摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家在周一的一份报告中表示，如果唐纳德·特朗普总统对来自中国的额外3000亿美元进口商品实施25%的关税威胁，他与中国的贸易战可能会在9个月内将全球经济拖入衰退。
特朗普上周威胁要升级他与中国的长期贸易战，这场贸易战导致对2500亿美元的进口商品征收25%的关税。总统说，他将在9月1日对另外3000亿美元的中国进口商品征收关税，最初的税率为10%。他说关税率可能会上升到25%。这一威胁发生在全球两大经济体就政策分歧正在进行的贸易谈判中，令全球市场陷入混乱。
在贸易紧张导致的不确定性中，全球增长正在放缓。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的报告称，特朗普的关税声明“显著增加了下行风险”。
“如果美国在4-6个月内对所有从中国进口的商品征收25%的关税，而中国采取应对措施，我们相信，全球经济将在三个季度内进入衰退。”该报告称，该报告估计，如果实施新关税，中国采取对策，到2019年底，全球经济增长将降至7年来的最低水平。
新一轮关税将对消费者造成沉重打击。前几轮旨在豁免消费品，但零售项目如iPhones，玩具和衣服将包括在内，如果新的关税到位。
摩根士丹利在声明中表示，如果征收新的进口税，大约三分之二的关税项目是消费品。牛津经济学告诉我们新闻周刊如果关税以25%的税率执行，平均每个美国家庭每年将支付900美元。
特朗普周六表示，尽管贸易战对经济的影响越来越难以忽视，但贸易战“进展非常顺利”。美国第四季度国内生产总值增长了2.1%，比今年前三个月整整下降了1%。制造业活动上月也降至接近三年低点的水平。
中国以对美国进口商品征收关税作为回应，进一步加剧了贸易战的代价。周一，人民币兑美元汇率跌幅超过7:1，10多年来首次跌破这一象征性门槛。
财政部长史蒂文Mnuchin已警告中国不要操纵人民币，政府担心这会给中国出口商带来不公平的优势。人民币贬值引起特朗普的快速反应，他在推特上说，“中国一直在利用汇率操纵窃取我们的企业和工厂，伤害我们的工作，压低我们工人的工资，伤害我们农民的价格。不再是了！”
人民币贬值后，全球股票迅速下跌。道琼斯指数下跌了1.8%。法国的CAC40下降了1.79%，英国的金融时报下跌2.4%。
TRUMP'S THREATENED TARIFFS COULD CAUSE RECESSION IN 9 MONTHS IF IMPLEMENTED, MORGAN STANLEY WARNS
President Donald Trump's trade war with China could drive the global economy into recession in nine months if he implements threatened 25 percent tariffs on an additional $300 billion of imports from China, Morgan Stanley economists said in a Monday note.
Trump threatened last week to escalate his long-running trade war with China, which has resulted in 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of imports. The president said he would impose tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports on September 1, initially starting the tariff at 10 percent. He said the tariff rate could rise to 25 percent. The threat, which came amid ongoing trade talks over policy differences between the world's two largest economies, sent global markets into a tailspin.
Amid uncertainty caused by trade tensions, global growth is slowing. Trump's tariff announcements "raise downside risks significantly," the Morgan Stanley note said.
"If the U.S. were to implement 25% tariffs on all imports from China for 4-6 months and China were to respond with countermeasures, we believe we would see the global economy entering recession in three quarters," said the note, which estimated that global growth would fall to a 7-year low by the end of 2019 if the new tariffs are implemented and China responds with countermeasures.
The new round of tariffs would hit consumers hard. Previous rounds were intended to exempt consumer products, but retail items like iPhones, toys and clothes will be included if new tariffs are put in place.
Morgan Stanley said in its note that about two-thirds of items subject to tariff if new import duties are levied are consumer products. Oxford Economics told Newsweek that if the tariffs are implemented at 25 percent, the average American household would be paying $900 per year.
Trump said on Saturday that the trade war is "going along very well" even as evidence of its impact on the economy is becoming harder to ignore. U.S. GDP rose 2.1 percent last quarter, a full percent drop from the first three months of the year. Manufacturing activity also slowed to a level close to a three-year low last month.
China has responded with its own tariffs on U.S. imports, further exacerbating the trade war's toll. The country's currency weakened more than the seven-to-one-dollar ratio on Monday, falling below that symbolic threshold for the first time in more than 10 years.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has warned China against manipulating its currency, which the administration worries will provide an unfair advantage to Chinese exporters. The renminbi's drop in value evoked a quick response from Trump, who tweeted that "China has always used currency manipulation to steal our businesses and factories, hurt our jobs, depress our workers' wages and harm our farmers' prices. Not anymore!"
Global stock markets quickly fell after the value of the yuan decreased. The Dow Jones dropped 1.8 percent. France's CAC 40 declined 1.79 percent, and the United Kingdom's FTSE fell 2.4 percent.
