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最后的总统辩论显示了伊朗的政治分歧

2021-06-13 11:52   美国新闻网   - 

In this picture made available by Young Journalists Club, YJC, presidential candidates for June 18, from left to right, Mohsen Rezaei, Alireza Zakani, Mohsen Mehralizadeh, Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Saeed Jalili, Ebrahim Raisi, , and Abdolnasse

美联社

在这张由YJC青年记者俱乐部提供的照片中,6月18日的总统候选人

伊朗德黑兰——周六,伊朗举行了最后一场总统辩论,显示了伊斯兰共和国内部的政治分歧,强硬派称那些寻求与西方联系的人是“渗透者”,该种族的另外两名候选人引发了围绕德黑兰有争议的2009年的动荡选举。

分析师和与国家相关的民调显示,强硬派司法部长易卜拉欣·赖西(Ebrahim Raisi)在周五即将到来的投票中明显领先,德黑兰与世界大国的核协议破裂后,公众现在基本上敌视相对温和的总统哈桑·鲁哈尼。

但这并没有阻止鲁哈尼的前央行行长阿卜杜勒纳赛尔·赫马提(Abdolnasser Hemmati)严厉批评赖希,他一度从椅子上站起来,递给他一份名单,称名单上的人没有偿还国有银行的巨额贷款。他再次试图将赖希与前总统联系起来唐纳德·特朗普他单方面将美国从伊朗核协议中撤出的决定已经导致该国受到制裁。

“赖希先生,你和你的朋友们在特朗普的地盘上玩弄了你的极端主义政策,”赫马迪说。

就赖希而言,他称赫马蒂的举动是一种噱头,并表示他将确保政府回到核协议上来。

赖希说,这笔交易“不会由你来执行,它需要一个强大的政府来做这件事”。

周五的选举将由选民选出一名候选人来取代鲁哈尼,鲁哈尼的任期有限,不能再次参选。此次投票正值与西方关系紧张之际,谈判仍在继续,试图恢复核协议。在核协议中,伊朗同意限制铀浓缩,以换取经济制裁的解除。

这场辩论延续了前几场辩论的模式,强硬派将批评重点放在了作为鲁哈尼替身的哈马迪身上。强硬派阿里雷扎·扎卡尼甚至指责哈马迪通过向国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)共享金融信息犯下了“巨大的叛国罪”。强硬派的前革命卫队首领莫森·雷扎伊称鲁哈尼政府是由“渗透者”管理的

最近几天,赫马迪在接受美联社采访时表示,他可能愿意与乔·拜登总统交谈,他表示,他的政府不会将沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国视为敌人。他还警告说,如果不与更广泛的世界达成协议,伊朗经济将不会增长。

“如果强硬派掌权会怎么样?”海玛蒂问。“我告诉你,随着全球达成共识,将会有更多的制裁。”

尚不清楚辩论是否会影响选民的意见。与国家相关的伊朗学生投票机构显示,只有37%的伊朗成年人观看了第二场辩论。

还有一个更大的问题是选举的投票率。官员们过去曾指出,投票率是民众支持伊朗神权政府的标志。截至目前,ISPA估计伊朗5900多万合格选民中,投票率将达到41%左右。这将是自1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命以来的最低比例。ISPA的民意调查也显示赖希是领先者,有足够的比例来避免决选。

但与早期的辩论不同,赫马迪和一个不引人注目的改革派候选人莫森·迈赫拉利扎德(Mohsen Mehralizadeh)都提出了直接挑战政府的大规模抗议。在2019年11月全国范围内因国家补贴汽油价格上涨而举行示威后,迈赫勒里扎德曾要求赖希与伊朗最高领导人阿亚图拉阿里哈梅内伊进行干预,以赦免仍在示威的人。

这些示威活动以一名议员暗示7000人被捕而告终。大赦国际估计暴力造成的死亡人数至少为208人,人权组织称安全部队杀害了示威者。伊朗尚未对发生的事情做出任何明确的解释。

