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疫苗犹豫不决的美国人拒绝德尔塔变异风险

2021-07-04 15:12   美国新闻网   - 

对疫苗犹豫不决的美国人压倒性地拒绝了报道的冠状病毒三角洲变异,提出了7月4日全国大流行复苏的问题,拜登政府已经标志着全国长期公众的转折点健康考验。

在最新的美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报民意调查中,十分之三的成年人表示他们没有接种冠状病毒疫苗,并且肯定或可能不会接种。在这个群体中,73%的人认为美国官员夸大了delta变量的风险-79%的人认为他们感染冠状病毒的风险很小或没有。

总统乔·拜登卫生官员和其他人形容这种变种比其他毒株更易传染,对未接种疫苗的人来说有很大的风险。现在,它占该国新增病例的四分之一以上。

查看完整的结果、图表和表格。

但是政府通过接种疫苗来解决这个问题的计划似乎碰壁了。在这项由美国广播公司新闻制作的调查中,只有60%兰格研究协会,报告已接受至少一剂冠状病毒疫苗。虽然这低于官方估计(疾病控制和预防中心的数据为66.8%),但它证实了未能达到拜登的目标到7月4日至少有70%的人服用一剂。在那些没有接种疫苗的人中,越来越多的人——从4月份的55%上升到74%——表示他们可能或肯定不会接种疫苗。

党派分歧很尖锐,凸显了这种流行病的政治化:总体而言,只有45%的人认为政府准确描述了三角洲变异的风险;35%的人说夸大其词,18%的人不确定。几个团体尤其可能说这被夸大了,包括共和党人(57%)、保守派(55%)、福音派白人新教徒(49%)和农村居民(47%)。

就目前的情况来看,这场流行病的爆发还远远没有结束。在席卷全国15个多月后,只有16%的美国人表示他们的社区已经完全恢复。未来也不确定:虽然56%的人认为该国已经吸取了教训,将有助于它度过下一次大流行,但只有18%的人对此非常有信心。

拜登(姓氏)

就拜登而言,他在应对疫情方面获得了62%的广泛认可(包括三分之一的共和党人),但这不足以让他保持高位。总体而言,只有50%的美国人认可他的工作表现,这一相对较低的分数接近他任职6个月的关口。

拜登面临的挑战包括对南部边境犯罪和移民状况的不良评价,以及标志着当今政治的超党派性。

在美国广播公司、《邮报》和盖洛普此前的民意调查中,他的50%-42%的工作支持率是过去14位总统中第四低的,任职约五个月。拜登仅领先于杰拉尔德·福特(在他不受欢迎地赦免理查德·尼克松以及其他挑战之后)、比尔·克林顿(在经济困难的情况下,他的总统任期一开始就很不稳定)和唐纳德·特朗普(他从未获得大多数人的认可)。在经济强劲增长的时候,这是一个异常低的评级。

拜登对犯罪的支持率跌至38%周五报道-33%是关于墨西哥边境的移民情况。在党派方面,88%倾向于民主党的民主党人和无党派人士总体上认可他的工作表现;81%的共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士不赞成。

仅在党内追随者中——不包括独立人士——拜登在自己的党内获得94%的支持率,而共和党获得8%,这是一个86个百分点的党派差距。从克林顿总统任期开始,这一数字稳步增长,表明过去三十年来党派分歧加剧。

拜登的支持率与其水平相似在美国广播公司和《华盛顿邮报》4月份的一项民意调查中, 52%.各群体之间出现了一些变化——西班牙裔的支持率下降了16个百分点,中西部下降了12个百分点(在中西部,这次民意调查发现共和党和共和党的支持者人数超过了正常水平),自由派下降了7个百分点。其他微小的变化在很大程度上抵消了这些影响。

流行病

额外的结果显示了党派偏见是如何影响大流行的态度和行为的。93%的民主党人说他们要么已经接种了疫苗,要么肯定或可能会接种;这一比例骤降至49%的共和党人。独立选民在两者之间,占65%。

