唐纳德·特朗普总统上周宣布“全面封锁进出委内瑞拉的所有受制裁油轮”，加大了对尼古拉斯·马杜罗政权的压力，因为15，000名美国士兵和11艘军舰在附近海域待命-并留下了明显升级的范围问题。
根据国际法，海上封锁被视为战争行为。但特朗普对“受制裁”油轮的提及表明，美国海岸警卫队的执法打击行动将继续进行，美国海岸警卫队上周在委内瑞拉海岸扣押了一艘油轮，周末又扣押了一艘油轮。
海岸警卫队的封锁不是军事行动;这是法院授权执行的美国制裁。
前国务院官员、美国广播公司新闻撰稿人、已退休的海军陆战队上校史蒂夫·甘亚德(Steve Ganyard)表示，总统在其社交媒体平台上宣布的命令相当于法律隔离，而不是封锁，因为该帖子仅指法律认可的油轮。
但特朗普也将委内瑞拉政权称为外国恐怖组织(FTO)，这可能会牵连任何进入委内瑞拉水域的油轮。
目前尚不清楚政府如何将政府定性为恐怖分子，也不清楚特朗普是否指的是卡特尔·德洛斯·索尔(Cartel de los Soles)，政府将该组织定性为恐怖组织，并表示该组织由马杜罗领导。
隔离或封锁会有什么影响?
战略与国际研究中心高级研究员克莱顿·塞格尔说，特朗普上周的帖子“留下的问题比答案多”。“我们到底要做什么?我们要怎么做?”
“这些都不是很详细，”他说。
赛格尔说，升级的压力是针对受制裁的船只还是所有船只仍是一个开放的问题，但这两种方法都将影响马杜罗。
“如果你切断所有的石油出口，以及相关的收入——这是一个很大的假设——那么我认为在几周内，加拉加斯的政权将面临极大的压力，”他说。
如果美国继续只针对受制裁的油轮，“那么我认为这可能是该政权试图解决问题、找到妥协、甚至计划故意退出的更长的跑道。”
美国表示，自去年9月以来，美国对涉嫌走私毒品的船只进行了25次袭击，造成100多人死亡。
专家指出，约翰·肯尼迪总统1962年对古巴的隔离与特朗普的做法类似——未知的可能性带来了风险。
“如果船不停下来怎么办?这就是古巴导弹危机中的争论，”赛格尔说。“如果他们靠边停车，让(他们自己)上车，那就太好玩了。”
“如果他们不呢?你在开火吗?你在沉船吗?”
然而，塞格尔说，宣布的封锁“看起来像是一次风险相对较低的军事行动”，旨在“防止”这样的“泥潭”。
“因为如果进展顺利，他们能够切断马杜罗的大量石油收入，那么他们就有合理的机会获得他们想要的政治结果，即马杜罗逃离。”
然而，特朗普周三在被问及是否寻求委内瑞拉政权更迭时不愿置评。相反，他重复了一个他所说的阻止油轮的前提。
“你记得，他们拿走了我们所有的能源权，”他在谈到委内瑞拉时说。“他们不久前拿走了我们所有的石油，我们想要回来。但是他们拿走了。他们非法拿走了。”
特朗普没有具体说明委内瑞拉政府在哪个时期进行的国有化在他看来伤害了美国。
一;一个国际仲裁法院2013年，委内瑞拉下令向美国康菲石油公司公司支付87亿美元，惩罚委内瑞拉在2007年征用原油资产，委内瑞拉认为这是非法的。
在暗处行动
美国已经制裁了世界各地的数百艘油轮，称这些油轮是通常被称为“影子舰队”的非法网络的一部分。
根据Seigle的说法，其中27艘指定油轮正在委内瑞拉水域作业。
他补充说，委内瑞拉、俄罗斯和伊朗“分享受制裁的船队”，委内瑞拉的份额是三个国家中最小的。
Seigle说，中国进口的石油有整整四分之一是由这些受制裁的国家生产的，这使该国感到“极大的担忧”
他表示:“这将引起人们的关注，可能还会引起负责确保他们拥有足够石油的战略规划者的担忧。”。
根据Seigle的说法，受制裁的油轮占委内瑞拉出口石油的不到五分之一。
“但我认为，这可能在一些重要领域产生巨大影响，包括马杜罗是否能在加拉加斯保持领导地位以及能保持多久，以及委内瑞拉最大的石油客户中国。”
为什么称马杜罗政权为恐怖分子?
作为特朗普在社交媒体上发表的长篇帖子的一部分，总统还表示，“委内瑞拉政权”是一个FTO，国务院在11月将其指定为FTO。
特朗普和包括国务卿马尔科·卢比奥在内的国家官员一再表示，马杜罗是一名毒品恐怖分子，是一个毒品恐怖组织的头目，并补充说马杜罗不是委内瑞拉的合法领导人。
当特朗普在他的帖子中指向“委内瑞拉政权”时，他可能指的是卡特尔德洛斯索尔的名称。
美国国务院在其指认中称，马杜罗和其他高级官员领导着卡特尔德洛斯索利斯(Cartel de los Soles)，并“腐蚀了委内瑞拉的军事、情报、立法和司法部门”。
马杜罗政府断然否认卡特尔的存在。
国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯(Pete Hegseth)去年11月表示，将马杜罗定性为恐怖分子，让美国在打击贩运人口行动和对委内瑞拉总统的公开施压行动中有更多的军事选择。
Hegseth说，FTO的指定“给美国带来了一系列新的选择”。“它为我们的部门提供了更多的工具，以便向总统提供选择。”
法律专家告诉美国广播公司，这种指定本身并不构成武力授权。但政府官员在披露对涉嫌贩毒者的打击时，一直公开指出这些名称。
值得注意的是，虽然马杜罗政权被视为外国恐怖组织，但委内瑞拉尚未被列入官方的“支持恐怖主义国家”名单。
目前只有伊朗、朝鲜、叙利亚和古巴被列为支持恐怖主义的国家。
Trump blockades oil tankers near Venezuela -- what does that mean?
