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了解经济制裁以及它们将如何影响俄罗斯

2022-02-24 14:04   美国新闻网   - 

作为对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京决定承认乌克兰分裂分子控制的顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克地区为“独立”国家的回应,美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)宣布对俄罗斯实施制裁,以遏制俄罗斯对乌克兰发动全面入侵。

拜登(姓氏)星期二称普京的决定是“俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的开始”,并警告称制裁可能会变得更加严厉。

拜登说:“在俄罗斯考虑下一步行动的同时,我们也为下一步行动做好了准备。”。"如果俄罗斯继续侵略,将会付出更大的代价,包括额外的制裁."

俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫(Sergey Lavrov)告诉俄罗斯国家电视台,俄罗斯已经“习惯”制裁,并认为无论莫斯科做什么,都会对其实施更多制裁。

“我们的(西方)同事试图将明斯克协议的失败归咎于俄罗斯,我们也理解,”他说,他指的是乌克兰和分裂分子在2014年签署的停火协议。“我们的欧洲、美国、英国同事,只要没有为所谓的惩罚俄罗斯穷尽一切可能,就不会停止,也不会冷静。”

什么是经济制裁?

经济制裁是由外交关系委员会定义因为出于外交和安全政策的目的而取消了传统的贸易和金融关系。制裁可以是全面的,禁止与整个国家的经济活动,也可以是有针对性的,阻止特定个人、企业或团体进行交易。

PHOTO: President Joe Biden delivers remarks on developments in Ukraine and Russia, and announces sanctions against Russia, from the East Room of the White House, Feb. 22, 2022, in Washington, DC.

德鲁·安格雷尔/盖蒂图片社

美国总统乔·拜登就乌克兰和俄罗斯的事态发展发表讲话..

这些限制是针对个人或实体的,防止他们与实施制裁的国家做生意。美国政府实施的制裁将个人或实体从美国金融体系中切断,这意味着他们不能再在美国做生意,他们在美国管辖下的所有资产都被冻结。

美国人和美国企业也被禁止与这些机构做生意,除非得到美国财政部外国资产控制办公室的授权。

制裁旨在削弱个人或实体在国际金融体系中履行基本职能的能力。美国政府根据外交政策和国家安全目标使用它们。

美国对俄罗斯实施了哪些制裁?

两家俄罗斯国有金融机构和五名与克里姆林宫有关联的精英受到了制裁。

目标金融机构是发展和对外经济事务银行(VEB)和Promsvyazbank公共股份公司(PSB)及其42家子公司。

根据美国财政部的说法,VEB对俄罗斯筹集资金的能力至关重要,而PSB对俄罗斯的国防部门至关重要。这两家机构及其子公司持有价值数百亿美元的资产。

美国财政部周二在一份声明中表示,“今天的行动限制了俄罗斯为国防相关合同融资和筹集新资金以资助其针对乌克兰的行动的能力。”。

根据财政部的数据,VEB拥有530亿美元的资产组合,是俄罗斯五大金融机构之一。VEB受到制裁的一些子公司包括俄罗斯和其他三个国家的银行和其他金融公司、电子元件生产商和一家煤矿集团。

它是俄罗斯主权债务的服务者、出口的融资者和投资项目的资金来源,贷款组合超过200亿美元。

VEB资助俄罗斯的国家经济发展,包括发展国内基础设施和其他对俄罗斯创收至关重要的行业的大型项目。

据美国财政部称,俄罗斯第八大银行PSB银行被政府指定为俄罗斯国防部和国防部门提供资金。它为俄罗斯近70%的国防合同提供服务,并为俄罗斯军事人员提供银行和个人金融服务。

PSB的17家子公司也受到了制裁,包括金融、科技和房地产相关实体。

财政部表示,有影响力的俄罗斯人及其家庭成员在普京的核心圈子里,被认为参与了俄罗斯政权的“盗贼统治”——包括PSB的董事长和首席执行官——也受到了制裁。

美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)说,“今天的行动是与我们的伙伴和盟友协调采取的,开启了摧毁克里姆林宫金融网络及其资助乌克兰和世界各地破坏稳定活动的能力的进程。”。

“我们继续监视俄罗斯的行动,如果它进一步入侵乌克兰,美国将迅速实施广泛的经济制裁,这将对俄罗斯的经济产生严重和持久的影响,”她说。

制裁会有效果吗?

