纽约——当州立法机构开始重新绘制国会地图时，民主党人做好了灾难的准备，他们担心共和党在州议会中的主导地位将在未来十年内使权力远离他们。
但随着重新划分选区的进程进入最后阶段，这种焦虑开始缓解。
对民主党人来说，失去美国众议院十几个席位的最坏情况似乎不太可能发生。在一些拥有民主党立法机构的州绘制了自己的激进地图后，一些民主党人预测，典型的国会选区将从倾向于全国选票的右边转向与之匹配，从而结束了一种扭曲，这种扭曲使共和党在过去的五次众议院选举中获得了固有的优势选举南
“我们阻碍了他们不公正地划分选区以获得众议院多数席位的意图，”全国民主党选区重新划分委员会主席凯利·沃德·伯顿在谈到共和党时说。
这个国家的国会地图还要几个月才能解决。佛罗里达州等一些大州的共和党人尚未敲定拟议中的改革，这给了共和党最后一分钟寻求优势的机会。
但随着民主党控制的纽约州立法机构有机会从该州的两党委员会手中夺取绘制地图的权力，情况可能会在本周变得更加明朗。这几乎肯定会削弱自2010年上次重新划分选区以来一直存在的共和党优势。
各州首府的争夺不仅对民主党在今年的中期选举中保持众议院多数席位的艰难努力有影响。这将在未来十年影响华盛顿和州立法机构更广泛的权力平衡。
虽然共和党人说他们到目前为止已经实现了目标，但他们对民主党人试图扩大他们的席位数量感到惊讶聚会能赢。共和党采取了一种明显不同的方式，旨在支撑其弱势成员的选区，将竞争性席位转变为安全席位。
这部分是因为共和党人在2010年人口普查后已经通过积极的重新划分扩大了版图，当时他们控制了更多的州。现在，随着这些线被调整以符合去年发布的2020年人口普查数据，它们正在锁定收益，而民主党人则在冒险反击。
分析师表示，在一波选举中，民主党可能会在他们绘制的地图上失去更多的席位，因为他们的选民分布太窄。此外，如果政治联盟在未来几年发生变化，民主党认为触手可及的席位可能会突然消失。
追踪重划选区的布伦南正义中心的李立伟说:“共和党人给了自己很好的海啸保护。“但对民主党人来说，如果下一点雨，他们的房子就会被淹。”
民主党的推动正值该党在全国范围内禁止党派不公正划分选区的斗争失败之际——他们禁止这种做法的选举法案上周在参议院的一次共和党阻挠中死亡。李说，然而，民主党人仍然在他们控制的州不公正地划分选区，有时像伊利诺伊州那样激进，有时像新墨西哥和俄勒冈州那样相对轻微。
相比之下，专家表示，控制更多州的共和党人在德克萨斯州、北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州等地进行了不公正的选区划分。但共和党的俄亥俄州地图本月被该州最高法院驳回，民主党人希望北卡罗来纳州高等法院也能跟进该地区，这是该党日益乐观的部分原因。
民主党的下一个也是最大的机会在纽约，这将考验民主党愿意放弃多少权力来对抗不公正的选区划分。2014年，那里的民主党人表示，他们希望通过重新划分选区来消除党派偏见，他们支持一项投票措施，将这一进程交由两党委员会处理。但是州立法机关可以否决该委员会。2014年，它被民主党和共和党分开控制。现在民主党在两院都占有绝对多数。
纽约立法机构已经拒绝了该委员会绘制地图的首次尝试，该委员会的民主党人周一宣布陷入僵局，让立法机构有机会绘制自己的地图。
纽约共和党主席尼克·朗沃西说:“民主党领导层和那些在奥尔巴尼主持节目的极左分子，他们决心接管这个过程，以破坏委员会，并让奥尔巴尼的党内大佬绘制地图。”。“我认为，他们着眼于少数几个州，是为了让他们有机会保住多数席位。”
共和党只需要在11月的选举中净得5个席位，就能控制美国众议院。他们在代表187个众议院席位的州开始了重新划分选区的周期，而民主党只控制了75个席位。
资深选区重新划分顾问金布尔·布雷斯(Kimbrall Brace)表示，这意味着无论民主党如何反击，最终结果将不可避免地有利于共和党。“他们最终还是给整个计划注入了共和党的味道，”Brace说。
到目前为止，共和党在已经敲定的地图中获得了少数席位，但很难给出确切的数字，因为一半的州尚未正式采用地图。例如，如果民主党人咄咄逼人，他们可能会在纽约净赚4个席位，并在很大程度上抹去共和党在全国的优势。但是佛罗里达州的共和党人可以用不公正的选区划分来反击。
尽管如此，共和党人还是放弃了多个机会来进一步提高利润率。
在密苏里州，一些共和党州议员愤怒地表示，立法机构正在推进一项锁定现状的计划，而不是试图将民主党众议员伊曼纽尔·克里弗在堪萨斯城地区的席位转交给共和党。在印第安纳州，共和党人没有分割民主党众议员弗兰克·姆万代表的加里选区。
即使在佐治亚州，共和党人在民主党众议员露西·麦克巴斯拥有的亚特兰大郊区的一个席位上淹没了共和党选民，他们也不愿对她的民主党邻居卡罗琳·布尔多做同样的事情。取而代之的是，他们将民主党选民聚集到布尔多的选区，使其更加安全，这样其他共和党人的席位就不会受到威胁。
全国共和党选区划分信托基金执行董事亚当·金凯说，支持共和党现任者是该党的首要任务。他引用了德克萨斯州的例子，在那里，共和党绘制的地图让民主党的少数席位变得更加民主。这在共和党控制的23个国会选区聚集了更多的共和党选民，并将他们转变为安全席位。共和党人及其支持者在2020年的竞选周期中花费了2000万美元。金凯说，现在他们可以把钱转到其他地方。
金凯说:“这个周期的展开和我们预期的差不多——除了民主党人下了比我预期的更大的赌注。
与共和党相反，民主党一直渴望分散选民，甚至不惜牺牲自己的现任者。
最明显的例子是在内华达州，该党的制图师将自由派选民从众议员迪娜·提图斯曾经压倒性的民主党拉斯维加斯选区转移到由民主党众议员史蒂文·霍斯福德和苏西·李代表的两个相邻的摇摆席位上。这可能会让这三个席位在好的一年里安全地留在民主党手中，但会让它们在像目前这样的民主党艰难的选举周期中面临风险。
伯顿认为，像内华达州民主党人和其他地方的人做出的战术决定不是不公正的划分选区，而是简单地划定界限，让席位具有竞争力。
伯顿说:“我们不怕选民。"我们不害怕选民决定结果的地区。"
民主党民权律师、自由派组织“进步数据”(Data for Progress)的分析师乔尔·韦特海默(Joel Wertheimer)几个月来一直预测，重新划分选区将使典型的国会选区从全国选票的大约两个百分点向右移动，达到拜登2020年普选胜利的五个百分点。
他将其归功于民主党人心态的改变，他们愿意冒着更大的损失，最终更好地争取控制众议院所需的218个席位。
