周二是四个州的初选日，一如既往，538正在密切关注当天的关键竞争比赛。我们关注的10场选举每一场都是共和党初选，但它们分为两类。在南卡罗来纳州和北达科他州，美国众议院和州长的五场竞选几乎肯定会在坚实的红色地盘上决定11月的最终获胜者。相比之下，缅因州和内华达州有五个共和党人在美国参议院和众议院进行初选，这些席位目前由民主党人占据，共和党希望在今年秋天翻转。
你可以在这里了解所有这些比赛，你可以在周二晚上收听我们的直播博客，随时关注比赛情况，我们将跟踪这10场初选的来龙去脉以及随着选票的到来而出现在我们雷达上的任何其他事情。
南卡罗来纳州
值得关注的比赛:第一、第三和第四国会选区
投票结束:东部时间晚上7点
最受关注的南卡罗来纳州比赛在第一区第二任共和党众议员南希·梅斯为她辩护基于低国家的面对前州内阁官员凯瑟琳·邓普顿的主要挑战。权杖引发愤怒去年秋天，在她与其他七名共和党众议员加入共和党后，共和党中的一些人支持搬迁的动议驱逐了当时的议长凯文·麦卡锡。她的支持出人意料，因为麦卡锡在2020年支持她当她第一次跑来这里时，但这个举动适合她特殊的跟踪记录作为老派共和党建制派的昔日盟友，她已经演变为反建制派、特朗普思想的保守派，至少在她的言论中是如此。这种转变也可能反映了自我保护的政治调整重划选区后让她曾经的竞争席位更红了在2022年大选之前。
但这一策略可能有其缺陷:在邓普顿，梅斯有一个与建制派结盟的对手谁以前服务过在时任州长妮基·黑利的内阁中发起失败的州长竞选2018年。虽然梅斯大大超越了邓普顿230万美元到$663,000截至5月22日，邓普顿已经获得了足够的外部支持。团体已经花了530万美元支持邓普顿或攻击梅斯，根据OpenSecrets，相比之下有260万美元支持梅斯或批评邓普顿。值得注意的是，一些支持邓普顿的资金可能来自麦卡锡和梅斯的盟友谴责了邓普顿作为麦卡锡的“傀儡”这麦卡锡联盟美国繁荣联盟正在运行广告反对梅斯，由查尔斯顿邮报和信使报发现全新的南卡罗来纳州爱国者政治行动委员会已经花费了380万美元提升坦普尔顿—收到一小笔钱美国心理学会的。SCP已经运行了广告认为梅斯在边境安全方面很薄弱，而邓普顿已经打了她保守的企业和移民诚意.
然而，梅斯可能有终极王牌:前总统唐纳德·特朗普支持她，一个发展权杖和她的盟友，如增长行动俱乐部，都强调了在竞选广告中。这反映了现任者立场的转变，尤其是考虑到特朗普支持梅斯在2022年的主要挑战者谁梅斯险胜。尽管如此，特朗普的支持可能并非绝对积极:第一选区是海莉对抗特鲁姆普的唯一武器在南卡罗来纳州二月份的总统初选中。
有限公众投票表明梅斯很可能活不下来。五月初的调查通过卡普兰策略发现梅斯以43%对21%领先邓普顿，而五月下旬的民意调查显示爱默生学院/国会山梅斯以47%比22%领先。但是这场比赛有一点点可能会继续参加6月25日的决选，作为第三位共和党候选人可以赢得足够的选票来阻止梅斯或邓普顿赢得多数席位。
穿着纯红衣服第四区在格林维尔周围，第三任众议员威廉·蒂蒙斯(William Timmons)是另一位正在应对高调初选挑战者的共和党现任议员。虽然蒂蒙斯是一个可靠的保守派，州众议员亚当·摩根可以成功地运行甚至进一步蒂蒙斯的权利，看到他主持州议会的自由核心小组——仿照国会核心小组，其成员鼓励了摩根的出价谁的竞选团队支持他。此外，蒂蒙斯似乎仍然困扰着被一个危及的丑闻他两年前竞选连任:2022年，在蒂蒙斯对妻子不忠的指控中，他仅以53%的得票率再次获得提名尽管他的选区在重新划分选区时几乎没有变化。
蒂蒙斯感受到压力的一个迹象是，他在共和党初选中做了一些不同寻常的事情:他攻击他的对手因为在堕胎权利上过于极端，刊登广告批评摩根投票“监禁强奸和乱伦受害者”寻求堕胎——投票摩根为自己辩护“试图堵住一个漏洞。”蒂蒙斯的策略可能是试图在南卡罗来纳州开放的初选系统中吸引民主党和独立的选票，即使现任支持为期15周的联邦堕胎禁令.
