自上任以来，前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)在支持选举候选人方面是否拥有点石成金的能力一直是人们着迷的话题。事实也的确如此争论过媒体对特朗普支持的关注过度了。但是我们已经从屈指可数的有时草率的选择从他在白宫的早期开始。
自特朗普成为总统以来的每个选举周期，他都比前一次支持更多的参议院、众议院和州长候选人，而他审查候选人的方式变得更加专业和战略性。特别是在这个周期，特朗普的支持有了更深的意义。华盛顿特区共和党委员会不顾意识形态的纯洁性，小心翼翼地推出支持的日子已经一去不复返了。今年，共和党的传统部门比以往任何时候都更多地将候选人晋升的控制权拱手让给了特朗普。这位前总统的支持过程已经从杂乱无章发展到清晰有效，使得所有其他的支持几乎都过时了。这只是共和党转变为特朗普政党的最新例子。
特朗普一上任就开始试图塑造共和党的方向以及该党派出的候选人类型，结果是好坏参半。根据538收集的数据，2018年，特朗普在有争议的参议院、众议院和州长初选中仅支持了19名非现任候选人;其中17人(89%)赢得了初选。但是根据Ballotpedia的数据，只有59%的候选人(95人中的56人)支持特朗普一般那年的选举很成功。特朗普作为总统显然发挥了巨大的影响力，但当时他仍只是其中一员共和党内许多利益集团竞相支持候选人。传统的共和党团体，如全国共和党国会委员会和增长俱乐部，比特朗普获得了更多的支持。
然而，在2020年的周期中，特朗普开始支持更多的候选人——他们开始更经常地获胜。在初选期间，时任总统支持了113名参议院、众议院和州长候选人，除了两人之外，所有人要么赢得了初选，要么晋级大选——成功率为98%。部分原因是由于特朗普支持没有竞争对手或已经有可能获胜的候选人.但在竞争激烈的竞选中，他对非现任候选人的打击率仍高达96%(25人中有24人)。
这是特朗普的支持策略开始变得更加深思熟虑的第一个迹象——但在他离任后，这变得真正专业化了。在2022年中期选举之前，特朗普扩大了他的政治团队，并进行战略性招聘帮助领导批准过程。这导致特朗普采取了他支持的新方法当前位置他比以往任何时候都更早地开始做这些决定，在竞争激烈的初选中支持更多的候选人，并在选票减少的竞选中发挥作用。
那个周期，他支持的候选人比他以往任何时候都多。在2022年的初选中，特朗普支持了190名参议院、众议院和州长候选人，其中181人赢得或晋级大选，成功率高达95%。也就是说，在竞争激烈的初选中，他在非现任者中的胜率要低得多:只有82%(45票中的37票)。这两个数字都低于2020年。不过，这有一个很好的理由:特朗普在明确的领先者(以及容易获得支持的人选)出现之前，通过更早地参与竞争来做出更高风险的决定。2022年，他甚至开始支持现任者的初选挑战者，这总是一个棘手的问题。(尽管如此，60%的人还是赢了。)
根据Ballotpedia在2022年，特朗普也有他最高的成功率一般84%的支持者赢得了选举。记住，2022年的期中考试对共和党人来说并不是一致的成功;相反，这反映出特朗普越来越擅长挑选赢家。
根据538收集的数据，这一周期，特朗普在截至9月10日举行初选的州支持了199名参议员、众议员和州长候选人——略多于他在2022年支持的候选人，也是他在一个周期中支持的最多的候选人。其中，191人——或96%——要么赢得了大选，要么进入了大选。只有八个特朗普的选择失败了，尽管值得注意的是，其中四个失败者——密苏里州州长竞选中的杰伊·阿什克罗夫特和比尔·艾格尔，亚利桑那州第八选区的布莱克·马斯特斯和华盛顿州第四选区的蒂芙尼·斯迈利——输给了特朗普支持的另一位候选人，因为他在这些竞选中支持了多位候选人(这是一种终极的填补记录的举动)。
然而，如果你只看有争议的初选中的非现任者，特朗普的记录看起来又一次不太好。在特朗普今年支持的45名候选人中，有37人赢得或晋级大选，与2022年一样，胜率为82%。这些支持表明特朗普的策略变得多么有凝聚力:他继续早期支持，采取更冒险的摇摆，偶尔通过在同一场比赛中支持多个候选人来颠覆传统。
因此，特朗普的支持已经成为共和党政治中最令人垂涎的名字。2020年，面对挑战者，肯塔基州众议员托马斯·马西甚至买下了西棕榈滩的广告时间希望引起特朗普的注意(特朗普在那场比赛中从未选择立场，尽管马西赢了)。在2022年俄亥俄州大选期间，就连特朗普的竞选搭档JD Vance参议员也开展了一场竞选活动，以赢得这位前总统的支持，他的三个主要竞争对手也是如此。当然，万斯最终得到了特朗普的支持从根本上改变了比赛当前位置万斯在获得提名前一直落后于两位领先者，但最终他不仅赢得了提名，还赢得了大选。
布莱恩·杰克，曾为特朗普竞选工作的顾问现在，作为佐治亚州第三选区的共和党提名人，他的支持者说，特朗普的支持是他竞选的游戏规则改变者。在特朗普获得支持之前，杰克说他在自己的选区的民调支持率约为1%。他在初选中赢得了47%的多数选票，并在决选中以63%的选票赢得了提名。
“特朗普总统的支持和以美国第一为平台的良好竞选活动相结合，在共和党初选中是不可阻挡的，”杰克说。"这是美国政治中最强有力的支持."
