副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯撞上了她提名大会根据美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报/益普索最新的民意调查，本周在一场面对面的比赛中领先前总统唐纳德·特朗普，这得益于总统乔·拜登在热情和对工作的准备程度方面的巨大改善，以及包括摇摆不定的独立选民在内的关键群体的支持。
然而，特朗普在民调中两个最受关注的选举问题上仍然占据上风——整体经济和通货膨胀——并且在第三个问题上也领先——移民——使这场比赛成为一场激烈的竞争。
在所有成年人中，哈里斯和州长蒂姆·瓦尔兹(Tim Walz)以50%对45%的比例领先于特朗普和万斯。在现在登记投票的人中，有49%-45%，考虑到抽样误差，哈里斯略有优势。哈里斯在可能的选民中领先6个百分点，51%-45%。
这项由美国广播公司制作的民意调查大致反映了这些结果兰格研究协会现场工作由益普索还发现，53%的人认为哈里斯胜任这份工作，而认为特朗普胜任的人只有47%。
完整结果见PDF。
在五场比赛中，民意调查发现哈里斯/瓦尔兹和特朗普/万斯在普通公众和注册选民中的支持率为47%-44%，在可能的选民中的支持率为49%-45%。这些都没有统计学上的显著差异，表明民主党更喜欢双向竞争。
也就是说，在所有成年人中，小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪(和他的竞选搭档妮可·沙纳汉)的支持率从4月份12%的峰值跌至5%。康奈尔·韦斯特/梅丽娜·阿卜杜拉有1%的支持率，绿党的吉尔·斯坦也是如此。
这些候选人的投票机会待定;据ABC新闻估计，肯尼迪目前在21个州进行投票，斯坦在20个州，韦斯特在8个州。
候选人属性
底层从七月开始转移是戏剧性的，特别是在一些候选人的属性方面。民主党人对总统竞选的满意度和对候选人的热情也大幅上升。
在所有成年人中，哈里斯在两项指标上领先，而拜登则严重落后。美国人以56%-26%的比例选择她而不是特朗普，因为她身体健康，可以有效地担任总统，扭转了特朗普上个月在这一属性上领先拜登31个百分点的局面。哈里斯在被视为具有有效服务所需的精神敏锐度方面领先特朗普9个百分点，抹去了特朗普在这一指标上领先拜登30个百分点的优势。
哈里斯还在诚实和值得信赖方面领先特朗普15个百分点，在更好地代表人们的个人价值观方面领先6个百分点，这两个指标都与拜登退出竞选前的立场大致相符。她在同理心方面领先特朗普7个百分点——理解像你这样的人的问题——这是一个重要的衡量标准，拜登和特朗普在7月份基本持平。
哈里斯还有另一个特点:38%的美国人认为女性担任总统对国家来说是件好事，远远超过认为这是件坏事的14%。剩下的47%的人说没什么区别。(40%的女性认为女总统是件好事，35%的男性也这么认为。)
力量/热情
另一个急剧变化是，60%的哈里斯支持者强烈支持她，与特朗普的强烈支持相匹配，而上个月只有34%的人强烈支持拜登。
此外，总体上有50%的人表示，如果哈里斯当选，他们会感到热情或满意，相比之下，在2023年初，甚至在人们对他的认知年龄的担忧增加之前，有36%的人对拜登表示满意。仅在民主党人和倾向于民主党的独立人士中，哈里斯作为候选人的热情或满意度比拜登高出19个百分点，分别为91%和72%。
总体而言，45%的人表示，他们对特朗普的胜利感到热情或满意，与2023年初的情况大致相同(43%)。在共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士中，这一比例为85%，上升了6个百分点。
诚然，不到一半的美国人(44%)对哈里斯-特朗普的对决感到满意，55%的人不满意。但这与对拜登和特朗普竞选的看法相比有了很大改善，上个月只有28%的人满意，71%的人不满意。
对候选人的看法
另外，哈里斯选择沃尔兹作为她的竞选伙伴比特朗普选择万斯更受欢迎，据周五报道.