蒂蒙斯为他工作仍有一些显著的优势。他的级别超过了摩根190万美元到$578,000为他的竞选活动提供了90万美元的贷款(摩根也自筹了将近一半的竞选资金)。主要是外部团体前加密货币捍卫美国就业超级政治行动委员会，花费了190万美元相比之下，支持摩根大通的外部支出仅为31.9万美元。在这里，特朗普也支持现任蒂蒙斯和他的盟友在竞选广告中大肆渲染。尽管如此，摩根还是强调了他对共和党的忠诚，推销自己作为一个基督徒和“保守斗士”在他的广告中。我们在这里没有看到公众投票，所以很难知道这场比赛到底有多接近。
坚定的共和党人第三区隔壁的特色是共和党众议员杰夫·邓肯退休后的开放席位竞选也面临婚姻不忠的指控。在共和党初选中，接替邓肯的最著名的竞争者似乎是牧师马克·伯恩斯、空军国民警卫队中校谢里·比格斯和州众议员斯图尔特·琼斯，但很难确定谁最受欢迎，也很难区分他们，因为所有三位候选人都有立案了他们是最保守的,特朗普式的选择。在筹款方面，比格斯筹集了52.8万美元截至5月22日，伯恩斯赚了51.6万美元，两者都主要通过自筹资金。与此同时，琼斯，筹集了21.7万美元自2019年以来，在州议会中代表了这一地区的一部分。
有类似的减少外界的干预，由突出显示参议员兰德·保罗-关联保护自由政治行动委员会67万美元的支出帮助琼斯和选举有原则的退伍军人基金314000美元支持比格斯。但是伯恩斯是谁获得了特朗普的关键支持。伯恩斯的政治概况作为一个支持特朗普的黑人电视布道者近年来有所增长，包括在第四区的2022年初选中获得第二名。但他也引起了争议，包括在2016年当他转发一张假照片时希拉里·克林顿在《黑脸》中的形象，2022年他要求处决和逮捕那些支持保护变性儿童的人。对她来说，比格斯得到了支持共和党州长亨利·麦克马斯特，而琼斯获得关注为解除新冠肺炎大流行相关限制所做的努力。决选似乎是一种真正的可能性:唯一的可能性公众投票是五月中旬的一项调查作者Cygnal该基金会发现三名候选人的支持率都在10%左右。
缅因州
值得关注的比赛:第二国会选区
投票结束:东部时间晚上8点
缅因州的第二区是GOP主服务器的主机，其中两名第一任州代表奥斯汀·瑟里奥尔特和迈克·索博尔斯基正在争夺与连任三届的民主党众议员贾里德·戈尔登较量的权利。现任总统成功保住了这个席位，该席位占据了缅因州南部沿海地区以北的大部分地区，尽管该席位略微倾向于共和党:特朗普在2020年将获得51%至45%的选票。根据科索沃每日选举这使其成为民主党现任议员在2024年捍卫的第二个最倾向于共和党的席位(按总统选票计算)，仅次于众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉在阿拉斯加的网络普通用户席位。
瑟里奥特山前纳斯卡车手，看起来很受宠。他有特朗普的支持，哪个他在广告中自然受到了强调他是国会共和党人的首选，赢得了议长迈克·约翰逊和国会领导基金，参与支持共和党众议院候选人的主要超级政治行动委员会。此外，特里奥特已经筹集了120万美元到索博尔斯基的11.7万美元。这只是最近的民意调查4月初，民意策略公司代表瑟里奥特的竞选团队进行的一项调查显示，他以30%对7%的支持率领先索博莱斯基。不过，虽然特里奥特得到了特朗普的支持，但索博尔斯基与这位前总统站在了一起——而且大约三分之二全国共和党人—关于2020年大选的合法性问题。与特里奥特不同的是，索博尔斯基附和了特朗普的观点无证据的索赔拜登没有合法获胜。
北达科他州
