唐纳德·特朗普总统在周末发誓给每个美国人2000美元的红利关税收入。
“每人至少2000美元的股息(不包括高收入人群!)将支付给每个人，”总统周日在社交媒体上写道，部分内容。
然而，几个小时后，财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott Bessent)对该计划表示怀疑，称这笔支出可能只是指特朗普标志性的国内支出措施所体现的税收节省。
贝森特告诉美国广播公司，关税红利可能会“以多种形式”出现本周”周日，他补充说，他没有与特朗普谈论过这个提议。
潜在关税红利的想法令人想起疫情时代的刺激检查，引发了关于谁有资格以及如何理解特朗普政府对该提案的混合信号的问题。一些经济学家质疑用现有的关税基金能否获得红利。
关于拟议中的2000美元关税红利，有以下几点需要了解。
什么是股息?
术语“股息”通常描述由公司利润资助的对个人股东的支付。
在这种情况下，这一概念以类似的方式发挥作用，表明美国人的支出由特朗普深远的关税所提高的税收资助。
该提案反映了疫情时期寄给美国人的三张刺激支票，其中两张得到了特朗普的授权。据美国国家税务总局称，这三笔费用总计为每个报税人3200美元，每个孩子2500美元疫情应对问责委员会由国会设立的监察机构。
特朗普对潜在的2000美元关税红利说了什么?
特朗普周日早上在社交媒体上发布的一条简短消息中宣布了这项政策提案，重点是与关税相关的税收。
“反对关税的人是傻瓜!我们现在是世界上最富有、最受尊敬的国家，几乎没有通货膨胀，股票市场价格创纪录。401k是有史以来最高的总统写道。“每人至少2000美元的股息(不包括高收入人群!)会付给大家。”
该消息没有具体说明谁有资格获得赔付，也没有说明该政策将如何运作。
谁有资格获得2000美元的红利?
尚不清楚谁有资格获得这笔支出，尽管特朗普表示，这项措施将排除“高收入人群”。
川普实施的疫情时代的刺激检查适用于年收入高达75，000美元的个人和年收入高达150，000美元的夫妇。除了这些基准，高收入者有资格获得更少的支付。
去年，美国家庭收入中值为83，730美元人口普查局找到了。
财政部长斯科特·贝森特对股息支票产生了怀疑吗?
特朗普宣布数小时后，Bessent似乎给与关税相关的股息检查的可能性泼了一盆冷水。
周日，Bessent表示，这2000美元的节省可能是源于特朗普此前提出的减税措施一张大而漂亮的钞票他在7月4日签署成为法律。
“我们在总统议程上看到的可能只是减税。小费不征税，加班不征税，社会保障不征税，汽车贷款可抵扣。贝森特对美国广播公司新闻说:“这些都是在税收法案中融资的实质性扣除。”本周“星期天。
“关税的真正目标是重新平衡贸易，使其更加公平，”Bessent补充说。
特朗普和贝桑特的决斗言论是在最高法院听取了辩论关于总统是否拥有单方面征收关税的宪法权力。副检察长约翰·绍尔(John Sauer)代表特朗普政府辩称，该政策中增加收入的部分并不重要，称关税并没有侵犯宪法赋予国会的征税权。
“事实上(关税)增加收入只是附带的，”绍尔告诉法官。
美国的关税收入是否足以支付2000美元的支票?
税收基金会(Tax Foundation)的政策专家艾丽卡·约克(Erica York)在一份报告中说，如果特朗普让收入在10万美元或以下的任何人都可以获得股息支付，这项政策将惠及约1.5亿美国人，相当于大约3000亿美元的股息邮政在x上。
根据美国商务部的数据，截至9月30日，联邦政府已经产生了1950亿美元的关税相关收入财政部.
根据这一计算，股息支票提案的3000亿美元成本将远远超过目前可用的关税收入。
如果只考虑特朗普新税收产生的收入，并从这些政策中扣除一些负面预算影响，约克估计净关税收入仅为900亿美元，甚至低于所需的3000亿美元。
此外，根据最高法院可能如何裁定特朗普征收关税的法律权力，白宫可能被迫向支付税款的进口商返还数百亿美元的收入负责任的联邦预算委员会找到了。
然而，理论上，特朗普政府可以承诺从预期的关税收入中支付红利。财政部预测未来十年的关税收入将达到3万亿美元。如果特朗普政府选择这条路，股息支付将增加联邦债务，目前联邦债务超过38万亿美元。根据财政部的数据.