关键问题
与此同时，特朗普在处理经济和通胀问题上领先哈里斯9个百分点，大致维持了他上个月在这些问题上对拜登的立场。超过85%的成年人认为这两个问题在他们的总统选举中非常重要，在11个测试问题中名列前茅。
特朗普还领先哈里斯10个百分点，以处理美墨边境的移民局势，而7月份特朗普领先14个百分点。但其他问题的重要性超过了移民，包括医疗保健，哈里斯在这方面领先特朗普7个百分点;保护美国民主，哈里斯+6;犯罪和安全，这两个问题很接近。
值得注意的是，犯罪和安全的差距已经从7月份特朗普领先+7个百分点缩小到现在的特朗普+3个百分点，差距并不明显。哈里斯在处理枪支暴力方面的信任度领先5个百分点，而拜登在7月份与特朗普的信任度几乎持平。这两个转变可能反映了哈里斯作为前检察官的资历。
哈里斯在处理美国最高法院的任命方面也领先5个百分点。在重要性较低的项目中，她在处理堕胎问题上领先特朗普12个百分点，在处理种族关系上领先14个百分点，而在处理以色列/哈马斯战争上领先特朗普+5个百分点(低于拜登的+9个百分点)。
选举问题:重要性和信任
候选人影响力
虽然特朗普在处理经济和移民问题上领先，但大多数人至少在一定程度上给了哈里斯拜登政府在这两个问题上的政策。大约有2比1的公众(64%比33%)认为哈里斯对拜登的经济政策影响有限，57%比39%的公众认为她对移民政策的影响有限。
鉴于这个问题的重要性，经济观点很重要。72%的美国人对经济持负面评价，特朗普肯定会寻求将责任归咎于哈里斯，而她会试图避免这种情况。目前，在对经济持负面评价的人中，他以61%-33%领先;她，89%-8%的人评价积极。周三公布的新通胀数据为2021年初以来的低点，可能会为哈里斯提供帮助，但在拜登/哈里斯任期内，价格和利率仍大幅上涨，对衰退的担忧正在酝酿之中。
特朗普可能在堕胎问题上面临更多挑战。尽管很少有人认为它非常重要，但也有56%-39%的美国人认为特朗普在促使美国最高法院做出取消堕胎宪法权利的决定方面具有重大影响，公众反对这一决定的比例为62%-35%。
堕胎裁决的支持者支持特朗普的比例为81%-13%，但反对堕胎裁决的大多数人支持哈里斯的比例为72%-25%。事实上，在认为特朗普在堕胎裁决中发挥了更大作用的人中，哈里斯以69%比28%领先。在那些认为特朗普影响力较小的人中，特朗普的领先优势变为73%-22%。
基于哈里斯对经济和移民政策影响的观点的投票偏好差距要小得多，而且是在相反的方向上。与认为她影响力较小的人相比，认为她对经济政策影响更大的人对她的支持率高出10个百分点，认为她对移民政策影响更大的人高出9个百分点。
候选人的影响力
投票组
从拜登到哈里斯，群体间的一些变化是惊人的。其中包括:
独立选民对特朗普的支持率从7月份的+4个百分点上升到现在的+11个百分点，相差15个百分点。除了2012年、2004年和1976年之外，独立选民在过去12次总统选举中的9次都是典型的摇摆选民。
40岁以下的人已经从7月份拜登的+2上升到现在哈里斯的+20，摇摆了18个百分点。
7月份，18-29岁的女性比例大致相当(特朗普+2);现在他们以23分的优势领先哈里斯，在这个小组中摇摆了25分。在30岁至49岁的女性中，这一差距几乎与哈里斯相差18个百分点。哈里斯在18-29岁男性中的得分也高于拜登，从7月的拜登+1到现在的哈里斯+14，相差13个百分点。
黑人对哈里斯的支持率上升了12个百分点，从7月份拜登的+60上升到现在哈里斯的+72。她的收获在黑人男性和黑人女性中大致相同。(哈里斯是黑人，南亚人。这项调查中亚洲人的样本量太小，无法进行投票偏好估计，但将最近两次调查与哈里斯-特朗普的对决结合起来(这是拜登退出前首次进行的)，发现哈里斯在亚洲人中领先特朗普65%-32%。)
哈里斯在拉美裔人中看到了8个百分点的转变。这主要发生在西班牙裔女性中，从7月份特朗普的+2到现在哈里斯的+15，摇摆了17个百分点。
在中等收入范围内，家庭收入从5万美元到99999美元的人已经从7月的特朗普+7到现在的哈里斯+8，转变了15个百分点。
关键群体的投票选择发生变化
展望未来
在未来的竞选中，可能会说服一些潜在的选民。在目前不支持特朗普的人中，12%的人说他们会考虑投票给他。在现在不支持哈里斯的人中，有11%的人说他们会考虑她。
问题是候选人如何吸引新的支持者，同时保持其基础的积极性。意识形态路线的吸引力似乎很小:尽管46%的人认为哈里斯过于自由，正如特朗普一贯指责的那样，但几乎同样多的人(42%)认为他过于保守。
