曾被称为史上最长的大选2024年的总统竞选已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。
民主党内的快速洗牌意味着，随着新提名的副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯和前总统唐纳德·特朗普在党内大会结束后开始竞选，通常为期一年的竞选活动将缩短至仅10周。
哈里斯将寻求保持她的势头，而特朗普反过来将在乔·拜登总统决定下台导致重大能源转变后，试图阻碍民主党的任何进一步进展。
“哈里斯竞选团队所做的是将民调恢复正常，在一个两极分化的时代，正常意味着全国范围内的激烈竞争，”共和党民调专家惠特·艾尔斯告诉美国广播公司新闻。"现在我们面临的显然是一场势均力敌的比赛。"
艾尔斯说，随着竞选进入高潮，接下来将是对少数几个摇摆州的激光聚焦，这些州将决定选举人团的获胜者，这是特朗普在这个周期通常占据上风的领域。
本周，哈里斯和她的竞选搭档蒂姆·沃尔兹州长首次在佐治亚州一起竞选。特朗普在密歇根州、威斯康星州和宾夕法尼亚州的停留增加了他的出场次数。
两党的策略师都表示，时间较短的竞选活动总体上有利于哈里斯，但仍对两位候选人构成挑战。
“压缩后的日程减少了特朗普竞选团队的攻击面，”曾参与米特罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)2008年和2012年总统竞选的共和党策略师凯文·马登(Kevin Madden)说。“不得不通过100天的审查窗口，总比不得不忍受对手一年的攻击要好。”
这也使得哈里斯更有可能保持这一势头，直到美国人开始投票。在一些地方，投票最早将于9月下旬开始。
“他们在正确的时间达到顶峰，”民主党策略师Antjuan Seawright谈到哈里斯-瓦尔兹的竞选时说。“这就是你在政治上想做的事情，因为你能做的最糟糕的事情——特朗普可能正在遭受这一点——就是过早达到顶峰。”
尽管如此，这意味着哈里斯向选民传递信息的时间减少了，选民可能会对她在某些政策上的立场产生疑问，因为自她作为提名人加入以来，她的议程有限。与此同时，特朗普的知名度和立法职位可以追溯到九年前。
“哈里斯竞选团队很难在短期内推行她的政策，”道格拉斯·赫尔曼说，他曾在2008年和2012年领导巴拉克·奥巴马的邮件战略。"很难在一个简短的活动中涵盖所有的细节."
赫尔曼补充说:“哈里斯竞选活动的主要目标是继续为选民提供更多的支持。”。
另外，如果犯了任何严重的错误，哈里斯反弹的时间就更少了。
她的下一个重大考验将是她成为候选人后承诺的采访。日期尚未确定，尽管哈里斯说她会让她的团队在月底前安排一次采访。
“哈里斯长期回避媒体的真正风险首先是，这不可能永远持续下去，”马登说。“其次，它只是为第一次采访或新闻发布会建立预期，并将其变成一个重大事件。这只是给表演增加了压力。”
下个月，哈里斯和特朗普将在美国广播公司新闻频道主持的首场辩论中会面。这场对决定于9月10日举行。，将在费城的国家宪法中心举行。
毫无疑问，还会有未知的外部因素影响未来70天的竞选活动。
“这场比赛现在如此接近，我不禁相信它将由尚未发生的事件决定，”艾尔斯说。“当我们回想过去六周发生的事情时，试图预测未来六周或十周可能发生的事情是徒劳的。”
With just 10 weeks to go, Harris and Trump gear up for sprint to Election Day
Once dubbed thelongest general election ever, the 2024 presidential race has been flipped on its head.
A rapid ticket shuffle in the Democratic Party means what is typically a year of campaigning will be boiled down to just 10 weeks as newly-nominated Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump hit the trail after their party conventions.
Harris will be looking to maintain her momentum and Trump, in turn, will try to blunt any further progress for Democrats after President Joe Biden's decision to step aside resulted in a significant energy shift.
"What the Harris campaign did was bring polling back to normal, and normal in a polarized age means dead heat races nationally," Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, told ABC News. "Now we have what's clearly a tied race going forward."
Next up as the race kicks into high gear, Ayres said, will be a laser-focus on the handful of swing states that will determine the electoral college winner -- an area where Trump's generally had the upper hand this cycle.
This week, Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, are campaigning together in Georgia for the first time. Trump is ratcheting up his appearances with stops in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The shorter campaign generally favors Harris, strategists on both sides of the aisle said, but still presents challenges for both candidates.
"The compressed calendar has reduced the surface area of attack for the Trump campaign," said Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who worked on Mitt Romney's 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns. "Having to navigate a 100-day window of scrutiny is preferable to having to endure a year's worth of attacks from your opponents."
It also makes it likelier Harris can keep the momentum last until Americans begin casting their ballots, which in some places starts as early as late September.
"They're peaking at the right time," Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright said of the Harris-Walz ticket. "And that's what you want to do in politics because the worst thing you can do -- and Trump may be suffering from this -- is peak too soon."
Still, it means less time for Harris to deliver her message to voters, who may have questions about where she stands on certain policies given her limited agenda rollout since her late entry as the nominee. Trump, meanwhile, has name recognition and legislative positions stretching back nine years.
"It's harder for the Harris campaign to get her policies out in a short campaign," said Douglas Herman, who led Barack Obama's mail strategy in 2008 and 2012. "It's harder to fill in all of the details in a short campaign."
"The major objective for the Harris campaign is to continue to put meat on the bones for the voters," Herman added.
Plus, if any serious blunders are made, there is less time for Harris to bounce back.
Her next big test will be her promised interview since becoming the nominee. No date has been set, though Harris said she would get her team to schedule an interview before the end of the month.
"The real risk of Harris avoiding the media for an extended period of time is first, it can't go on forever," said Madden. "And second, it just builds up anticipation for that first interview or press conference and turns it into a major event. That just creates added pressure on the performance."
Then next month, Harris and Trump will meet for their first debate hosted by ABC News. The showdown, set for Sept. 10., will be held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia.
There will also undoubtedly be unknown external factors that will impact the campaigns over the next 70 days.
"This race is so close now that I can't help but believe it's going to be decided by events that haven't happened yet," said Ayres. "When we think back on what's happened over the last six weeks, it's a fool's errand to try to predict what might happen over the next six or 10 weeks."
