随着选举日的临近，佛罗里达、亚利桑那和密歇根等关键州成为总统竞选的焦点。然而，政治专家和分析人士表示，传统上的蓝色州可能会破坏国会的权力平衡。
几个众议院席位纽约根据专家的说法，这次选举中，民主党人和共和党人都在争夺长岛、威彻斯特县和北部的席位，特别是在2022年中期选举期间变红的地区。
在中期选举中，民主党失去了四个纽约州众议院席位，导致共和党获得微弱多数并分裂国会。
福特汉姆大学(Fordham University)历史学副教授克里斯蒂娜·格里尔(Christina Greer)对美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)表示:“这个州经常因为总统选举而被取消，但我们失去了那四个席位的事实……我们不能忽视这个州有几名保守派，也有几名民主党人将投票给共和党。”。
纽约的民主党人目前拥有16个国会席位;共和党拥有10个席位。格里尔说，民主党人正在重新思考他们的策略，并在某些情况下做出重大政策改变，以吸引更多关键地区的中间派选民。
中期叫醒电话
皇后学院(Queens College)助理教授莫娜·克莱恩伯格(Mona Kleinberg)表示，共和党在2022年在纽约的收获对民主党人和政治观察家来说都是一个重大的警钟。
虽然纽约州州长凯西·霍楚尔以53%的选票赢得了州长选举，但她看到了共和党人李·泽尔丁的强烈反对，他在犯罪和公共安全问题上努力竞选。
克莱因伯格说:“你必须记住，拜登战胜特朗普的优势远远大于霍楚尔战胜泽尔丁的优势。”
她说，共和党候选人也把精力集中在地方问题上，而不是一些占据头条的全国性话题，比如堕胎。这一决定导致共和党在长岛和纽约州北部获胜。
例如，众议员肖恩·帕特里克·马洛尼在2022年以微弱优势输给迈克·劳勒，这对该党来说是一个重大挫折。
“民主党人已经变得不那么自在了。这是2022年的教训之一，”克莱恩伯格说。
奥尔巴尼大学政治学副教授萨莉·弗里德曼告诉美国广播公司新闻，全国的民主党人和共和党人都在密切关注纽约发生的事情。
“我认为国会的党派平衡将会很接近，”她说。
两党向中间路线的转变
专家表示，该州的民选官员已经在调整他们的政策和言论，以在今年秋天重新获得席位。
弗里德曼指出，一些民主党人已经减少了他们对更进步政策的推动，包括保释改革和在北部提供更多经济适用房的计划。
她还指出，一些共和党候选人已经偏离了前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)表达的极右言论和观点。
她说:“在纽约，共和党人和民主党人都在就超地方性问题展开竞选活动，并把重点放在他们选区最重要的那些话题上。”。
这种转变似乎对今年冬天翻转关键席位的民主党人有效。
当民主党人汤姆·索兹(Tom Suozzi)赢得纽约第三国会选区的特别选举时，这是在去年陷入困境的共和党新人众议员乔治·桑托斯(George Santos)被驱逐出众议院后举行的，民主党人将他在移民问题上的“冒犯”列为主要因素。
弗里德曼说，该州的郊区和农村地区通常有更多的中间派和独立选民，因此专注于当地问题可能是一种获胜的策略。然而，这种策略也有风险，她补充道。
“这很有趣，因为在初选中，你必须打好自己的基础，但同时你又想确保在11月份获胜，”弗里德曼说。
拥挤收费政策的转变引发关注
两周前，霍楚尔州长宣布暂停纽约市的交通拥堵收费计划，该计划将对驾车人在高峰时段进入曼哈顿的部分地区收取15美元的费用，这让纽约人震惊。
增加的收入应该用于支付纽约市的公共交通项目。
Hochul说，她和其他领导人已经收到了许多司机的担忧，他们认为该计划在财务上过度了。
然而，包括该州进步民主党人在内的批评者呼吁Hochul在最后一刻采取行动，并指责她牺牲了一项长期批准的措施，以吸引住在城外的选民。
克莱恩伯格认为，拥堵费的争论早在霍舒尔任期之前就已经开始了。弗里德曼指出，这一后果表明了该州进步派和更温和的民主党人之间的分歧。
“这类似于华盛顿正在发生的事情，”她解释道。
所有人的目光都集中在初选和初选之后
这种分歧也体现在该州关键的众议院初选中。
现任民主党众议员贾马尔·鲍曼(Jamaal Bowman)代表竞争激烈的第16国会选区，其中包括扬克斯，他面临着与民主党人乔治·拉蒂默(George Latimer)的激烈竞争，后者被认为更加温和。
鲍曼得到了包括参议员伯尼·桑德斯在内的进步人士的支持，而拉蒂默获得了包括前国务卿希拉里在内的老牌民主党人的关键支持。
“随着特朗普的参选，我们比以往任何时候都更需要国会中强大、有原则的民主党人，”克林顿说发布于X.