疫苗犹豫不决在共和党倾向的群体中也很突出,如保守派、福音派白人新教徒和受教育程度较低的成年人。虽然共和党人不太可能获得机会,但只有24%的人认为自己有感染的风险。

如下表所示,许多对疫苗犹豫不决的群体同时并不更倾向于认为自己感染的风险很高,而且比其他人更有可能认为delta变异体的风险被夸大了。

调查还显示,79%的黑人成年人比其他人更倾向于说他们要么已经得到了机会,要么会这样做;白人占68%,西班牙裔占70%。这是一个积极的信号,更高的疫苗犹豫在黑人中。

关于大流行的另一个结果指向美国的新冠肺炎。11%的人报告检测呈阳性;另有12%的人认为自己患有此病,但从未检测呈阳性。净总数为23%,明显高于共和党和倾向共和党的独立人士的31%。在声称从未接种过疫苗的人群中,72%的人已经接种过疫苗或可能会接种;在那些知道或认为自己患有这种疾病的人中,这一比例下降到60%。

投票

最后,在一个不相关的话题上,最高法院的判决周四发布显示了公众对投票的态度和法院支持亚利桑那州法律中的限制之间的对比。62%-30%的美国人认为,通过新的法律使合法投票变得更容易比制定法律使欺诈投票变得更难更重要。

党派和意识形态差异很大。89%的民主党人优先考虑让合法投票更容易,62%的无党派人士也是如此,而共和党人的比例降至32%。(尽管如此,这意味着三分之一的共和党人持有这种观点,这与国家党对这一问题的关注不一致。)同样,86%的自由派和70%的温和派优先考虑扩大合法投票,相比之下,保守派的比例为40%。

根据种族和族裔,58%的白人表示,让合法投票变得更容易比让欺诈性投票变得更难更重要。这一比例上升到82%的黑人,西班牙裔占67%。

方法学

这项美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报的民意调查于2021年6月27日至30日以英语和西班牙语通过座机和手机进行,随机抽取了907名成年人。结果有一个差额抽样误差3.5个百分点,包括设计效果。党派分歧是30-24-37%,民主党-共和党-无党派。

这项调查是由纽约市兰格研究协会为美国广播公司新闻制作的,由马里兰州洛克维尔的Abt协会进行抽样和数据收集。查看调查方法的详细信息这里。

Vaccine-hesitant Americans reject delta variant risk, posing questions for pandemic recovery: POLL.

Vaccine-hesitant Americans overwhelmingly reject the reported risks of thecoronavirusdelta variant, posing questions for the nation's pandemic recovery on a Fourth of July the Biden administration has marked as a turning point in the nation's long publichealthordeal.

Three in 10 adults in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say they have not gotten a coronavirus vaccine and definitely or probably will not get one. In this group, a broad 73% say U.S. officials are exaggerating therisk of the delta variant-- and 79% think they have little or no risk of getting sick from the coronavirus.

PresidentJoe Biden, health officials and others have described the variant as more contagious than other strains, and as such a substantial risk to unvaccinated people. It now accounts for more than a quarter of new cases in the country.

See PDF for full results, charts, and tables.

But the government's plan to address it through vaccinations looks to have hit a wall. Just 60% in this survey, produced for ABC News byLanger Research Associates, report having received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine. While that's below official estimates (66.8%, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), it confirms thefailure to meet Biden's targetof having 70% with at least one dose by July 4. And among those not vaccinated, a growing share -- 74%, up from 55% in April -- say they probably or definitely won't get a shot.

Partisan divisions are sharp, underscoring the politicization of the pandemic: Overall just 45% think the government is accurately describing the risk of the delta variant; 35% say it's exaggerating it, with 18% unsure. Several groups are especially likely to say it's being exaggerated, including Republicans (57%), conservatives (55%), evangelical white Protestants (49%) and rural residents (47%).

