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前美联储主席警告特朗普,混合政治和货币政策损害了美国经济

2019-08-07 15:25  美国新闻网  -  3676

 

       周一晚上,四位美联储前主席保罗·沃尔克、艾伦·格林斯潘、本·伯南克和珍妮特·耶伦在一篇措辞严厉(好吧,对美联储前主席措辞严厉,对我们其他人不温不火)的观点文章中写道,政治和货币政策需要分开。

       评论发表之际,中国正允许人民币贬值,以回应唐纳德·特朗普总统与北京的贸易战。估值下降导致美国市场周一和美国国债收益率大幅下跌。特朗普一直在寻找让央行参与关税战的反击方式。今年7月,他曾考虑要求美联储让美元贬值,但最终决定反对。然而,周一,他向独立机构施压,要求下调利率。

       特朗普在推特上写道:“中国将人民币汇率降至历史最低水平。”。“这叫做‘汇率操纵’你在听美联储吗?随着时间的推移,这是一个严重的违规行为,将极大地削弱中国!"

       上周,美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔十年来首次降息,以此来帮助经济度过这场贸易战,但总统似乎想要更多。

       过去,特朗普一直很快批评美联储。“像往常一样,鲍威尔让我们失望了,”总统上个月底在推特上说。不管怎样,我们赢了,但我肯定没有从美联储得到多少帮助!"

Trump and Powell
在白宫玫瑰园举行的新闻发布会上,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正看着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔走上讲台。

       7月下旬,当国内生产总值没有达到特朗普预期的3%时,他指责美联储。“国内生产总值增长了2.1%,考虑到美联储的强力支持,这还不错。几乎没有通货膨胀,”他写道。

       前美联储主席没有点名特朗普总统,但他显然是警告的目标,即央行屈从于短期政治影响是不明智的。

       他们写道:“然而,国内外的历史一再表明,当央行独立于短期政治压力、仅依赖稳健的经济原则和数据时,经济才会最强劲、运行最佳。”。

       该组织表示,这些控制货币政策的尝试可能会给经济带来暂时的反弹(以及政客的青睐),但最终将导致“长期经济表现更差,包括通胀加剧和增长放缓”。

       他们写道,即使美联储只是被认为受当时政治的影响,不稳定的金融市场和更糟糕的经济结果仍然比比皆是。

       “选举有结果,”意见稿说。"这当然适用于美联储以及其他政府机构."当现任主席鲍威尔的四年任期结束时,总统将有机会再次提名他或者为这个角色寻找一个新的人选。

       前主席写道:“我们希望,当做出决定时,选择将基于潜在候选人的能力和正直,而不是政治忠诚或激进主义。”。
 

FORMER FED CHAIRS WARN TRUMP THAT MIXING POLITICS AND MONETARY POLICY HURTS U.S. ECONOMY


       In an unprecedented move, four former Federal Reserve Bank Chairs, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, wrote in a scathing (okay, scathing for former Fed chairs, tepid for the rest of us) opinion piece Monday night that politics and monetary policy need to be kept separate.

       The commentary comes just as China allowed its currency to weaken in response to President Donald Trump's trade wars with Beijing. The drop in valuation led to a steep fall in U.S. markets Monday and in U.S. treasury yields. Trump has been looking for ways to fight back by involving the Central Bank in his tariff wars. In July, he considered asking the Fed to devalue U.S. currency but ultimately decided against it. On Monday, however, he pressured the independent body to cut interest rates.

       "China dropped the price of their currency to an almost a historic low," Trump wrote on Twitter. "It's called 'currency manipulation.' Are you listening Federal Reserve? This is a major violation which will greatly weaken China over time!"

       Last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell cut interest rates for the first time in a decade as a way to aid the economy through these trade wars, but the president seems to want more.

       In the past, Trump has been quick to criticize the Federal Reserve. "As usual, Powell let us down," the president tweeted late last month. We are winning anyway, but I am certainly not getting much help from the Federal Reserve!"

Trump and Powell
U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell takes to the podium during a press event in the Rose Garden at the White House.

       When GDP didn't grow by Trump's desired 3 percent in late July, he blamed the Fed. "GDP Up 2.1% Not bad considering we have the very heavy weight of the Federal Reserve anchor wrapped around our neck. Almost no inflation," he wrote.

       The group of former Fed Chairs didn't call out President Trump by name, but he was clearly the target of the warning that it would be unwise for the Central Bank to succumb to short term political influence.

       "History, both here and abroad, has shown repeatedly, however, that an economy is strongest and functions best when the central bank acts independently of short-term political pressures and relies solely on sound economic principles and data," they wrote.

       These attempts to control monetary policy might give a temporary bounce to the economy (and to a politician's favorability), said the group, but will ultimately end in "worse economic performance in the long run, including higher inflation and slower growth."

       Even if the Fed is simply perceived to be influenced by the politics of the day, they wrote, unstable financial markets and worse economic outcomes abound.

       "Elections have consequences," said the opinion pieces. "That certainly applies to the Federal Reserve as well as to other government agencies." When current chair Powell's four-year term ends, the president will have the opportunity to nominate him once more or seek out a new person for the role.

       "We hope that when that decision is made, the choice will be based on the prospective nominee's competence and integrity, not on political allegiance or activism," wrote the former chairs.

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