值得关注的比赛:网络普通用户国会选区;管理者
投票结束:该州大部分地区通常是东部时间晚上8点，西南部各县通常是东部时间晚上9点
北达科他州州长道格·伯根的退休促成了一场昂贵且日益丑陋的共和党初选管理者众议员凯利·阿姆斯特朗和副州长塔米·米勒。阿姆斯特朗自2019年以来一直在国会任职，选民对他更熟悉，而伯根任命米勒为新任副州长2022年12月(在前任官员辞职了回到私营部门)。两位候选人都抛出了自己的大笔资金:根据截至5月2日的财务报告和截至6月7日的大额捐款报告，其中约380万美元米勒报告筹集了420万美元是她自己掏腰包的，而阿姆斯特朗则自筹了近130万美元他收集了340万美元.
阿姆斯特朗是领跑者，获得了众多支持来自特朗普和州共和党。他在以下方面也处于明显领先地位三项不同的调查所有这些调查都显示他获得了近60%的支持率，而米勒只吸引了约20%的支持率。希望取得进展，米勒已尝试链接特朗普和伯根，谁支持她。她还刊登了反对阿姆斯特朗的负面广告，包括一个罗伯·波特·艾福姆称这是他在北达科他州见过的指控阿姆斯特朗的“最残忍”的指控内幕交易当他还是律师的时候为一个猥亵儿童的人辩护。阿姆斯特朗的竞选称内幕交易指控是谎言，以及性骚扰案件中的受害者呼吁米勒停止发布相关广告。阿姆斯特朗也不是没有自己的广告争议，因为他的竞选活动跑了一个点对抗米勒其中包括一张传票来自一个人工智能新闻网站，这促使米勒批评阿姆斯特朗因为她发布了关于她记录的“假新闻”。
阿姆斯特朗的州长竞选已经离开了该州网络普通用户国会选区共和党初选的两个主要竞争者看起来是公共服务专员朱莉·费多查克和前州众议员里克·贝克尔。费多查克有着良好的选举记录赢得了三次全州比赛保留她目前的职位，和她赢得了特朗普的支持五月下旬。同时，贝克有着复杂的关系与共和党:在立法任期内，贝克尔成立了一个极右翼党团，并在2022年以独立身份竞选参议员，对抗共和党参议员约翰·霍文。那次竞选使贝克尔没有资格获得州共和党支持投票但他的支持者破坏了他们的选票，将支持权给了一名未成年候选人，而不是费多查克。
与此同时，贝克尔和他的盟友在金钱竞赛中大多与费多查克并驾齐驱。费多尔查克已经赚了97.9万美元，与相比贝克尔的91.1万美元虽然贝克尔自己出资了55万美元。然而外部群体花费稍多宣传贝克尔或攻击费多查克(150万美元)，而不是支持费多查克或反对贝克尔(130万美元)。两位候选人强调了他们支持特朗普的观点以及保卫边境的计划。两项调查显示双方势均力敌，也是:5月初的一项民意调查显示DFM研究/北达科他州联合公司贝克尔以29%对26%的支持率领先WPA情报/北达科他州新闻合作社发现费多查克以32%对25%领先。然而，这两项民调都是在特朗普支持之前进行的，这可能表明费多查克在支持贝克尔的增长俱乐部中占了上风取消了计划中的广告购买竞选的最后一周。
内华达州
值得关注的比赛:美国参议院;第一、第三和第四国会选区
投票结束:东部时间晚上10点
内华达州将成为参议院争取连任的民主党参议员杰基·罗森(Jacky Rosen)将在今年秋天竞选该席位。美国退役陆军上尉萨姆·布朗在共和党初选中领先，站稳脚跟后经过第二名内华达州2022年参议员竞选的共和党提名。布朗的候选资格是他的服役记录突出了这一点在此期间，他因2008年阿富汗路边炸弹爆炸而遭受三度烧伤。布朗被证明是一个惊人的筹款人，赚了710万美元截至5月22日。曾在川普手下任职的前驻冰岛大使杰弗里·鲁斯·冈特是布朗的主要竞争对手，他自筹270万美元竞选经费他筹集的330万美元.