Even as things stand, emergence from the pandemic is far from complete. More than 15 months after it gripped the nation, just 16% of Americans say their community has recovered fully. Nor is the future assured: While 56% think the country has learned lessons that will help it through the next pandemic, a mere 18% are very confident of this.

Biden

Biden, for his part, enjoys broad approval, 62%, for handling the pandemic (including a third of Republicans) -- but that isn't enough to keep him aloft. Just 50% of Americans approve of his job performance overall, a comparatively weak score nearing his six-month mark in office.

Poor ratings on crime and on the immigration situation on the southern border are among Biden's challenges, as is the hyperpartisanship that marks today's politics.

His 50%-42% job approval rating is the fourth-lowest out of the last 14 presidents at about five months in office in polls by ABC and the Post and Gallup previously. Biden's ahead of only Gerald Ford (after his unpopular pardon of Richard Nixon, among other challenges), Bill Clinton (in a struggling economy and with an otherwise rocky start to his presidency) and Donald Trump (who never achieved majority approval). It's an unusually low rating in a time of strong economic growth.

Biden's approval ratings tumble to 38% on crime -- asreported Friday-- and 33% on the immigration situation at the border with Mexico. In partisan terms, 88% of Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party approve of his job performance overall; 81% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents disapprove.

Just among party adherents -- excluding independents -- Biden has 94% approval in his own party versus 8% from Republicans, an 86-point partisan gap. That's grown steadily from the Clinton presidency forward, demonstrating heightened partisan divisions the past three decades.

Biden's approval rating is similar to its levelin an ABC/Post poll in April, 52%. There are some shifts among groups -- a 16-point drop in approval among Hispanics, a 12-point drop in the Midwest (where this poll finds a larger-than-typical number of Republicans and GOP leaners) and a 7-point drop among liberals. Other slight shifts largely offset these.

Pandemic

Additional results show how partisanship has infected pandemic attitudes and behavior. Ninety-three percent of Democrats say they either have been vaccinated or definitely or probably will do so; that plummets to 49% of Republicans. Independents are between the two at 65%.

Vaccine hesitancy also stands out among Republican-leaning groups, such as conservatives, evangelical white Protestants and less-educated adults. And while Republicans are far less likely to get a shot, just 24% see themselves as at risk for infection.

As the table below shows, many groups that are vaccine hesitant are, at the same time, no more apt to see themselves at high risk of infection, and more likely than others to see the risk of the delta variant as exaggerated.

The survey also shows Black adults, at 79%, are more apt than others to say they either have gotten a shot or will do so; it's 68% among whites and 70% among Hispanics. That's a positive sign after earlier,higher vaccine hesitancyamong Black people.

One further result on the pandemic points to the extent of COVID-19 in the United States. Eleven percent report testing positive for it; an additional 12% think they had it but never tested positive. The net total is 23%, notably higher among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, 31%. Among people who say they never had it, 72% have been vaccinated or likely will do so; among those who know or think they've had it, this declines to 60%.

Voting

Lastly, on an unrelated topic, a Supreme Court decisionreleased Thursdayshows a contrast between public attitudes on voting access and the court upholding restrictions in an Arizona law. Americans, by a 2-1 margin, 62%-30%, call it more important to pass new laws making it easier to vote lawfully than to create laws making it harder to vote fraudulently.

There are sharp partisan and ideological differences. Eighty-nine percent of Democrats prioritize making it easier to vote lawfully, as do 62% of independents, dropping to 32% of Republicans. (Still, that means a third of Republicans hold this view, which is at odds with the national party's focus on the issue.) Similarly, 86% of liberals and 70% of moderates put a priority on expanding lawful voting, compared with 40% of conservatives.

By race and ethnicity, 58% of whites say it's more important to make lawful voting easier than to make fraudulent voting harder. This rises to 82% of Black people, with Hispanics in between, at 67%.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone June 27-30, 2021, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 907 adults. Results have a margin ofsampling errorof 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 30-24-37%, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York City with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Maryland. See details on the survey's methodologyhere.

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