根据国家海洋和大气管理局的冬季展望，今年美国的一些地区预计将面临更冷更多雪的季节，但具体情况将取决于你生活在哪个地区。
美国国家海洋和大气管理局气候预测中心周五发布的季度展望预测，中西部和太平洋西北部的气温可能会低于平均水平，而美国南部和东部的大部分地区将面临比冬季通常预期更温和的气温。
NOAA的冬季展望预测，从12月到2月，美国部分地区的气温和降水将高于、低于或接近平均水平。
《展望》并没有预测几天、几周或一个月内的天气变化，而是预测了整体平均天气情况。
在某个特定的地区，12月可能是典型的冬季。然而，1月和2月仍可能比正常情况下更热，使整个季节的三个月平均气温“高于正常水平”。
另一方面，冬季任何时候都可能出现长时间的寒冷天气，并使整个季节的三个月平均气温“低于正常水平”。这种前景对一个特定地区意味着什么，取决于它周围的典型气候。
就雪而言，冬天是什么样子的?
虽然NOAA的冬季展望没有预测这个季节的降雪，但它为今年冬天的降雪提供了线索。
该展望预测，从12月到2月，太平洋西北部、落基山脉北部、大平原和五大湖的降雨量可能高于平均水平，如果足够冷的条件完全符合，可能会以雪的形式出现。
随着这个季节的降雪依赖于每天发生的风暴，这些地区中的一些可能会以冬季降水的形式出现这些更潮湿的条件。
该国的南半部-从南加州到德克萨斯州的大部分地区，东南部和大西洋中部沿海地区-可能会比冬天的平均水平更干燥。
以前的冬天教会了我们什么
根据环境保护署和美国国家海洋和大气管理局，美国有越来越暖和了自20世纪初以来的每一季。
EPA和NOAA还发现，特别是在邻近的美国，冬季气温升高了大约3华氏度，是四季中最高的。
NOAA报告说2023-24年冬季是最温暖的冬天这是美国130年来的平均水平，美国超过一半的州都经历了有记录以来最热的10个冬天。
过去几个冬天，全国出现了几个异常降雪，包括破纪录的大雪2025年1月下旬，南方发生了致命的干旱，东北部持续了700多天的雪旱，一些人在2024年结束。
气候中心分析发现在全国2000多个地方，近三分之二的地方比20世纪70年代初降雪更少。
是什么塑造了这个冬天的前景?
天气预报员在预测季节趋势时寻求的很大一部分是气候模式，特别是在太平洋。
最有影响的是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)。ENSO是沿着东太平洋赤道水域的温暖、中性和凉爽水域的自然变化。这种自然变化是太平洋大尺度天气模式的最重要的驱动力之一，并最终影响到北美。
气候预测中心的预报员称，自2010年9月以来，ENSO一直处于较冷的模式，或称拉尼娜现象期待它继续下去在冬天的大部分时间里，当春天开始的时候，过渡到一个中性的模式。
这可能会使美国在冬季的大部分时间里处于主导天气模式，使该国的南半部变得更加温暖和干燥，而太平洋西北部到五大湖的地区可能会比平均水平更加凉爽和潮湿。
这可能会使美国在冬季的大部分时间里处于主导天气模式，使该国的南半部变得更加温暖和干燥，而太平洋西北部到五大湖的地区可能会比平均水平更加凉爽和潮湿。
Winter 2025 forecast: What to expect based on where you live in the US
Some parts of the country are expected to face a colder and snowier season this year, but exact conditions will depend on which region you live in, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's winter season outlook.
The seasonal outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, released Friday, predicts that the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest will experience possible cooler-than-average temperatures, while much of the southern and eastern United States will face potentially milder temperatures than what is usually expected during the winter season.
NOAA's winter outlook predicts whether parts of the country will be above, below or near average when it comes to temperatures and precipitation -- from December through February.
The outlook does not forecast weather variations that happen over days, weeks or over one month, but rather what the overall average would likely look like.
December, in a particular region, could feature typical winter conditions. However, January and February could still end up being warmer than normal, swaying the three-month average to "above normal" for the entire season.
On the opposite spectrum, prolonged cold spells could happen anytime during the winter and tip the three-month average to "below normal" for the entire season. What the outlook means for a specific local area depends on the typical climate around it.
What does winter look like in terms of snow?
While NOAA’s winter outlook does not predict snowfall for the season, it offers clues for what this winter could look like in terms of snowfall.
The outlook forecasts above-average precipitation possible for the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, the Great Plains and the Great Lakes from December to February, which could come in the form of snow if cold enough conditions line up perfectly.
With the season’s snowfall dependent on storms that happen on a day-by-day basis, some of these areas could see these wetter conditions in the form of winter precipitation.
The southern half of the country -- from Southern California through much of Texas, the exterior Southeast and the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- will possibly see drier conditions than what is average for winter.
What previous winters have taught us
According to the Environmental Protection Agency and NOAA, the contiguous United States hasbeen getting warmerevery season since the early 1900s.
The EPA and NOAA also found that winters specifically in the contiguous United States have increased by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit -- the most of all four seasons.
NOAA reported that winter 2023-24 was thewarmest winteron average for the country in 130 years, with more than half of all U.S. states seeing their top-10 warmest winters on record.
The last few winters have featured several snow outliers across the country, includingrecord-breaking snowin the south in late January 2025 that turned deadly and a snow drought in the northeast that lasted more than 700 days and ended for some in 2024.
A Climate Centralanalysisfound that for more than 2,000 locations across the country, nearly two-thirds of them are seeing less snow than they did in the early 1970s.
What's shaping this winter outlook?
A big part of what forecasters look for when predicting the seasonal trends are climate patterns, specifically in the Pacific Ocean.
The most influential one is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO is a natural variation of warmer, neutral and cooler waters along the equatorial waters of the eastern Pacific. This natural variation is one of the most significant driving forces of large-scale weather patterns over the Pacific Ocean, and eventually over North America.
Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center say the ENSO has been in the cooler pattern, or La Niña, since September andexpect it to continuefor much of the winter before transitioning into a neutral pattern as spring begins.
This would likely put the U.S. in a dominant weather pattern for much of the winter that keeps the southern half of the country warmer and drier, while the Pacific Northwest out to the Great Lakes will likely be cooler and wetter than average.
This would likely put the U.S. in a dominant weather pattern for much of the winter that keeps the southern half of the country warmer and drier, while the Pacific Northwest out to the Great Lakes will likely be cooler and wetter than average.