全国共和党人在很大程度上支持布朗，包括全国共和党参议院委员会。布朗和NRSC推出了联合广告专注于移民和国家安全，还有罗森的竞选活动已经在运行spots反对他的主要集中在堕胎权利上。特朗普已经值得注意的是在这次竞选中没有得到支持，虽然周日他称赞布朗，似乎承认对冈特来说，他的领跑者地位将自己与特朗普联系在一起，以及已投放广告声称布朗支持这项有争议但被搁置的计划储存核废料在尤卡山。褐色的表示支持在他2022年的竞选中，但是面对批评退缩了这一次。
目前还不清楚冈特对布朗的威胁有多大高尚的预测洞察力发现布朗以53%对15%领先，与五月中旬进行的调查结果相似塔兰斯集团布朗的竞选团队和NRSC。但是冈特在5月底发布了一项调查通过卡普兰策略这发现他与布朗在30%左右的支持率持平。外部团体强烈支持布朗高达420万美元，还有冈特已经足够危险了支持布朗的第一内华达州超级政治行动委员会正在运行广告把冈特描绘成一个伪共和党人。尽管如此，冈特的竞选团队实际上取消了一些广告购买领先于初选——这可不是自信的信号。
内华达的第三区连任三届的民主党众议员苏西·李在拉斯维加斯拥有一个浅蓝色席位举办该州竞争最激烈的众议院比赛。两位最著名的共和党竞选人可能是电子游戏音乐作曲家马蒂·安东内尔和前州财政部长丹·施瓦茨，尽管政策分析师和倡导者德鲁·约翰逊和前州参议员伊丽莎白·赫尔格利恩也在候选人之列。安东内尔共和党州长乔·伦巴多的支持，以及他筹集了54.1万美元截至5月22日(自掏腰包50万美元)。这还不到92.2万美元施瓦茨筹集了90万美元的自筹资金。但是在5月24日，安东内尔献出了自己另外70万美元，这意味着他很可能超过了施瓦茨的总额。同时，约翰逊筹集了43.2万美元(自筹30万美元)和海尔格连已经筹集了28.2万美元.
有趣的是，安东内尔说过他不会收钱的从公司政治行动委员会，一行我们更常听到民主党人的声音。这可能有助于解释为什么约翰逊打电话给安东内尔一个“西雅图自由主义者”同时，施瓦茨投了自己作为将“抽干沼泽”的候选人，但他在财务主管后的选举记录并不鼓舞人心:他在共和党州长初选中失利2018年，美国众议院2020年副州长2022年。赫尔格连2012年离开州议会但她确实得到了特朗普追随者的支持，比如罗杰·斯通和极右翼共和党人亚利桑那州众议员保罗·戈萨尔和佛罗里达州众议员安娜·保利娜·卢娜。
在隔壁，民主党众议员史蒂文·霍斯福德将为倾向于蓝色的人辩护第四区共和党的两位主要竞争者是退役空军中校大卫·弗里波和前北拉斯维加斯市长约翰·李。Flippo筹集了92.7万美元到李的85.1万美元两位候选人都自筹了一半以上的资金，但由于得到了支持，李明博可能会在这方面占上风来自特朗普和伦巴多。然而，李是前民主党人谁换党了在…之前竞选共和党提名失败这可能会削弱他在初选选民中的吸引力。
最后，在第一区这是民主党众议员迪娜·泰特斯在拉斯维加斯及其周边地区占据的另一个浅蓝色席位。在…里2022年大选提图斯以近6个百分点的优势击败了陆军老兵马克·罗伯逊，但罗伯逊又回来了。然而，他只筹到了10.6万美元这一数字与共和党的竞争对手餐馆老板弗莱明·拉森相比相形见绌带来了180万美元的巨额收入多亏了150万美元的自筹资金。不清楚最近的一份报告内华达独立报拉森在他的南加州餐厅雇用无证移民的消息披露将显著影响竞选。
10 primaries to watch in South Carolina, North Dakota, Maine and Nevada
Tuesday is primary day in four states, and as always, 538 is keeping a close eye on the day's key competitive races. Every single one of our 10 elections to watch is a Republican primary, but they're split into two categories. In South Carolina and North Dakota, five contests for the U.S. House of Representatives and governor are all-but-guaranteed to decide the eventual November winner on solidly red turf. By comparison, Maine and Nevada have an array of five Republican primaries for the U.S. Senate and House in competitive seats currently held by Democrats that the GOP hopes to flip this fall.