弗里德曼认为，根据全国范围内国会大选的激烈程度，候选人的语气可能会有所转变。
“就像竞选活动的国有化一样，一般来说，我们会在这些比赛中看到更多的全国性关注，”她说。“想想2020年和2022年的格鲁吉亚。因为事关重大，每个人都把注意力放在了决胜选举上。”
克莱恩伯格补充道:“我们即将迎来总统大选，谁去投票总是会发生变化。”
All eyes on New York's congressional races as key House seats at play
As Election Day nears, battleground states like Florida, Arizona and Michigan are taking the spotlight in the presidential race. Political experts and analysts, however, say a traditionally blue state could disrupt the balance of power in Congress.
Several House seats inNew Yorkstate are up for grabs this election with Democrats and Republicans eyeing to flip seats in Long Island, Westchester County and upstate, particularly in districts that went red during the 2022 midterms, according to experts.
During those midterms, Democrats lost four New York House seats, leading Republicans to seize a small majority and split Congress.
"This state is often written off for the presidential elections, but the fact that we lost those four seats … we cannot ignore that there are several conservatives in this state and there are several Democrats who will vote Republican," Christina Greer, an associate professor of history at Fordham University, told ABC News.
Democrats in New York currently hold 16 congressional seats; Republicans hold 10. Democrats are rethinking their strategies and in some cases making major policy changes to attract more centrist voters in key districts, Greer said.
Midterm wakeup call
The Republican gains in New York in 2022 were a major wakeup call for Democrats and political observers alike, according to Mona Kleinberg, an assistant professor at Queens College.
Although New York Gov. Kathy Hochul won the gubernatorial election with 53% of the total vote, she saw strong opposition from Republican Lee Zeldin, who campaigned hard on crime and public safety concerns.
"You have to remember, the margin for victory for Biden over Trump was way greater than the margin of victory for Hochul over Zeldin," Kleinberg said.
She said Republican hopefuls also focused their efforts on local issues rather than some of the national topics that were dominating the headlines, such as abortion. That decision led to the GOP wins in Long Island and upstate New York.
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney's narrow loss to Mike Lawler in 2022 was a major upset for the party, for example.
"Democrats have become a lot less comfortable. This is one of the lessons of 2022," Kleinberg said.
Sally Friedman, an associate professor of political science at the University of Albany, told ABC News that Democrats and Republicans across the country are keeping a close eye on what happens in New York.
"I think the party balance in Congress is going to be close," she said.
A shift to the center for both parties
Experts said that elected officials in the state have already been adapting their policies and rhetoric to regain seats this fall.
Friedman noted that some Democrats have scaled back their push for more progressive policies, including bail reform and plans to bring more affordable housing upstate.
She also noted that some Republican hopefuls have strayed away from the far-right rhetoric and views expressed by former President Donald Trump.
"In New York, Republicans and Democrats are campaigning on the hyperlocal issues and focusing on those topics that matter most in their districts," she said.
The shift appeared to have worked for Democrats who flipped a key seat this winter.
When Democrat Tom Suozzi won the special election for New York's 3rd congressional district, which was up for grabs after embattled Republican freshman Rep. George Santos was expelled from the House last year, Democrats cited his "offense" on immigration issues as the major factor.
Suburban and rural areas of the state are typically filled with more centrist and independent voters, so zeroing in on local issues can be a winning strategy, Friedman said. There are risks, however, to this strategy, she added.
"It's interesting because in the primaries, you have to play to your base but at the same time you want to ensure that you'll win come November," Friedman said.
Congestion pricing about-face raises concerns
Two weeks ago, Gov. Hochul stunned New Yorkers after she announced that New York City's congestion pricing program, which would have charged motorists $15 for entering parts of Manhattan during peak hours, was put on hold.
The added revenue was supposed to pay for New York City mass transit projects.
Hochul said she and other leaders had received many concerns from drivers who felt the plan was financially excessive.
Critics, including progressive Democrats in the state, however, called out Hochul for the 11th-hour move and accused her of sacrificing a long-approved measure to attract voters who lived outside of the city.
Kleinberg argued the back and forth on congestion pricing has long predated Hochul's tenure. Friedman noted that the fallout is indicative of the division going on in the state between progressives and more moderate Democrats.
"It's similar to what's been going on in Washington," she explained.
All eyes on primaries and beyond
That divide is also playing out in key House primaries in the state.
Incumbent Democrat Rep. Jamaal Bowman, who represents the highly contested 16th congressional district that includes Yonkers, is facing a tight race against Democrat George Latimer, who is seen as more moderate.
Bowman has the support of progressives including Sen. Bernie Sanders while Latimer picked up key endorsements from established Democrats including former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton.
"With Trump on the ballot, we need strong, principled Democrats in Congress more than ever," Clintonposted on X.
Depending on how tight the general congressional races are nationally, there may be a shift in the tone for the candidates, Friedman argued.
"Just like the nationalization of campaigns, generally we will see more national attention on these races," she said. "Think about Georgia in 2020 and 2022. Everyone was focused on the runoffs because of what was at stake. "
Added Kleinberg: "We're heading into a presidential election and that always shifts who turns out to vote."
