在2024年竞选的大部分时间里，总统乔·拜登可以很容易地看到自己在民主党全国代表大会上接受该党的提名，这是他寻求第二个白宫任期的胜利之旅。
但现在，拜登周一晚上在芝加哥的黄金时间演讲将标志着他的遗产和共和党的一个苦乐参半的时刻。
此前，随着拜登退出竞选，民主党人对他的年龄和竞选能力的担忧达到沸点，快速洗牌将副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯推上了首位。
中左翼智库第三条道路(Third Way)的联合创始人吉姆·凯斯勒(Jim Kessler)表示:“这在很多方面都是政治上的不同寻常之处，因为在任总统不经常交接权力。”。
他说，这将是一场政治对比研究。
“在某种程度上，这感觉就像是名人堂运动员在最后一个赛季参观体育场。但这也是一场火炬传递，哈里斯的竞选活动关乎未来，”凯斯勒说。“我预计拜登会穿的针是庆祝过去，着眼于未来。”
拜登将在为期四天的全国知名民主党人聚会的开幕之夜发表讲话，哈里斯和她的竞选伙伴州长蒂姆·瓦尔兹(Tim Walz)将庆祝她历史性地成为党内提名人。
周日，当一名记者问他对周一晚上的主题演讲有何感想时，他回答说，“很好，非常好。”
白宫上周表示，拜登不仅期待向民主党人，也期待向整个国家讲述这场选举的利害关系，并呼吁团结。
“他明白这是一个极其重要的时刻，”白宫新闻秘书卡琳·让·皮埃尔告诉记者。“他仍然是该党的领袖，对吗?他对此非常重视。他也为自己的副总统感到非常自豪。”
第一夫人吉尔·拜登，他最坚定的支持者，将在他之前发言，然后夫妇前往加州，不打算留下来听哈里斯周四晚上的演讲。
在哈里斯宣布不再竞选连任几分钟后，拜登支持了他。自那以后，在他们第一次共同露面时，安上周四的活动为了推销更低的处方药价格，拜登说，她将成为“一个地狱般的总统”，因为他遇到了人群，他们高呼“谢谢你，乔!”民主党全国委员会很可能会发出号召。
但是，从他在6月底与唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的辩论中表现不佳，到他退出竞选，这条路充满坎坷，因为他最初仍然无视要求他下台的呼吁。随着越来越多的民主党议员公开敦促他退出，南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)等民主党领导人的私下压力以及民调显示他和特朗普之间的差距不断扩大，拜登于7月21日正式退出。
芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)美国政治学教授威廉·豪厄尔(William Howell)说，“所有迹象都表明，他想发表接受提名的演讲，但这条路被资助者、公众、媒体和党内关键的权力掮客关闭了，所以他不得不改变立场，这很尴尬。”。
尽管如此，观察人士预计拜登将在大会上受到英雄般的热烈欢迎。
豪厄尔说:“肯定会有一些关于他的成就的标注，这不是微不足道的。”
拜登可能会吹捧他的一些政策成就，包括导致医疗保险价格谈判和气候变化投资的通货膨胀削减法案;两党合作的《更安全社区法案》，这是几十年来联邦枪支改革的第一个重要部分;以及基础设施投资和就业法案，其中包括5500亿美元用于高速公路、桥梁、公共交通等方面的新支出。
“他将把自己描绘成一位独特的总统，在这个国家需要一个能够稳定重要机构的人，并且能够在这些因党派偏见而经常紧张的机构内完成事情的时候服务，”休斯顿大学(University of Houston)专注于总统职位的政治学教授布兰登·罗廷豪斯(Brandon Rottinghaus)说。
凯斯勒说:“他有连任现任总统的记录。"阻碍选举的是选民对他年龄的担忧。"
凯斯勒补充道，“当你不需要说服选民投票给你时，发表演讲是一种奢侈。因此，他周一的讲话有一个方面是自由的。”
但拜登的遗产很大程度上可能取决于民主党未来会发生什么，从哈里斯成为候选人开始。
在解释他2024年决定的椭圆形办公室讲话中，拜登说，个人野心不能阻碍拯救民主，是时候迎来下一代了。
“2024年，他让位，这样她和党才能成功。罗廷豪斯说:“只有获得完全的成功，这种宽宏大量的行为才是完整的。”“对于一个说自己将成为过去和未来之间桥梁的总统来说，哈里斯的胜利将是一个界定遗产的时刻。”
Biden to have his DNC moment with opening night speech
For much of the 2024 campaign, PresidentJoe Bidencould easily see himself taking the stage at the Democratic National Convention to accept the party's nomination -- a victory lap as he sought a second term in the White House.
