美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查发现，几乎同样多的49%的人认为他应该结束2024年的总统竞选。
然而，在本周结束的历史性刑事审判之后首次定罪根据美国广播公司新闻/益普索利用益普索知识面板进行的最新民意调查，前总统特朗普的支持率稳定在31%。特朗普是被判有罪周四，他的审判中有34项指控涉及伪造商业记录，这些记录涉及在2016年大选前向成人电影女演员斯托米·丹尼尔斯支付款项，以使她对他们所谓的婚外情保持沉默。
这位前总统发誓要上诉，上周五表示，“坏人”对他提起了诉讼和指控。
47%的美国人表示，他们认为本案中对特朗普的指控是出于政治动机，而38%的人表示不是。同时，51%的微弱多数认为特朗普在这种情况下故意做了一些非法的事情。12%的人认为特朗普做了错事，但不是故意的，19%的人认为他没有做错任何事。
认为特朗普应该因这一判决而结束总统竞选的美国人比例为49%，这与2023年4月美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查的结果相似，该调查是在曼哈顿大陪审团宣布对他的起诉后不久进行的。在2023年4月的民意调查中，48%的人认为他应该因为起诉而暂停竞选。
根据新的ABC新闻/益普索民意调查，拜登的支持率也保持在低水平，没有变化。他的支持率目前为32%，而2024年3月美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查的支持率为33%。公众对特朗普有罪判决的反应有党派之分。例如，83%的民主党人认为判决是正确的，79%的人认为他应该因此结束竞选，而只有16%的共和党人认为判决是正确的，同样比例的人认为他应该结束总统竞选。
由于拜登和特朗普都被广泛认为不受欢迎，选举可能会归结为独立选民，或者更具体地说，那些不喜欢两位候选人的人——有时被称为双重仇恨者。
大多数独立人士认为特朗普的判决是正确的，52%的人认为他应该结束候选人资格。对于双重仇恨者来说，这些反应甚至更明显——65%对特朗普和拜登都持负面看法的美国人认为本周的判决是正确的，67%的人认为特朗普应该结束总统竞选。
45%的无党派人士和51%的双重仇恨者认为封口费审判是出于政治动机，相比之下，83%的共和党人和20%的民主党人认为如此。
在纽约的审判中，特朗普的攻击主要针对地区检察官、法官和陪审团——他声称所有这些都是对他不公平的政治偏见。特朗普也在拜登总统之后，在没有证据的情况下声称他是起诉的幕后黑手。
特朗普说:“如果他们能对我这样做，他们就能对任何人这样做。”说在曼哈顿特朗普大厦的新闻发布会上。“这些都是坏人。我相信，在很多情况下，这些人都是病人。”拜登在周五晚些时候的讲话中表示，被推回法治得到了“重申”，质疑选举过程合法性的言论是“危险的”。
方法学
这项ABC新闻/益普索民意调查是在2024年5月31日至6月1日使用基于概率的益普索知识小组以英语和西班牙语在781名美国成年人的随机全国样本中进行的。对于全部样本，包括设计效果在内，结果的采样误差为3.7个点。抽样误差并不是民调差异的唯一来源。党派分歧为31-29-32%，民主党-共和党-无党派。查看投票的最高结果和方法的详细信息这里.
Half of Americans think Trump's guilty verdict was correct, should end campaign: POLL
A plurality of Americans, 50%, think former President Donald Trump's guilty verdict on all 34 counts in his hush money trial was correct, a new ABC News/Ipsospoll finds, and almost as many, 49%, think he should end his 2024 presidential campaign over the result.
Still, following the historic criminal trial that ended this week in afirst-ever conviction of a former president, Trump's favorability has remained stable at 31%, according to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos' KnowledgePanel. Trump wasfound guiltyof 34 counts on Thursday in his trial related to falsifying business records regarding a payment made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election in order to keep her quiet about their alleged affair.
The former president has vowed to appeal, saying on Friday that "bad people" had levied the case – and charges– against him.
Forty-seven percent of Americans said they think the charges against Trump in this case were politically motivated, while 38% say they were not. At the same time, the slight majority at 51%, think Trump intentionally did something illegal in this case. Twelve percent think Trump did something wrong but not intentionally, and 19% believe he did not do anything wrong.
The proportion of Americans who say Trump should end his presidential campaign as a result of this verdict is 49%, which is similar to findings from an April 2023 ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted shortly after the Manhattan grand jury handed down the indictment against him in this case. In the April 2023 polls, 48% thought he should suspend his campaign because of the indictment.
Biden's favorability rating also remains low and unchanged, according to the new ABC News/Ipsos poll. His favorability rating currently stands at 32% compared to 33% in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted in March 2024. Public reaction to Trump's guilty verdict falls along partisan lines. For example, 83% of Democrats think the verdict was correct and 79% think he should end his campaign as a result, while only 16% of Republicans say the verdict was correct and the same percentage say he should end his presidential bid.
Because both Biden and Trump are broadly viewed unfavorably, the election could come down to independent voters, or even more specifically, those who dislike both candidates – sometimes referred to as double-haters.
A majority of Independents think Trump's verdict was correct, 52%, and the same amount believe that he should end his candidacy. For double-haters, those reactions are even more pronounced -- 65% of Americans who view both Trump and Biden unfavorably think the verdict this week was correct, with 67% believing Trump should end his presidential campaign.
Forty-five percent of Independents and 51% of double-haters think the hush-money trial was politically motivated, compared to 83% of Republicans and 20% of Democrats.
In the New York trial, Trump's attacks are largely directed at the district attorney, the judge and the jury -- all of which he's claimed are unfairly politically biased against him. Trump has also come after President Biden, claiming without evidence, that he was behind the prosecution.
"If they can do this to me, they can do this to anyone," Trumpsaidduring a press conference at Trump Tower in Manhattan. "These are bad people. These are, in many cases, I believe, sick people." Biden, in his own remarks later on Friday,pushed back that the rule of law was "reaffirmed" and statements questioning the legitimacy of the process were "dangerous."
METHODOLOGY
This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted using the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® May 31-June 1, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 781 U.S. adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.7 points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls. Partisan divisions are 31-29-32 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. See the poll's topline results and details on the methodologyhere.
Half of Americans think Trump's guilty verdict was correct, should end campaign: POLL