另一条具有挑战性的路线是特朗普的论点，即民主党鼓励了导致试图谋杀他的情绪。相反，更多的美国人指责共和党在这个国家有政治动机的暴力风险，37%，而不是指责民主党，26%;另有25%的人认为两者同等重要。
对特朗普最有利的是他在经济上的优势以及哈里斯与拜登的关系，拜登的工作支持率在37%-55%之间，在过去15个月中基本保持稳定。事实上，哈里斯自己对处理她作为副总统的工作的评分只有39%-49%。但特朗普的回顾性评分也处于水下，为44%-49%。至少在这个阶段，哈里斯拥有一个潜在的至关重要的选举商品:势头。
方法学
这项美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报/益普索民意调查是通过基于概率的益普索知识小组于2024年8月9日至13日以英语和西班牙语在2336名成年人的随机全国样本中进行的。党派分歧是29%-29%-29%，民主党-共和党-无党派。结果的误差为抽样误差2个百分点，包括整个样本的设计效果。抽样误差并不是民意测验中差异的唯一来源。
该调查由ABC新闻制作兰格研究协会，由益普索进行采样和数据收集。查看ABC新闻调查方法的详细信息这里.
Harris leads Trump overall but not on handling of the economy: POLL
Vice President Kamala Harris heads into hernominating conventionthis week leading former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup, bolstered by vast improvements over President Joe Biden in enthusiasm and perceived readiness for the job and sharply better support among key groups including swing-voting independents, according to a new latest .
Yet Trump retains the upper hand on the two top-cited election issues in the poll -- the overall economy and inflation -- and also leads on a third -- immigration -- keeping the race a closely contested one.
Among all adults -- relevant since there's plenty of time to register -- Harris and Gov. Tim Walz lead Trump and Sen. JD Vance by 50%-45%. Among those now registered to vote, it's 49%-45%, a slight Harris advantage given sampling tolerances. And Harris has a 6-point lead among likely voters, 51%-45%.
Roughly echoing these results, this poll, produced for ABC byLanger Research Associateswith fieldwork byIpsos, also finds that more people see Harris as qualified for the job, 53%, than say the same about Trump, 47%.
See PDF for full results.
2024 Vote Preference
In a five-way matchup, the poll finds Harris/Walz and Trump/Vance at 47%-44% among the general public and registered voters alike, and 49%-45% among likely voters. None of these is a statistically significant difference, suggesting the Democrats would prefer a two-way race.