But now, Biden's prime-time speech in Chicago on Monday night will mark a bittersweet moment for his legacy and for the party.
It comes after a rapid shuffle catapulted Vice President Kamala Harris to the top of the ticket as Biden exited the race amid Democrats' concerns about his age and ability to campaign reached a boiling point.
"This is extraordinary in a lot of ways in politics because sitting presidents don't often turn over the reins," said Jim Kessler, co-founder of the center-left think tank Third Way.
The scene will be a study in political contrasts, he says.
"In a way, it feels like a Hall of Fame athlete that's making the tour to stadiums in the final season. But it's also a torch passing and the Harris campaign is about the future," Kessler said. "The needle I expect Biden will thread is celebrating the past and focusing on the future."
Biden is slated to speak on the opening night of what will be a four-day gathering of prominent Democrats from across the nation culminating in Harris and her running mate Gov. Tim Walz celebrating her history-making rise to become the party's nominee.
Asked by a reporter on Sunday how he was feeling about his Monday night keynote, he responded, "Good, real good."
The White House said last week Biden was looking forward to addressing not only Democrats but the nation about what's at stake this election and to call for unity.
"He understands this is an incredibly important moment," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters. "He's still very much the leader of the party, right? And he takes that very seriously. And he's also very proud of his vice president."
First lady Jill Biden, his strongest advocate, will speak before him, and afterward the couple heads to California, not planning to stay for Harris' speech Thursday night.
Biden endorsed Harris minutes after he announced he would no longer run for reelection. At their first joint appearance since then, anevent last Thursdayto tout lower prescription drug prices, Biden said she would make "one hell of a president" as he was met by the crowd with chants of "Thank you, Joe!" -- a rallying call that could very well emerge at the DNC.
But the road from his poor debate performance against Donald Trump in late June to his bowing out of the race was rocky, as he initially remained defiant against calls for him to step aside. With a growing drumbeat of Democratic lawmakers publicly urging him to drop out, private pressure from Democratic leaders such as Nancy Pelosi and polls showing the gap between he and Trump widening, Biden officially withdrew on July 21.
"All signs pointed to him wanting to have delivered that acceptance speech but the road was closed by funders, by the public, by the media, by key power brokers within the party, and so he's having to switch up and it's awkward," said William Howell, an American politics professor at the University of Chicago.
Still, observers expect Biden to receive a resounding hero's welcome at the convention.
"There will certainly be some callouts to his accomplishments, which aren't trivial," Howell said.
Biden is likely to tout some of his policy achievements, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which led to Medicare price negotiations and climate change investments; the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the first major piece of federal gun reform in decades; and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which included $550 billion in new spending for highways, bridges, public transit and more.
"He will paint himself as a unique president that served at a time when the nation needed someone who could stabilize the important institutions and who was able to get things done inside these institutions that are often strained because of partisanship," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston who focuses on the presidency.
"He has a record that would reelect an incumbent," said Kessler. "What stood in the way was voters concerned about his age."
Kessler added, "There's a luxury to giving a speech when you don't have to convince voters to vote for you. So there's an aspect to his address on Monday that's freeing."
But much of Biden's legacy may rest on what happens with the Democratic Party going forward, starting with Harris' candidacy.
In an Oval Office address explaining his 2024 decision, Biden said that personal ambition couldn't get in the way of saving democracy and that it was time to usher in the next generation.
"In 2024, he stepped aside so that she and the party could succeed. That magnanimous act is only complete if it's fully successful," Rottinghaus said. "Harris winning would be a legacy-defining moment for a president who said that he was going to be a bridge between the past and the future."