You can get caught up on all these races here, and you can tune in to our liveblog Tuesday evening to follow the action as it happens, where we'll be tracking the ins and outs of these 10 primaries and anything else that pops up on our radar as the votes come in.
South Carolina
Races to watch:1st, 3rd and 4th congressional districts
Polls close:7 p.m. Eastern
The most-watched South Carolina race is in the1st District, where second-term Republican Rep. Nancy Mace is defending herLowcountry-basedseat against a primary challenge from former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton. Macesparked angeramong some in the GOP last fall after she joined with seven other Republican House membersto back the motion to vacatethat ousted then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Her support came as a surprise because McCarthyhad backed her in 2020when she first ran here, but the move fit into heridiosyncratic track recordas a onetime-ally of the old school GOP establishment who has evolved into an anti-establishment, Trump-minded conservative, at least in her rhetoric. That shift may alsoreflect a self-preserving political recalibrationafter redistrictingmade her once-competitive seat redderahead of the 2022 election.
But the strategy could have its pitfalls: In Templeton, Mace has an establishment-aligned opponentwho previously servedin then-Gov. Nikki Haley's cabinet beforemounting a failed gubernatorial bidin 2018. And while Mace has substantially outraised Templeton —$2.3 millionto$663,000as of May 22 — Templeton has received ample outside support. Groups have spent $5.3 million backing Templeton or attacking Mace,according to OpenSecrets, compared with $2.6 million supporting Mace or criticizing Templeton. Notably, some pro-Templeton money may have come from sources allied to McCarthy, and Macehas denounced Templetonas McCarthy's "puppet." TheMcCarthy-alignedAmerican Prosperity Allianceis running adsagainst Mace, and reporting bythe Charleston Post and Courierfound that the brand-new South Carolina Patriots PAC — which has spent $3.8 millionto boost Templeton—received a small amount of moneyfrom the APA. SCP has run adsthat argue Mace is weak on border security, while Templeton has played up herconservative businessandimmigration bona fides.
However, Mace may have the ultimate, er, trump card: Former President Donald Trumphas endorsed her, a development Mace and her allies, such asClub for Growth Action, have emphasizedin campaign ads. This reflects the incumbent's shifting positions, especially consideringTrump endorsed Mace's primary challenger in 2022, whomMace narrowly defeated. Still, Trump's support may not be an unalloyed positive: The 1st District isthe only one Haley carried versus Trumpin South Carolina's February presidential primary.
Limited public pollingsuggests Mace is more likely than not to survive. An early May surveyby Kaplan Strategiesfound Mace leading Templeton 43 percent to 21 percent, while a late May poll fromEmerson College/The Hillput Mace ahead 47 percent to 22 percent. But there's a small chance that this race could goto a June 25 runoff, asa third Republican candidatecould win enough votes to keep Mace or Templeton from winning a majority.
