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众议院特别选举测量特朗普之后的政治脉搏

2021-05-30 11:36   美国新闻网   - 

新墨西哥州圣达菲——一个特殊的国会选举在总统以来为数不多的众议院竞选活动中,检查阿尔布开克大都会区和一些偏远农村社区的政治脉搏乔·拜登就职。

在黛比·哈兰德被确认为美国内政部部长后,星期二的国会选举将有四名候选人。经过数周的提前投票,投票站在周日和周一关闭,然后在选举日重新开放,允许当天登记。

近年来,新墨西哥第一国会选区极力支持民主党候选人,避开总统唐纳德·特朗普2020年差距为23个百分点,随着选民参与率达到历史最高水平,哈兰德以16个百分点的优势再次当选。

这些优势对民主党候选人和第二任期的州众议员梅兰妮·斯坦斯伯里来说是个好兆头,因为她要面对共和党参议员马克·穆雷斯。共和党人希望在2022年中期选举之前侵蚀民主党在美国众议院219票对211票的多数席位。

土地使用和水政策顾问斯坦斯伯里(Stansbury)接受了拜登的核心议程,即大流行后的经济复苏、免费普及学前教育和基础设施支出,这些支出将使能源和交通部门现代化,以应对全球变暖。在最近的辩论中,她支持15美元的国家最低工资,改革以解决警察不当行为和系统性种族主义,以及对移民采取更人道的方法。

穆雷斯强调,需要在美国与墨西哥边境实施积极的禁毒和移民执法,并在联邦土地上不间断地租赁石油,这是新墨西哥重要的就业来源。他的竞选活动将对公共安全和犯罪的担忧作为核心问题,支持为新墨西哥州所需的警察机构摄像头提供更多联邦资金,并对警察表示支持。

特朗普在2020年对犯罪采取的强硬态度在阿尔布开克地区的选民中没有受到欢迎,因为他派了联邦特工来加强当地的执法努力。尽管如此,犯罪仍然是这个城市的一个问题。

在一个自由主义政治潮流强劲的州,另外两名候选人正在争夺不受约束的选民。

独立候选人小奥布里·邓恩(Aubrey Dunn Jr .)是一名前共和党人,他当选为全州范围的土地专员,但在2018年没有寻求连任。他自称是枪支权利的坚定捍卫者,也是公共土地的经验丰富的管理者。自由意志派提名人克里斯·曼宁住在远离法明顿第一区的地方,他正在一项非正统的计划上进行竞选活动卫生保健通过消除基于雇主的保险范围和保险要求来降低成本。

空缺选举投票率低的可能性增加了一种不确定性——以及共和党人的一种罕见的机会感,他们占第一国会选区登记选民的31%。

投票区包括阿尔布开克、托兰斯县农村和其他外围地区,包括桑迪亚普韦布洛土著社区。

截至周五,注册民主党人在早期投票中占主导地位,投票数量约为注册共和党人的两倍。

新墨西哥大学的政治学教授Lonna Atkeson指出,两个主要政党的候选人都深入研究了攻击性广告和负面竞选——这表明两个竞选团队都不自信。

“没有人有足够的信心以积极的方式度过难关。所以他们都感到有点压力,”阿特克森说。"我的意思是,我们从未见过黛比·哈兰德做负面广告."

民主党全国委员会周四将副总统卡玛拉•哈里斯的丈夫道格·埃姆霍夫带到新墨西哥,代表斯坦斯伯里竞选。在与工会和其他支持者的集会上,埃姆霍夫承认民主党在国会中的微弱优势,并表示选举斯坦斯伯里将有助于确保该党的立法倡议提交给总统。

穆雷斯曾多次试图将斯坦斯伯里与“黑人生活运动”提出的所谓“呼吸法案”联系起来,该法案将从传统的警察机构中剥离纳税人的支出,并投资于公共安全的替代方法。他说斯坦斯伯里在2019年投票赞成一项法案,该法案使她的咨询客户受益。

斯坦斯伯里说,她支持执法部门在州立法机构协调警察基础设施和倡议的支出。她抨击穆雷斯反对一些大流行救援措施,同时接受180万美元的联邦医疗检测援助。

穆雷斯经常援引可追溯到该地区西班牙殖民时代的拉丁裔家庭关系,在这个州,西班牙裔的自豪感是政治的一个永恒主题。

阿特克森认为这是穆雷斯为了赢得社会保守的拉丁裔人的公开支持,否则他们可能会投民主党的票。

自2009年以来,第一国会选区一直由民主党控制。

这个席位一直是共和党和民主党政治家获得更高职位的敲门砖,包括现已去世的内政部长小曼努埃尔·卢汉(Manuel Lujan Jr)、前美国空军部长希瑟·威尔逊(Heather Wilson)、美国参议员马丁·海因里希(Martin Heinrich)和州长米歇尔·卢汉·格里沙姆(Michelle Lujan Grisham)。

Special House election measures political pulse after Trump

SANTA FE, N.M. -- A special congressionalelectionis checking the political pulse of politics across the Albuquerque metro area and a few outlying rural communities in one of the few House campaigns since PresidentJoe Bidentook office.

