北卡罗来纳州和全国的共和党人正在评估前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的潜在影响，这是一篇爆炸性的报道，称该党的州长候选人马克·罗宾逊(Mark Robinson)在一个色情网站的论坛上发布了令人不安的煽动性言论。
CNN报道周四，罗宾逊以一个据称在其他地方使用的匿名用户名发表了十多年前的评论，包括支持奴隶制，称自己为“黑纳粹”，并回忆起他14岁时在浴室“偷窥”女性的记忆。
ABC新闻还没有独立证实这些评论是由罗宾逊发表的，他在故事发表前发布到X的视频中坚持说，“这些不是马克·罗宾逊的话。”
但唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的盟友罗宾逊(Robinson)已经有过对犹太人、同性恋者和其他人发表煽动性言论的历史，北卡罗来纳州是美国最大的摇摆州之一，该州的选举处于危险边缘，这引发了一个问题，即最新消息会在多大程度上影响他的种族和与他一起投票的其他共和党人——包括前总统。
“我认为这只会提高罗宾逊竞选的毒性水平，真正的问题是，在北卡罗来纳州共和党人的选票上，放射性沉降物是什么?”卡托巴学院政治系主任迈克尔·比策问道。
“选民不会意识到这一点，这可能会削弱共和党的支持。是只孤立于罗宾逊的竞选，还是开始冲击川普?它是否也影响了其他全州的共和党行政官员?我们只能等着瞧，但这感觉像是北卡罗来纳州政治中一个非常重要的事件。”
罗宾逊把自己塑造成一个保守的居家男人，正在竞选北卡罗来纳州州长，与民主党州检察长乔希·斯坦竞争已经在民意调查中落后了.
虽然他在全州范围内任职，并拥有广泛的知名度，但鲁滨逊却有一个极具争议的记录，包括将大屠杀称为“猪食”，将同性恋称为“污秽”，今年他承认自己花钱让妻子堕胎，这似乎与他声明反对堕胎的做法形成了鲜明对比，他此前将堕胎比作“谋杀”和“种族灭绝”。
鉴于该州党派分歧严重，北卡罗来纳州的州长竞选仍被认为具有竞争力，但该州的共和党人告诉ABC新闻，他们已经认为他落后，周四的报告不会有帮助。
“他在互联网上发表类似评论的历史已经很长了。这些可能更形象一些。我不知道这本身是不是一个断头台。但感觉累积的重量现在开始增加，”北卡罗来纳州共和党策略师说。“这与他公开展示的自己的一切背道而驰。所以，累积起来加上这种虚伪，显然对他是有伤害的。”
共和党人在罗宾逊的候选资格之外的意义上分歧更大。
北卡罗来纳州是特朗普必须获胜的州，失去它将对他在其他摇摆州的表现施加巨大压力。
川普已经领先于罗宾逊——虽然民调显示罗宾逊落后，但他们也显示出前总统和副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在该州不分上下。现在的主要问题是，这个消息是否会降低共和党的投票率，在这个州，即使投票率以这样或那样的方式小幅上升，也可能决定获胜者。
“[罗宾逊]已经被烤熟了。问题是这是否会伤害川普，这是竞选团队非常担心的，”在北卡罗来纳州工作过的资深共和党策略师道格·叶禾说。“他没有直接失去选民，但他认可的选择仍然是一个很大的干扰，没有钱来推动投票。”
“他是特朗普在焦油脚跟州机会的蓝色小主播，”特朗普的捐赠者丹·埃伯哈特补充说。“这对特朗普的竞选来说根本不是好消息。”
民主党人已经抓住这条新闻，试图将罗宾逊与特朗普联系起来，特朗普多次称赞他，甚至一度称他为“服用类固醇的马丁·路德·金”。
作为哈里斯竞选团队快速反应工具之一的X页面卡玛拉总部发布了一系列视频，内容是川普对罗宾逊的正面评价。
北卡罗莱纳州民主党筹款人布鲁斯·汤普森(Bruce Thompson)说，“在这个故事之前，他的竞选活动就已经结束了，所以真正的影响是所有支持他并与他一起竞选的共和党人。”
然而，特朗普已经能够驾驭自己的逆风，包括在纽约被判重罪，质疑哈里斯的种族，以及更多保持其政党领袖和可行的总统候选人，导致一些共和党人怀疑罗宾逊的斗争将影响总统竞选。
“我怀疑这是否会对选票产生任何影响，”支持特朗普的超级政治行动委员会主席、共和党策略师戴夫·卡尼(Dave Carney)说。
特朗普的第一任白宫新闻秘书肖恩·斯派塞(Sean Spicer)补充说:“我不认为这有什么帮助，但也不会有什么坏处。”
特朗普竞选发言人卡罗林·莱维特(Karoline Leavitt)听起来很自信，他在一份声明中说，前总统的团队“不会把我们的注意力从球上移开。”
“特朗普总统的竞选活动专注于赢得白宫和拯救这个国家。北卡罗来纳州是该计划的重要组成部分。我们相信，随着选民将特朗普强劲的经济、低通胀、安全的边境和安全的街道的记录与拜登-哈里斯的失败进行比较，特朗普总统将再次赢得塔尔赫勒州，”她说。"
尽管如此，知情人士表示，特朗普竞选团队正在准备推出一个关于罗宾逊的故事，并计划加大前总统和四面楚歌的被提名人罗宾逊之间的距离-但最初没有计划呼吁他退出。
“他似乎没有受到他下面的选票所发生的事情的影响，”北卡罗来纳州共和党战略家谈到特朗普。“这对他没有帮助。但这会伤害他吗?我不知道，我认为这是个悬而未决的问题。”
Republicans assess potential fallout for Trump from North Carolina bombshell.
