美联储周三将基准利率下调0.5个百分点，这是一个里程碑式的决定，标志着该国多年来抗击通胀的努力有所放缓，并可能为背负高成本的借款人带来缓解。
这央行首次降息自2020年以来，最近的一系列数据确立了降息的关键条件:通胀下降和就业增长放缓。
理论上，较低的利率有助于刺激经济活动和促进就业。周三下午，道琼斯工业平均指数在声明发布后立即飙升200点。
年代标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数也在消息传出后攀升。
周三在华盛顿特区举行的新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)将利率决定描述为央行政策的转变。
鲍威尔说:“我们政策立场的这种重新调整将有助于保持经济和劳动力市场的实力，并使通胀问题取得进一步进展。”。
鲍威尔补充说:“美国经济状况良好。”。“我们想把它留在那里。”
美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)周三预测将进一步降息。
根据FOMC的预测，到2024年底，利率将从目前4.75%至5%的水平再下降近0.5个百分点。预测显示，利率将在2025年期间再下降一个百分点。
随着时间的推移，降息减轻了借款人从住房抵押贷款到信用卡到汽车的各种负担，降低了贷款或再贷款的成本。裁员也提高了公司的估值，可能有助于提高股东的回报。
今年早些时候，抵押贷款利率达到了二十多年来的最高水平;而信用卡持有人的平均利率超过了美联储有记录以来的最高水平。埃德蒙兹发现，汽车贷款利率已飙升至2008年金融危机爆发时的水平。
降息将降低许多还款，为借款人带来收益。
然而，借款人不应指望美联储最初的降息会立即缓解，NerdWallet高级经济学家伊丽莎白·伦特(Elizabeth Renter)在决定之前的一份声明中告诉美国广播公司新闻。
“最初的降息不会产生立竿见影的效果，”Renter说。“我预计，许多消费者和企业主将把货币政策的这一变化视为希望的迹象。”
通胀率已从2022年约9%的峰值大幅放缓，尽管仍略高于美联储2%的目标。
与此同时，就业市场已经降温。低于预期的工作报告这引起了一些经济学家的担忧。
鲍威尔说:“随着我们在价格稳定方面取得进一步进展，我们将尽一切努力支持强劲的劳动力市场。”说上个月。
在此决定之前，降息的可能性几乎是肯定的，根据CME FedWatch工具，衡量市场情绪的指标。
然而，市场观察人士对美联储是将实施其典型的降息0.25个百分点，还是选择更大幅度的降息0.5个百分点存在分歧。该工具估计降息0.5个百分点的可能性为65%，降息0.25个百分点的可能性为35%。
本金资产管理公司(Principal Asset Management)首席全球策略师Seema Shah在一份声明中对美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)表示，降息0.5个百分点有可能过度刺激经济，并重新引发高通胀，而降息0.25个百分点可能会推迟避免衰退所需的经济启动。
沙阿补充说，在利率决定前夕，“市场预期很少被如此撕裂”。
周三的降息在11月大选前不到50天生效。
这一决定偏离了美联储在最近许多总统选举之前采取的政策方针路透社分析发现。据路透社报道，在2020年、2016年、2012年和2000年美国总统选举之前，政策利率在6至12个月内保持不变。
可以肯定的是，美联储表示，它根据经济状况做出决定，并作为一个独立的政府机构运作。
12月在华盛顿特区的新闻发布会上，当被问及2024年的选举时，鲍威尔说，“我们不考虑政治。”
Fed cuts interest rates a half point in landmark policy shift
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate a half of a percentage point on Wednesday in a landmark decision that dials back its years-long fight against inflation and could deliver relief for borrowers saddled with high costs.
Thecentral bank’s first rate cutsince 2020 came after a recent stretch of data had established the key conditions for a rate cut: falling inflation and slowing job gains.
In theory, lower interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 200 points in the immediate aftermath of the announcement on Wednesday afternoon.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also climbed following the news.
Speaking at a press conference in Washington D.C. on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the rate decision as a shift in policy at the central bank.
"This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and enable further progress on inflation," Powell said.
"The U.S. economy is in good shape," Powell added. "We want to keep it there."
The Federal Open Market Committee, a policymaking body at the Fed, on Wednesday forecast further interest rate cuts.
By the end of 2024, interest rates will fall nearly another half of a percentage point from their current level of between 4.75% and 5%, according to FOMC projections. Interest rates will drop another percentage point over the course of 2025, the projections indicated.
Over time, rate cuts ease the burden on borrowers for everything from home mortgages to credit cards to cars, making it cheaper to get a loan or refinance one. The cuts also boost company valuations, potentially helping fuel returns for stockholders.
Earlier this year, mortgage rates reached their highest level in more than two decades; while the average rate for credit card holders topped anything on record at the Fed. Interest rates for car loans have soared to levels last seen at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, Edmunds found.
Interest rate cuts will bring many of those payments down, delivering gains for borrowers.
However, borrowers should not expect immediate relief from the Fed's initial rate cut, Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, told ABC News in a statement prior to the decision.
"This initial rate cut will have little immediate impact," Renter said. "I anticipate many consumers and business owners will take the beginning of this change in monetary policy as a sign of hope."
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains slightly higher than the Fed's target of 2%.
Meanwhile, the job market has cooled. A weaker-than-expectedjobs reportin each of the last two months has stoked concern among some economists.
"We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability," Powellsaidlast month.
Prior to the decision, the chances of a rate cut were are all but certain, according to theCME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
Market observers, however, had been divided over whether the Fed will impose its typical cut of a quarter of a percentage point, or opt for a larger half-point cut. The tool estimated the probability of a half-point cut at 65% and the odds of a quarter-point cut at 35%.
A half-point cut risked overstimulating the economy and rekindling elevated inflation, while a quarter-point cut threatened to delay the type of economic jumpstart that may be required to avert a recession, Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, told ABC News in a statement.
"Rarely have market expectations been so torn" on the eve of a rate decision, Shah added.
The rate cut on Wednesday went into effect less than 50 days before the November election.
The decision deviated from the policy approach taken by the Fed prior to many recent presidential elections, aReutersanalysis found. Policy rates were left unchanged for six to 12 months before the 2020, 2016, 2012 and 2000 U.S. presidential elections, according to Reuters.
To be sure, the Fed says it bases its decisions on economic conditions and operates as an independent government body.
When asked about the 2024 election at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Powell said, "We don't think about politics."