实施的制裁并不是最严厉的选择。他们的目标是专门筹集资金的机构和俄罗斯国防部门,而不是普通俄罗斯人使用的机构。

“今天的措施将对俄罗斯金融体系产生一定的影响。VEB是一家重要的银行,但它不是为普通俄罗斯人提供银行服务的银行。前财政部负责制裁政策的官员朱莉娅·弗里兰德说。

她说,不立即实施最严厉的制裁是一种策略。

“我们的想法是,你不能一下子放弃所有的选择,”弗里兰德说,他现在是大西洋理事会的成员。“如果你现在把所有的火都吹了,那俄罗斯还有什么动力退缩?”

专门研究俄罗斯和东欧的制裁专家玛丽亚·沙吉纳(Maria Shagina)告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News),可能最具影响力的制裁将针对俄罗斯最大的银行,如覆盖俄罗斯金融系统一半以上的国有银行和能源部门。

沙吉纳说,对主要银行的制裁可能会影响普通俄罗斯人。对目前石油和天然气生产的制裁也可能产生影响,但美国和欧洲也可能出现价格飙升。沙吉纳说,如果未来的生产得到批准,影响会更小。

白宫官员曾表示,他们正在考虑针对俄罗斯最大的银行。专家告诉美国广播公司新闻,打击这些大型国有银行-俄罗斯储蓄银行,VTB,俄罗斯天然气工业银行和俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行-将标志着美国的反应的重大升级。

“有更多的银行在乌克兰经济中发挥着更大的作用,”前欧洲安全与合作组织(欧安组织)驻乌克兰特别监察团官员安德鲁·罗森(Andrew Lohsen)说。

他说,俄罗斯一直在为制裁做准备。Sberbank有据说在测试它的能力在没有西方软件的情况下生存。它还拥有数千亿美元的外汇储备和一个国家财富基金。

“自2014年以来,俄罗斯经济一直在努力保护自己免受制裁,”战略与国际研究中心的研究员罗森告诉美国广播公司新闻。“但最终,我担心的是,俄罗斯会迫使其公民勒紧裤腰带,继续在乌克兰建立自己的帝国。”

他质疑实施的制裁是否足以威慑俄罗斯。

“除了还击,还有什么能阻止普京吗?”他说

What to know about economic sanctions and how they will affect Russia

In response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to recognize the separatist-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine as "independent" states, President Joe Biden announced sanctions against Russia in an effort to deter it from launching a full-scale invasion into Ukraine.

Bidenon Tuesdaycalled Putin's decision "the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine" and warned that the sanctions could grow more severe.

"As Russia contemplates its next move, we have our next move prepared as well," Biden said. "Russia will pay an even steeper price if it continues its aggression, including additional sanctions."

Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov told Russian state TV that Russia was already "used to" sanctions and that it believes more sanctions would be imposed on Moscow regardless of what it does.

"That our [Western] colleagues are trying to push the blame on Russia for the failure of the Minsk agreements, we also understand," he said, referring to a truce Ukraine and separatists signed in 2014. "Our European, American, British colleagues won’t stop and won’t calm down as long as they haven’t exhausted their possibilities for the so-called punishment of Russia."

What are economic sanctions?

Economic sanctions aredefined by the Council on Foreign Relationsas the withdrawal of customary trade and financial relations for foreign and security policy purposes. The sanctions can be comprehensive, which prohibit economic activity with an entire country, or targeted, which block transactions by and with specific individuals, businesses or groups.

These restrictions are placed on individuals or entities and prevent them from doing business with the country imposing those sanctions. Sanctions put in place by the U.S. government cut off an individual or entities from the American financial system, meaning they can no longer do business in the U.S. and all their assets under U.S. jurisdiction are frozen.

Americans and American businesses are also prohibited from doing business with these institutions, unless authorized by the U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control.