In the solidly red4th Districtaround Greenville, third-term Rep. William Timmons is another Republican incumbent dealing with a high-profile primary challenger. Though Timmons is areliable conservative, state Rep. Adam Morgan could successfully run even further to Timmons's right, seeing ashe chairsthe state House's Freedom Caucus — modeled after the congressional caucus, whose membershipencouraged Morgan's bidand whose campaign armhas endorsed him. Moreover, Timmonsstill seems to be plaguedby ascandal that jeopardizedhis reelection bid two years ago: In 2022, amid allegations that Timmons was unfaithful to his wife,he only won renomination with 53 percentagainst weak primary opposition despite the fact his district barely changed in redistricting.
One sign that Timmons is feeling the heat is that he's done something unusual in a GOP primary: He'sattacked his opponentfor being too extreme on abortion rights, running an ad criticizing Morgan for voting "to jail rape and incest victims" who sought abortions — a voteMorgan has defendedas "an attempt to close a loophole." Timmons's maneuver could be an attempt to draw Democratic and independent votes in South Carolina's open primary system, even though the incumbentsupports a 15-week federal abortion ban.
Timmons still has some notable advantages working for him. He's outraised Morgan$1.9 millionto$578,000, helped out by a $900,000 loan to his campaign (Morgan has self-funded nearly half his campaign, too). Outside groups, mainlythe pro-cryptocurrencyDefend American Jobs super PAC,have spent $1.9 millionto boost Timmons, compared with just $319,000 in outside spending supporting Morgan. And here, too, Trump has endorsed the incumbent, whichTimmonsandhis allieshave played up in campaign ads. Still, Morgan has emphasized his Republican bona fides,pitching himselfas a Christian and "conservative fighter" in his ads. We've seen no public polling here, so it's hard to know how close this race truly is.
The strongly Republican3rd Districtnext door features an open-seat race following the retirement of Republican Rep. Jeff Duncan, whoalso faced accusations of marital infidelity. In the GOP primary to succeed Duncan, the most notable contenders appear to be pastor Mark Burns, Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs and state Rep. Stewart Jones, but it's difficult to identify a favorite — or differentiate between them, as all three candidates havemade the casethat they'rethe most conservative,Trump-minded choice. On the fundraising front, Biggshad raised $528,000as of May 22, while Burnshad brought in $516,000, both largely through self-funding. Jones, meanwhile,had raised $217,000with less self-funding, having represented a part of this region in the state legislature since 2019.
There's been comparablyless outside intervention here, highlighted by theSen. Rand Paul-associatedProtect Freedom PAC's$670,000 outlayto help Jones andElect Principled Veterans Fund's$314,000 to support Biggs. But it's Burns whohas garnered Trump's critical endorsement. Burns'spolitical profileas a pro-Trump Black televangelisthas grown in recent years, including a second-place finish in the 4th District's 2022 primary. But he's attracted controversy, too, including in 2016when he retweeted a fake photoof Hillary Clinton in blackface, and in 2022 whenhe called for the execution and arrestof those who support protecting transgender children. For her part, Biggshas the supportof Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, while Jonesgained noticefor his efforts to dismantle COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions. A runoff seems like a real possibility: The onlypublic pollwas a mid-May surveyby Cygnalon behalf of the pro-Biggs Elect Principled Veterans Fund, which found all three contenders hovering around 10 percent.
Maine
Races to watch:2nd Congressional District
Polls close:8 p.m. Eastern
Maine's2nd Districtis host to a GOP primary in whichtwo first-term state representatives, Austin Theriault and Mike Soboleski, are contending for the right to take on three-term Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. The incumbent has managed to hold onto this seat, which takes in most of Maine north of its southern coastal area, despite its slight Republican lean: Trump would have carried it 51 percent to 45 percent in 2020,according to Daily Kos Elections, making it the second-most Republican-leaning seat (by presidential vote) that a Democratic incumbent is defending in 2024, trailing only Rep. Mary Peltola's at-large seat in Alaska.