Raisi后来在回应Mehralizadeh时说,大多数被捕者“已被最高领导人赦免,除了那些与其他国家有关系或有其他问题的人”。他没有提供被赦免者和仍被拘留者的数字。

2019年的示威是自伊朗2009年总统选举以来最致命的一次,强硬派总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德在引发绿色运动抗议的有争议的结果中再次当选。

“在这12年里,我们的年轻人发生了什么,他们的口号从‘我的选票在哪里?“我不可能投票?””赫玛蒂有一次问道。

Final presidential debate shows Iran's political fissures

TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran held a final presidential debate Saturday that showed the fissures within the Islamic Republic’s politics, as hard-liners referred to those seeking ties to the West as “infiltrators” and the race’s two other candidates brought up the unrest that surrounded Tehran’s disputed 2009election.

Analysts and state-linked polling put hard-line judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi as the clear front-runner in Friday’s upcoming vote, with the public now largely hostile to the relative moderate President Hassan Rouhani after the collapse of Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers.

But that didn’t stop Rouhani’s former Central Bank chief Abdolnasser Hemmati from harshly criticizing Raisi, at one point getting up from his chair to hand him a list he described as naming individuals who haven’t paid back huge loans from state banks. He again tried to link Raisi to former PresidentDonald Trump, whose decision to unilaterally withdraw America from Iran’s nuclear deal has seen the country crushed by sanctions.

“Mr. Raisi, you and your friends have played in Trump’s ground with your extremist policies,” Hemmati said.

For his part, Raisi called Hemmati's move a stunt and said he’d make sure the government returns to the nuclear deal.

The deal “would not be executed by you, it needs a powerful government to do this,” Raisi said.

The election Friday will see voters pick a candidate to replace Rouhani, who is term limited from running again. The vote comes amid tensions with the West as negotiations continue to try and resuscitate the nuclear deal, which saw Iran agree to limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

The debate took on the pattern of the previous ones, with hard-liners focusing their criticism on Hemmati as a stand-in for Rouhani. Hard-liner Alireza Zakani went as far to accuse Hemmati of committing a “huge treason” by sharing financial information to the International Monetary Fund. Hard-line former Revolutionary Guard chief Mohsen Rezaei described the Rouhani government as being run by “infiltrators.”

Hemmati, who raised eyebrows in recent days after telling The Associated Press in an interview he'd be potentially willing to speak with President Joe Biden, said his government would not view Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as enemies. He also warned that without deals with the wider world, Iran's economy would see no growth.

“What will happen if the hard-liners have power?" Hemmati asked. "I tell you there is going to be more sanctions with global consensus.”

It remains unclear if the debates will affect voters' opinions. The state-linked Iranian Student Polling Agency suggested just 37% of Iranian adults watched the second debate.

There also remains the larger concern about turnout in the election. Officials in the past have pointed to turnout as a sign of popular support for Iran's theocratic government. As of now, ISPA estimates turnout will be around 41% of Iran's over 59 million eligible voters. That would the lowest percentage since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. ISPA polling also puts Raisi as the front-runner with enough of a percentage to avoid a runoff.

But unlike the earlier debates, both Hemmati and an inconspicuous reformist candidate named Mohsen Mehralizadeh brought up mass protests that directly challenged the government. Mehralizadeh at one point asked Raisi to intervene with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to pardon people still held after nationwide demonstrations in November 2019 over price rises of state-subsidized gasoline.

Those demonstrations ended with one lawmaker suggesting 7,000 people had been arrested. Amnesty International put the death toll from the violence at at least 208, with the rights group saying security forces killed demonstrators. Iran has yet to offer any definitive account of what happened.

Responding later to Mehralizadeh, Raisi said most of those arrested "have been pardoned by the supreme leader, except those who had relations with other countries or had other issues.” He offered no figures for those pardoned and those still detained.

The 2019 demonstrations were the deadliest since Iran's 2009 presidential vote that saw hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad re-elected amid a disputed result that gave rise to the Green Movement protests.

“What happened to our youth during these 12 years that changed their chants from ‘Where is my vote?” to ’No way I'm voting?'” Hemmati asked at one point.

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