备受关注的债券市场指标的变化可能预示着衰退，这引起了华尔街分析师的担忧，但收益率曲线反转可能并不意味着经济衰退即将来临。
衡量不同到期日债券收益率的收益率曲线，在过去40年的每次衰退前都会反转。通常，短期债券给投资者带来较低的收益率，因为它们带来的风险较小。
但本周，三个月期美国国债收益率升至10年期美国国债收益率之上，交易缺口比3月份以来任何时候都大2007。周五，10年期国债收益率跌至1.7%以下，两年期国债收益率高达1.64%。
尽管分析师正在密切关注债券利率，而反转曲线已经引发了一系列不祥的新闻报道，但反转收益率曲线并不一定意味着衰退即将来临。
“当我们看经济预测时，我们看不到衰退即将来临，”萨姆说烟囱金融研究公司的首席投资策略师CFRA讲述新闻周刊。“虽然我们有七条平坦到反转的收益率曲线，但这七条曲线都导致了降息周期。但只有四次导致衰退，”他说，指的是10年期和2年期美国国债。
收益率曲线反转伴随着唐纳德·特朗普总统上周对华贸易战升级引发的其他经济波动。特朗普宣布打算对北京征收额外关税后，美国股市暴跌，股市创下2019年最糟糕的一天和一周。无力的商业投资和上个季度国内生产总值增长的百分之一整的下降提供了担心经济衰退的其他原因。
但是其他迹象表明，美国并没有进入衰退的边缘。根据行动经济学，美国国内生产总值预计将在未来两个季度增长。该公司预计，尽管全球贸易动荡，美国第三季度国内生产总值将增长2.3%，第四季度将增长2.5%。
消费者感情也很强劲，尽管全球贸易存在不确定性。上月的读数为98.4，比上年增长0.2%，同比增长0.5%。消费者支出占美国经济活动的三分之二以上，信心水平下降会对经济造成严重打击。
自1960年以来，经济衰退之前，新屋开工数量也出现了两位数的同比下降。尽管从5月到6月下降了0.9%，但房屋开工量却上升了6.2%百分比年复一年，截至最新读数。
“金融市场的波动与关税新闻以及报道的数据不相称，”迈克尔说Englund行动经济学的首席经济学家告诉记者新闻周刊。
然而，即使市场反应过度，经济衰退不会迫在眉睫，衰退也无法永久避免。
股票市场是一个领先的指标，而且烟囱讲述新闻周刊市场倾向于提前六到九个月预测衰退。显示经济健康状况的指标可能会迅速改变。
经济学家显然担心美中贸易战的潜在影响，这场贸易战的升级增加了对未来两年全球经济衰退的预测。
路透社投票本周进行的调查发现，经济学家给出了未来24个月衰退概率的中位数为45%，比7月份上升了10个百分点。在回答另外一个问题的经济学家中，近70%的人表示，最近的贸易战升级让下一次美国衰退更加逼近。
尽管如此，尽管贸易战和美中贸易的重大转变，美国贸易证明是有弹性的。根据一项行动经济学分析，截至5月，美国进出口在过去两年平均增长了4%。最近对年度增长预测的预测显示，2019年进出口都将远低于4%，但会再次上升。
KEY BOND MARKET INDICATOR SPARKS FEAR OF RECESSION, BUT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN MIGHT NOT BE IMPENDING
Changes to a closely-watched bond market indicator that can signal recession has provoked concern among Wall Street analysts, but the inverted yield curve may not mean an economic downturn is impending.
The yield curve, which measures the yields rates on bonds with different maturity dates, has inverted prior to every recession in the last 40 years. Typically, short-term bonds provide investors lower yields because they present less risk.
But the yield rate on three-month bonds rose above the yield rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds this week, trading with a gap larger than any since March 2007. Yields on the 10-year bond fell below 1.7 percent on Friday, and the 2-year bond had a yield as high as 1.64 percent.
While analysts are watching bond rates closely, and the inverted curve has provoked a flurry of ominous news articles, an inverted yield curve doesn't necessarily mean that a recession is looming.
"When we look at economic projections, we don't see a recession on the horizon," Sam Stovall, the Chief Investment Strategist at financial research firm CFRA told Newsweek. "While we have had seven flat to inverted yield curves, all seven have led to rate cutting cycles. But only four led to recessions," he said, referring to 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds.
The inverted yield curve accompanied other economic volatility ushered in by President Donald Trump's escalation America's trade war with China last week. U.S. stock markets plummeted after Trump announced his intention to levy additional tariffs against Beijing, with stocks registering their worst day and week of 2019. Weak business investment and a full percent decrease in GDP growth last quarter have provided other reasons to be worried about economic downturn.
But other signs indicate that the U.S. is not on the verge of entering a recession. U.S. GDP is expected to grow in the next two quarters, according to Action Economics. The company projects that U.S. GDP will grow 2.3 percent in the third quarter of the year and 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, in spite of global trade volatility.
Consumer sentiment is also strong, in spite of global trade uncertainty. Last month's reading registered at 98.4, a 0.2 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.5 percent year-over-year increase. With consumer spending accounting for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, flagging confidence levels can hit the economy hard.
Since 1960, recessions have also been preceded by double-digit year-over-year decreases in housing starts, the number of new privately owned housing units started. Despite decreasing 0.9 percent from May to June, housing starts are up 6.2 percent year-over-year, as of the latest reading.
"The financial market gyrations have been disproportionate to the tariff news but also to the reported data," Michael Englund, the chief economist for Action Economics, told Newsweek.
Yet even if markets over-reacting and economic downturn isn't imminent, a recession can't be permanently avoided.
Stock markets are a leading indicator, and Stovall told Newsweek that the market tends to anticipate recessions between six and nine months in advance. Metrics appearing to indicate economic health could quickly change.
Economists are clearly concerned about the potential impact of the U.S.-China trade war and its escalation increased predictions that global recession will come next two years.
A Reuters poll conducted this week found economists gave a median 45 percent probability of recession in the next 24 months, a 10 percentage point increase from July. Among economists who responded to an additional question, almost 70 percent said that the recent trade war escalation brought the next U.S. recession closer.
Even so, in spite of the trade war and significant shifts in U.S.-China trade, U.S. trade has proved resilient. As of May, U.S. imports and exports have both averaged 4 percent growth over the last two years, according to an Action Economics analysis. More recent predictions for annual growth projections showed both imports and exports for 2019 would come in far below the 4 percent level but rise again.