“我认为民主党人正在进行的计算是，我们在乎我们有180个还是190个席位吗?”韦特海默说。“我只想占多数。”
Democrats make surprising inroads in redistricting fight
NEW YORK -- Democrats braced for disaster when state legislatures began redrawing congressional maps, fearing that Republican dominance of statehouses would tilt power away from them for the next decade.
But as the redistricting process reaches its final stages, that anxiety is beginning to ease.
For Democrats, the worst case scenario of losing well over a dozen seats in the U.S. House appears unlikely to happen. After some aggressive map drawing of their own in states with Democratic legislatures, some Democrats predict the typical congressional district will shift from leaning to the right of the national vote to matching it, ending a distortion that gave the GOP a built-in advantage over the past five Houseelections.
“We have stymied their intent to gerrymander their way to a House majority,” Kelly Ward Burton, head of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said of the GOP.
The nation's congressional maps won't be settled for several more months. Republicans in some large states like Florida have yet to finalize proposed changes, giving the GOP a last-minute opportunity to seek an advantage.
But the picture could come into greater clarity this week as the Democratic-controlled New York state legislature gets a chance to seize map-drawing power from the state's bipartisan commission. That would almost certainly blunt the GOP advantage that has been in place since the last redistricting process in 2010.
The jockeying in state capitals has implications not just for Democrats' uphill effort to maintain a majority in the U.S. House in this year's midterm elections. It will affect the broader balance of power in Washington and state legislatures for the remainder of the decade.
While Republicans say they’ve achieved their goals so far, they're surprised at how much Democrats have tried to expand the number of seats theirpartycan win. The GOP has taken a markedly different approach by aiming to shore up its vulnerable members' districts, transforming competitive seats into safe ones.
That's in part because Republicans already expanded the map with aggressive redistricting after the 2010 census, when they controlled more states. Now, as the lines are adjusted to meet 2020 census figures released last year, they are locking in their gains while Democrats are taking risks to fight back.
In a wave election, Democrats could lose even more seats in the maps they have drawn because they spread their voters so thin, analysts say. And, if political coalitions shift in upcoming years, seats Democrats thought were within reach could suddenly disappear.