相比之下，传统的共和党团体在支持方面已经放弃了越来越多的权力。例如，在过去的周期中，NRCC将逐步推出其“年轻的枪”计划的类别:达到一定筹款和信息门槛并在竞争中赢得委员会支持的候选人。例如，在2018年中期选举中一等舱是一年多前宣布的。在今年的选举中，没有一个候选人被提名到7月份，26名候选人中有10名已经获得了特朗普的支持(一名候选人在不到一周后获得了特朗普的支持，其余候选人都在特朗普尚未支持的竞选中)。与此同时，国家共和党参议院委员会开始十年来首次支持初选候选人但是他们的选择——比如亚利桑那州的Kari Lake往往比过去更有MAGA风味。
现在，正如我们之前在538检查过的，特朗普的支持成功的一部分可以归结为，本质上，填补他的记录。显然，支持一个没有对手的现任不是一个冒险的赌注，而且特朗普经常会支持那些已经获得很多当权派支持的候选人。但这也是为什么共和党当权派将如此多的加冕权力交给前总统在政治上更具风险的部分原因。当特朗普赌一把的时候，比如他支持电视主持人穆罕默德·奥兹竞选宾夕法尼亚州2022年参议员前对冲基金首席执行官大卫·麦考密克——他被党内许多人视为更强有力的候选人——可能会以灾难告终。
但对特朗普来说，没有坏处。他的支持过程的工业化只会让他变得更强大，并巩固共和党的盛大宣传。现在，他支持的候选人是赢是输已经不重要了。通过支持他们并让该党支持他们，特朗普已经赢得了对共和党的控制。
Trump endorsed more Republicans in 2024 than ever before
Whether former President Donald Trump has the Midas touch when it comes to endorsing candidates in elections has been a subject of fascination since he first entered office. And it hasbeen arguedthat the media's fixation on Trump's endorsements has been excessive. But we've come a long way from the handful ofsometimes sloppy picksfrom his early days in the White House.
Each election cycle since he became president, Trump has endorsed more Senate, House and governor candidates than the one before, while the manner in which he vets candidates has become much more professional and strategic. And this cycle in particular, Trump's endorsements have taken on a deeper meaning. Gone are the days of GOP committees in Washington, D.C. carefully rolling out endorsements regardless of ideological purity. This year, more than ever before, traditional arms of the Republican Party have practically ceded control of candidate promotion to Trump. The former president's endorsement process has evolved from haphazard to sharp and effective, rendering all other endorsements all but obsolete. It's just the latest example of the Republican Party's transformation into the Party of Trump.
Trump began trying to shape the direction of the Republican Party and the kind of candidates it fielded as soon as he took office, and the results were a mixed bag. In 2018, Trump endorsed just 19 non-incumbent candidates in contested primaries for Senate, House and governor, according to data collected by 538; 17 of them (89 percent) won their primaries. Butaccording to data from Ballotpedia, just 59 percent (56 out of 95) of the candidates Trump endorsed in thegeneralelection that year were successful. Trump obviously wielded great influence as the president, but at that time he was still just one ofmany competing interest groups within the Republican Party to endorse candidates. Traditional GOP groups like the National Republican Congressional Committee and Club for Growth made more total endorsements than Trump.
In the 2020 cycle, though, Trump started endorsing more candidates — and they started winning more often. During the primaries, the then-president endorsed 113 Senate, House and governor candidates, and all but two either won their primaries or advanced to the general election — a success rate of 98 percent. Part of that wasdue to Trump endorsing candidates who were uncontested or already likely to win.But his batting average for non-incumbent candidates in contested races was still an impressive 96 percent (24 out of 25).
That was the first sign that Trump's endorsement strategy was starting to become more thought out — but it got truly professionalized after he left office. Leading up to the 2022 midterms, Trump expanded his political team andmade strategic hiresto help head the endorsement process. That led to Trump taking anew approach to his endorsements: He began making them earlier than ever, backing more candidates in competitive primaries and weighing in on downballot races.
