1968年3月31日晚9点，林登·b·约翰逊坐在他在参议院任职时就一直使用的大木桌后面，在椭圆形办公室向美国人民发表了讲话。
他的演讲涉及越来越不受欢迎的越南战争，这场战争削弱了他在白宫的52个月，重点是“越南和东南亚的和平”。总统讲了40分钟，然后说到他在最后一刻添加的一段话:
“当美国的儿子们在遥远的战场上，当美国的未来在本土受到挑战，当我们和全世界对和平的希望每天都悬而未决的时候，我不认为我应该把一个小时或一天的时间花在任何个人的党派事业上，或者花在除了这个办公室令人敬畏的职责之外的任何职责上...你们国家的总统职位。”
因此，我不会寻求，也不会接受我的政党提名我连任你们的总统。
林登·约翰逊总统在白宫，1965年1月21日。
通过盖蒂图片的贝特曼档案
这一声明震惊了全世界。约翰逊，一个权力的典范，为了国家的进步而放弃了最终的政治奖赏。
这发生在他所谓的“噩梦之年”的前端，这是一个分裂和动荡的一年，已经经历了朝鲜扣押美国海军船只和逮捕83名水兵，将扭转越战局势的春节攻势，这一年后来目睹了马丁·路德·金和罗伯特·F·肯尼迪的暗杀;城市动荡不安;芝加哥民主党全国代表大会上的暴力反战抗议;以及苏联军队入侵捷克斯洛伐克镇压自由改革。
一个未经证实就被认为是马克·吐温的流行观点断言:“历史不会重演，但它会押韵。”诚然，我们在2024年听到了1968年的韵律，因为我们发现自己被卷入了流向一个不确定甚至可能令人不安的结果的快速历史潮流中——尽管2021年1月6日有不光彩的污点，唐纳德·特朗普在共和党内的统治地位，以及他最近被定罪34项重罪;政治化的最高法院投票授予广泛的总统豁免权，扩大了总统办公室，抵消了权力的平衡;灾难性的总统辩论表现决定了乔·拜登总统的政治命运;和暗杀企图特朗普的生活。
更相似的是，我们从拜登周日在社交媒体上的声明中听到了这一点，他表示他将拒绝接受在下个月的民主党总统候选人提名中，他说:“能成为你们的总统是我一生中最大的荣幸。虽然我一直打算寻求连任，但我相信，我下台并在剩余的任期内专注于履行我作为总统的职责，符合我的政党和国家的最佳利益。”
我们的第36届和第46届总统之间有很多相似之处。两人都成了华盛顿特区的宠儿，在29岁时当选国会议员——LBJ进了众议院，拜登进了参议院。两人都茁壮成长，并对参议院权力的微妙之处有了敏锐的理解，LBJ在众议院任职11年后升任参议员。两人都成了魅力四射、风度翩翩的总统的副总统，这些总统给人以灵感和希望，并投下长长的阴影。两人都凭自己的能力赢得了总统职位，围绕着巨大的立法进步打造了相应的任期。
现在，当然，另一个共同点将是，为了国家和他们的政党的利益，两人都大胆地让位——也许违背了他们坚持总统职位的本能。
还值得一提的是，两者都是为了改善他们的遗产。如果LBJ继续掌权，他会制造更多的分歧，并且更加无情地将自己束缚在越战中。正如伯德·约翰逊夫人后来说的，“我向他致敬，因为他头脑清醒，足以看到他不是那个在那个特殊时刻团结国家的人。”此外，越南可能会削弱他的伟大社会所取得的巨大成就，尤其是民权方面的成就，这是他最持久的立法胜利。虽然随着时间的推移，围绕越战的激情逐渐冷却，需要两代人的时间才能让越南的乌云退去，但如今，LBJ被人们记住的更多是他在民权问题上的领导，而不是一场失败战争的总司令。
拜登遗产的主要支柱将是保护和维护民主，振兴和加强美国在世界各地的联盟，这也是他在信中列举的总统成就之一。拜登实现了这些目标，从特朗普手中夺回了白宫，让美国回归民主价值观和规范，并重振了因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而被削弱的北约。但他冒着在另一个特朗普总统任期内消除这些成就的风险，因为他在连任竞选中打了一手越来越弱的牌。他的副总统和法定继承人卡玛拉·哈里斯有更大的机会阻止另一个特朗普政府，通过折叠和支持他的候选人资格，他更好地确保了对他对国家和世界最重要贡献的保护，最终也保护了他的主要遗产。
下周一，总统将参观LBJ图书馆，纪念LBJ总统签署民权法案60周年。历史上的相似之处将很难被忽视。尽管两人都没有像他希望的那样长时间执政，但结果都留下了更大的印记。
Is American history repeating itself? The parallels between Biden and Lyndon B. Johnson: ANALYSIS
On March 31, 1968, at 9:00 p.m., Lyndon B. Johnson sat behind the large wooden desk he had used since his days in the Senate and addressed the American people from the Oval Office.