That said, among all adults, support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (and his running mate Nicole Shanahan) is down to 5%, from a peak of 12% in April. Cornel West/Melina Abdullah have 1%, as does Jill Stein of the Green Party.
These candidates' ballot access is to be determined; per ABC News estimates, Kennedy currently is on the ballot in 21 states, Stein in 20 and West in eight.
Candidate attributes
Underlyingshifts from Julyare dramatic, particularly in views of some candidate attributes. There also are sharp increases in Democrats' satisfaction with the presidential matchup and enthusiasm for their candidate.
Among all adults, Harris leads on two measures on which Biden lagged badly. Americans by a wide 56%-26% pick her over Trump as having the physical health to serve effectively as president, reversing Trump's 31-point lead over Biden on this attribute last month. And Harris leads Trump by 9 percentage points in being seen as having the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively, erasing a 30-point Trump lead over Biden on this measure.
Harris also leads Trump by 15 points on honesty and trustworthiness and by 6 points in better-representing people's personal values, both roughly matching Biden's position before he left the race. And she leads Trump by 7 points in empathy -- understanding the problems of people like you -- an important gauge on which Biden and Trump were essentially even in July.
Personal Attributes
There's another characteristic particular to Harris: Thirty-eight percent of Americans say that having a woman serve as president would be a good thing for the country, far more than the 14% who see it as a bad thing. The rest, 47%, say it makes no difference. (Forty percent of women call a woman president a good thing, as do 35% of men.)
Strength/enthusiasm
In another sharp change, 60% of Harris' backers support her strongly, matching Trump's strong support and compared with just 34% strong support for Biden last month.
Further, 50% overall say they'd be enthusiastic or satisfied if Harris were elected, compared with 36% who said that about Biden in early 2023, even before concerns about his cognitive age grew. Just among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, enthusiasm or satisfaction with Harris as their candidate is 19 points higher than Biden's at that time, at 91% versus 72%.
Forty-five percent overall say they'd be enthusiastic or satisfied with a Trump victory, about the same as in early 2023 (43%). It's 85% among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, up 6 points.
To be sure, fewer than half of Americans, 44%, are satisfied with a Harris-Trump matchup, with 55% dissatisfied. But that's sharply improved from views on a Biden-Trump race, with which just 28% were satisfied, 71% dissatisfied, last month.
Views on Candidates
It's also the case that Harris' choice of Walz as her running mate has been better received than Trump's selection of Vance,as reported Friday.
Key issues
At the same time, Trump leads Harris by 9 points in trust to handle the economy and inflation alike, roughly maintaining his position on these issues against Biden last month. More than 85% of adults rate both of these as highly important in their vote for president, tops among 11 issues tested.
Trump also leads Harris, by 10 points, in trust to handle the immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, versus a 14-point Trump lead in July. But other issues surpass immigration in importance, including health care, on which Harris leads Trump by 7 points; protecting American democracy, Harris +6; and crime and safety, on which they're close.
Notably, the gap on crime and safety has narrowed from a Trump lead, +7 points, in July, to Trump +3 points now, not a significant gap. And Harris leads by 5 points in trust to handle gun violence, compared with a virtual tie for Biden (+1) against Trump in July. Both shifts may reflect Harris' credentials as a former prosecutor.
Harris also leads, by 5 points, in trust to handle appointments to the U.S. Supreme Court. Among items lower on the importance list, she leads Trump by 12 points in trust to handle abortion and 14 points to handle race relations, while he's +5 points on handling the Israel/Hamas war (down from +9 against Biden).
Election Issues: Importance and Trust
Candidate influence
While Trump leads in trust to handle the economy and immigration, most people give Harris at least somewhat of a pass on the Biden administration's policies on both issues. The public by about a 2-1 margin, 64%-33%, thinks Harris had limited influence on Biden's economic policies, and by 57%-39% says the same about her influence on immigration policies.