What to know about Trump's promise of $2,000 tariff dividend payments
President Donald Trump over the weekendvowedto provide each American a $2,000 dividend to be distributed from what he said wastariffrevenue.
"A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone,” the president wrote on social media Sunday, in part.
Within hours, however, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast doubt on the plan, saying the payout could merely refer to tax savings enshrined by Trump's signature domestic spending measure.
A tariff dividend may come "in lots of forms," Bessent told ABC News' "This Week" on Sunday, adding that he had not spoken with Trump about the proposal.
The idea of a potential tariff dividend -- reminiscent of pandemic-era stimulus checks -- has raised questions about who would qualify and what to make of the Trump administration’s mixed signals about the proposal. Some economists questioned whether the dividend is achievable with available tariff funds.
Here's what to know about the proposed $2,000 tariff dividends.
What is a dividend?
The term "dividend" typically describes a payout to individual shareholders, funded by a company's profits.
In this case, the concept functions in a similar fashion, indicating payouts to Americans that are funded by tax raised by Trump's far-reaching tariffs.
The proposal mirrors the three stimulus checks mailed to Americans during the pandemic, two of which were authorized by Trump. Those three payments totaled as much as $3,200 per tax filer, as well as $2,500 per child, according to thePandemic Response Accountability Committee, a watchdog established by Congress.
What did Trump say about a potential $2,000 tariff dividend?
Trump announced the policy proposal in a brief message on social media on Sunday morning, focused on tariff-related tax revenue.
"People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k's are Highest EVER," thepresident wrote. "A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone."
The message did not specify who would qualify for the payout or how the policy would operate.
Who would qualify for the $2,000 dividend?
It is not clear who would qualify for the payout, though Trump said the measure would exclude "high income people."
The pandemic-era stimulus checks enacted by Trump were made available to individuals bringing in as much as $75,000 per year and couples earning up to $150,000. Beyond those benchmarks, higher earners were eligible for smaller payments.
Last year, median U.S. household income was $83,730, theCensus Bureaufound.
Did Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast doubt on the dividend checks?
Hours after Trump's announcement, Bessent appeared to throw cold water on the likelihood of tariff-related dividend checks.
On Sunday, Bessent suggested the $2,000 savings may instead be rooted in tax cuts previously enshrined by Trump'sOne Big Beautiful Billlegislation, which he signed into law on July 4.
"It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president's agenda. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility on auto loans. Those are substantial deductions that are being financed in the tax bill," Bessent told ABC News' "This Week" Sunday.
"The real goal of tariffs is to rebalance trade and make it more fair," Bessent added.
The dueling remarks from Trump and Bessent come days after theSupreme Court heard argumentsabout whether a president has the constitutional authority to unilaterally levy tariffs. Arguing on behalf of the Trump administration, Solicitor General John Sauer downplayed the revenue-raising component of the policy, saying the tariffs do not encroach upon the taxing power afforded to Congress under the Constitution.
"The fact that [the tariffs] raise revenue is only incidental," Sauer told the justices.
Has the U.S. raised enough tariff revenue to fund $2,000 checks?
If Trump were to make the dividend payments available to anyone earning $100,000 or less, the policy would reach about 150 million Americans, amounting to roughly $300 billion in dividends, Erica York, a policy expert at the Tax Foundation, said in aposton X.
As of Sept. 30, the federal government had generated $195 billion in tariff-related revenue, according to theTreasury Department.
By that math, the estimated $300 billion cost of the dividend check proposal would far exceed the amount of currently available tariff revenue.
When factoring in only revenue generated by Trump's new levies and deducting some negative budgetary impact from those policies, York estimated net tariff revenues of only $90 billion, falling even shorter of the $300 billion required.
Moreover, depending on how the Supreme Court may rule regarding Trump's legal authority to levy tariffs, the White House may be forced to return tens of billions of dollars in revenue to importers who paid the tax, theCommittee for a Responsible Federal Budgetfound.
In theory, however, the Trump administration could promise to pay the dividend from anticipated tariff revenue. The Treasury Department has forecast $3 trillion in tariff revenue over the next decade. Should the Trump administration choose that route, the dividend payments would add to the federal debt, which currently stands at over $38 trillion,according to the Treasury Department.