His speech concerned the increasingly unpopular war in Vietnam, which had come to cripple his 52 months in the White House, focusing on "peace in Vietnam and Southeast Asia."The president spoke for 40 minutes, then came to a passage he had added at the last minute:
"With American sons in the fields far away, with America's future under challenge right here at home, with our hopes and the world's hopes for peace in the balance every day, I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes or to any duties other than the awesome duties of this office ... the presidency of your country."
"Accordingly, I shall not seek, and will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."
President Lyndon B. Johnson at the White House, Jan. 21, 1965.
Bettmann Archive via Getty Images
The announcement sent shock waves across the world. Johnson, a paragon of power, was relinquishing the ultimate political prize for the betterment of the nation.
It came at the front end of what he called "the nightmare year," a divisive and turbulent year that had already endured the seizure of a United States naval ship and capture of 83 sailors by North Korea, the Tet Offensive that would turn the tide of the Vietnam War, the year that would later see the assassinations of Martin Luther King, Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy; urban unrest and upheaval; violent anti-war protests at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago; and the invasion of Czechoslovakia by Soviet troops to quash liberal reform.
A popular notion, attributed without proof to Mark Twain, asserts, "History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes." To be sure, we hear rhymes of 1968 in 2024, as we find ourselves caught up in the rapid currents of history flowing toward an uncertain and perhaps unsettling outcome—the dominance of Donald Trump within the GOP despite the disgraceful stain of Jan. 6, 2021, and his recent conviction on34 felony counts; a politicized Supreme Court voting to grant broad presidential immunity expanding the office of the presidency and offsetting the balance of power; a disastrous presidential debate performance sealing the political fate of President Joe Biden; and theassassination attempton Trump's life.
More analogously, we heard it in Biden's announcement on social media on Sunday stating that he willdecline to acceptthe Democratic Party's presidential nomination next month in which he stated, "It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your president. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term."
The similarities between our 36th and 46th presidents abound. Both became creatures of Washington, D.C., gaining election to Congress at age 29 -- LBJ to the House, Biden to the Senate. Both thrived and developed a keen understanding of the nuances of power in the Senate, where LBJ ascended after 11 years in the lower chamber. Both became vice presidents for charismatic, elegant presidents who elicited inspiration and hope and cast long shadows. And both earned the presidency in their own right, forging consequential tenures around outsize legislative advances.
Now, of course, another common denominator will be that both boldly stepped aside—perhaps against their instincts to cling to the presidency—for the good of the country and their party.
It also bears mentioning that both did so for the betterment of their legacies. Had LBJ remained in power, he would have created further divisions and bound himself more inexorably to the Vietnam War. As Lady Bird Johnson said later, "I saluted him for being clearheaded enough to see that he wasn't the man at that particular juncture of time to unite the country." Moreover, Vietnam would have threatened to diminish the mammoth accomplishments of his Great Society, especially those around civil rights, his most enduring legislative triumphs. While it would take over two generations for the dark cloud of Vietnam to recede as passions around the war cooled over time, LBJ today is generally remembered more for his leadership on civil rights than as commander-in-chief of a failed war.
The main pillar of Biden's legacy will be the protection and preservation of democracy, and the revitalization and strengthening of America's alliances around the world, which he included in the list of presidential accomplishments he enumerated in his letter. Biden achieved those ends by wresting the White House from Trump, returning the nation to democratic values and norms, and reviving a weakened NATO around Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But he risked the undoing of those attainments with another Trump presidency as he played an increasingly weak hand in his reelection bid. By folding and advocating the candidacy of Kamala Harris, his vice president and heir apparent, who stands a greater chance of staving off another Trump Administration, he better ensures the protection of his most important contribution to the nation and the world—and ultimately his principal legacy.
Next Monday, the president will visit the LBJ Library to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act that LBJ signed as president. The historical parallels will be hard to ignore. Though neither man may have remained in office as long as he might have wished, both left a greater mark as a result.
