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特朗普第二任期美联储首次降息

2025-09-18 09:17 -ABC  -  365426

  美联储周三下调基准利率0.25个百分点,选择今年首次降息,以重振疲软的劳动力市场。

  美联储推出了唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统长期寻求的政策,尽管降息的幅度几乎肯定没有达到特朗普想要的结果。美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)预计,今年剩余时间内还会再降息25个基点。

  自美联储上次降息以来,已经过了五次会议和九个月。联邦基金利率保持在4%至4.25%之间,保留了疫情时代为应对一轮通胀而大幅上调的大部分利率。

  美联储受到双重任务的指导,既要控制通胀,又要实现就业最大化。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周三在华盛顿特区的新闻发布会上表示,同时出现的招聘放缓和通胀上升给央行的使命带来了压力。

  “当我们的目标处于这样的紧张状态时,这是一个具有挑战性的局面,”鲍威尔说,但他补充说,风险的平衡已经转向对劳动力市场的更大关注。

  “就业增长放缓,就业下行风险上升,”鲍威尔说。

  这份关系重大的声明标志着数月以来的一个热点压力运动特朗普直指美联储。

  最近几周,特朗普在移动解雇美联储理事会的一名成员,并确保参议院对另一名成员的确认。两位官员都有望成为对利率决定投票的12名政策制定者之一,尽管在美联储会议前几天,他们的地位仍不确定。

  本周加入美联储理事会的白宫高级经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰(Stephen Miran)投下了唯一的反对票。Miran投票支持更大幅度的降息0.5个百分点。

  在特朗普数月来指责央行及其主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)拒绝听从他降低利率的呼吁后,重塑美联储的竞赛开始了。周三,鲍威尔表示,美联储仍然“坚定地致力于保持我们的独立性。”

  在周一的一篇社交媒体帖子中,特朗普重申了他对鲍威尔的批评,称美联储主席“现在必须降息,而且幅度要比他想象的大。”

  最近几个月,随着通货膨胀率的上升,美国经济遭遇了招聘大幅放缓,这为经济学家所谓的“衰退”创造了条件滞胀."

  经济状况让美联储的政策制定者陷入了困境。如果美联储将加息作为防范关税引发的通胀的一种手段,就有可能使经济陷入低迷。另一方面,如果美联储在招聘放缓的情况下降低利率来刺激经济,则有可能刺激支出并加剧通胀。

  特朗普最近解雇了董事会成员丽莎·库克(Lisa Cook),后者起诉特朗普试图驱逐她,称该决定违反了她作为独立联邦机构员工的法律保护。特朗普表示,他因对库克的抵押贷款欺诈指控而将其撤职。

  联邦法律允许总统“有理由”罢免美联储董事会成员,尽管在美联储112年的历史中,还没有总统试图这样做。

  上周,一名联邦法官发布了一项初步禁令,要求美联储在库克的诉讼进入法庭期间,让她继续担任美联储系统的州长。

  几天后,特朗普政府向上诉法院提交了一份请求,要求在预定的利率投票之前,在周一之前罢免库克。当天,一家上诉法院驳回了特朗普的出价,为库克在美联储会议上投票扫清了道路。特朗普可能会将该裁决上诉至最高法院。

  上个月,特朗普呼吁库克辞职的同一天,联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特(Bill Pulte)在X上发布了8月15日发给美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪(Pam Bondi)的一封信的部分内容,指控库克伪造银行文件和财产记录,以获得更有利的贷款条款,“可能犯下抵押贷款欺诈,”这封信说。

  在当时提供给美国广播公司新闻的一份声明中,库克说,她从媒体了解到普尔特的信,寻求对抵押贷款申请的刑事转介,这要早于她在美联储的时间。

  “我无意因为一条推文中提出的一些问题而被胁迫下台,”库克上周在声明中说。“作为美联储的一员,我确实打算严肃对待有关我财务历史的任何问题,因此我正在收集准确的信息,以回答任何合理的问题并提供事实。”

  参议院周一以48比47的投票结果确认了白宫经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰(Stephen Miran)担任美联储理事会成员的提名,为米兰投票决定利率铺平了道路。

  Miran有发誓以维护央行的独立性,但本月早些时候表示,他不打算辞去在特朗普政府中的职务。米兰填补了美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒(Adrianna Kugler)提前退休造成的空缺,他的任期将于1月份结束。

  Miran说,他计划从目前的职位上不带薪休假。Miran在本月的一次参议院听证会上表示,由于他在美联储董事会的任期将持续四个月,他是在“听取律师的建议”后做出决定的。

  Fed cuts interest rates for 1st time in Trump's 2nd term

  The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, opting for its first interest rate cut this year in an effort to revive the flagging labor market.