Sanctions aim to impair the ability of the person or entity from being able to perform basic functions in the international financial system. They are used by the U.S. government depending on foreign policy and national security goals.

What sanctions did the US impose on Russia?

Sanctions were placed on two Russian state-owned financial institutions and five Kremlin-connected elite.

The financial institutions targeted are the Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs, which is known as Vnesheconombank (VEB), and Promsvyazbank Public Joint Stock Company (PSB), along with 42 of their subsidiaries.

According to the U.S. Treasury Department, VEB is crucial to Russia's ability to raise funds, and PSB is critical to Russia's defense sector. The two institutions and their subsidiaries hold combined assets worth tens of billions of dollars.

"Today’s action constrains Russia’s ability to finance defense-related contracts and raise new funds to finance its campaign against Ukraine," the Department of Treasury said in a statement Tuesday.

VEB has an asset portfolio of $53 billion, making it one of Russia's top five financial institutions, according to the Treasury Department. Some of VEB's sanctioned subsidiaries include banks and other financial firms, electronic component producers and a coal mining group in Russia and three other countries.

It is a servicer of Russia's sovereign debt, a financier for exports and a funding source for investment projects with a loan portfolio of over $20 billion.

VEB finances Russia's national economic development, including large-scale projects to develop domestic infrastructure and other industries critical to Russia's generation of revenue.

PSB, Russia's eighth-largest bank, was designated by the government to finance the Russian Ministry of Defense and defense sector, according to the U.S. Department of Treasury. It services nearly 70% of Russia's defense contracts and provides banking and personal finance to Russian military personnel.

Seventeen of PSB's subsidiaries were also sanctioned, including financial, technology and real estate-related entities.

Influential Russians and their family members who are in Putin's inner circle and believed to be participating in the Russian regime's "kleptocracy" -- including the chairman and CEO of PSB -- were also sanctioned, the Department of Treasury said.

"Today’s actions, taken in coordination with our partners and allies, begin the process of dismantling the Kremlin’s financial network and its ability to fund destabilizing activity in Ukraine and around the world," Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen said.

"We continue to monitor Russia’s actions and if it further invades Ukraine, the United States will swiftly impose expansive economic sanctions that will have a severe and lasting impact on Russia’s economy," she said.

Will the sanctions have an effect?

The sanctions put in place were not the most severe option available. They targeted institutions specific to raising funds and Russia's defense sector, instead of institutions that ordinary Russians use.

"The measures today will have a measured impact on the Russian financial system. VEB is a significant bank, but it’s not the bank that banks everyday Russians. It’s a little more niche," said Julia Friedlander, a former Treasury Department official who worked on sanctions policy.

She said not putting in place the most severe sanctions right away serve as a tactic.

"The idea is that you can’t blow all your options at once," Friedlander, who is now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, said. "If you blow all your fire now, then what is Russia’s incentive to hold back?"

Sanctions that could be the most impactful would target Russia’s largest banks -- like the state-owned banks that cover more than half of the Russian financial system -- and the energy sector, Maria Shagina, a sanctions expert who specializes in Russia and Eastern Europe, told ABC News.

Sanctions on major banks could impact ordinary Russians, Shagina said. Sanctions on the current production of oil and gas could also have an impact, but the U.S. and Europe could also see spikes in prices. If future production is sanctioned, it would be less impactful, Shagina said.

White House officials have said they are considering targeting Russia’s largest banks. Experts told ABC News that hitting those big state-owned banks -- Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank and Rosselkhozbank -- would mark a major escalation in the United States’ response.

"There’s a lot more banks out there that have a much larger role in the economy," said Andrew Lohsen, a former officer with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine.

Russia has been preparing for sanctions, he said. Sberbank hasreportedly been testing its abilityto survive without access to Western software. It also has hundreds of billions in foreign currency reserves and in a national wealth fund.

"The Russian economy has worked to sanction-proof itself since 2014," Lohsen, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told ABC News. "But at the end of the day, my concern is that Russia will just force its citizens to tighten its belts and will just proceed with this empire building project that it’s set for itself in Ukraine."

He questioned whether the sanctions put in place will be enough to deter Russia.

"Can anything deter Putin," he said, "short of return fire?"

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