Theriault, aformer NASCAR driver, looks to be favored. He hasTrump's endorsement, whichhe's naturally emphasized in his ads, and he's congressional Republicans' top choice, having earned the backing ofSpeaker Mike Johnsonandthe Congressional Leadership Fund, the principal super PAC involved in supporting Republican House candidates. Moreover, Theriaulthas raised $1.2 milliontoSoboleski's $117,000. Theonly somewhat recent pollwas an early April survey from Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of Theriault's campaign that found him leading Soboleski 30 percent to 7 percent. But while Theriault has Trump's backing, Soboleski aligns with the former president — andaround two-thirdsof Republicans nationally —on the question of the 2020 election's legitimacy.Unlike Theriault, Soboleski has echoed Trump'sunsupported claimthat Biden didn't legitimately win.
North Dakota
Races to watch:At-Large Congressional District; governor
Polls close:Generally 8 p.m. Eastern in most of the state, 9 p.m. Eastern in southwestern counties
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum's retirementhas precipitated an expensive and increasingly ugly Republican primary forgovernorbetween Rep. Kelly Armstrong and Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller. Armstrong is more familiar to voters, having served in Congress since 2019, while Burgumtapped Miller as his new lieutenant governorin December 2022 (after theprevious officeholder resignedto return to the private sector). Both candidates have thrown around large sums of their own money: Based on financial reports though May 2 and large donations reported through June 7, about $3.8 million of the$4.2 million Miller has reported raisinghas come out of her own pocket, while Armstrong has self-funded almost $1.3 million of the$3.4 million he's collected.
Armstrong is the front-runner, having garnered endorsementsfrom Trumpandthe state GOP. He also held a clear lead inthree different surveysconducted in May, all of which showed him receiving close to 60 percent while Miller only attracted around 20 percent. Looking to gain ground, Millerhas tried to linkherself to Trump and Burgum,who's endorsed her. She's also run negative ads against Armstrong,including onethat Rob Port of InForum described as "the most brutal" he'd seen in North Dakota that accuses Armstrongof insider tradingand defending a child molester when he was a lawyer. Armstrong's campaigncalled the insider trading claim a lie, and the victims in the molestation casecalled for Miller to stop running ads about it. And Armstrong isn't without his own ad controversy, as his campaignran a spotagainst Millerthat included a citationfrom an artificial intelligence news website, which prompted Miller tocriticize Armstrongfor running "fake news" about her record.
Armstrong's gubernatorial bid has left the state'sAt-Large Congressional Districtup for grabs, and the two main contenders in the Republican primary look to be Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak and former state Rep. Rick Becker. Fedorchak has a solid electoral record, havingwon three statewide racesto retain her current office, andshe earned Trump's endorsementin late May. Meanwhile, Beckerhas a complicated relationshipwith the GOP: During his legislative tenure, Becker founded a far-right caucus, and in 2022, he actually ran for Senate as an independent against Republican Sen. John Hoeven. That campaign left Becker ineligible for thestate GOP endorsement votein April, but his supporters spoiled their ballots to give the endorsement to a minor candidate instead of Fedorchak.
Meanwhile, Becker and his allies have mostly kept up with Fedorchak in the money race. Fedorchakhas brought in $979,000, compared withBecker's $911,000, although Becker self-funded $550,000 of his haul. Yet outside groupshave spent slightly morepromoting Becker or attacking Fedorchak ($1.5 million) than on supporting Fedorchak or opposing Becker ($1.3 million).Both candidateshave emphasizedtheir pro-Trump viewsand plans to secure the border.Two surveys have shown a close race, too: An early May poll fromDFM Research/North Dakota Unitedput Becker ahead 29 percent to 26 percent, while a late May survey fromWPA Intelligence/North Dakota News Cooperativefound Fedorchak leading 32 percent to 25 percent. However, both polls predated Trump's endorsement, and, in a possible signal that Fedorchak has the upper hand, the pro-Becker Club for Growthcanceled a planned ad buyfor the final week of the campaign.
Nevada
Races to watch:U.S. Senate; 1st, 3rd and 4th congressional districts
Polls close:10 p.m. Eastern
Nevada will hold a pivotalSenatecontest this fall for the seat held by Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, who is seeking a second term. Retired U.S. Army Capt. Sam Brown is the front-runner in the Republican primary,having established himselfbyfinishing secondfor the GOP nomination in Nevada's 2022 Senate race. Brown's candidacy ishighlighted by his military service record, during which time he suffered third-degree burns from a 2008 roadside bomb explosion in Afghanistan. Brown has proved a prodigious fundraiser,having brought in $7.1 millionas of May 22. Former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffrey Ross Gunter, who served under Trump, is Brown's main competition, and he's self-funded $2.7 million ofthe $3.3 million he's raised.