Republicans in North Carolina and nationally are assessing the potential fallout for former President Donald Trump from a bombshell report alleging that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the party's gubernatorial nominee, posted disturbing and inflammatory statements on a forum of a pornographic website.
CNN reportedThursday that Robinson, behind an anonymous username he allegedly used elsewhere, made the comments more than a decade ago, including supporting slavery, calling himself a "black NAZI" and recalling memories of him "peeping" on women in the shower as a 14-year-old.
ABC News has not independently verified the comments were made by Robinson, and he insisted in a video posted to X prior to the story's publication that "those are not the words of Mark Robinson."
But Robinson, a Donald Trump ally, already has a history of incendiary remarks about Jews, gay people and others, and elections in North Carolina, one of the nation's marquee swing states, rest on a knife's edge, raising questions of how much the latest news will impact his race and other Republicans on the ballot with him -- including the former president.
"I think this only heightens the level of toxicity that the Robinson campaign has, and the real question becomes, what's the radioactive fallout at the top of the ticket along with down the ballot for Republicans here in North Carolina?" asked Michael Bitzer, the Politics Department chair at Catawba College.
"This cannot be something that the voters aren't going to recognize and probably play more into softening the Republican support. Is it isolated only to Robinson's campaign, or does it start to impact Trump? Does it impact other statewide executive Republicans as well? We'll just have to wait and see, but this feels like a pretty significant event in North Carolina politics."
Robinson, who casts himself as a conservative family man and is running for North Carolina's open governorship against Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein, isalready behind in the polls.
While he holds statewide office and has broad name recognition, Robinson boasts a highly controversial record, including calling the Holocaust "hogwash" and homosexuality "filth," and he drew claims of hypocrisy when he admitted this year that he had paid for his wife to get an abortion, seemingly in contrast with his stated opposition to the procedure, which he'd previously likened to "murder" and "genocide."
North Carolina's gubernatorial race is still considered competitive given the state's tight partisan divide, but Republicans in the state told ABC News they had already viewed him as trailing, and that Thursday's report won't help.
"He's already got a lengthy history of publishing comments like that on the internet. These are perhaps a little more graphic. In terms of does this by itself serve as a guillotine, I don't know. But it feels like the cumulative weight is starting to add up now," said one North Carolina GOP strategist. "It flies in the face of everything he presents of himself publicly. So, cumulatively plus the hypocrisy of this, it's obviously hurtful to him."
Republicans were more divided on what it means beyond Robinson's own candidacy.
North Carolina is a must-win state for Trump, and losing it would impose significant pressure on him to perform in other swing states.
Trump is already running ahead of Robinson -- while polls show Robinson trailing, they also show a neck-and-neck race in the state between the former president and Vice President Kamala Harris. The main question now is whether the news depresses Republican turnout in a state where even a small nudge in turnout one way or the other can make decide the victor.
"[Robinson] was already toast. The question is if it hurts Trump, something the campaign is very worried about," said Doug Heye, a veteran GOP strategist with experience working in North Carolina. "It doesn’t directly cost him voters, but his endorsed pick continues to be a big distraction and has no money to drive out the vote."
"He's a baby blue anchor around Trump’s chances in the Tar Heel State," added Trump donor Dan Eberhart. "This is not good news for Trump's campaign at all."
Democrats are already seizing on the news to try to connect Robinson to Trump, who has repeatedly praised him, even calling him at one point "Martin Luther King on steroids."
Kamala HQ, an X page that serves as one of the Harris campaign's rapid response tools, posted a slate of videos featuring Trump speaking positively about Robinson.
"His campaign was toast before this story, so the real impact is on all of the Republicans who have endorsed and campaigned alongside him," said Bruce Thompson, a North Carolina Democratic fundraiser.
However, Trump has been able to navigate his own headwinds, including felony convictions in New York, questioning Harris' race and more to remain the leader of his party and a viable presidential candidate, leading some Republicans to doubt that Robinson's struggles will impact the presidential campaign.
"Doubt it impacts at all down-ballot," said Dave Carney, a GOP strategist who chairs a pro-Trump super PAC.
"I don’t think it helps, but it won't hurt," added Sean Spicer, Trump's first White House press secretary.
Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt sounded a confident note, saying in a statement that the former president's team would "not take our eye off the ball."
"President Trump’s campaign is focused on winning the White House and saving this country. North Carolina is a vital part of that plan. We are confident that as voters compare the Trump record of a strong economy, low inflation, a secure border, and safe streets, with the failures of Biden-Harris, then President Trump will win the Tarheel State once again," she said."
Still, sources familiar with the matter said the Trump campaign was bracing for a story to come out about Robinson and is planning on putting more distance between the former president and the embattled nominee Robinson -- but initially did not have plans to call on him to drop out.
"He seems to not be impacted by what's going on down-ballot underneath him," the North Carolina Republican strategist said of Trump. "There's no way it helps him. But does it hurt him? I don't know, I think that's an open question."