That cycle, heendorsed more candidates than he ever had before. During the 2022 primaries, Trump backed 190 Senate, House and governor candidates, with 181 of them winning or advancing to the general election, an excellent success rate of 95 percent. That said, his win rate for non-incumbents in contested primaries was significantly lower: just 82 percent (37 out of 45). And both numbers were lower than they were in 2020. There's a good reason for that, though: Trump was making riskier calls by getting involved in competitive races earlier, before a clear front-runner (and easy pick for endorsement) had emerged. In 2022, he even started backing primary challengers to incumbents, which is always a tough row to hoe. (Nevertheless, 60 percent of them won.)
According to Ballotpedia, in 2022, Trump also had his highest success rate forgeneralelection endorsements, with 84 percent of his endorsees winning their races. And remember, the 2022 midtermswere not a uniform success for Republicans; instead, this reflected Trump getting better at picking winners.
This cycle, Trump endorsed 199 candidates for Senate, House and governor in states that held primaries through Sept. 10 — slightly more than he endorsed in 2022 and the most candidates he's ever endorsed in a cycle, according to data collected by 538. Of those, 191 — or 96 percent — either won or advanced to the general election. Just eight of Trump's picks lost, though it's worth noting that four of those losers — Jay Ashcroft and Bill Eigel in the Missouri governor's race, Blake Masters in Arizona's 8th District, and Tiffany Smiley in Washington's 4th District — lost to another candidate endorsed by Trump, because he endorsed multiple candidates in those races (kind of the ultimate record-padding move).
Once again, though, Trump's record didn't look quite so good if you just look at non-incumbents in contested primaries. Of the 45 such candidates Trump endorsed this year, 37 won or advanced to the general election, the same 82 percent win rate as in 2022. These endorsements demonstrate how cohesive Trump's strategy has become: He's continued to endorse early, take riskier swings, and occasionally upend tradition by endorsing multiple candidates in the same race.
As such, Trump's endorsement has become the most coveted name drop in Republican politics. In 2020, facing a challenger, Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massiewent so far as to buy ad time in West Palm Beachhoping to get on Trump's radar (Trump never did pick sides in that race, though Massie was victorious). Even Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance, ran a campaign to win the former president's backing, as did three of his primary competitors, during the 2022 election in Ohio. Vance, of course, ultimately got Trump's endorsement, and itfundamentally shifted the race: Vance had been trailing the two front-runners before the endorsement, but he ended up winning not only the nomination but also the general election.
Brian Jack,a consultant who has worked on Trump's campaignand is now, as the Republican nominee for Georgia's 3rd District, the recipient of his endorsement, said Trump's backing was a game changer for his campaign. Prior to Trump's endorsement, Jack says he was polling around 1 percent in his district. He went on to win a plurality of the vote in the primary, with 47 percent, and win the nomination in the runoff with 63 percent of the vote.
"The combination of President Trump's endorsement and a well-run campaign with an America First platform is unstoppable in a Republican primary," Jack said. "It is the most powerful endorsement in American politics."
By contrast, traditional GOP groups have been ceding more and more power on the endorsement front. In past cycles, for instance, the NRCC would gradually unveil classes of its "Young Guns" program: candidates who had met certain fundraising and messaging thresholds and earned the backing of the committee in competitive races. In the 2018 midterms, for instance, thefirst class was announced more than a year before. For this year's election, not a single candidate wasnamed to the list until July, and 10 of the 26 candidates had already clinched Trump's endorsement (one candidate Trump endorsed less than a week later, the rest were in a race for which Trump had not yet endorsed a candidate). Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee startedendorsing primary candidates this cycle for the first time in a decade, but their choices — such as Kari Lake in Arizona — have often been more MAGA-flavored than they might have in the past.
Now,as we've examined here at 538 before, part of Trump's endorsement success can be boiled down to, essentially, padding his record. It's obviously not a risky bet to endorse an unopposed incumbent, and oftentimes Trump endorses candidates who have already garnered a lot of establishment support anyway. But that's partly why it's all the more politically risky for the GOP establishment to have handed over so much of its coronation power to the former president. When Trump does take a gamble, such as whenhe backed TV host Mehmet Oz for Pennsylvania's 2022 Senate raceover former hedge fund CEO David McCormick — who was seen by many in the party as the stronger candidate — it can end in disaster.
But for Trump, there's no downside. The industrialization of his endorsement process has only made him stronger and solidified the grand Trumpification of the GOP. Now, it matters less whether the candidates he backs win or lose. By backing them and having the party fall in line behind them, Trump has already won control of the Republican Party.
