数地方进行投票。但在过去的周期中，有关选票准入的问题通常在大选辩论进行之前就已经得到了答案。2024年首场辩论前所未有地提前举行，令人怀疑肯尼迪能否及时在足够多的州获得选票以获得资格。他的竞选称将提交签名在足够的州获得270张选举人票，但这并不意味着肯尼迪的名字届时将正式出现在这些州的选票上。
毕竟，每个州的选举管理机构确认肯尼迪合格的时间会有所不同。例如，肯尼迪的竞选团队表示，他们在德克萨斯州提交了近246，000个请愿书签名，是2009年的两倍多大约需要113，000人。德克萨斯州州务卿办公室5月13日确认肯尼迪的竞选团队已经提交了签名，但没有给出检查签名有效性所需时间的时间表，因此尚不清楚该州的投票状态程序是否会在辩论前正式确认肯尼迪的状态。此外，肯尼迪声称拥有未经确认的投票地位的其他六个州提交签名的截止日期为7月或8月。也不能保证这些州都能及时将肯尼迪的名字正式列入选票。
在这一点上，考虑佩罗第一次竞选总统的例子中止了他的竞选1992年7月16日(他后来重新参加了竞选十月初).当时的新闻报道发现他有资格在24个州投票价值257张选举人票，略低于270张多数票。这不一定是与肯尼迪的比较接受了既定的投票路线来自小党派加利福尼亚,特拉华河和密歇根在某种程度上佩罗在1992年没有这样做(加州州务卿尚未确认肯尼迪的选票准入权，但美国独立党已在该州提名他)。因此，尽管自1992年以来一些州改变了投票资格的规则和时间表，但佩罗的例子表明，对于一个主要的第三方竞选者来说，尽管在11月之前很容易达到270票，但不一定能在6月底之前在足够多的州获得选票。
***
在接下来的一个月里，肯尼迪可能有资格参加6月27日的辩论。这将是一个创造历史的事件:自1960年总统辩论开始以来，只有两次第三政党候选人登上大选辩论舞台。1992年，佩罗参加了与在任总统老布什和民主党人比尔·克林顿的三场辩论。在1980年，安德森与共和党人罗纳德·里根辩论一旦没有现任总统吉米·卡特的参与，谁拒绝参加因为安德森被邀请了。
现任总统会再次错过2024年的辩论吗?拜登的退出会彻底破坏这场辩论吗?在辩论宣布之前，拜登的竞选团队似乎有这样的印象它只同意与特朗普进行一对一的会谈，这使得拜登有可能在肯尼迪获得资格的情况下决定退出(特朗普说他会开放肯尼迪加入)。一方面，缺席辩论可能会让拜登看起来很糟糕。另一方面，他的竞选团队希望向选民强调，实际上，选举将是一场两匹马的角逐。一个肯尼迪演讲台，无论多么有历史意义，都无法达到这个目的。
Will RFK Jr. qualify for the June presidential debate?
The 2024 election is already positioned to make history — Donald Trump is a convention away from becoming thefirst former president since 1892to win a party’s nomination after leaving office, while his contest against President Joe Biden is thefirst presidential rematch since 1956. And now the debates, too, have broken with the past: Last week, CNN announced that Biden and Trumphad agreed to meet on June 27, which, should it happen,would mark the earliest-ever general election debatein a presidential race. CNN’s event and a Sept. 10 debateannounced by ABC Newsalso circumvent the Commission on Presidential Debates, whichhas managed the processsince 1988. This was something of a rare bipartisan move: The Republican National Committeehad quit the CPD in 2022, Biden’s team wantedno audienceandboth campaigns desired an earlier debatethan theCPD’s 2024 proposal called for.
Having secured their parties’ presumptive nominations for some time now, Biden and Trump are eager to face off and pitch their respective cases to American voters. But the potential for a third candidate to qualify has made a Biden-Trump debate anything but a foregone conclusion. Both CNN and ABC News laid out rules that could open the door for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to participate — a possibility thatseemingly frustratedBiden’s team. Were that to happen, Kennedy would be the first third-party presidential contenderto make a debate since 1992. To qualify, candidates must attract at least 15 percent support in four national polls that meet CNN and ABC News’s respective standards, while also having ballot access in enough states to theoretically win 270 electoral votes — thresholds Kennedy has not yet met.
So how close is Kennedy to making it? We’ve taken a look at his standing in both polls and ballot access ahead of the June debate to see where things stand and just how realistic his chances are of qualifying for the initial event — even if doing so could end up scuttling the debates, should Biden opt out.
Two polls down, two to go
At this point, Kennedy looks to be halfway to meeting the polling requirement for CNN’s June 27 debate.CNN established a window for eligible pollsfrom March 13 through June 20, while also laying out 12 pollsters and/or media outlets whose surveys would be acceptable for the purposes of qualification. The rules also mandate that eligible polls measure views among registered or likely voters.
Based on surveys released since mid-March that meet CNN’s requirements, Kennedy has two qualifying polls to his name: A pair of late April surveys fromCNN/SSRSandQuinnipiac University, each of which found Kennedy attracting 16 percent among registered voters. In eight other eligible polls that tested Kennedy, he fell short of 15 percent.