Economic views matter, given the issue's importance. With 72% of Americans rating the economy negatively, Trump is sure to seek to pin blame on Harris, and she to try to avoid it. Currently, he leads by 61%-33% among those who rate the economy negatively; she, by 89%-8% among those who rate it positively. Wednesday's new inflation figure, a low since early 2021, may offer help to Harris, but prices and interest rates still have risen sharply on the Biden/Harris watch, and recession fears are afoot.
Trump may face more of a challenge on the abortion issue. Although fewer rate it as highly important, it's also the case that Americans by 56%-39% think Trump had substantial influence in bringing about the U.S. Supreme Court decision eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion -- a decision the public opposes by 62%-35%.
Supporters of the abortion ruling support Trump by 81%-13%, but the majority that opposes it supports Harris, by 72%-25%. Indeed, among people who think Trump had a larger role in bringing about the abortion ruling, Harris leads, 69%-28%. Among those who think Trump had less influence, that flips to a 73%-22% Trump lead.
Vote-preference gaps based on views of Harris' influence on economic and immigration policy are far less pronounced, and run in the opposite direction. She does 10 points better with people who think she's had more influence on economic policy, and 9 points better among those who think she had more influence on immigration policy, both compared with those who think she's had less influence.
Candidates' Influence
Vote groups
Some of the changes among groups from Biden to Harris are striking. Among them:
Independents went from +4 points for Trump in July to +11 Harris now, a 15-point swing. Classic swing voters, independents have gone with the winner in nine of the last 12 presidential elections, all but those in 2012, 2004 and 1976.
People younger than age 40 have moved from +2 Biden in July to +20 for Harris now, an 18-point swing.
Women age 18-29 split about evenly (Trump +2) in July; now they favor Harris by 23 points, a 25-point swing in this group. It's almost as big, an 18-point swing to Harris, among women age 30 to 49. Harris also has improved from Biden's score among men age 18-29, from Biden +1 in July to Harris +14 now, a 13-point swing.
Support from Black people has swung by 12 points in Harris' direction, from +60 for Biden in July to +72 for Harris now. Her gain is about equal among Black men and Black women alike. (Harris is a Black and South Asian person. The sample size of Asians in this survey is too small for a vote-preference estimate, but a combination of the last two surveys with a Harris-Trump matchup, the first done before Biden withdrew, finds Harris ahead of Trump among Asians by 65%-32%.)
Harris has seen an 8-point swing among Hispanic people. That's occurred mostly among Hispanic women, a 17-point swing from +2 for Trump in July to +15 for Harris now.
In the middle-income range, people with household incomes from $50,000 to $99,999 have gone from Trump +7 in July to Harris +8 now, a 15-point shift.
Vote Choice Change Among Key Groups
Looking ahead
Some potential voters may be persuadable in the campaign ahead. Among people who don't currently support Trump, 12% say they'd consider voting for him. Among those who don't now support Harris, an almost equal number, 11%, say they'd consider her.
The question is how the candidates attract new supporters while keeping their bases motivated. Appeals on ideological lines seem thin: While 46% see Harris as too liberal, as Trump consistently charges, almost as many, 42%, see him as too conservative.
Another challenging line is Trump's contention that the Democratic Party encouraged the sentiment that led to an attempt on his life. Instead, more Americans blame the Republican Party for the risk of politically motivated violence in this country, 37%, than blame the Democrats, 26%; an additional 25% blame both equally.
Best for Trump is his advantage on the economy and Harris' association with Biden, who labors under a 37%-55% job approval rating, essentially steady the past 15 months. Indeed, Harris' own rating for handling her job as vice president is just 39%-49%. But Trump's retrospective rating also is underwater, 44%-49%. And at this stage, at least, Harris possesses one potentially crucial election commodity: momentum.
Methodology
This was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Aug. 9-13, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,336 adults. Partisan divisions are 29%-29%-29%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin ofsampling errorof 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News byLanger Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on ABC News survey methodologyhere.