“Republicans have given themselves pretty good tsunami protection,” said Michael Li of the Brennan Center for Justice, which tracks redistricting. “But for Democrats, if it rains a little, their house is flooded.”
The Democratic push comes as the party has unsuccessfully fought to ban partisan gerrymandering nationwide — their elections bill barring the practice died in the Senate last week during a Republican filibuster. Li said Democrats, however, are still gerrymandering in states they control, sometimes aggressively as in Illinois, other times relatively lightly, as in New Mexico and Oregon.
In contrast, experts say Republicans, who control more states, have gerrymandered heavily in places like Texas, North Carolina and Ohio. But the GOP's Ohio maps were tossed out by the state Supreme Court this month, and Democrats are hopeful North Carolina's high court follows suit with the districts there, part of the reason for the party's increased optimism.
The next and biggest opportunity for Democrats is in New York, which will test how much power Democrats are willing to give up to fight gerrymandering. Saying they wanted to take partisanship out of redistricting, Democrats there in 2014 backed a ballot measure to put the process in the hands of a bipartisan commission. But the state legislature can overrule the commission. In 2014 it was divided between Democratic and Republican control. Now Democrats have a supermajority in both houses.
The New York Legislature already rejected the commission's first attempt at maps, and Democrats on the commission declared a deadlock on Monday, giving the Legislature the opportunity to draw its own maps.
“The Democratic leadership and those on the far left that run the show in Albany, they’re hellbent to take this process over to derail the commission, and to have the party bosses in Albany draw the maps,” said Nick Langworthy, chairman of the New York GOP. “I think that they looked at a handful of states to give them a shot to hold on to the majority.”
Republicans need only to net five seats in November's election to gain control of the U.S. House. They started the redistricting cycle controlling line-drawing in states representing 187 House seats while Democrats controlled only 75.
That means the final outcome will inevitably favor the GOP, no matter how hard Democrats fight back, said Kimbrall Brace, a veteran redistricting consultant. “They're ending up still putting a Republican flavor on the overall plan,” Brace said.
So far, the GOP has gained a handful of seats in the maps that have been finalized, but it's hard to put a precise number on how many because half of the states have yet to formally adopt maps. If Democrats are aggressive, for example, they could net four seats in New York and largely wipe out the GOP's national gains. But then Republicans in Florida could counter with a gerrymander.
Still, Republicans have passed up multiple opportunities to pad their margins even more.
In Missouri, some GOP state lawmakers are fuming that the legislature is advancing a plan that locks in the status quo rather than trying to turn Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-area seat to the GOP. In Indiana, Republicans did not split up the Gary-based district represented by Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan.
Even in Georgia, where Republicans flooded a seat in the Atlanta suburbs held by Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath with GOP voters, they balked at doing the same to her Democratic neighbor, Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux. Instead, they packed Democratic voters into Bourdeaux's district, making it safer so no other Republicans' seats would be at risk.
Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, said shoring up Republican incumbents is the party's top priority. He cites Texas, where the GOP-drawn maps make the few Democratic seats even more Democratic. That stacks up more Republican voters in the 23 GOP-held congressional districts and transforms them into safe seats. Republicans and their backers spent $20 million on races in the state during the 2020 cycle. Now, Kincaid said, they can direct the money elsewhere.
“This cycle has unfolded just about exactly as we expected it to — with the exception that Democrats have placed a bigger bet than I expected,” Kincaid said.
In contrast to the GOP, Democrats have been eager to spread their voters around, even at the possible expense of their own incumbents.
The starkest example is in Nevada, where the party's mapmakers moved liberal voters from Rep. Dina Titus' once-overwhelmingly Democratic Las Vegas district to shore up two neighboring swing seats represented by Democratic Reps. Steven Horsford and Susie Lee. That may keep all three seats safely Democratic in a good year, but puts them all at risk in a tough election cycle for Democrats like the current one.
Burton contended that tactical decisions like those made by Nevada Democrats and others elsewhere are not gerrymandering, but simply drawing lines to make seats competitive.
“We are not scared of the voters,” Burton said. “We are not scared of districts where voters decide the outcome.”
Joel Wertheimer, a Democratic civil rights lawyer and analyst for the liberal group Data for Progress, has predicted for months that redistricting will shift the typical congressional district from about two percentage points to the right of the national vote to the five-point margin of Biden's 2020 popular vote victory.
He credits it to a change in the mindset of Democrats willing to risk bigger losses for an eventual better shot at the 218 seats needed to control the House.
“I think the calculation that Democrats are making is, do we care if we have 180 or 190 seats?" Wertheimer said. “I just want to have the majority.”