That Kennedy already has two qualifying polls makes it a very real possibility that he could end up with four by June 20. For one thing, he came very close to 15 percent in some other qualifying surveys, including 14 percent in the registered voter samples of Marquette University Law School’slate March surveyandQuinnipiac’s latest poll. More broadly, Kennedy is polling just above 10 percent in538’s national polling average, so accounting forthe variance we see from poll to poll, further 15 percent results are perfectly plausible. Additionally, the rules allow for multiple polls from the same pollster or sponsor to count toward qualification, so Kennedy would be able to count future polls from CNN/SSRS and Quinnipiac at that level of support.
At the same time, there might only be a handful of additional polls released in time to count for the CNN debate. Looking at recent national surveys, the universe of pollsters and sponsors who meet CNN’s standards includes about a dozen potential pollster/sponsor combinations that might release polls between now and late June. The most regular is Quinnipiac, which just released a survey today and puts out a national poll on a monthly basis, more or less, so it might offer one more survey before the debate. The between-poll timing for other outlets tends to be longer, so it’s hard to say how many more polls might come out in time for debate qualification. Of course, interest in the debate could drive media outlets and polling firms to ramp up their survey output as well. CNN/SSRS, with a direct connection to the first debate, would have a clear tie-in motivating the pollster and sponsor to put another poll in the field before late June.
Ballot access could be more complicated
The murkier part of the qualification rules lies in the requirement that candidates must also be on enough ballots to theoretically win 270 electoral votes, the minimum necessary to capture a majority in the Electoral College. At first blush, this rule would seemingly exclude Biden and Trump, because their parties won’t formally nominate them until after the CNN debate — the GOP convention is in July, the Democratic confab in August. However, CNN appears to have made allowances for the reality that Biden and Trump are their parties’ presumptive nominees. As a result, there’s every expectation that both, as the two major-party nominees, will be on the ballot in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., totaling all 538 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Kennedy, on the other hand, has a long way to go to secure ballot status in enough states to reach 270 electoral votes. Five states worth 35 electoral votes have confirmed to ABC News that Kennedy has made their ballots: Delaware, Hawaii, Michigan, Oklahoma and Utah. Kennedy’scampaign claimsthat it has made the ballot in 10 other states worth 166 electoral votes, including the most vote-rich states of California and Texas. Overall, this would bring Kennedy to a potential total of 201 electoral votes, 69 electoral votes short of debate qualification if each of those states confirms that he has qualified by June 20, with additional states needed to make up the difference.
Historically, high-profile third-party or independent contenders like Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 and John Anderson in 1980 made all 51 ballots, andKennedy seems likelyto eventually make the ballot in most places. But in past cycles, questions about ballot access usually had been answered by the time the general election debates rolled around. The unprecedented early date for the first 2024 debate casts doubt on whether Kennedy can attain ballot access in enough states in time to qualify. His campaignsays it will have submitted signaturesin enough states for 270 electoral votes, but that doesn't mean Kennedy's name will officially be on the ballot in each of those states by then.
After all, the timing for each state’s electoral administration to confirm that Kennedy has qualified will vary. For instance, Kennedy’s campaign said it submitted nearly 246,000 petition signatures in Texas, more than twice as many asthe roughly 113,000 required. The Texas secretary of state’s officeconfirmed on May 13that Kennedy’s campaign had turned in its signatures, but it did not give a timeline for how long it would take to check their validity, so it’s unclear whether the state’s ballot status process will make Kennedy’s status official in time for the debate. Furthermore, six other states where Kennedy has claimed-but-unconfirmed ballot status have deadlines in July or August for submitting signatures. There’s no guarantee that each of these states will have formally placed Kennedy’s name on the ballot in time, either.
To this point, consider the example of Perot’s first presidential bid around the time hesuspended his campaignon July 16, 1992 (he later jumped back into the racein early October). News reports at the time found that he hadqualified for the ballot in 24 statesworth 257 electoral votes, slightly less than the 270-majority mark. This is not necessarily an apples-to-apples comparison with Kennedy, whohas accepted already-established ballot linesfrom minor parties inCalifornia,DelawareandMichiganin a wayPerot did not in 1992(California’s secretary of state hasn’t confirmed Kennedy’s ballot access yet, but the American Independent Party has nominated him there). So while some states have changed their rules and timelines for ballot qualification since 1992, the Perot example demonstrates how realistic it would be for a major third-party contender to not necessarily have ballot access in enough states to meet the 270 mark by late June, despite easily getting there by November.
***
Over the next month, Kennedy could qualify for the June 27 debate. That would be a history-making event: Only twice since the dawn of presidential debates in 1960 has a third-party candidate made a general election debate stage. In 1992, Perot participated in all three debates against incumbent President George H.W. Bush and Democrat Bill Clinton. In 1980,Anderson debated Republican Ronald Reaganonce without the participation of incumbent President Jimmy Carter,who refused to take partbecause Anderson had been invited.
Could an incumbent once again skip out on a debate in 2024? And would a withdrawal by Biden scuttle the debate altogether? Ahead of the debate announcement, Biden’s campaignseemed under the impressionthat it had only agreed to a one-on-one with Trump, making it possible that Biden could decide to withdraw should Kennedy qualify (Trumphas said he’d be opento Kennedy joining in). On the one hand, skipping out on a debate could make Biden look bad. On the other hand, his campaign wants to emphasize to voters that the election is, realistically, going to be a two-horse race. A Kennedy lectern, no matter how historical, would defeat that purpose.
