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保守派尹锡燮当选韩国总统对美朝关系意味着什么

2022-03-10 12:48  ABC   - 

韩国首尔——经过一夜紧张激烈的计票,保守的人民力量党(People Power Party)的尹硕益(Yoon Suk-yeol)赢得了韩国总统大选。结果显示,这个国家的选票严重分裂,48.56%的选票投给了尹,而他的竞争对手、执政党民主党的李在明获得了47.83%的选票。

这场比赛已经被负面的竞选活动所破坏,这些负面的竞选活动受到一系列丑闻的困扰,这些丑闻涉及腐败、渎职,甚至是关于妻子和孩子的谣言。

尹的任期为五年,将领导亚洲第四大经济体,该经济体受到疫情的沉重打击,房价飙升,仍面临朝鲜核武器计划的威胁。他在外交政策上面临的最大挑战将是如何让自己的国家在美国和中国这两个最大的贸易伙伴之间日益加剧的竞争中进退两难。

PHOTO: In this March 2, 2020, file photo, South Korean presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party attends a televised debate in Seoul.

李中清/新华社通讯社,文件

在这张2020年3月2日的资料照片中,韩国总统候选人尹锡,...

作为总统,他可能会以更强大的美国联盟为中心,对朝鲜采取更强硬的立场,从而重振保守的外交政策。

“只有拥有强大的威慑力量,和平才能得以维持。只有确保先发制人的打击能力并表现出追求先发制人的意愿,才能避免战争。正如我们在乌克兰所看到的,一个国家的国家安全与和平不能靠纸和墨水来保护,”他在上个月的一次总统辩论中说。

作为一名政坛新人,尹花了27年的时间作为一名检察官,通过起诉大的政治人物而声名鹊起。

他的保守派政策专家团队可能会倡导一个军事上更强大的韩国,并在国防上进行大量投资。“随着朝鲜核威胁的加剧,尤其是在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后,韩国的国家安全危机感有所增强。延世朝鲜研究所的Bong Youngshik告诉ABC新闻。

尹增铉还表示愿意寻求在韩国部署美国THAAD反导系统,以威慑朝鲜的核威胁。

“他将要求朝鲜在任何谈判前实现无核化。尹没有寻求对话,而是打算部署更多的美国THAAD反导系统,并根据朝鲜的导弹威胁加强韩美联合军事演习首尔世宗研究所的研究员Cheong Seong-Chang告诉ABC新闻。

“在处理朝鲜问题上,尹政府将采取与文在寅政府不同的立场。他不会解除制裁,除非朝鲜在去核化方面迈出重大步伐,如果真的有任何进展的话。”韩国国家战略研究所外交与安全中心主任申百洙告诉美国广播公司新闻。

What conservative Yoon Seok-yeol's win as South Korea's president means for US-North Korea relations

SEOUL, South Korea -- Yoon Suk-yeol, of the conservative People Power Party, won the presidential race in South Korea after a bitter nail-biting vote count overnight. Results show a deeply divided country with 48.56% of ballots going to Yoon, and his rival Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party garnering 47.83%.

The race had been marred by negative campaigning plagued by a series of scandals involving corruption, malfeasance and even rumors about wives and a child.

Yoon, set to serve a five-year term, will lead Asia's fourth-largest economy which has been hit hard by the pandemic, surging home prices and still faces threats from North Korea's nuclear weapons program. His biggest foreign policy challenge will be to navigate his country stuck in between growing rivalry among two of its biggest trading partners, the U.S. and China.

As president he is likely to revive conservative foreign policies by taking a tougher stance against North Korea centered around a stronger U.S. alliance.

"Peace can only be maintained when there is strong deterrence. A war can only be prevented by securing a preemptive strike capability and showing the will to pursue it. As we have seen in Ukraine, a country's national security and peace cannot be protected by paper and ink," he said during a presidential debate last month.

A newcomer into politics, Yoon spent 27 years of his entire career as a prosecutor rising to prominence by prosecuting big political players.

His team of conservative policy specialists will likely advocate a militarily stronger South Korea with heavy investments in national defense. "A sense of national security crisis have heightened in South Korea as North Korea's nuclear threat intensifies and also especially after Russia invaded Ukraine. Yoon will make a rational decision," Bong Youngshik of Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies told ABC News.

Yoon was also open to seeking additional deployment of the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system into his country as deterrence from North Korea's nuclear threats.

"He will demand North Korea to denuclearize before any negotiations. Instead of pursuing dialogue, Yoon intends to deploy additional units of the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system and strengthen joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises in proportion to North Korea's missile threats." Cheong Seong-Chang, researcher at the Seoul-based Sejong Institute, told ABC News.

"Yoon's government will take a different stance from the Moon administration in dealing with North Korea. He won't be offering sanctions relief unless North Korea makes significant steps to denuclearize, if there happens to be any." Shin Beom Chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, told ABC News.

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