National Republicans have largely consolidated behind Brown, including the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Brown and the NRSC have run joint adsfocused on immigrationandnational security, and Rosen's campaignis already running spotsagainst him focused on abortion rights. Trump hasnotably not endorsed in this race, though on Sunday hecomplimented Brown and seemed to acknowledgehis frontrunner status, For his part, Gunterhas linked himself to Trump, andhas run adsclaiming Brown backs the controversial-but-stalled planto store nuclear wasteat Yucca Mountain. Brownexpressed supportfor the plan during his 2022 bid, but hasbacktracked in the face of criticismthis time around.
It's unclear how big a threat Gunter is to Brown, as an early June survey fromNoble Predictive Insightsfound Brown ahead 53 percent to 15 percent, similar to the results in a mid-May survey conductedby the Tarrance Groupfor Brown's campaign and the NRSC. But Gunter released a late May surveyby Kaplan Strategiesthat found him running about even with Brown at around 30 percent. Outside groups have come in big for Brownto the tune of $4.2 million, and Gunteris enough of a dangerthat the pro-Brown Duty First Nevada super PACis running adsportraying Gunter as a fake Republican. Still, Gunter's campaignactually canceled some ad buysahead of the primary — not exactly a signal of confidence.
Nevada's3rd Districtis a light-blue seat around Las Vegas held by three-term Democratic Rep. Susie Lee that will likelyhost the state's most competitive House race. The two most notable Republican contenders may be video game music composer Marty O'Donnell and former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz, although policy analyst and advocate Drew Johnson and former state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien are also in the mix. O'Donnellhas Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo's endorsement, andhe'd raised $541,000as of May 22 ($500,000 out of his own pocket). That was less thanthe $922,000Schwartz had raised ($900,000 in self-funding). But on May 24, O'Donnellgave himselfan additional $700,000, meaning he's likely outdistanced Schwartz's total. Meanwhile, Johnsonhas raised $432,000($300,000 self-funded) and Helgelienhas raised $282,000.
Interestingly, O'Donnell has saidhe won't accept moneyfrom corporate political action committees, a linewe more typically hear from Democrats. This may help explain why Johnsonhas called O'Donnella "Seattle liberal." Meanwhile, Schwartzhas cast himselfas the candidate who will "drain the swamp," but his post-treasurer electoral track record isn't inspiring: He lost GOP primaries for governorin 2018, U.S. Housein 2020and lieutenant governorin 2022. Helgelienleft the state legislature in 2012, but she does have endorsements from Trump acolytes likeRoger Stoneandhard-right RepublicanReps. Paul Gosar of Arizona and Anna Paulina Luna of Florida.
Next door, Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford will be defending the blue-leaning4th District, and the two principal GOP contenders are retired Air Force Lt. Col. David Flippo and former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee. Flippohas raised $927,000toLee's $851,000— both candidates have self-funded more than half of their totals — but Lee may have the upper hand here, thanks to endorsementsfrom TrumpandLombardo. However, Lee is a former Democratwho switched partiesahead of afailed bid for the Republican nominationfor governor against Lombardo in 2022, which could weaken his appeal among primary voters.
Lastly, there's a GOP primary to monitor in the1st District, another light-blue seat in and around Las Vegas held by Democratic Rep. Dina Titus. Inthe 2022 general election, Titus defeated Army veteran Mark Robertson by nearly 6 percentage points, but Robertsonis back for another go. However,he's only raised $106,000, a figure dwarfed by restaurateur Flemming Larsen, a GOP rival whohas brought in a whopping $1.8 millionthanks to $1.5 million in self-funding. It's unclear if a recent reportby the Nevada Independentdisclosing that Larsen hired undocumented immigrants at his southern California restaurants will notably impact the race.
