得克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特(Greg Abbott)最近决定考虑在十年中期重新划分该州的国会选区,这可能会为共和党增加更多席位,这促使民主党人发出新的威胁,要把共和党人从蓝色州的席位中拉出来。
重新划分选区的计划预计在即将召开的特别会议该会议将于7月21日开始,并穿插到一个重点关注洪水准备和灾后救援的议程中德克萨斯州中部的大洪水。特别会议只能持续最多30天。
共和党控制的州议会在2021年绘制了当前的地图,该地图将一直有效到2031年。
唐纳德·特朗普总统的政治运作展望未来上个月,为了支撑共和党脆弱的众议院多数,该州国会代表团的反应不温不火。然而,就在本周,特朗普批准了这一努力,并希望他的政党在德克萨斯州重新绘制国会地图的情况下获得五个席位。他认为“可能”会有其他州效仿。他没有具体说明是哪些州。
州共和党人有过一些改变现状的先例——2003年,德克萨斯州共和党人试图在中期调整他们的选区。为了挫败这一努力,大约50名民主党人当时逃到了邻近的俄克拉荷马州,否认了会议的法定人数,并使立
民主党人正在反击。
周一,州议员与美国众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯、民主党全国委员会主席肯·马丁和前司法部长埃里克·霍尔德就特别会议举行了电话会议。他们没有直接鼓励成员进行罢工,电话中的一位消息人士告诉ABC新闻。尽管如此,该消息人士补充说,州众议院议员继续保持他们所有的选择开放。
加州州长。加文·纽瑟姆更加明确——讲述拯救美国播客他已经与州立法者谈过,要求召开特别会议,开始修改州法律,以重新划分他们的选区,以回应阿博特。
“如果我们要在一个完全不公平的世界中公平竞争,我们可能会有更高的道德基础,但这个基础正在从我们下面转移。我认为我们必须清醒地认识到这一现实,”纽瑟姆说。
加利福尼亚有一个独立选区划分委员会旨在防止不公正的选区划分,但选举和选区划分专家保罗·米切尔说,纽森可以绕过委员会,要么在特别选举中获得选民对投票措施的批准,要么在法庭上辩论。
一项潜在的投票措施可能会停止该委员会划定国会选区的权力,直到其他州开始使用类似的委员会,并且“可以在下次选举前及时完成”,而不会出现法律问题。这种情况下最大的不确定性是选民是否会支持它。
或者,纽瑟姆可以争辩说,委员会只有在十年末重划选区的权力,但立法机关仍然可以在十年中期重划选区。米切尔说,加州最高法院是否会支持这一论点还是个未知数。
知情人士说,杰弗里斯周三与加州国会代表团一起讨论了这一前景。专家向美国广播公司建议,其他民主党控制的州可以效仿加州,如纽约、马里兰或伊利诺伊州,但不清楚是否会有重大的战略优势。
霍尔德的全国民主党重划委员会执行董事玛丽娜·詹金斯(Marina Jenkins)在一份声明中表示,共和党人正试图“压制投票”,并认为如果重新划分地图,“诉讼将立即雪崩”。
“此刻需要甲板上所有的人手来阻止他们,”詹金斯说。
加州民主党国会代表团主席佐伊·洛夫格伦众议员和众议院民主党核心小组主席皮特·阿吉拉尔众议员在一份联合声明中表示,德克萨斯州“令人震惊的”重划选区尝试“不能不予回应”。
当被问及这些指控时,阿博特的发言人写道,“虽然党派活动家只关注政治问题,但阿博特州长致力于在对德州人重要的问题上取得成果,”包括洪水救援。
共和党策略师、前德克萨斯州共和党执行董事查德·威尔班克斯(Chad Wilbanks)告诉美国广播公司(ABC)新闻,“我交谈过的共和党人非常支持十年中期的选区重划。”他认为,由于该州的人口变化,共和党至少可以获得三个席位。
威尔班克斯驳斥了民主党人的说法,即重划选区策略是出于政治动机,是“标准政治”。
不管怎样,民主党人正在进攻。一位接近该委员会的消息人士告诉美国广播公司新闻,众议院民主党人的竞选机构民主党国会竞选委员会向德克萨斯州国会民主党人做出口头承诺,投资六位数来支持数字广告和其他行动,以就重划选区的尝试向共和党人施压。马丁周五应州民主党人的邀请前往德克萨斯州,为下一步行动制定策略。
“如果得克萨斯州的共和党人想要摊牌,我们会给他们摊牌,”马丁在一份声明中说。
Texas Republicans might redraw congressional maps. Democrats plan to strike back
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott's recent decision to consider redrawing his state's congressional districts mid-decade, which could eke out more seats for the Republican Party, has prompted Democrats to issue new threats to draw Republicans out of seats in blue states.