President Donald Trump last week announced a "complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela," ratcheting up the pressure on Nicolás Maduro's regime as 15,000 U.S. troops and 11 warships stand ready in nearby waters --and leaving questions over the scope of the apparent escalation.
A naval blockade is considered an act of war under international law. But Trump's reference to "sanctioned" tankers indicated U.S. operations would continue as a law enforcement crackdown by the U.S. Coast Guard, which seized an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast last week and another over the weekend.
A Coast Guard interdiction is not a military operation; it is a court-authorized enforcement of U.S. sanctions.
According to retired Marine Corps Col. Steve Ganyard, a former State Department official and an ABC News contributor, the president's orders, announced on his social media platform, amount to a legal quarantine -- and not a blockade -- because the post references only legally sanctioned tankers.
But Trump also referred to the Venezuelan regime as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), which could implicate any oil tanker that enters Venezuelan waters.
It wasn't clear how the administration could designate the government as terrorists -- or whether Trump was making reference to Cartel de los Soles, which the administration designated as a terror organization and has said is headed by Maduro.
What impact could a quarantine or blockade have?
Trump's post last week "leaves more questions than answers," said Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "What exactly are we going to do? How are we going to do it?"
"None of that is really detailed," he said.
Whether the escalated pressure will target sanctioned vessels -- or all vessels -- remains an open question, but both approaches would impact Maduro, Seigle said.
"If you cut off all oil exports, and the associated revenues -- and that's a big if --then I think in a matter of weeks, the regime in Caracas would face extreme pressure," he said.
If the U.S. continues to target only sanctioned tankers, "then I think that it could be a more prolonged runway for the regime to try to work something out, find a compromise, or even plan a deliberate exit."
The U.S. says it has killed more than 100 people in the 25 strikes it says it has carried out on alleged drug smuggling boats since September.
Experts have pointed to President John F. Kennedy's quarantine of Cuba in 1962 as an analogue to Trump's approach -- with unknown possibilities inviting risk.
"What if a ship doesn't stop? This was the debate in the Cuban Missile Crisis," Seigle said. "It's all fun and games if they pull over and let [themselves] get boarded."
"What if they don't? Are you opening fire? Are you sinking ships?"
The announced blockade, though, "looks like it's a relatively low-risk military operation" designed "to prevent" such a "quagmire," Seigle said.
"Because if it goes smoothly and they're able to cut off a lot of Maduro's oil revenue, then they have a reasonable chance of getting the political outcome that they want, which is Maduro fleeing."
Yet Trump on Wednesday wouldn't offer a comment when asked if he sought regime change in Venezuela. Instead, he repeated a claim he said was a premise for blocking tankers.
"You remember, they took all of our energy rights," he said of Venezuela. "They took all of our oil from not that long ago, and we want it back. But they took it. They illegally took it."
Trump did not specify which period of nationalizations undertaken by the Venezuelan governments aggrieved the U.S. in his view.
Aninternational arbitration courtin 2013 ordered Caracas to pay $8.7 billion to U.S. firm ConocoPhillips, penalizing Venezuela for expropriation of crude assets in 2007 which it found to be unlawful.
Operating in the shadows
The U.S. has sanctioned hundreds of oil tankers around the world which it says are part of an illicit network often called the "shadow fleet."
27 of those designated tankers are operating in Venezuelan waters, according to Seigle.
Venezuela, Russia, and Iran "share that sanctioned fleet," he added, and Venezuela's slice is the smallest of the three.
A full quarter of China's oil imports are produced by those sanctioned countries, Seigle said, leaving the country with "an outsized concern."
"This is going to raise eyebrows and maybe raise concerns in Beijing among strategic planners that are responsible for making sure that they have enough oil," he said.
Sanctioned tankers represent less than a fifth of the oil exported from Venezuela, according to Seigle.
"But I think it can have outsized effects in a number of important areas, including whether and for how long Maduro can hold out in a leadership position in Caracas, and also with regard to Venezuela's biggest oil customer, which is China."
Why call Maduro's regime terrorists?
As a part of Trump's lengthy post on social media, the president also said the "Venezuelan regime" was an FTO, which the State Department designated it as in November.
Trump and State officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have repeatedly said Maduro is a narco-terrorist and the head of a narco-terrorist organization, adding that Maduro is not the legitimate leader of Venezuela.
Trump is likely referring to the designation of the Cartel de los Soles when he points to the "Venezuelan Regime" in his post.
The State Department alleges in its designation that Maduro and other high-ranking officials head the Cartel de los Soles and have "corrupted Venezuela's military, intelligence, legislature, and judiciary."
Maduro's government categorically denies the existence of the cartel.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said in November that the designation of Maduro as a terrorist gives the U.S. more military options in its anti-trafficking operation and public pressure campaign on the Venezuelan president.
The FTO designation "brings a whole bunch of new options to the United States," Hegseth said. "It gives more tools to our department to give options to the president."
Legal experts have told ABC that the designation does not in itself constitute an authorization of force. But administration officials have consistently pointed to these designations publicly when disclosing strikes on alleged drug traffickers.
Notably, while the Maduro regime has been targeted as a foreign terrorist organization, the country of Venezuela has not yet been placed on the official "State Sponsor of Terrorism" list.
Only Iran, North Korea, Syria and Cuba are currently listed as state sponsors of terrorism.
