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数十亿美元的灾难数据回归,但这次不是由联邦政府管理

2025-10-23 10:33 -ABC  -  397433

  几十年来,美国国家海洋和大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)十亿美元的灾难数据集用美元来衡量气候变化和恶劣天气事件的成本。了解与天气相关的损害的范围和频率有助于第一反应者、保险业和研究人员进行规划、恢复行动和评估。

  但在5月,特朗普政府宣布关闭托管数据集的网站。这使得公众和专家很难跟踪重大灾害的影响,因为该计划使用了私人和公共数据的组合,其中一些数据不向政府以外的组织提供。

  然而,由科学家和传播者组成的非营利研究组织气候中心周一宣布,它带来了十亿美元的灾难数据集起死回生。而且,它是由科学家亚当·史密斯管理的,他曾经在NOAA管理它,现在是气候中心的高级气候影响科学家。

  “这项耗资十亿美元的灾难分析对于展示极端天气和气候事件的经济影响至关重要,这有助于社区了解气候变化的现实后果以及这些不同事件日益增加的影响,”史密斯说。

  “我还想说,这个数据集太重要了,不能停止更新,”史密斯补充道。“我们已经看到社会和行业的许多方面对其复兴的广泛需求,包括私营部门、学术界、当地社区决策者,甚至国会。”

  史密斯说,气候中心能够复制提供原始NOAA数据集的所有数据源和合作伙伴。

  在网站离线后的几个月里,气候中心记录了美国14起单独的数十亿美元的天气和气候灾害。据估计,总损失超过1010亿美元。

  根据气候中心的数据,在这些事件中,1月份的洛杉矶野火是2025年损失最大的灾难,也是有记录以来损失最大的野火,损失超过600亿美元,几乎是以前记录的两倍。

  “这有助于传递这样一个事实,即气候变化正在增加某些类型的极端事件的频率和严重性,从而导致更多的损失,”史密斯说。

  在气候中心发布公告之前,负责climate.gov的前团队将该网站重新推出为,该网站是一个受欢迎的气候信息网站,在特朗普政府解雇其员工后,该网站于7月停止发布新内容气候.美国在一些非营利组织的帮助下。

  在这些内容中,climate.us现在是第五次国家气候评估这是关于美国气候变化影响的最全面的报告之一。特朗普政府在6月份撤下了这份报告及其附带的网站。

  气候中心表示,其灾难数据集使用与NOAA版本相同的同行评审方法,并打算定期更新信息,甚至扩展未来可用的信息。如果前几年有任何迹象的话,气候变化的代价将会持续增长。

  “在过去的10年里,根据这一分析的保守观点,仅这些价值数十亿美元的灾害就造成了超过1.5万亿美元的直接损失。我要说,这甚至是一项保守的投资,因为我们无法量化环境退化、灾难后与精神和身体保健相关的呼叫,或者灾难后的供应链连锁反应,”史密斯说。

  Billion-dollar disaster data returns, but this time it's not being run by the federal government

  For decades, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's billion-dollar disaster dataset put a dollar figure on the cost of climate change and severe weather events. Understanding the scope and frequency of weather-related damage helped first responders, the insurance industry, and researchers with their planning, recovery operations, and assessments.

  But in May, the Trump administration announced it was shutting down the website that hosted the dataset. That made it difficult for the public and experts to track the impact of major disasters, as the program used a combination of private and public data, some of which was not available to organizations outside the government.

  However, Climate Central, a nonprofit research organization comprised of scientists and communicators, announced on Monday it brought thebillion-dollar disaster datasetback to life. And, it's being run by the very scientist, Adam Smith, who once managed it at NOAA and who is now Climate Central's Senior Climate Impacts Scientist.

  "The billion-dollar disaster analysis is vital in demonstrating the economic impact of extreme weather and climate events, which helps communities understand the real-world consequences of climate change and the increasing impact of these different events," said Smith.

  "I would also say this dataset was simply too important to stop being updated," Smith added. "We've seen a widespread demand for its revival from many aspects of society and industry, including the private sector, academia, local community decision makers, even Congress."

  Smith said Climate Central was able to replicate all the data sources and partnerships that supplied the original NOAA dataset.

  In the months since the website was taken offline, Climate Central has recorded 14 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the United States. It estimates the total damage exceeds $101 billion.

  Among those events, the Los Angeles wildfires in January were the costliest disaster of 2025 and the costliest wildfire on record, with more than $60 billion in damage, nearly double the previous record, according to Climate Central.

  "This kind of helps deliver the fact that climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of some types of extreme events leading to more damages," Smith said.

  The Climate Central announcement comes after the former team responsible for climate.gov, a popular climate information website that stopped publishing new content in July after the Trump administration fired its staff, relaunched the site asclimate.uswith the help of several nonprofits.

  Among the content, climate.us is now hosting theFifth National Climate Assessment, one of the most comprehensive reports on the impacts of climate change in the U.S. The Trump administration took down that report and its accompanying website in June.

  Climate Central said its disaster dataset uses the same peer-reviewed methodologies as the NOAA version and that it intends to regularly update the information, even expanding upon what's available in the future. And if previous years are any indication, the cost of climate change will keep growing.

  "Over the last 10 years, a conservative view of this analysis, these billion-dollar disasters alone have contributed more than $1.5 trillion in total direct losses. And I'd say that's even a conservative investment because we're not able to quantify things like environmental degradation, mental and physical healthcare-related calls after a disaster, or the supply chain ripple effects after a disaster," Smith said.

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