股票市场回转本周，一份令人失望的就业报告出炉煽动对经济放缓的担忧。随着美国加速走向今年秋季，这种不确定性引起了高度关注总统选举.
然而，几个月来，随着通货膨胀率的下降，经济逐渐降温。尽管经济学家认为，美国已经多次无视此前有关衰退即将来临的警告不同意目前的情况是否会带来迫在眉睫的风险。
专家告诉美国广播公司新闻，可以肯定的是，经济前景对副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯和前总统唐纳德·特朗普之间的竞争具有模糊的影响。
专家表示，8月份的市场动荡不会对选举结果产生有意义的影响，未来几个月的温和经济降温也不会。然而，他们补充说，一轮严重的经济疲软会损害哈里斯的前景。
“总的来说，就经济对选举前景的影响而言，这是一个清洗，”耶鲁大学法学院保罗·蔡中国中心高级研究员斯蒂芬·罗奇说，他曾在摩根士丹利工作了30年。“只有更严重的衰退才会开始对卡玛拉·哈里斯给竞选带来的准在职状态产生负面影响。”
最近的股市下跌是由周五令人失望的就业报告引发的。7月份，雇主雇佣了11.4万名工人，远低于经济学家预期的18.5万个就业岗位。星期一，S500英镑遭受这是自2022年以来最糟糕的交易时段。此后，该指数几乎收复了所有失地。
失业率今年从3.7%升至4.3%，为2021年以来的最高水平。这一趋势引发了一个被称为“Sahm规则”的衰退指标，即12个月内失业率上升0.5个百分点通常预示着衰退。
然而，劳动力市场仍在增长，失业率仍处于历史低位。与此同时，美国国内生产总值种植截至6月份的三个月内，增速稳定，较上一季度有所加快，并超过2023年的平均增速
斯坦福大学研究经济认知的政治学教授乔恩·克罗斯尼克(Jon Krosnick)对美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)表示，“当选举在11月举行时，人们不会微观关注8月的两天里发生的事情。”。“有很多理由可以说，‘我们先别激动。’"
然而，根据专家的说法，经济冷却的潜在加速给哈里斯带来了风险。
在过去的一年里，美联储一直保持利率不变稳定的处于2001年以来的最高水平。这些高借贷成本给消费者和企业带来了压力，减缓了价格上涨，同时冷却了就业市场，使美国面临经济衰退的风险。
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周表示，央行可能会在9月份的下次会议上降息。投资者普遍预期会有这样的举措。
乔治城大学研究人们如何理解经济新闻的金融学教授Francesco D'Acunto告诉ABC新闻，未来几个月失业率的急剧上升可能会危及哈里斯的前景。
“对民主党候选人来说，劳动力市场至少在选举前是有弹性的，这真的很重要，”达昆托说，并指出他认为迫在眉睫的衰退不太可能发生。
耶鲁大学(Yale University)教授雷·费尔(Ray Fair)负责监督一个基于经济状况预测选举的模型，他告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)，自今年年初以来，选举前景基本上没有变化。
一;一个更新在上个月的选举预测中，哈里斯在民主党候选人名单上取代拜登总统仅几天后，哈里斯就与特朗普打了个平手。“从经济角度来看，选举非常接近，”费尔说，并指出温和的经济放缓有利于共和党，而通胀下降有利于民主党。
费尔说，未来几个月将出现严重的经济衰退，这种前景才会改变。
周日，高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家将美国明年陷入衰退的可能性从15%提高到25%。
乔治敦大学的D'Acunto表示，经济表现仍有足够的时间来改变哈里斯或特朗普的选举前景。但是，他补充说，情况不太可能改变到必要的程度。
“当然，很难预测会发生什么，”达昆托说。
What could the economic slowdown mean for the election?
Stock marketgyrationsthis week came after a disappointing jobs reportstokedconcerns about an economic slowdown. The uncertainty drew heightened attention as the U.S. speeds toward this fall'spresidential election.
However, the economy has been gradually cooling for months, alongside falling inflation. The U.S. has repeatedly defied previous warnings of an impending recession, though economistsdisagreeabout whether current conditions pose an impending risk.
What is certain is that the economic outlook carries murky implications for the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, experts told ABC News.
A stretch of market turmoil in August will not meaningfully impact the outcome of the election, experts said, nor would a mild economic cooldown over the coming months. However, they added, an acute bout of economic weakness would damage prospects for Harris.
“On balance, it’s a wash in terms of the economic impacts on election prospects,” Stephen Roach, senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School, who previously spent three decades working at Morgan Stanley. “It would take a much more severe downturn to begin to have a negative impact on the quasi-incumbency that Kamala Harris brings to the campaign.”
The recent stock market downswing was sparked by a disappointing jobs report on Friday. Employers hired 114,000 workers in July, falling well short of economist expectations of 185,000 jobs. On Monday, the S&P 500sufferedits worst trading session since 2022. The index has since recovered nearly all of those losses.
The unemployment rate has increased this year from 3.7% to 4.3%, its highest level since 2021. That trend has triggered a recession indicator known as the “Sahm Rule,” which says that a rise of 0.5 percentage points in the unemployment rate within a 12-month period typically precedes a recession.
However, the labor market is still growing and the unemployment rate remains at a historically low level. Meanwhile, U.S. gross domestic productgrewat a solid rate over three months ending in June, accelerating from the previous quarter and exceeding average growth in 2023
“People aren’t micro-focused on what happens during two days in August when the election is in November,” Jon Krosnick, a professor of political science at Stanford University who studies perceptions of the economy, told ABC News. “There’s a lot of reason to say, ‘Let’s not get worked up yet.’”
However, a potential acceleration of the economic cooldown poses a risk for Harris, according to the experts.
Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has held interest ratessteadyat their highest level since 2001. Those high borrowing costs have weighed on consumers and businesses, slowing price increases while cooling the job market and putting the U.S. at risk of a recession.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week indicated that the central bank may cut interest rates at its next meeting in September. Such a move is widely expected by investors.
A sharp rise in the unemployment rate over the coming months could imperil prospects for Harris, Francesco D'Acunto, a Georgetown University finance professor who studies how people understand economic news, told ABC News.
“It’s really important for the Democratic ticket that the labor market is resilient until at least the election,” D’Acunto said, noting that he considers an imminent recession unlikely.
Ray Fair, a professor at Yale University who oversees a model that forecasts elections based on economic conditions, told ABC News that the election outlook has remained largely unchanged since the beginning of the year.
Anupdateof the election forecast last month, only a few days after Harris replaced President Biden on the Democratic ticket, put Harris in a virtual tie with Trump. “From an economic point of view, the election is very close,” Fair said, noting that a mild economic slowdown had favored Republicans while falling inflation had benefited Democrats.
It would take a severe economic downturn over the coming months for that outlook to change, Fair said.
On Sunday, Goldman Sachs economists raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next year from 15% to 25%.
D’Acunto, of Georgetown University, said enough time remains for economic performance to shift the election prospects for Harris or Trump. But, he added, it is unlikely that conditions will change to the degree that would be necessary.
“Of course, it’s very hard to predict what will happen,” D’Acunto said.