Four names are on the ballot in Tuesday's election to succeed Deb Haaland in Congress after her confirmation as secretary of the U.S. Interior Department. After weeks of early voting, polling locations are closed on Sunday and Monday before reopening on Election Day with allowances for same-day registration.

New Mexico's 1st Congressional District has heavily favored Democratic candidates in recent years, shunning PresidentDonald Trumpwith a gap of 23 percentage points in 2020 and reelecting Haaland with a margin of 16 percentage points as voter participation reached an all-time high.

Those margins bode well for Democratic nominee and second-term state Rep. Melanie Stansbury, as she confronts Republican state Sen. Mark Moores. Republicans hope to erode the 219-211 Democratic majority in the U.S. House of Representatives ahead of midterm elections in 2022.

Stansbury, a consultant on land use and water policy, has embraced Biden’s core agenda for post-pandemic economic recovery, free universal preschool and infrastructure spending that modernizes energy and transportation sectors to address global warming. In recent debates, she has endorsed a $15 national minimum wage, reforms to address police misconduct and systemic racism, and a more humanitarian approach to immigration.

Moores has emphasized the need for aggressive drug interdiction and immigration enforcement along the U.S. border with Mexico and uninterrupted oil leasing on federal land as a crucial source of employment in New Mexico. His campaign has seized on concerns about public safety and crime as a core issue, backing more federal dollars for police body cameras that are required in New Mexico and voicing support for police officers.

A hardline approach to crime by Trump in 2020 fell flat with Albuquerque-area voters after he sent federal agents to bolster local law enforcement efforts. Still, crime remains an issue for the city.

Two additional candidates are vying for untethered voters in a state with strong currents of libertarian politics.

Independent contender Aubrey Dunn Jr., a former Republican elected to statewide office as land commissioner who didn't seek reelection in 2018, has cast himself as a staunch defender of gun rights and an experienced steward of public lands. Libertarian nominee Chris Manning, who lives far outside the 1st District in Farmington, is campaigning on an unorthodox plan to reducehealth carecosts by eliminating employer-based coverage and insurance requirements.

The potential for low turnout in the vacancy election adds an element of uncertainty — and a sense of rare opportunity among Republicans, who account for 31% of registered voters across the 1st Congressional District.

The voting district encompasses Albuquerque, rural Torrance County and other outlying areas that include the Indigenous community of Sandia Pueblo.

Registered Democrats dominated early voting, casting roughly twice as ballots as registered Republicans as of Friday.

Political science professor Lonna Atkeson, of the University of New Mexico, notes that both major-party candidates have delved into attack ads and negative campaigning — a sign that neither campaign is confident.

“Nobody’s felt confident enough that they can just ride it out in a positive way. So they’re both feeling a little stressed,” Atkeson said. “I mean, we never saw Deb Haaland do a negative ad.”

The Democratic National Committee brought Doug Emhoff, the husband of Vice President Kamala Harris, to New Mexico on Thursday to campaign on Stansbury’s behalf. At a rally with labor unions and other supporters, Emhoff acknowledged the thin margin Democrats have in Congress and said electing Stansbury would help to ensure the party's legislative initiatives make it to the president's desk.

Moores has repeatedly sought to link Stansbury to the so-called BREATHE Act proposal from the Movement for Black Lives that would divest taxpayer spending from traditional policing agencies and invest in alternative approaches to public safety. And he says Stansbury voted in 2019 for a bill that benefitted her consulting client.

Stansbury said she has stood by law enforcement in coordinating spending on police infrastructure and initiatives at the state Legislature. She has bashed Moores for opposing some pandemic relief measures while accepting $1.8 million in federal aid at his medical testing business.

Moores frequently invokes Latino family ties that date back to the region's Spanish colonial era, in a state where Hispanic pride is an enduring staple of politics.

Atkeson sees that as an overt push by Moores to win over socially conservative Latinos who might otherwise vote Democrat.

The 1st Congressional District has been controlled by Democrats since 2009.

The seat has consistently been a stepping stone to higher office for Republican and Democratic politicians, including now-deceased Interior Secretary Manuel Lujan Jr., former U.S. Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson, U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich and Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.

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