Redistricting plans are expected during anupcoming special session, which will begin on July 21, interspersed into an agenda focused on flood preparation and relief aftermajor flooding in central Texas. The special sessioncan only lasta maximum of 30 days.
The Republican-controlled state legislature drew the current map in 2021, which was set to remain in effect until 2031.
President Donald Trump's political operationfloated the prospectlast month, in efforts to shore up the GOP's fragile House majority, to tepid responses from the state's Congressional delegation. Yet, just this week, Trump rubber-stamped the effort, and wants his party to pick up five seats if Texas redraws its Congressional maps. He suggested that there "could be" other states that follow suit. He did not specify which states.
State Republicans have some prior precedent of shifting things around— in 2003, Texas Republicans attempted to tweak their districts mid-cycle. In trying to thwart the effort, around 50
Democrats are pushing back.
On Monday, state lawmakers held a call with U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, and former Attorney General Eric Holder regarding the special session. They did not directly encourage members to stage a walkout, a source who was on that call told ABC News. Still, the source added the state House members are continuing to keep all their options open.
California's Gov.Gavin Newsomis being more explicit –telling the Pod Save America podcastthat he has spoken to state lawmakers about calling a special session to begin making changes to state law in order to redraw their districts in response to Abbott.
"If we're gonna play fair in a world that is wholly unfair, we may have the higher moral ground, but the ground is shifting from underneath us. And I think we have to wake up to that reality," Newsom said.
California has anindependent redistricting commissionintended to prevent gerrymandering, but Paul Mitchell, an elections and redistricting expert, said Newsom could go around the commission either by getting voters' approval on a ballot measure in a special election or by arguing in court.
A potential ballot measure could halt the commission's authority to draw congressional districts until other states began using similar commissions, and "could all be done in time for the next election" without legal issues. The biggest uncertainty in this scenario would be whether or not voters would support it.
Alternatively, Newsom could argue the commission only has authority over decade-end redistricting, but the legislature can still redistrict mid-decade. Mitchell said it was a coin toss whether the California Supreme Court would uphold this argument.
Jeffries huddled with California's congressional delegation to discuss the prospect Wednesday, a source familiar said. Experts suggested to ABC that other Democratic-held states could follow California's lead, such as New York, Maryland or Illinois, but it's unclear if there would be a significant strategic advantage.
Marina Jenkins, the executive director Holder's National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said in a statement that Republicans are trying to "suppress votes" and believes an "an immediate avalanche of lawsuits" will come if the maps are redrawn.
"This moment requires all hands on deck to stop them," said Jenkins.
Rep. Zoe Lofgren, chair of the California Democratic Congressional Delegation, and Rep. Pete Aguilar, Chair of the House Democratic Caucus, stated in a joint announcement that Texas' "egregious" redistricting attempts "cannot go unanswered."
A spokesperson for Abbott, asked about such accusations, wrote, "While partisan activists focus solely on political issues, Governor Abbott is dedicated to delivering results on issues important to Texans," including flood relief.
Chad Wilbanks, a Republican strategist and former Texas GOP executive director, told ABC News, "The Republicans I talk to are very supportive of a mid-decade redistricting." He thinks that the GOP could gain at least three seats thanks to population changes in the state.
Wilbanks dismissed Democrats' claim that the redistricting gambit is politically motivated as "standard politics."
Democrats are going on offense regardless. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of House Democrats, made a verbal commitment to Texas Congressional Democrats to invest six figures to support digital ads and other actions to pressure Republicans over redistricting attempts, a source close to the committee told ABC News. Martin traveled to Texas on Friday at the invitation of state Democrats to strategize on next steps.
"If Texas Republicans want a showdown, we will give them a showdown," Martin said in a statement.