  The central bank delivered a policy long-sought by President Donald Trump, though the size of the rate cut all but certainly fell short of Trump's desired outcome. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a policymaking body at the Fed, projected two additional quarter-point rate cuts over the remainder of the year.

  Five meetings and nine months have elapsed since the Fed last cut interest rates. The federal funds rate stands between 4% and 4.25%, preserving much of a sharp increase imposed in response to a pandemic-era bout of inflation.

  The Fed is guided by a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a simultaneous hiring slowdown alongside an inflation uptick had put stress on both sides of the central bank's mandate.

  "It's a challenging situation when our goals are in tension like this," Powell said, but he added that the balance of risks had shifted toward greater concern over the labor market.

  "Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen," Powell said.

  The high-stakes announcement marks a flashpoint in the monthslongpressure campaigndirected at the Fed by Trump.

  In recent weeks, Trump hasmovedto fire one member of the Fed's board of governors and secure Senate confirmation for another. Both officials were on track to be among the 12 policymakers who cast votes on the interest-rate decision, though their status remained uncertain days before the Fed meeting.

  Stephen Miran, a top White House economic advisor who joined the Fed board this week, cast the lone dissenting vote. Miran voted in favor of a larger half-point rate cut.

  The race to reshape the Fed comes after Trump railed for months against the central bank and its Chair Jerome Powell for declining to heed his call for lower interest rates. On Wednesday, Powell said the Fed remains "strongly committed to maintaining our independence."

  In a social media post on Monday, Trump reiterated his criticism of Powell, saying the Fed chair "MUST CUT INTEREST RATES, NOW, AND BIGGER THAN HE HAD IN MIND."

  In recent months, the economy has suffered a sharp hiring slowdown alongside a rise of inflation, setting the conditions for what economists call "stagflation."

  The economic conditions have put Fed policymakers in a bind. If the Fed raises interest rates as a means of protecting against tariff-induced inflation, it risks tipping the economy into a downturn. On the other hand, if the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy in the face of a hiring slowdown, it threatens to boost spending and worsen inflation.

  Trump recently moved to fire board member Lisa Cook, who sued Trump over her attempted ouster, saying the decision violated her legal protections as an employee at the independent federal agency. Trump said he removed Cook over mortgage fraud allegations against her.

  Federal law allows the president to remove a member of the Fed board "for cause," though no president has attempted such a removal in the 112-year history of the central bank.

  Last week, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction requiring the Fed to let Cook continue serving in her role as a governor of the Federal Reserve System as her lawsuit moves through the courts.

  Days later, the Trump administration filed a request with an appeals court asking to remove Cook by Monday, before the scheduled vote on interest rates. That day, an appeals court rejected Trump's bid, clearing the path for Cook to vote at the Fed meeting. Trump may appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court.

  Last month, Trump called on Cook to resign on the same day that Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, posted on X part of an Aug. 15 letter sent to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi accusing Cook of falsifying bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, "potentially committing mortgage fraud," the letter stated.

  In a statement provided to ABC News at the time, Cook said she learned from the media about Pulte's letter seeking a criminal referral over the mortgage application, which predated her time with the Federal Reserve.

  "I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet," Cook said in the statement last week. "I do intend to take any questions about my financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and so I am gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts."

  The Senate voted 48-47 on Monday to confirm White House economic adviser Stephen Miran's nomination to serve as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, paving the way for Miran to cast a vote on interest rates.

  Miran hasvowedto safeguard central bank independence but said earlier this month that he does not plan to resign from his position within the Trump administration. Miran is filling a vacancy created by the early retirement of Fed board member Adrianna Kugler, whose term was set to end in January.

  Miran said he plans to take an unpaid leave of absence from his current role. Miran reached the decision after "advice from counsel," since his term on the Fed board would last four months, Miran said at a Senate hearing this month.

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